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gamblingstocks: a place to gamble on gambling
This subreddit is for active discussion of gambling stocks. In particular, gambling stocks uniquely primed to explode in the wake of upcoming government/legalization. See: Bill C-218 & Bill C-13. Bill C-13 currently scheduled for reading in Canadian Federal Government on February 19, 2021.
4️⃣2️⃣0️⃣ POT STOCK 4️⃣2️⃣0️⃣ 💎🤚 ROCK SOLID HOLD 💎🤚 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Sundial Growers produces high quality cannabis products in their individual controlled modular grow rooms at a 470,000 sq ft state-of-the-art Health Canada licensed facility in Olds, AB, eh. With a large portfolio of brands, they have products at every price point from low to high-end, flower to topicals and a crap ton of money. In the beginning of February, they announced the completion of a $0.75 public offering for a cool $100 milly. Simultaneously, they launched another offering. BuT tHaT's GoInG tO DiLuTe tHe MaRkEt! ThE sToCk HaS A 1 BiLlIoN dOlLaR fLoAt. Doesn’t that fucking suck? No, it doesn’t, and I’ll tell you why: it’s good. These offerings allowed these guys to load up on mad cash and sky's the limit with this new found cash money 420 swag 69. They are sitting on something like $600+ milly. That is a lot of fucking money. So what are they going to spend it on? Acquisitions? Expansion? Whatever it is, I trust the fuck out of their management team. "Sundial's current balance sheet and liquidity enable management to focus on delighting consumers while providing significant optionality to participate in North American consolidation," said Sundial's CEO, Zach George. Fuck yea George, delight me. more rockets🚀🚀🚀🚀 Last week, this thing was in delisting territory, making this a tough gamble even at the low $1 ranges. Fast forward, we're like 1 day away from compliance, aka that is no longer a problem. brushshoulderoff We saw some crazy movement last night and premarket this morning, potentially shorts covering some naked calls, as we saw a lot of call action at $1.50, $2, $2.50, and $3 this week. Then, we opened and saw some major sell-off. That’s fine, because we got to see how this reacted to this once volume leveled out. Good news, we’re chilling around $3 which is where we will likely do battle today. Now, we’re also seeing people go full HAM on $5 2/19 calls for the next leg of our journey. ALL OF THIS MOVEMENT IS HAPPENING WITHOUT THE CATALYST. That's why I'm 💎🤚 AF RN. You know what else excites me about this banger? When I go to purchase this stock in Fidelity, do you know what happens? MESSAGE DW34-FUCKING-02: The price of this security has been highly volatile. Consider the potential risk of loss and closely monitor any purchase you make. Uhh, can you say BONER JAMZ 2021? $SNDL TO THE MOON BABY 🚀🌙 But don’t take my word for it. Seriously, don’t. I’m not a financial expert and this is not advice, merely my meaningless pea brained opinion. Do your own research and shit. Or don’t, I’m not your fucking dad. POS: 2000 @ $1.11 and added 13 $5 C 2/19 on today's dip Edit: Market is red and esp weed. Add when sad. I'm down here scoopin up dips and buyin value contracts.
Was curious to see where you guys believe the stock is going number wise. It is hovering around 5$ with huge gains over the past little while. I know single game betting may become legal in Canada soon. So what are your guys thoughts?
StonksWorks will be a software to make wallstreetbets impossible to shut down and easier to research sentiment, first version will be released on monday (January 31th, 2021)
I'm building a free and open source software that will enable people to easily search and build metrics using the posts and comments on /wallstreetbets. Basically, the software will analyze the posts and comments, let people easily understand the sentiment of the community and take positions accordingly. Github: https://github.com/steve-care-software/products Here's why: In the past, the stock market was heavily used by professional stock traders like hedge funds, equity funds, etc. Now a days, technology has evolved so that retail investors can easily trade in the market. This brings people that calculate things differently in the market. Professional stock traders are used to analyze the market and try to discover future prices using past data. When a company doesn't have good fundamentals, professional stock traders are used to short the stock and kill the company. However, sometimes, companies have plans to turn their company around. Retail investors are a bit more emotional: they are the customers of the companies and sometimes are emotional when it comes to company they like. Recently, GameStop (GME) decided to turn their company around. They had a lot of debt, very few professionals wanted to lend them the money they needed to execute their plan. However, when they released to the public, retail investors liked. They wanted GameStop to execute that plan and be customers in their updated company. Hedge funds decided, however, that the plan was not as good. They didn't listened to the future customers of GameStop, the retail investors, and decided to short the GME stock. Retail investors continued to buy, while hedge funds continued to short it. Hedge funds gambled so much that they executed short position at 140% of the available float, thinking that retail investors would sell due to the pressure. This never happened. Retail investors kept buying. It created a short squeeze and made the GME stock sky rocket. People in mainstream media are currently talking that the /wallstreetbets community manipulated the market. In my book, they are saying that because they don't understand that the stock markets are currently evolving. In the future, hedge funds will need to analyze the sentiment of future customers when a company with bad fundamentals try to spin their company. However, I think regulators will try to shut the WSB community down. Therefore, I want to protect it by making it impossible to shut down. On top of that, I also want to build the tools to further help retail investors understand the market and protect the company they like. If you like the idea, please share this subreddit with people on reddit. Ill update every day with my progress. If you have any question, please ask them. Ill be around every 4 hours during day time. I'm located in Quebec, Canada.
I've noticed a lot of new people in here asking some obvious questions to those of us who have been around for a while. So to generate new and better discussion I want to answer some of these frequently asked questions.
1. Where can I find information about these companies I hope you haven't bought any of these names before you did research and before you even know where to start looking. First place you should go to is Google and type in " investor relations". If this is too much you can shorten it to " IR". It should be the first link in every case and if it's not then that's already a red flag. Read about the companies products, how they operate. Read their MD&A, read their financial statements from the last few years. Maybe look at product reviews or review the products yourselves. Watch interviews with the CEO. Find out what makes this company unique, operationally effective and worth buying for consumers. You should quickly figure out that APHA is NOT a cannabis company, but a consumer packaged good company. They own Cannabis, Alcohol, and Pharma businesses (plus hemp after the TLRY merger). Doing your DD should take time. Don't be in a rush to buy the stock because it's run up 100% in the past few weeks. If you look at the chart, 2 years ago these companies rocketed upwards to ATHs, you could have waited another year or so and bought lower. Are we taking off to the moon and never coming back? Probably not.
