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Posts talking about corruption in Lebanon.

Posts talking about corruption in Lebanon.
Hezbollah:
  1. Here are some of the terrorist attacks they have done throughout the years and in different parts of the World [Multiple sources]
  2. Hezbollah critic & thawra activist Lokman Salim was assassinated in Nabatieh. He was missing since yesterday and today they found his body. [Other links are in the comments]
  3. Hezbollah representative interviewed about the current situation in Lebanon and Israel on Al-Jazeerah
  4. Lebanese Activist Hussein Nasrallah was arrested at the airport once he arrived in Lebanon because of his anti-hezbollah views
  5. "I was waiting for an answer from Hezbollah and an explanation, instead of accusing me of being an agent" Cardinal Al-Rahi
  6. Hezbollah Relation to Venezuela
  7. Seven years (2020)ago today Mohammed Chatah was assassinated. This was his last tweet 32 minutes prior to his murder.
  8. Documentary showing the brutality of harakat Amal and Hezbollah thugs on October 23rd, 2019.
  9. Hezbollah says it has doubled its guided-missile arsenal. 2020
  10. Posting about an Iranian general on the road leading to the airport
  11. Here are some proofs of Nassrallah protecting the corrupt leaders and some of the corruptions Hezbollah has done in Lebanon. [Multiple sources, mainly videos]
  12. Hezbollah supporters launched a campaign against journalist and political analyst Kassem Kassir who is considered close to Hezbollah because he criticized their relation with Iran. NBN deleted the episode from its website, while Kassir was forced to issue an apology
  13. Hezbollah launched an online attack against MP Slim Osama Saad. Hezbollah accused Saad of treason after he issued a statement condemning the killing and rejecting political assassination. Hezbollah supporters even called for Saad’s murder, considering him a spy for condemning the assassination.
  14. Despite the total lockdown & people having to close their businesses, hezbollah is celebrating the "41st anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran" in Baalbak.
Progressive Socialist Party:
  1. Here are some of the corruptions the Progressive Socialist Party have done [Multiple sources]
Future Movement:
  1. Here are some of the corruptions the Future Movement have done since the foundation of Solidere up until today [Multiple sources]
  2. Dailystar: Hariri is back from vacation(07/01/2021)
  3. Banks in Turkey start legal proceedings against Saad Hariri's company in Turkey for failing to repay a 5 billion USD debt. Hariri is facing extreme pressure from the Turkish government. This is the main reason he flew to Turkey and met president Erdogan. Politics
  4. FPM used its power to reopen a warehouse, for one of its own members, that was closed by the police for selling subsidized materials on the black market for premium prices. This warehouse and its products were bought with a loan from BDL
Lebanese Forces:
  1. Here are some of the corruptions that the Lebanese Forces have done throughout the years [Multiple sources]
  2. Samir Geagea was found guilty of the assassination of Dany Chamoun and his entire family.
  3. WikiLeaks: Geagea Informs Sison that He Has 10,000 Fighters Ready to Combat Hizbullah
  4. The history of the Lebanese Forces is full of terrorism equivalent to Al Qaeda
  5. Leaks reveal Geagea pleaded with Saudi Arabia for money to finance the bankrupt party
Free Patriotic Movement:
  1. LBC-A look into Gebran Bassil's performance as Foreign Affairs Minister
  2. US imposes sanctions on Lebanese politician Gebran Bassil
  3. Gebran roast on CNN
  4. Wikileaks Wire showing discussions Michel Aoun had in 2007 with the US Embassy about an Israeli peace deal and the disarmament of Hezbollah, among many other things
  5. President Khara Aoun considers that the demand for an international investigation into the Beirut Port case aims at wasting time.
  6. Michel Aoun becomes the first Lebanese president to ignore greeting Muslims on their Eid
  7. Full Interview: Former Lebanon Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil | CNBC International
  8. Bassil's armored Audi car was a gift from Marada's Suleiman Franjieh, who got it from Bashar al-Assad
  9. Claudine Aoun, daughter of president Michel Aoun owns a marketing company that has contracts with MANY entities in the government, basically getting paid without doing any job.
  10. Here are some of the corruptions the FPM party have done throughout the years [Multiple sources]
  11. Wikileaks cable about how Aoun views Tripoli and other regions. (English Version in the comments)
  12. Michel Aoun Photoshopping His Meetings
  13. Tracy Chamoun, Lebanon's resigned ambassador to Jordan: Gebran Bassil stands as a barrier to forming a government as a form of punishment for the Lebanese
Amal:
  1. Nabih Berry saying exactly the opposite of what he's doing today
  2. Nabih Berry saying the opposite
  3. The Parliament Militia
  4. The daughter of Berri's cousin is having a huge bachelorette party with musicians, big cakes, and others.
  5. Documentary showing the brutality of harakat Amal and Hezbollah thugs on October 23rd, 2019.
  6. Here are some of the corruptions the Amal Movement have done throughout the year Discussion [Multiple sources]
  7. Hezbollah supporters launched a campaign against journalist and political analyst Kassem Kassir who is considered close to Hezbollah because he criticized their relation with Iran. NBN deleted the episode from its website, while Kassir was forced to issue an apology
Riad Salameh:
  1. Offshore Firm Tied To Lebanon Central Bank Governor Sold Stock to Bank He Regulates
  2. Our BDL Governor: بنك "عودة" شريك الحاكم وصاحب الأرباح الأكبر من هندساته