2. Where can I buy these companies? Are they on Robinhood? First, ditch Robinhood a get a broker that won't go under in the next few years. Pay a trading fee if you need to but just buy enough stock to make the tade worth it. Don't buy $20 of Apha on investorline or you're immediately taking a 50% haircut with a $9.95 trading fee. Second, you can buy these companies on most/all legit trading platforms. I won't name them all but all of the big Canadian banks self-directed platforms have them. I'm not American so I can't speak for them but I've heard good things about Fidelity and Vanguard. Oh, did you also mean what exchanges can I buy them on? Big Canadian names are on the major exchanges like TSX and Nasdaq. Smaller names are on the CSE and OTC markets. US names can't list on the big exchanges because your government decided cannabis was bad like 50 yrs ago so those are only on the OTC and CSE markets. MSOs is a fund on the NYSE (I think) that hold some sort of swaps on the US names but I personally just buy the names myself. Again, do you own DD, even if you're buying a fund.
3. This stock went up x% in the last y time, should I buy it or wait for a dip? This ties into point 1 above, so if you've done your DD you should know if the company is worth what it is priced at. The market does wacky shit all the time (see Gamestop, morgage crisis, great depression) so it'll go up and down, but generally follow along the trajectory of the company profits. If the profits increase by 5x in 10 years, the stock price will do the same. If you're asking for predictions in the short term consult a fortune teller, roll dice or find one of those pets that pick stocks.
4. What stocks should I buy? How do you feel about x company? See 1, then 3. I can't tell you what companies are good in the space better than your own research. Especially since you don't know what my plans are. Maybe a poster says buy "Apha" but they're only holding until the TLRY merger closes. They'll never tell you when they're selling so if it drops you'll be scratching your head. Do a bunch of research on the main players, then some smaller guys and figure out what you can stomach. Maybe a cannabis ETF is right for you or maybe 1 or 2 strong picks or maybe you like gambling with penny stocks. Just do your own DD. Popular names and good places to start are:
Canadian names: APHA/TLRY, CGC/WEED, ACB, CRON
US names: CURA, TRUL, CL, GTII
5. Should I buy leaps or warrents or calls or puts? Also what are derivatives? If you have to ask, no. I'm also not going to explain because I don't know either.
6. I bought Gamestop at all time highs and I sold and lost 90%, is cannabis good? No, kindly take your paper hands and go back to WSB. We don't want investors in this space who sell at the first 10% drop after an 100% run, or after a 50% drop from ATHs, or after a short report from some short selling parasites. We hold because this is a once in a lifetime opportunity of a product moving from the illicit market to the legal market. There is no need to build up demand, merely move the consumer from buying from their dealer to our dealer. This will take time, regulatory changes, perception changes and most importantly, your patience.
7. Any small companies you can reccomend? Being a small company in this space comes with distinct disadvantages. Price compression in Canada will kill small/medium sized growers since they can't achieve postive margins without scale. Add in some mould on even 1 harvest and the losses have destroyed your business. On the US side, regulations are weird and vary across different states. Califonia is a dumpster fire, Florida requires you to be vertically integrated, and other states have limited licences for retail and grows. Think about how hard it would be to get a foothold in Florida as a small business. Think about how valuable a licence is in limited licence states. Maybe your small player is looking for licences and gets NONE. That's devastating. Curaleaf misses 1 licence? Not great, but they have other applications in multiple states. If you're buying a small company or penny stock, know the risks and do extra DD. THERE HAVE BEEN COMPANIES THAT ARE FRAUDULENT IN THIS INDUSTRY. COMPANIES HAVE GONE BANKRUPT IN THIS INDUSTRY. Canntrust was legit but had fake walls with more plants behind them. Ignite was run by Dan Bilzerian. YOUR PICKS ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM GOING BANKRUPT. Let me repeat the most important point: THERE HAVE BEEN COMPANIES THAT ARE FRAUDULENT IN THIS SPACE.
8. I wanna buy because of US legalization! When will Cannabis be legalized in the US? Asking for a specific date is dumb and assuming that it's going to pass is dumber. Yes, Democrats control all 3 branches of government and yes, they are more cannabis friendly than Republicans and yes, some Republican states also recently legalized cannabis. THIS DOES NOT MEAN LEGALIZATION WILL PASS THIS YEAR, OR EVEN UNDER THIS CONGRESS OR PRESIDENT. Some Republicans in the house voted for cannabis regulation under Trump and some Democrats voted against it. We have no idea how the senate will vote and it doesn't take many votes to torpedo any legislation. If you know the US Cannabis space right now you'll know that descheduling and getting access to lower tax rates, access to capital and ability to cross state lines are some of the most important regulatory changes that need to happen. Look up the 208e280e tax code. Seriously do it. Full legalization is nice but also unlikely.
If I've missed any questions post them below. and I'll add them.
TL:DR: Do your own DD. Start here:
Canadian names: APHA/TLRY, CGC/WEED, ACB, CRON
US names: CURA, TRUL, CL, GTII
EDIT: Adding in some resources for those who want more. These are my own resources I use/used to get started. If you have resources to share please do so but don't self promote you ding dongs.
Resources New to Investing:
Most people think Warren Buffet is the GOAT but Peter Lynch is also a GOAT in his own right and a better speaker.
People also think you need to read through all of "The Intelligent Investor" before you can start investing but that's bs. Read "One up on Wallstreet" by Peter Lynch. It's like 300 pages shorter and more fun. Then read Intelligent Investor if you want but if you get 20 pages in and fall asleep or feel stupid then I told you so.
Martin Shkreli is an asshat but he knows the finance side of valuing companies. His finance lessons are awesome if you stand him for a few hours at a time. Follow along with your own companies.
Cannabis Resources:
The sidebar has great resources. Stateside cannabis investors(EDIT: Currently down) is awesome for the US side.
The OCS releases a quarterly report you should read for Canada. Hell, go to OCS.ca and see what products are available and prices. Go to the BC page, the quebec page etc...
Statscan has a cannabis hub. It's updated super rarely and it might be archived but it's good to look at to start.
Megathread: President Donald Trump announces he has tested positive for Coronavirus | Part II
President Donald Trump announced he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the virus and will begin their quarantine and recovery process immediately. The news comes after it was announced that close presidential aide Hope Hicks tested positive Wednesday evening. Megathread Part I
SCR.TO - Bill reading day - massive opportunity to get in early before 🚀
1:30pm EST - Private member business - Safe and regulated Sports Betting Act (Canadian politics) https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentVieween/house/latest/projected-business If this passes, this is going to 🚀 this stock. They have investment from PENN a large gambling company US and they are also owned by one of the largest media companies in Canada.... Do your own DD but this is one to keep your 👁 on or blind faith into before the bill reading ✊🏼
I have seen (TSX: FIRE) (OTCQX: SPRWF) get a lot of hype the last few days. It has been the second most actively traded stock on the TSX in the last ten days. They also have a ticker that is literally 🔥 and a brand name that is ultimately supreme. I couldn’t think of a bettedouchier name and ticket for a Cannabis company.
Now the question is, should we buy into the hype?
First, what is $FIRE? $FIRE = the Supreme Cannabis Company produces marijuana under the banner of its wholly-owned subsidiary 7 Acres. They have a 440,000 square Cultivation facility. They also claim to have a robust R&D and genetics program, advance processing and automated packaging capabilities, and is Health Canada licensed for the sale of cannabis 2.0 products. They claim they have emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing, premium plant driven-lifestyle company by effectively deploying capital to build a diversified portfolio of successful cannabis brands. I personally feel like every Cannabis company says the same thing so that’s nothing new. Long story short, Supreme grow and hold Cannabis supplies their partners who produce specific products. Their partners are 7Acres, Blissco, Truverra, Sugar Leaf and Hiway (see picture below). In FY2020, Supreme Cannabis brought +35 cannabis consumer products to 10 provinces across Canada, formed an industry leading sales partnership, maintained a strong wholesale business and completed its first international medical cannabis export.
Here is a screenshot of what each “partner” is licensed to sell and where they can sell it.
https://preview.redd.it/zw8ze7o8dwf61.png?width=2612&format=png&auto=webp&s=c069d60dfc3a424ae19c653ced14c4b03de4dfa8 Comparing FIRE to other major and small cap weed companies there is nothing overly concerning/amazing. Fire did post a loss in its most recent financial year of CA$139m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of CA$93m shrinking the gap between loss and breakeven. Note they did offer a big 100m fundraiser to generate capital for new partnerships, expansion. I personally am of the belief that you need to attack to grow a business. Especially in crowded sectors such as Cannabis. I would rather see them look to create change and shake it up. You NEED to do something after having your market cap shrink as much as they have. Also keep in mind losses aren’t inherently bad as a company needs to invest to grow, but they do they to post positive earnings. They have their earnings coming up soon, so this is where momentum can change, if they can post a good quarter, I feel like the stock could explode. They are projected to grow 77.82% per year, plus the CEO has a good track record so it looks promising (more of that below). But do note do not have a ton of cash to keep them fluid, so this earnings report is super important. They’ve missed their last four quarters and they need to start producing some profit. Their earnings report will be announced Feb 11, 2021. People might be accumulating and generating hype on the hope of a good earnings report. This is similar to what happened with $SCR. Score absolutely blew up after they had a good earnings report after several consecutive quarters at a loss. Keep in mind this isn’t always the case (just look at AMD). Summary: If you're willing to wager on this earnings reports being positive, this is nothing to worry about. If you're super adverse to risk, I would maybe stay away. Could be huge upside, but it is a gamble.
Team:
April 27, 2020 the company made a wise move, bringing in Beena The Beauty Goldenberg: Beena is now President & CEO of Supreme Cannabis Company. Goldenberg brings 30 years of CPG experience to her roles at Supreme. For the last 15 years, she worked in the natural and organics space. As the CEO of Hain-Celestial Canada, she grew the business from approximately $40 million to over $300 million by the time she left in 2020. Here is a statement of Beena speaking pure fire about fire:
I joined Supreme Cannabis as President & CEO in April because I was drawn to the Company’s focus on quality – not just in our products, practices, and facilities – but in the emphasis our people place on continuous improvement across the organization. Since joining, I have seen us make significant progress in transforming ourselves into a premier cannabis CPG company.
It looks like Beena the beauty is in here to shake things up and bring some growth to this company. She noted that 2020 was a tough year for Cannabis growth, but it is clear a lot of investors are bullish on its opportunity in 2021. She came in and made some tough choices which I like, such as restructuring the organizational model, and adjusting the assumed valuations on parts of the business. Good to hear she made some cuts, shook things up and is looking to bring FIRE back to it’s 2018 hype. I didn’t look into the rest of the team too much, they all look pretty run of the mill executives. If someone wants to look more into the team it would be appreciated. Otherwise they have a 400 employee team everything looks pretty granola for the size of their operation. Summary: In Beena the beauty we trust.
Now that you probably know more about FIRE than your degree, the big question is wether there is news to support the recent price action/drive up more in the future?
Playing with B2B sales. They struck an agreement with Breath of Life International Ltd. to offer Truverra-branded premium medical cannabis to patients in Israel. To date, we have made three shipments of medical cannabis through the agreement. This “capitallight” approach further diversifies our revenue and builds Truverra as a global medical brand.
^ This is good because it shows they’re looking for international partners. This is where the real money is IMO, especially if legislation starts to change around the world regarding Cannabis products.
Earnings on Feb 11
^ Gamble, I feel like it will be better, but if it isn’t great, I think the price will take a beating again. If it’s good 🚀
I’m sure they’re seeking out more partners, opportunity for growth, new CEO is making the right moves. They just need to get their earnings up.
Opportunity for mergers is another positive option.
u/Hunterston noted that PepsiCo & Monsanto may have invested interests in the stock. He claims that BOL Pharma got their foot in the canadian market thru Supreme. supreme has sent 4 shipments to them and BOL afterwards sent a shipment to the UK with outstanding results. Potential shipments to Australia? I suspect we can learn a lot on the earnings call so we'll see if this is all true. This could further pump price action.