  3. The politicians and the banks engineered the economy for their own benefit. While banks smuggled politicians and big depositors' fortune, the Lebanese people are begging to get their own money. Here are all that is wrong in the banking sector and how the leaders are working with them [Multiple sources]
  4. Switzerland and EU officially asked the Lebanese authorities to help in a forensic investigation regarding transfers (400m USD) related to Central Bank governor Riad Salameh, Bank Intra, Casino Du Liban, and MEA
  5. Around $1.5 billion has been allocated to the humanitarian sector to support Lebanon in 2021 alone. BDL wants that hard currency channeled through it to control inflation, so rather than dispersed to beneficiaries in USD it will give it out in LBP using the rate $1=6240 LBP
Other government organizations and institutions:
  1. The judicial formation was always influenced by the sectarian parties and Lebanon’s political and sectarian system has long interfered in the judiciary’s work
  2. Here are some of the corruptions of high ranking officials and footages of ISF and LAF using excessive force on people [Multiple sources]
  3. Report about Judicial Corruption, on LBC (12/12/2020)
  4. Minister Tariq Majzoub: The laptops that were said to have been damaged by the explosion turned out to be sold by the company that was supposed to store them. These laptops were meant to go to students in public schools and universities for free.
  5. Here's a video with context about the stolen laptops that the education minister talked about yesterday.. Listen to TechnoMania representatives giving various excuses: no Microsoft license, damaged in Beirut port blast, Insurance... In short: 2400 laptops were stolen and sold!
Internal Security Forces (ISF):
  1. Protesters in Lebanon are targeted by French military-grade tear gas
  2. Here are some of the corruptions of high ranking officials and footages of ISF and LAF using excessive force on people [Multiple sources]
Elections:
  1. All the sectarian parties invested in their political campaigns through deceptive electoral programs, blatant lies, false promises, bribes, small services, and government employment to win people's votes. Here are the promises of the main political parties to fight corruption throughout the years. [Multiple sources]
Religious Institutions:
  1. The sectarian leaders always seek protection behind religious authorities and all the politicians use religion and sectarianism for political purposes. Most of the high ranked religious figures are involved in politics. Here are many political interventions and statements of some religious figures [Multiple sources]
  2. Stories of mothers fighting for their children’s custody and defying the injustice and corruption of Ja’afari courts. This video shows mothers’ battle for custody rights and how they face off the fatwa upheld by the courts
Banking Sector:
  1. Banks are still involved with Qard Al-Hassan
  2. The politicians and the banks engineered the economy for their own benefit. While banks smuggled politicians and big depositors' fortune, the Lebanese people are begging to get their own money. Here are all that is wrong in the banking sector and how the leaders are working with them [Multiple sources]
All:
  1. Lebanese Officials Reportedly Attempting to limit Probe into Beirut Blast From The Start
  2. Ex-Minister of Interior Marwan Charbel confesses that they used to send police and security forces dressed as civilians into protests and gatherings and ask them to start destroying and sabotaging to discredit the peaceful protests that are going on.
  3. Emigration(Joke)
  4. The gates of Hell are beginning to open. Lebanon is being torn apart between political parties who still seem to be oblivious to what's happening around them.
  5. Ogero chairman, Imad Kreidieh, gets paid a higher salary than the USA President. He employed, as a favor, tens of high-level consultants in Ogero, most of them while they were still students, and have no connection with the telecommunication sector(some are theater major)
  6. A once of a lifetime internet speed.
  7. "Immigration" turned into an obsession for the Lebanese... 70% of immigrants are between 25 and 35 years old!
  8. Beirut Municipality: Fake Afforestation with 5 million dollars
  9. Almost 1,000 protestors were arrested since 17/10/19, including 58 minors. Some arrests included violent kidnappings and residential raids. Oppression in Lebanon during this period is equal to that of Sudan and is 3x that of Algeria.
  10. How the parties control YOU!
  11. Beirut
  12. Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni: "The political forces that I belong to refuse to sign with any forensic auditing company". Forensic auditing firm Kroll was set to review every transaction at Lebanon's Central Bank and expose the corruption of many politicians
  13. Jad Ghosn explains how politicians use sectarianism to improve their own conditions while deteriorating the conditions for their own sects.
  14. The reason why almost all traffic lights are not functional in Beirut. Spoiler: Corruption - and they won't be functional any time soon.
  15. Political elite EXPOSED! we were also able to hack into documents of the political elite and found some shady stuff to share with you.
  16. Why we still don't have a government.
  17. Lebanese foreign minister requests secrecy of Swiss judicial investigation
  18. Subsidized picon is being sold in Nigeria.
  19. Corruption, incompetence and mismanagement are the reason behind Lebanon's collapse. While it is necessary to implement reforms and create a rescue plan, the sectarian leaders are instead negotiating to divide their governmental shares. Here are some corruption and incompetence in different sectors [Multiple sources]
https://preview.redd.it/lwwxpnoply761.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a38f1c67bbf37f0f4ed49d3800d3687f4f7ad5c1
submitted by DarthLebanus_1 to lebanon [link] [comments]