TDLR Should you buy? I will buy. I am not comfortable YOLO’ing in this company but I feel like there is decent upside. It really depends on this earnings report, if you get in early you could get some great returns but you could also be investing in a dying company. They aren’t an insanely healthy company, so I would go into this with some skepticism. I have personally been looking for a decent weed play and I feel like this is as good as any for earning potential. They have a product, earnings, and partnerships + plans, I can definitely see this company experiencing some growth. So much of this is dependant on earnings and it’s a decent company, but it isn’t really revolutionary. The weed sector is still new and so pillared to regulation. Governments are going to be looking for new $ after all the stimulus they’ve been giving so they should be more accepting of emerging sectors, but ultimately bureaucracy does what it will. I’m not going to lie, one decent reason to buy is their branding. I can just see a lot of you shmelts getting fired up about FIRE because of the ticker and the company name supreme. I know this isn’t the most sound financial logic, but this is memorable and because of the low market cap, unique branding and potential, I can see it getting pumped by communities and P2P conversations. I am not a financial advisor, make your own educated decisions, but I will likely be buying 5-10k shares to hold for a few years. Hopefully this helped 🚀 🚀 🚀
SCR.TO - Bill reading day - last chance to get in at a nice value before we 🚀
1:30pm EST - Private member business - Safe and regulated Sports Betting Act (Canadian politics) https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentVieween/house/latest/projected-business If this passes, this is going to 🚀 this stock. They have investment from PENN a large gambling company US and they are also owned by one of the largest media companies in Canada.... Do your own DD but this is one to keep your 👁 on or blind faith into before the bill reading ✊🏼
The cannabis market right now is so similar to the start of the green energy market.. its nowhere near done being bullish. Save for some small dips, there will very likely be a huge bullish trend for 2021. EVEN NASDAQ AGREES. I’ve posted my positions a few times, and I’ll continue to do so. But this is my reasoning for investing in cannabis stocks in general for 2021.
I've been a bull on cannabis since the democrats had a strong pro-cannabis platform. But what made me go balls deep into the market was that the UN changed its classification of cannabis. Countries follow the UN closely for guidance on their own classification of controlled substances. Congress has repeatedly cited the UN’s classification as one of the reasons for not changing it. Several countries immediately changed their stance on cannabis in response to this, including Israel, which In November 2020, announced that it was moving forward with a plan to legalize recreational cannabis nationally. “The country is aiming to implement recreational legalization within nine months, and even if there are delays, that means mid-to-late 2021.” (This is my reason for investing in Canadian cannabis companies, because they are already poised to expand internationally since its legal there nationwide)
THE SENATE IS NOW BLUE! The Georgia runoffs were won by Democrats, and they can now swing the vote left with VP Harris. She promised it as part of her platform, so we know it will be prioritized. CHUCK SHUMER SPONSORED THE MORE ACT. HE WILL BE SENATE MAJORITY LEADER. IT WILL 100% BE PRIORITIZED BETWEEN HIM AND VP HARRIS.
EVERYONE predicted beforehand that the republicans would win Georgia... everyone talked down decriminalization passing the house because of they believed it would NEVER pass the republican majority senate. But the left spent more than any senate race in history to encourage voters to go out and vote. Only once the race started did it become clear that the left had a chance. Then some gains from the surprise that they won. However the gains from 1/5 onwards definitely hasn’t been priced in for all the future legislation, because some of it will be completely new legislation that wasn’t possible to consider before without a blue senate. THIS HASN'T BEEN PRICED INTO THE MARKET YET.
The government is broke post-COVID. There is a terrible image of the police. They don’t want to waste more resources on cannabis related crimes that would be fixed under decriminalization. And the tax revenue from decriminalization would be significant. Decriminalization (THE MORE ACT) opens up the borders to interstate-commerce and international import/export. This would all trickle down into Uncle Sam’s empty pockets.
New York Governor Cuomo announced on Jan 6 his plan to legalize marijuana for adult use (right after New Jersey vote, as I anticipated in my last post) as part of his State of the State agenda. The next step is a ripple out on the North East. NY didn’t want to miss out on tax revenue, neither will any of the other states in the northeast within driving distance of NJ and NY. This is Cuomo’s third attempt in three years to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state; last year, Cuomo included a legalization proposal in his state budget, but the plan was ultimately cut in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Other ongoing state legislature:
Rhode Island: Regulators have received 45 applications for six new medical cannabis dispensary licenses in the state. If all applicants meet the requirements for a license, six will randomly be selected in a lottery to operate retail locations in different regions across the state. Read more
Missouri: Rep. Shamed Dogan has filed legislation that would place an adult-use cannabis legalization measure on the state’s 2022 ballot. Meanwhile, Missourians for a New Approach has announced plans for a separate 2022 ballot initiative after an unsuccessful signature campaign to get the issue before voters in 2020. Read more
Alabama: Sen. Tim Melson plans to reintroduce a medical cannabis legalization bill this year. Medical cannabis legislation passed the Alabama Senate during the 2020 session, but failed to clear the House. Read more
Illinois: Illinois lawmakers have proposed the creation of 75 new cannabis retail licenses to give disadvantaged and minority applicants a second chance at licensing following the controversial licensing lottery to issue an initial 75 dispensary licenses. A work group made up of lawmakers and members of Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration met this week to finalize details of the bill, which will be introduced in a lame-duck session that starts Jan. 8, before new lawmakers are sworn in Jan. 13. Read more
Minnesota: House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler is again renewing his push to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state, announcing plans to reintroduce a legalization bill this year. Winkler told WCCO that he sees “Senate leadership as being the number one obstacle,” but said that if lawmakers agreed to place an adult-use legalization initiative on Minnesota’s 2022 ballot, “it would pass overwhelmingly.” Read more
Virginia: Del. Steve Heretick has reintroduced a bill to legalize adult-use cannabis. Heretick has proposed legislation related to decriminalization and legalization in the past, and this year’s bill would legalize the cultivation, sale and consumption of cannabis in the state. Read more
Connecticut: Gov. Ned Lamont renewed his push for adult-use legalization during his State of the State address Jan. 6, announcing that it is a priority for the new legislative session. Connecticut’s 2021 legislative session opened Jan. 6, and Lamont, a Democrat, kicks off the session with increased majorities in the House and Senate, which could increase his chances of passing an adult-use legalization bill. Read more
Now that you understand why I’m going green, here’s my reasoning for my positions. TLRY (Tilray)
largest cannabis company in the world by revenue post merger. Will run out of Seattle and New York City. New York Legalization on top of senate turning blue is a big catalyst for TLRY.
Merger hasn’t completed yet, and the merger happened before the senate went blue.. that was the gamble APHA was making, and they won. The sky is the limit now. When they merge, they will reduce expenses and be much more likely to post profitable quarters. (This is why mergers have so much hype; the sum is > than their parts because they can reduce operating expenses while maintaining revenue from the two companies)
Tilray CEO Brendan Kennedy: “I think medical cannabis will be legal at the federal level, which means medical cannabis can cross state lines and be imported into the U.S., like we export cannabis from Canada and Portugal to about 15 countries now,” Kennedy said. “Anyone who thinks there’s a state-specific medical market is wrong.” As for the recreational market, Kennedy says the state-specific markets, with interstate trade banned, “are not going to last long.” Kennedy believes that cannabis will be distributed like alcohol and tobacco within two years’ time. That would require significant overhaul of US federal drug laws—and would significantly disrupt all US cannabis companies’ existing business models. Brendan Kennedy, the cannabis billionaire will step down as Tilray's chairman and CEO. Irwin D. Simon, Aphria's current chairman and CEO will take Kennedy's place.