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https://finance.yahoo.com/video/sinclair-broadcast-ceo-partnership-ballys-154619580.html
submitted by Ebaydin to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[Thu, Jan 07 2021] TL;DR — This is what you missed in the last 24 hours on Reddit

worldnews

Angela Merkel: Trump shares blame for US Capitol storming
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New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern: Democracy "should never be undone by a mob"
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Mexican president offers to vaccinate unlawful migrants in U.S.
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news

Congress has certified the 270 Electoral College votes needed to confirm Joe Biden's presidential election win.
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Warnock, Ossoff win in Georgia, handing Dems Senate control
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Police remove barriers to mob storming US capitol, taking selfies
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science

Before the pandemic, one-third of US households with children were already “net worth poor,” lacking enough financial resources to sustain their families for 3 months at a poverty level. Their savings are virtually nil, and they have no financial cushion to provide the basics for their children.
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US politicians who engage in “negative partisanship”, referring to hostile, nonsubstantive rhetoric about an opposing party or statements emphasizing defeats of partisan opponents, are not rewarded with higher evaluations from citizens. Voters don’t want representation focused around polarization.
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For young adults in the 18–24-year-old age group, pornography was the most commonly endorsed helpful source about how to have sex, as compared to other possible options such as sexual partners, friends, media, and health care professionals. This was more likely for males and heterosexuals.
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space

NASA wants to deorbit the International Space Station before the end of this decade. Axiom plans to replace the International Space Station and potentially save NASA billions per year.
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Galaxy-Size Bubbles Discovered Towering Over the Milky Way. For decades, astronomers debated whether a particular smudge was close-by and small, or distant and huge. A new X-ray map supports the massive option.
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Earth is whipping around quicker than it has in a half-century
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Futurology

‘Incredible’ gene-editing result in mice inspires plans to treat premature-aging syndrome (Progeria) in children
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New Atlas: New catalyst converts common plastic waste into fuels (77%) and wax (15%)
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U.S. law sets stage for boost to artificial intelligence research
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AskReddit

Couples therapists, without breaking confidentiality, what are some relationships that instantly set off red flags, and do you try and get them to work out?
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What were weird myths you thought about sex as a kid?
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What’s the greatest mental health tip you’ve gotten?
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todayilearned

TIL in 2013, a 9 year-old British girl passed through Turkish customs with a toy passport with gold teddy bears on the front that identified her as a unicorn. Her mother accidentally handed over the passport that the girl had made for her toy unicorn, and the customs offіcer accepted and stamped it
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TIL Ants sleep by taking about 250 one minute naps throughout their day. It totals just under 5 hours of sleep. This allows for 80% of their colony to be awake, working and prepared at any given moment.
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TIL Jerry Seinfeld is banned from the New York soup stall that he used for the basis of The Soup Nazi episode of Seinfeld. Weeks after the episode aired, Seinfeld went in for lunch, and chef Al Yeganeh asked him to leave, unhappy with the moniker the show had given him.
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dataisbeautiful

[OC] Numerical Simulation of Traffic Jam Formation
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[OC] types of alcoholic beverages consumed in terms of pure alcohol content by country, 2018
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[OC] By applying a collector's curve to large marine animals (>2m) I’ve determined that there are six sea monsters left to discover. Video explanation and sources in comments.
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Cooking

My cooking challenge of 2020 : ended up making 150 different recipes from 114 different countries.
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I have plain vanilla ice cream in the freezer. What ice cream toppings can I make quickly out of ordinary ingredients?
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Eggs-hate them but I want to like them
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food

[Homemade] Brioche Doughnuts
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[Homemade] Smoked Beef Back Ribs
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My take on Tonkotsu Ramen with spicy umami bomb. [homemade]
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movies

New images of Dave Bautista and the cast of Zack Snyder's 'Army of the Dead' - A group of mercenaries plot a heist on a Las Vegas casino during a zombie outbreak.
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Ray Fisher’s Cyborg Written Out of ‘The Flash'; Role Won’t Be Recast
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Netflix’s next big science fiction movie is set to debut next week: Outside the Wire, a military science fiction thriller starring Damson Idris as a soldier assigned to assist a classified military robot (played by Anthony Mackie) in a war zone.
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Art

If I can't have her... , Adam the Creator, Digital, 2021
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Trump-O-Matic, Mark Bryan, Oil on Canvas, 2016
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United Screams of America, Me, 2021
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television

Stephen Colbert's Live Monologue for Jan. 6, 2021
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Aziz Ansari's Master Of None to return. Season three to be shot in London
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WandaVision has been officially rated TV-PG
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pics

How it started and how it ended
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Domestic Terrorism
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The Capitol police removes disabled people as they protest healthcare changes, in 2017.
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gifs

Police letting Trump rioters into Capitol
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A relaxing bath for a stressful times
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BBQ
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educationalgifs

A great white shark may grow and use 20,000+ teeth in its lifetime. Also, it has 5 rows of teeth at any given time & will never run out of teeth because if one is lost, another spins forward from a coil-like tooth reservoir of backup teeth in the jaw and spins forward to replace the old one.
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mildlyinteresting

This McDonalds hasn't been renovated since the 80's/90's.
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Two toned deer I saw this morning
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I found a cake vending machine
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interestingasfuck

During the four years of the Civil War, Ft. Stevens was the closest the confederates got to Washington. During the insurrection on the US Capitol building today, supporters of Donald Trump carried the confederate battle flag through the Capitol as they committed attempted sedition.
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The door to the dining area of the Alcobaça Monastery in Portugal was made narrow so that monks who got too fat were forced to go into fasting.
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Street artist Kevin Lee called his work "the invisibility of poverty".
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funny

My little sister bought accessories for her cat. This is the result. Thug Lyfe
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Giddy up!
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How are we feeling today?
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aww

My mum made this for me!
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I present to you the best dance move the turtle shake
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Kitten focusing on the important stuff
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Random Subreddit of the day: asexuality

These are its 3 top posts of all time:
I’m 62. It’s time.
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this is so much better
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Representation matters
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submitted by _call-me-al_ to RedditTLDR [link] [comments]

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Winspark Casino 5€ no deposit and 50 free spins (register)

Winspark Casino 5€ no deposit and 50 free spins (register)

Winspark Casino Free Bonus and Gratis Spins
Join Winspark Casino today and play best online scratch cards and slot games for free! For this purpose, click on the promo link below and collect 5€ free money or 50 free spins as a no deposit bonus. Then, play, win and keep all your profits!
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Promotions and Bonuses at Winspark Casino

The promotions page at Winspark Casino is quite crowded, and it is not just due to the No Deposit Bonus and Welcome Bonuses. This casino has a whole lot more in store for players who show up on a regular basis for the thrill of real money gambling.
Here are some options you can take advantage of at this casino:
  • Seasonal Offers - During festive seasons like Easter, the casino runs special promo events that come with the promise of thousands of Dollars/Euros in cash prizes. They usually come with a minimum wagering requirement and cool features like unlimited rolls.
  • VIP Loyalty Program - The casino automatically enrolls you into the VIP program when you register and create a new account. This means that you can start earning bonuses almost immediately. Every $10 wager earns you one VIP point. Collect more and head to the VIP store to cash in with bonuses, rewards and more.
  • Leaderboard Tournaments - These tournaments give you some extra incentive to play your favorite slots at Winspark Casino. With every spin, you can race ahead of your fellow players at the casino and win exciting prizes!
  • Special Bonuses for Deposits - When you make a deposit using specific methods like Sofort, Skrill, or Paysafecard, Winspark casino rewards you with matching bonuses. The multiplier on these can range from 15% all the way to 25% or more!
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Winspark Casino Overview

‘Winning Happens Here’, happens to be the casino’s motto and if you are fan of instant-win lottery games, then WinSpark is sure to get your attention. In the online casino business, new does not always mean better, especially when it comes to new casino brands. Older casinos tend to have a reputation that is easy to track online. Besides, if they have survived for a long time, they must be doing some things right to attract players.
The same can be said about Winspark casino. Often, you only need one glance to identify a casino that is more than five years old - they often have sizeable gaps on both sides of the screen. Winspark is one such casino.
The background graphics on the welcome page is certainly something to look at - a small colorful planetoid floating in blue space, its surface dotted with landmarks like the Eiffel Tower, Big Ben, and the Coliseum. It grabs your attention, in a good way.
The casino claims to have been launched in 2018, but we suspect that to be only partially true. Online research indicates that the casino has been around since 2008. They probably revamped and relaunched the website in 2018, which is quite usual given the speed at which casino gaming technology is progressing these days.
The casino is among the smaller operations out there, owned by a Cypriot firm and operating out of Curacao with a gaming license from that Caribbean territory. In terms of the targeted audience, Winspark Casino invites players from across the globe. This is also validated by the number of international currencies accepted here - eight in total.
As for the software platform, the casino uses the lesser known Netoplay software, which is also from Cyprus. The games selection is quite limited, as they only stock games developed in house by the software provider. But since Netoplay casinos are few and far between, the gaming experience is bound to be a change from the usual set of games you see at many multi-vendor casinos out there. They also have a decent RTP of around 95%.
One gripe we have with the casino is regarding RNG testing - according to the casino website, the games' RNG testing is carried out in-house. They should seriously consider outsourcing it to credible third-party labs if they want players to trust them.
The casino offers both a welcome bonus as well as a no deposit bonus for new players. This is not something we see often these days and full marks to the Winspark casino team for giving new players these freebies. The promotions department is also surprisingly deep, filled with several contests, and other bonuses.
Winspark is a no download, instant play casino with full support for mobile devices and tablets. This puts them squarely among the new breed of online casinos which are using HTML5 technologies to provide a smooth casino experience, right out of ordinary web browsers.
Problem gambling is to casinos what alcoholism is to liquor brands. Casinos like Winspark are trying to make a difference here, offering exclusion measures and guidelines to help players avoid this fate. The casino has also partnered with organizations like GamCare to provide support to problem gamblers.
Some important facts about Winspark Casino:
  • As is usually the case with online casinos, Winspark only accepts players who are 18+ only.
  • Only players from countries where online gambling is legal can use the casino.
  • Residents of some countries that include, and is not limited to the USA, Israel, France, South Africa, the UK, are not permitted to register due to country restrictions.
  • Players are requested to complete KYC procedures and provide ID proof before receiving any winnings.
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Software and Games at Winspark Casino