[On December 18, 2020, just three days after the U.S. Senate adopted the Cannabidiol and Marihuana Research Expansion Act (CMREA or the Act) (more on this below), the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA or the Administration) published in the Federal Register a final rule, “Controls To Enhance the Cultivation of Marihuana for Research in the United States” (Rule), which finally paves the way for DEA to issue additional licenses to grow “marihuana” (i.e., cannabis) for research purposes.](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/on-heels-of-senate-s-adoption-of-36129/)
GNLN (Greenlane Holdings)
One of the largest global sellers of premium cannabis accessories. Pax/JUUL/Volcano products. I’ve had Pax products, and although I prefer Arizer because of the affordability, I can’t deny Pax has quality products and is like the “iPhone” of vaporizers. I like their products, I like their branding. There’s lots of hype and loyalty, especially with their Volcano desktop vaporizer.
Strong US brands.
The main reason they did poorly was bad timing. They IPO’d during the year that JUULs started being banned. They’re actually at all those levels again. Theres a ton of upside potential.
Market cap is ridiculously low for some really renown brands all because of the JUUL flavor pod ban. Everyone knows Pax, Volcano, and JUUL. But no one knows Greenlane because of the bad timing of their IPO and the subsequent JUUL flavor ban. It’s crazy. They’ve already broke all time high for the year. But I’m holding until they break 1B market cap.
Overall i think too many people count it out just because of their IPO and subsequent decline in JUUL sales from the JUUL flavored pods ban. They definitely have the potential because of their strong branding and quality products. I’m betting on them having more high quality products in the future with equally loyal customers.
SNDL (Sundial Growers)
SNDL must close above $1 per share for 10 consecutive sessions by June 26, 2021 or it will bedelisted from NASDAQ. People see this as a fear factor, I see this as “they will do anything necessary to reach $1 for a week so they won’t be delisted”.. IMHO reverse splitter probably isn’t on the table since they could have done that in 2020, but instead applied for a 6 month extension after announcing “alternative strategic investments”. We can already see this by their predatory loan SPAC spinoff.
Rumors of a merger with CGC; SNDL also purchased a SPAC recently and entered an agreement with Zenabis, immediately claiming they defaulted. Turning that SPAC into predatory loan/debt repurchasing company. Imo if they want to complete a merger, it would be easy to sell ownership through that SPAC to the buyer.
THEY RECENTLY WENTDEBT FREE by selling off unprofitable assets in the business. This means we are much more likely to see earnings in future quarters, and they are much more attractive for mergers.
Because they are indoor growers, they are more likely to be bought up by a company in the consolidating Canadian cannabis market than fail all together. The amount of space licensed to grow cannabis in Canada is now heavily skewed toward outdoor cultivation instead of indoor for the first time, according to new data from Health Canada. A growing population of licenses for outdoor growers means that there aren’t as many indoor licenses being given out... If a company ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD wants to quickly expand into indoor growing OR into the west, they would have to purchase an existing company that has the license to quickly do so. This is WAY faster, and a guaranteed way to obtain a license rather than applying for one and waiting x amount of months and be rejected for some requirement that wasn’t met.
From my own experience, outdoor cannabis is subpar quality to indoor grown cannabis. So a growing market for outdoor cannabis doesn’t necessarily mean its better... it is likely just cheaper. I would imagine a high quality “craft cannabis” company would want to purchase SNDL, or an existing outdoor growing company that wants to quickly expand to indoor grown cannabis. With this being a Canadian company, there’s a chance a company in another country like Israel would be interested in purchasing it in the near future.
PLNHF (Planet 13 Holdings)
Biggest tourist trap in Las Vegas if you’re a stoner, casual smoker, or just wanting to try it. From my own experience, I think they will continue to be successful. If I went around the US trying other brands I’d probably be more confident in putting 5-10% of my portfolio into those picks or choosing to not include them lol. Like for example, I used to have Curaleaf. But there's tons of bad feedback on Curaleaf, a friend has tried it said the nug is really subpar quality and if I tried their nug I’d probably confirm that I wouldn’t want to invest in them. With PLNHF, i’ve seen the ambience and tried the product myself. It’s definitely a lot of hype price wise, but still quality. This is my own bias showing, but I still think they’ve got solid fundamentals and excellent location/strong US branding.
I’m well aware of other good stocks like GTBIF, CRLBF, SSPK, TCNNF, GRWG.. but these stocks haven’t been swinging as hard in response to pro-cannabis news. E.g. TLRY, SNDL, GNLN swung more than 20% some days from pro-cannabis news...I will likely reduce my current positions shortly after inauguration, after some news about the timeline for cannabis legislation, and diversify my positions more between these other good picks. 2021 is the year of cannabis boys
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
Hey guys, it’s Coooolin!!! It’s a BRAND NEW MONTH! How was everyone’s first month into 2021!? Is everyone ready for this month!? Anyone have any big plans or goals this month!? Let me know, doown beloow!! Hope everyone’s having a great first day to kick off FEBRUARY!! Here’s the new cards for today, Thanks EA!
NHL 94 Flashback Event Cards
Theoren Fleury - 91 OVR - CGY / RW - DIS1 , LTL2 Evgeny Kuznetsov - 89 OVR - WAS / C - SWA1 , LTL2 Larry Murphy - 89 OVR - PIT / RD - SWA1 , HOW2 Sean Monahan - 89 OVR - CGY / C - SWA1 , WH2 John Leclair - 88 OVR - MTL / LW - SPA1 , SPE2 Connor Hellebuyck - 87 OVR - WPJ / G - 6’4” / 207 lbs - DIS1 , BAR2 John Marino - 87 OVR - PEN / RD - BAL1 , WM2 Josh Anderson - 87 OVR - MTL / RW - SPA1 , MAG2 Al Iafariate - 87 OVR - WAS / LD - BAR1 , HOW2 Andrew Cassels - 86 OVR - WHA / C - H and S1 , T2 Jake Gardiner - 86 OVR - CAR / LD - SPA1 , SH2 Tie Domi - 85 OVR - WPJ / RW - BAL1 , GLA2 ——-
Primetimes
NHL
Connor McDavid - 94 OVR - EDM / C - BAR1 , HOW1 Victor Hedman - 93 OVR - TBL / LD - GLA1 , PP1 .... nasty TOTY UPDATE! Alex Ovechkin - 92 OVR - WAS / LW - LTL1 , WM1 Patrice Bergeron - 90 OVR - BOS / C - T1 , WH1 Alexander Barkov - 88 OVR - FLA / C - PP1 , MAG1 Vincent Trocheck - 85 OVR - CAR / C - GLA1 , WH1 Kasperi Kapanen - 84 OVR - PEN / RW - SPE1 , SH1 Jordan Kyrou - 81 OVR - STL / C - LTL1 , SH1 Eric Robinson - 80 OVR - CBJ / LW - BAL1 , GLA1 Aleksi Heponiemi - 78 OVR* - FLA / C - SPA1 , LTL1
Other Leagues
Anton Lundell - 84 OVR - IFK / C - HOW1 , PP1 Darren Brunner - 79 OVR - EHC / RW - BAR1 , HOW1 Michael Lundqvist - 79 OVR - FAR / RW - DIS1 , PP1 Mavrick Bourque - 78 OVR - CAT / C - H and S1 , BAR1 Markus Ljungh - 78 OVR - LIN / C - SWA1 , T1 Lasse Lappalainen - 78 OVR - KAL / LD - SPA1 , WH1 Vilmos Gallo - 78 OVR - KOV / LW - H and S1 Gustav Lindvall - 78 OVR - SHA / G - 6’0” / 174 lbs - DIS1 , BAR1 • • • • • • • • • • - - - - - - - - - • • • • • • • • • • • •
Packs Available
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P.S.
• Brand New Month! • HUT CHAMPS Rewards Processing • New NHL 94 FLASHBACK Event Cards • Fantasy Hockey Players Upgrades — ? I thought , oops...
• Rivals Resets - Tomorrow at 5pm EST • SB Season Reset - Wednesday at 5pm EST • Rivals Rewards - Wednesday at 5pm EST • HUT Champ Rewards - Wednesday at 6am EST • SB Rewards !! - Thursday at 5pm EST • More Event Cards!! - Friday at 5pm EST —————
Summary of the day
Quick Read Best Forward of the Day - NHL94 - is THEEORENN FLEUURRY OVR 91 with the syn DISSTRIBUTORR and DOUBLE LIGHT UP THE LAMPSS Best Defence of the Day - NHL94 - is LAARRRYY MURPHYY OVR 89 with the syn SWAARRMM and DOUUUBLEE HOWITZERRR ////// Best Forward of the Day - PT - is CONNOORRR MCDAAVIDD OVR 94 with the syn BAARRRAAGEE and HOWITZERRR Best Defence of the Day - PT - is VICTORRR HEDMAANN OVR 93 with the syn GLAADDIATORR AND PASSINN PLAYMAKERR • UPGRADE FANTASY HOCKEY PLAYERS +1 OVR HIGHER • HUT Champs Processing - Where did you place? • NEW EVENT - NHL 94 FLASHBACK - CARDS OUT TODAY ! ———— —— ———
IMPORTANT NOTICE
New Month. New Mindset. New Beginning. New Focus. New Start. New Intentions. New Results. I hope you all had a great start to a brand new month! 2 months into 2021 already, WOW !! Did you murder your New Years Resolution in the first month of 2021? Its never too late to get it started again!! You can do whatever you put your mind to. I hope you all have a blessed, amazing, lucky, wonderful February! 28 days of blessings. Take care!
Interested in Stocks?
EA’s Stock Price, after hours - Feb 1 $ 145.87 (usd) —- Currency Converter we looked at the stock at $137.54 usd —— That is a difference of ( $8.33 / 6.06% ) — Disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor. It is your money, please do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for your money. This is *not** advice. I added this section for an added educational purposes only. Thanks* —— —— —— —-
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Sites To Bookmark!
If you click here you will be redirected to bilasport. Bilasport is the best Online Streaming site for your entertainment needs for all sports! (Not affiliated) A great streaming source recommended by NHLStreams is SurgeSport. Click on Hockey and you’ll be good to go! Want to make your dream team, and show others what you’ve been working on, and much more? I will redirect you HERE!. Here’s a helpful pack guide for you! Click! Want to know how the market is holding up? With a simple TAP! you will be on the newly fresh made website for the HUT market, made by one of the guys on the sub! .... what do the stats on a card mean? Is my card I want / pulled good? Click here to find out!! When is my favourite team playing? When do they play!? Here you can click on this link, and tap on your favourite team. From there, tap “Schedule” . You can add this to your homescreen on iPhone by clicking the square with the upwards arrow, scrolling down, and tapping “Add to Home Screen” ——- —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —- —— —-
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Story Time
Coming soon — Always tend to forget these at the last second! ——- 32 / 365 —— —— —— —- —- ——- —- —— —— Thanks for reading. I’m always welcome to feedback, please let me know what I can improve on. If there’s anything missing, please let me know! Take care, happy gaming! **TODAY IS NATIONAL FREEDOM DAY! • Coolin Killin It (Life is like a puzzle, you just have to find the right piece.)
Recently began revenue generation. Exports to multiple markets, including EU market where regulatory environment is more stable (i.e. long-term cash flow benefit, imo). Diverse set of revenue streams including proprietary genetics, cannabis derivatives, cosmetics, CO2 oil extraction. Continued to expand facilities and raise capital despite COVID.
Just closed $1M capital raise, bringing in Facundo Garreton, well-known venture capitalist.
Holds licenses for both THC and CBD products. Operations in both Colombia and Argentina.
Strong leadership team with South American regulatory/political contacts, pharma sales, and startup experience. However, some senior management churn indicative of activist investing.