Winspark casino is quite an oddity in the world of online casinos when it comes to software and games. White label casinos are nothing new in this business. Major software companies package readymade casinos to operators who can then decorate these with unique themes and attract customers.
While Winspark is a white label casino, what makes it unique is the software provider - a Cypriot company called Netoplay. They are one of the smaller brands in this business. And as they were established in 2008, they also happen to be one of the youngest.
The main advantage of the Netoplay platform is its stability. As only a handful of casinos use this platform, it is also quite rare. Some players might like the change of pace they find here when compared to the multi-vendor casinos teeming with hundreds of the same games from the same software providers.
The platform is quite capable and can offer instant play online across multiple device types and operating systems. It is quite the modern online casino software that we have here. It is also backed by industry-standard protection software, including the latest SSL 128-bit encryptions for maximum security.
The casino does not have any download client, nor does it need one in this day and age. The instant play casino is plenty good for most client needs. They could develop Android and iPhone apps in the future though, to better attract mobile-only gamers.

Software Provider

Often, the casino software platform allows the operator to add games from other vendors to the casino. Sadly this is not the case at Winspark Casino. You only have the Netoplay bouquet of games to choose from.
Don't get us wrong - the games are quite decent. But they cannot be compared to big budget titles from the best companies like Netent and Microgaming. And there is only a handful of them, to begin with.

Games

Virtually the entire games collection can be seen right at the welcome page of the casino. Since there are only around forty games in total at this casino, you don't have to scroll down endlessly to check out each of them.
Contrary to some reviews online, Winspark casino does not cater to the needs of every type of casino player out there. They do try hard, with a not too shabby collection of different game genres, but there are many missing categories in this casino game library.
Card games, table games, and live dealer games are conspicuous by their absence. These games like blackjack and baccarat require advanced software and game studio capabilities, which are not available to a small firm like Netoplay.
The following four categories are available at Winspark, with these games:
  • Top-Rated - Here you will find all the games across genres that are played most often at the casino. Top titles include Club Rouge, Rich Man's World, Secrets of the Jungle, Lucky Cauldron, and Wild Leprechaun.
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$DKNG Makes No Sense to Me - Lots of Thoughts

DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either.
Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings’ stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I’m already in on the long term bear case with Nov ‘20, Dec ‘20 and Jan ‘21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is.
For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post.
The company’s Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let’s look further at revenue growth though.
I found it very interesting that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job.
The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus’ impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ‘19, that’s big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech’s drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half.
Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I’m going to ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps.
At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven’t been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn’t high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50.
I know what you’re going to say: “this is all about more states allowing sports betting.” Fine, let’s look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings’ current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let’s us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Don’t get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog.
Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price.
Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings’ DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill’s outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other.
One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the “IPO” is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain.
Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season delays, lockup ending in October
Just giving my two cents on how I’m looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going.
Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price.
submitted by TheGlove2ReignMan to investing [link] [comments]

40 Best Songs of All Times About Poker, Dice, Cards and Addiction

40. Go Down Gamblin’ - Blood Sweat and Tears

Released in 1971, Go Down Gamblin’ by Blood Sweat and Tears is a song describing a gambler who is “born a natural loser.” He never wins, no matter what game he plays, but, he doesn’t feel like a loser. As the song goes – “Cause I've been called a natural lover by that lady over there, Honey, I'm just a natural gambler but I try to do my share.”

39. Gambler - Madonna

Gambler is a song written and played by Madonna, made for the film Vision Quest. Although the song reached the top 10 in the charts of the UK, Australia, Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, and Norway, Madonna performed it only once on her 1985 The Virgin Tour. It’s a catchy song, we suggest you play it as you spin the reels of some of your favourite retro online slots.

38. The House of the Rising Sun - The Animals

Our list wouldn’t be complete without the 1964 hit song - The House of the Rising Sun by The Animals. Everybody knows the famous lines ”My mother, she was a tailor, sewed these new blue jeans, my father was a gamblin' man way down in New Orleans.” This single had a major success and made it to the top 10 songs on mainstream rock radio stations in the USA. Likewise, the hit was featured in the video game Guitar Hero Live.

37. The Winner Takes It All - ABBA

Whether we admit it or not, we all love at least some songs played by the very well-known Swedish pop group, ABBA. According to some sources, Bjorn Ulvaeus wrote the 1980 hit song The Winner Takes It All which was inspired by his divorce to his fellow band member, Agnetha Fältskog. The winner takes it all is a sort of a comparison to a divorce (especially the part ”I've played all my cards and that's what you've done too, nothing more to say, no more ace to play”), where one of them is the winner and the other one is left with nothing. And things are just the same when it comes to gambling, so we’ve decided to put the song on our list.

36. Shape of my Heart - Sting

We’re all aware of the fact that our gambling behaviour can be influenced by certain types of music and that's because online gambling and music go hand in hand. So, we suggest you start playing your preferred games with one of everyone’s favourite songs by Sting called The Shape of my Heart. It was released in 1993 and used for the end credits of the film Léon. In one of his interviews, Sting explained that the lyrics of the song tell the story of a card player who places bets not in order to win but to figure out something that’s been bothering him - “some kind of scientific, almost religious law.”

35. All I Wanna Do Is Play Cards - Corb Lund

Well, I guess I really oughta be makin up songs but all I wanna do is play cards. I know it's dumb and sick and wrong but all I wanna do is play cards. Got the studio booked in Tennessee, and my record producer's callin me, the tape will roll in just three weeks and all I wanna do is play cards.” Does it sound familiar? It’s a 2005 hit by Corb Lund called All I Wanna Do Is Play Cards, once you hear it you’ll be playing it on repeat.

34. Gambling Man - The Overtones

When you’re falling in love, it’s perfectly normal to feel like you want to gamble everything just to attract that person’s attention to notice you and love you back. Well, Gambling Man is a lively 2010 song that tells a story of a guy fascinated with his love, so he places all his bets on her, as the song goes - “I played my hand, I rolled the dice, now I'm paying for my sins, I got some bad addiction.” This time, he feels that this love affair is different from any other – “Baby, it's you, yeah, yeah, that's right.” The song was released in 2010 and has been popular ever since.

33. Poker Face - Lady Gaga

Although the Poker Face song is more about the game of romance rather than the game of poker, the catchy refrain that starts with “Can't read my, no he can't read my poker face” kinda reminds us of winning at the tables, so we couldn’t skip it this time. Released in 2008, the song achieved worldwide success, topping the charts in the USA, the UK, Australia, Canada and several European countries.

32. Little Queen of Spades - Robert Johnson

Moving on to the Little Queen of Spades, a song title by the American blues musician Robert Johnson who recorded the song in 1937 and first released it in 1938. The first version of this gambling-themed song has a playing time of 2:11, whereas the second one lasts 4s longer (2:15), and is considered an alternate take and first appeared on Johnson's album The Complete Recordings, in 1990.

31. Train of Consequences - Megadeth

Another great song Train of Consequences is the title created by Megadeth, released as the first single from their sixth studio album Youthanasia in 1994. The song was later included on their compilation albums and its music video was the 26th most played video on MTV. There’s this part of the song “No horse ever ran as fast as the money that you bet, I'm blowing on my cards and I play them to my chest” – which is about a person’s gambling problem, who realises something’s wrong with this lifestyle, but it still hunts him down. Could be just the thrill, but he just can’t stop playing.

30. Gambler - Whitesnake

Released on the album Slide It In (1984) and appearing on the compilation album Gold (2006), Gambler is the song by the British hard rock band Whitesnake. These words may sound familiar - “No fame or fortune, no luck of the draw, when I dance with the Queen of Hearts, a jack of all trades, a loser in love, it's tearing my soul apart”. And in case you’ve never heard it, we think you should give it a shot, the chances are you’re going to love it!

29. Gambling Man - Woody Guthrie

Now here’s one single from 1957 - Gamblin' Man. The song was taped live at the London Palladium and published as a double A side, with Puttin' On the Style. Reaching #1 in the UK Singles Chart in the summer 1957, it was “the last UK number 1 to be released on 78 rpm format only, as 7' vinyl had become the norm by this time.” Written by Woody Guthrie and Donegan, this gambling themed song was produced by Alan Freeman and Michael Barclay.

28. Roll of the Dice - Bruce Springsteen

According to Songfacts, Roll of the Dice was the first Springsteen’s song he didn’t write by himself. In fact, E Street Band’s pianist Roy Bittan helped with the music, while Springsteen was in charge of the lyrics, starting with – “Well I've been a losin' gambler, just throwin' snake eyes, Love ain't got me downhearted. I know up around the corner lies, My fool's paradise in just another roll of the dice.” After he broke up the E Street Band in October 1989, Springsteen wrote lyrics for the Roll of the Dice (with two other songs) and liked them to the point where he began writing and recording more songs.

27. Queen of Diamonds - Tom Odell

Here’s one song about a gambling fanatic who’s trying to satisfy his own addiction but also someone else, hoping it’s going to save him. Released in 2018, Queen of Diamonds is Tom Odell’s song from the album Jubilee Road, based on the local characters that inspired this British songwriter to include the whisky-soaked gamblers who regularly visited one betting shop.

26. The Angel and the Gambler - Iron Maiden

Now, this song may divide Iron Maiden fans and it’s most probably because of its repetitive lyrics that can be a bit annoying. The release we’re talking about is The Angel and the Gambler. Truth be told, the melody in general is very catchy and, even a bit similar to The Who in some moments. As the song was released in 1998 while Blaze Bayley was its frontmen, it’s missing the well-known high-pitch vocals from Bruce Dickinson.

25. Ramblin' Gamblin Man - Bob Seger

We’re moving on to a rock single from 1978 - Ramblin' Gamblin Man by Bob Seger. The author meets an old acquaintance, a professional gambler who happens to be a swagger. As such, he attracts people’s attention whenever he bets. Putting so much of his faith in the cards (rather than in people), he walks away every time, just before avoiding loss. Along the way, the narrator realises that, if you scratch beneath the surface, you’ll find he’s a very cynical man, who will never change.
Another gambling-themed song worth mentioning by Bob Seger is Still The Same.