Operations: Multiple developing revenue streams across cannabis industry, including: CO2 oil extraction services and sales, genetic research and licensing of both low- and high-THC varietals, cloning and sales to growers, and cosmetics production. 2019: Basically a dedicated production-scaling year. Engaged in the expansion of cultivation area, development of contract grower relationships, and establishing CO2 oil extraction line w/ capacity of 75000kg/year dried flower at EU-GMP standards. Secured a distribution agreement with EU pharmacies. 2020: was marked by the establishment of product lines (oil, cosmetics) and the initial generation of revenue from selling cloned cuttings of proprietary genetic strands to growers and some initial cosmetics. Additional capacity expansion from the purchase of BBV labs in Argentina, a joint venture with Argentinian state cannabis company, Cannava. 2019-2020 marked harvesting of first commercial crop. 2021: 1H 2021 forecast to begin sales of CBD-only and CBD/THC extractives, final approval of proprietary THC genetics, sales of tolling services for oil extraction, and ramp-up of cosmetics sales. Cultivation Costs/Yield: Long-term cultivation costs at $0.13 CAD/gram compared to $1+ for ACB/Aphria and $3.50+ for TLRY. Outdoor cultivation - which is where BBRRF is focused long-term - is $0.06 CAD/gram. Why is this possible? Climate advantages, Outdoor cultivation and contract growing. South American producers have a tremendous long-term advantage over indoor growers in the US and Canada, due to extremely low labor costs (pre-existing sharecropper models in other agricultural goods drive prices down), and a warmer, drier climate than their North American counterparts. Plus outdoor growing has lower capital investment requirements per gram produced. Broader macro political note: Colombia is trying to integrate previous FARC members into mainstream society. IMO, this means exportable cash crops are likely to be pushed by the government. Cannabis cultivation stands to gain substantially in that environment. The reason isn't the prettiest - lots of farmers that depended on or were forced into the FARC-sponsored drug trade will be looking for new crops - but it is a durable reason to think the political environment will favor cannabis to reduce US drug war pressure, and integrate former FARC members and dependents into the Colombian economy. Financials:
Recent capital raise of $1 million from Garreton when brought in on Board/Interim CEO provided significant bump to cash runway.
Just began revenue generation in Q3 2020 - sales of cloned cultivars to associate growers @ 40% gross margin + some introductory cosmetic sales. Still small but compares with 30% gross margin in the legal cannabis industry. Bulk oil sales expected 1st half 2021.
Substantial loss/cash burn reduction over 2020. Quarterly loss of $1.1mln Q3 2020 vs. $2.5mln Q3 2019. Picture is similar for 9-month period (loss of 3.7 mln 2020 vs. 9.2 mln 2019). Prior losses attributable to capacity expansion initiatives.
Debt/Equity Ratio: 0.44 ($2.35 million liabilities, $5.30 million equity).
CEO and Board President: Facundo Garreton - "Mr. Garreton is a successful entrepreneur in the fields of innovation, technology and life sciences, and a former member of Congress in Argentina. His successful track record as an entrepreneur includes founding InvertirOnline.com, one of Latin America’s largest online brokerage firms, as well as founding and serving as director of SociaLab and Sistema B, the most important platform for social entrepreneurs in Latin America. Mr. Garreton also has strategic involvement with other cannabis companies including YVY Life Sciences in Uruguay and Flow Kana in California. Mr. Garreton is a director of various successful companies such as: YVY Life Sciences, Pachama.com, VU Security, Untech.bio, Bulltick, GoodPeople, Inipop.com and others. Also, he is an investor in companies such as ClaraFoods, TheNotCompany, Blue Planet Ecosystems, Memphis Meat, Cambridge Crops, Electro-Active Technologies (EAT), Unbox Robotics, Prellisbio.com and MycoWorks."
CFO: Ian Atacan - " Mr. Atacan is a finance leader with more than 25 years of experience in business strategy development, valuations of M&A, debt and equity financing, divestitures and investment transactions, financial modeling, project management, competitive analysis and developing strategic investment recommendations. He has worked with renowned international companies such as Sprint, DHL Worldwide Express, and Procter & Gamble. Most recently, Mr. Atacan was the Chief Financial Officer of Natura Naturals Holdings Inc., a Canadian cannabis company licensed for cultivation, production and bulk sales under the Cannabis Act of Canada, until its acquisition by Tilray Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) for $82 million. As Chief Financial Officer of Blueberries, Mr. Atacan brings entrepreneurial and financial acumen cultivated through business start-ups, recapitalizations, and expansion projects to drive national and international business growth."
CMO - Eduardo Molinari: Formerly with Abbott Labs and AbbVie (Abbott's pharma spinoff) in roles of steadily increasing responsibility. Indicates lots of experience marketing pharmaceutical products and contacts across the industry.
Experienced technical team including VP of Operations with experience at GlaxoSmithKline/Abbott (Carlos Maldonado); Medical Director with experience at Merck (Dr. Andres Vidal); and R&D Director with experience at PharmaCielo (Cristina Tora).
Note: One possible trouble spot - company has had a number of prior CEOs, including Patricio Stocker (formerly @ PharmaCielo), and then Camilo Villalba (resigned family issues) and Christian Toro (interim, was COO). I get the impression there has been some activist investor activity due to 2019 cash burn rate being excessive, but this is just a guess as there haven't been any clear corporate statements of why Stocker or Villalba left. I suspect Stocker was pushed out after building some initial contacts with export markets. However, the CFO and CMO are both quite experienced and bringing in Garreton is a major plus. Also the R&D Director from PharmaCielo is still there, as are both longer-term ex-Abbott senior people, so this may have been mostly amicable activist investing. There were also some board resignations/replacements when Garreton became CEO, one of which was Andres Vidal, still employed as medical director, so I suspect some of these moves were transparency/governance-based as the company scales up. Note 2: Former Board Member: Fabio Valencia Cossio - former Minister of the Interior under Uribe. Resigned from board when Garreton was named CEO, along with a few others. But to my knowledge he hasn't disposed of his shares. Coupled with Garreton, and BBRRF's partnership with a state-owned Argentinian cannabis company, I see this as a sign of broader political support for the company. Sources:
Analyst Research (FRC, need an account to view full reports, but free)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. All investment decisions taken at your own risk. Position: Currently long 38,000 shares @ $0.105. Previously was long 70,000 shares @ $0.04. (Did some profit taking @$0.115 in my IRA in case of a re-trace, rebought).