24. Blow Up The Pokies - The Whitlams

Blow up the Pokies is the next song on our list, played by The Whitlams. It is the second single by the group from their 4th studio album, Love This City. Released in the year 2000, the song became a hit and made it to number 21 on the ARIA Singles Chart. According to several resources, the lyrics written by singer Tim Freedman were inspired by the destruction he saw in original Whitlams bassist Andy Lewis's life, due to his gambling addiction.

23. A Good Run of Bad Luck - Clint Black

Now here’s one 1994-song packed with gambling-related terms. As you listen to A Good Run of Bad Luck, recorded by American music artist Clint Black, you'll have a bit of fun as you try identifying what all these gambling terms mean. The song is a bit fast and is about falling in love by using gambling metaphors. The main character is willing to spend a lot of money to win his special lady over and, although he has had a period of bad luck, he is not giving up – “I've been to the table, and I've lost it all before, I'm willin' and able, always comin' back for more.

22. When You’re Hot, You’re Hot - Jerry Reed

Jerry Reed won a Grammy for the song When You’re Hot, You’re Hot which was released in 1971. Most people remember it as it was a major hit, ranked as number 1 in the country charts, also making its way up the Pop Top 40. It’s an enjoyable novelty song about the ups and downs of the gambling life, about one’s winning streak caught in an illegal game of Crap.
Country star Jerry Reed also came up with a version The Uptown Poker Club in 1973.

21. Lawyers, Guns and Money - Warren Zevon

Next one up - Lawyers, Guns and Money is a song by Warren Zevon, the closing track on his album Excitable Boy, released in 1978. An edited version of this song was distributed as a single and found itself on the A Quiet Normal Life best of compilation on the CD and LP. The song goes like this - “I went home with a waitress the way I always do, how was I to know she was with the russians, too? I was gambling in Havana, I took a little risk Send lawyers, guns, and money Dad, get me out of this, hiyah!

20. The Lottery Song - Harry Nilsson

According to the man in the 1972 pop-rock song The Lottery Song by Harry Nilsson, there's more than one way to get to Vegas. Addressing his lover, the narrator mentions a few different options for buying a ticket and going to Sin City – “We could win the lottery we could go to Vegas,” and “We could wait till summer, we could save our money” as well as “We could make a record, sell a lot of copies, we could play Las Vegas.”

19. Casino Queen - Wilco

Now here’s one black-humoured gambling-themed song, released in 1995 and titled after a casino. Featuring a dirty electric guitar, Casino Queen was composed by an American songwriter, Jeff Tweedy, who wrote this song after playing a game in a riverboat casino accompanied by his dad. Inspired by the event, the author wrote: “Casino Queen my lord you're mean, I've been gambling like a fiend on your tables so green.

18. Have a Lucky Day - Morphine

Another song on our list that you simply must check out starts like this: “I feel lucky, I just feel that way, I'm on a bus to Atlantic City later on today. Now I'm sitting at a blackjack table and swear to God the dealer has a tag says, "Mabel." Hit me, hit me! I smile at Mabel, soon they're bringing complimentary drinks to the table.” Check it out yourself - it’s called Have a Lucky Day by Morphine.

17. Kentucky Gambler - Merle Haggard

Written by Dolly Parton and released in 1974, Merle Haggard’s Kentucky Gambler is another song on our ultimate gambling playlist that you should pay attention to. It’s about a miner from Kentucky who leaves his family to gamble, under the bright lights of Reno. Unsurprisingly, his winning streak comes to an end, and he loses all his winnings. All broke, he decided to return back home only when he arrived, he found out his wife was involved with someone else.

16. The Jack - AC/DC

The next song on our list will give you some adrenaline boost, for sure. It goes like this - “She gave me the queen, she gave me the king, she was wheelin' and dealin', just doin' her thing, she was holdin' a pair, but I had to try…” Sounds familiar? This song from the 1975s is called The Jack and is played by AC/DC and there’s no way you can skip it.

15. Blackjack - Ray Charles

Moving on to something a bit different - a melody that blackjack lovers can listen to as they play is Ray Charles’ Blackjack. Apart from being a good quality song from 1955, it carries an important message with an emphasis on how brutal the game of blackjack can be. Some sources say that Ray Charles wrote it after beating T-Bone Walker at a blackjack game session.
Yet another Ray Charles’ famous song about gambling is called a Losing Hand.

14. Ooh Las Vegas - Gram Parson

Ooh, Las Vegas, ain't no place for a poor boy like me”... is a song-into for Ooh Las Vegas which was written by Gram Parsons and Ric Grech. It was first released by Gram Parsons with Emmylou Harris in 1974. Playing this song would be perfect for the beginning of the road trip (i.e. to Las Vegas), especially if you have the energy to sing along.

13. The Stranger - Leonard Cohen

Published in 1968 and performed by Leonard Cohen, The Stranger appears in the The Ernie Game movie about a man released from a mental asylum. More appropriately, it is the perfect opening song in the 1971 Western McCabe & Mrs Miller, in which Warren Beatty plays a gambler. As you listen to this song (without watching the movie), it makes you see fascinating images of card games, smoky dreams, and concepts of risk versus safety.

12. Desperado - Eagles

Written by Glen Frey and Don Henley, Desperado song is one of The Eagles’ greatest hits from their 1973 album of the same name. The song features a classic tune while the ballad tells the story of a lone wolf imprisoned by his loneliness. As for the lyrics, they have loads of card references mentioning the queen of diamonds, the queen of hearts, and so on.

11. Huck's Tune - Bob Dylan

The next song on our list is about the risks of poker, money, and relationships, which are precisely what the movie Lucky You is all about. Does it ring a bell? That’s right, this 2007 song is called Huck’s Tune and is performed by Bob Dylan. Each of us can all relate to lines "You push it all in, and you've no chance to win, you play 'em on down to the end." Play the song and you’ll enjoy more than 4 amazing minutes of Bob Dylan.
Likewise, Bob Dylan recorded Rambling, Gambling Willie and Lily, Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts, both excellent and both inspired by gambling.

10. Four Little Diamonds - Electric Light Orchestra

A song by the British rock band Electric Light Orchestra Four Little Diamonds was released in 1983 and found itself on the album Secret Messages. The single wasn’t so popular in the US, being only 2 weeks on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, at number 86, and number 84 in the UK. This song refers to the singer’s cheating lover who tricked him out of a ring which had 'four little diamonds' on it.

9. You Can't Beat The House - Mark Knopfler

Moving on to our next choice for the day, You Can’t Beat the House. It’s the third song on the Get Lucky studio album released in 2009 by British singer-songwriter and guitarist Mark Knopfler. The album and the songs received favorable reviews with the album reaching the top three positions on album charts in Denmark, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and Poland. The singer’s divine voice combined with beautiful music and lyrics goes like this – “You can't bear the house, you can't bear the house, tell the man somebody, you can't beat the house.

8. Deck of Cards - Don Williams

Deck of Cards is a recitation song that tells the story of a soldier who gets caught while playing cards in church and then faces a sentence from a superior officer. The soldier defends his case, explaining he wasn't about to deal a hand of poker, but was rather confirming his faith with the cards. Performed by T. Texas Tyler, the song managed to become a major hit in the 1940s and 1950s. Also, Wink Martindale had an even bigger hit with his 1959 cover, with a successful version by Don Williams featuring Tex Ritter and Buddy Cole.

7. Gambler’s Blues - B.B. King

First recording of the song Gambler’s Blues by B.B. King was in 1966, and it was released in 1967. The song appears on the album Back in the Alley (1970). Some say gambling and blues go hand in hand, so if you (gambling fans) haven’t heard it, listen and see for yourself.

6. Tumbling Dice - Rolling Stones

One of our favourite songs on the list is Tumbling Dice, written by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards. It tells the story of a gambler who can’t remain faithful to any woman. Being released in the 1970s and featuring a blues boogie-woogie rhythm, the song was and still is one of the greatest singles of all time.
Rolling Stones also recorded Casino Boogie, and it’s from their 1972 album, Exile on Main St.

5. Luck Be A Lady - Frank Sinatra

The next song on our list is about a gambler who hopes that he will win a bet, the outcome of which will decide whether he is able to save his relationship with the girl of his dreams. You probably know what song we’re talking about; it’s called Luck be a Lady released in 1965 and performed by one of the most popular musical artists - Frank Sinatra.

4. Deal - Grateful Dead

Next one up is the song Deal. It was first performed by the Grateful Dead in 1971, as a regular part of the repertoire through their 1970's tour. Although being less common to the fans during the 1990s, the band continued to perform it. The singer opens with the message: “Since it cost a lot to win and even more to lose you and me bound to spend some time wondering what to choose,” that later kicks off with a chorus: “Don't let your deal go down...
Loser is another song first performed by the Grateful Dead in 1971 as well, heavily played during 1971 and 1972.

3. Ace of Spades - Motörhead

Ok, the next song is loaded with some great gambling verses like "The pleasure is to play, makes no difference what you say, I don't share your greed, the only card I need is the Ace of Spades" will definitely set you in the right mood for hitting some winning combinations. Released in 1980, the song was inspired by slot machines that the lead singer Ian Fraser “Lemmy” Kilmister played in London pubs.

2. Viva Las Vegas - Elvis

As soon as you start playing the second song from our playlist “Viva Las Vegas,” you’ll probably picture a huge casino and a great gaming atmosphere. Performed by the legendary Elvis Presley, the 1964-released song brings the glamour of the city, and its beat will get you in the mood for some serious gameplay. This song was written for the movie of the same name starring Elvis Presley, in which he plays a race car driver waiting tables at a hotel to pay off a debt. There’s this famous scene when he performs this song at the talent competition alongside many showgirls.

1. The Gambler - Kenny Rogers

Performed by the legendary country singer Kenny Rogers, The Gambler song is our number 1 - it's full of some betting advice that are relevant today, even though it was released more than 40 years ago, in 1978. Here’s how it goes… “If you're gonna play the game, boy you gotta learn to play it right, you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.” These classic chorus lines were told from the first-person perspective inspired by a conversation the author had with an experienced poker player on a train. Written in the form of poker metaphors, Schlitz wrote the tune in honor of his late father.
Johnny Cash is also among other musicians who recorded The Gambler in 1978, on Gone Girl.

What do you think? Which one is your favourite?

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What do you think of my DD on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
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