@TraceSafeTech and Why We Love it - written by @mrdotto5 @stockfamgroup $TSF $UTOLF
TraceSafe Inc. (TSF in Canada, UTOLF in U.S. with OTCQB listing in near future) Industry: Real-Time Location Services (including Contact Tracing) Notable Management: Mr. Wayne Lloyd (C.E.O. of TraceSafe) Dr. Dennis Kwan (C.E.O of TraceSafe Technologies), Why We Love it: By the time I finished my DD, and I did quite a bit of it, TraceSafe was an auto-buy for me and a pleasure to write about. But before diving in, I had questions; plenty of them. I believe that investors should enter every opportunity with skepticism. It gives you a clearer head and reduces potentially dangerous levels of FOMO (fear of missing out). FOMO can drive valuations of stocks to scary levels and it rarely ends well, as retail buyers like you and me buy the hype on a company while bigger players exit their positions. Smaller growth-oriented companies can often have new, exciting technology that captures the imagination of the market, but smart investors, retail or otherwise, always look for one key milestone before buying in: validation. Without proof that a company is successfully penetrating their market, you’re buying the idea instead of the reality. When I first looked at Tracesafe in the autumn of 2020, I was impressed by the technology they were bringing to market with an experienced management team. But I didn’t invest my hard-earned money because I needed to see real partnerships with big-market companies. Cutting edge technology, for all its impressiveness, isn’t worth much to a company without the means to monetize it. If you’re buying the idea, you’re making a leap of faith, and that is a little too close to gambling for me. So much has happened since then that the leap of faith has become an open door to walk through. Validation is here. But before we get to all that, let’s set the foundation, because none of this would have been possible without the management team, which is one of the most impressive parts to the story. The C.E.O., Dr. Dennis Kwan, and The C.T.O. Suresh Singamsetty, have been developing technology companies in the wearables space for years. Dr. Kwan co-founding Martian Watches, the first ever voice-enabled smartwatch. He was also V.P. of a Bluetooth company that was acquired for $160 million and he personally owns more than ten patents in wireless/bluetooth technologies. Mr. Singamsetty, the software expert, was with Dr. Kwan at Martian Watches. He owns more than 20 patents himself. The third member of the team, Gord Zeilstra, is another massive successful industry veteran. His specialty is driving companies’ global sales footprint. His success in the building of Monster.com and S.A.P. into global brands is an exciting indicator of where TraceSafe is headed. So what about validation? Let’s begin with its partnership with Tritan Software. You probably haven’t heard of them, but I have no doubt you have heard of Carnival Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Lines, and Royal Caribbean. Tritan is the health and safety software provider for 95% of the entire global cruise line industry. I’ll put that in word form to give it the attention it deserves: NINETY FIVE PERCENT of the global cruise line industry. Tritan is responsible for collecting, storing and securing the privacy of health information for all passengers, in addition to quality and incident management and a host of other software solutions. The CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention) will most certainly have compliance requirements for resumption of sailing operations and Tritan knows this, which is why they are acting now, and acting swiftly. (Countless other companies approached Tritan, but they chose the experience and superior security of TraceSafe). The partnership was only recently announced and it remains to be seen how entwined the two companies will become, but contact tracing is only the tip of the iceberg (sorry, not the best cruise line analogy). For a clearer picture of the entire iceberg, we can look to Walt Disney’s iconic theme parks. It is no secret that Disney theme parks have always placed a premium focus on customer experience, and one of the most effective ways they achieve this is through the “Magic Band”, which is essentially a wearable device that customers use to enter the park, unlock their hotel rooms, and buy food and merchandise. A one stop shop on your wrist. This is where the cruise industry is headed. With a wearable on your wrist, you can enjoy all the same conveniences as the Magic Band combined with a contact tracing and safety monitoring device, all in one device. So, that’s it? The cruise lines? Even if it were the only partnership in the pipeline, it may have been enough to turn TraceSafe into a major global player, but it is just one of many projects, both ongoing and in the future. But even greater validation was announced just today (making me do some quick edits to this story) TraceSafe, just today, announced a potentially game-changing purchase order. The agreement is to supply a global Tier 1 semiconductor manufacturer with 60,000 wearable units to be used across their enterprise. Professional services network Deloitte is managing the implementation of TraceSafe’s “next generation” of wearable products, which can be processed and paired within seconds, compared to about 3 minutes per device of other companies in the industry. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this agreement, Dr. Kwan is quoted “This is one of the largest deployments of its kind anywhere in the world and we are very proud to be working with technology innovators to deliver a product so important in enhancing the health and safety of their workforce.” I will forgive you if you stop reading now. The above agreement, combined with the cruise line partnership, is honestly enough for me and for many investors, but for those who stick around, the story actually gets considerably better. The total wearable market is projected to reach $60 billion, and a large part of this will focus on corporate safety. In this way, Tracesafe has a bit of an advantage, as the company has a presence in Southeast Asia. You will remember that long before we realized the impact of the pandemic, several Asian countries were already scrambling to deal with the first wave. Since that time, we have dealt with each wave several months behind Southeast Asian countries. This time lapse has given TraceSafe a window into near-future conditions in the Western world. The best example of this is in Singapore, where they are closer to emerging from lockdown than we are in North America. Singapore has become the proving ground for TraceSafe technology., and it has gone perfectly. TraceSafe is being worn on construction sites for Boustead, a massive Singaporean construction company. This partnership has not only led to improvements in safety and security at Boustead, but it has also won TraceSafe the Singaporean National Innovation Award. Closer to home, TraseSafe partnered with The World Junior Hockey Championships in Vancouver, Canada in December. The tournament was essentially a bubble-event that was completed safely using TraceSafe technology. T.T.G, the sponsorship firm that organized the event (and, incidentally, was instrumental in bringing The Winter Olympics to Vancouver in 2010) was impressed. So was Telus, the tournament sponsor. The future is very bright in venue tracing, with fans itching to return but needing a safe and proven way to do it. There remains one incredibly large catalyst for growth, and some may find it the most interesting of all, but before we get to that (cough, Airbeam, cough), let’s quickly dispel any lingering doubts you may have: Aren’t those wrist bands uncomfortable and a nuisance? This is another part of the reason Tritan and others have chosen TraceSafe. Recall that two of the management team are pioneers of the wearable space with over 30 patents between them. The TraceSafe product has a battery that long outlasts any other in the industry and it is also incredibly lightweight and unobtrusive. Added to this is the extended product line, with tags and credit-card style devices. Discounting everything else in the pipeline, is anybody seriously going to get back on a cruise ship after all that has happened? Will the return to cruise lines be slow? The high amount of bookings for the second half of 2021 says “no”, and so do experts in the field, who state that cruise line demand is higher than most other industry segments. Once people are vaccinated, the industry will return in a big way. Tritan understands this; hence the quick action. But what about privacy? Isn’t this just another way for companies or governments to spy on us? I honestly wondered about this because it seemed an obvious question, but the answer makes complete sense. If the TraceSafe software were downloaded onto your phone, perhaps there would be more skepticism on my part. We all value privacy and bristle when it is infringed upon. But these devices are only work-site specific, meaning that the wearables (and software embedded in them) are separate from your personal devices and they do not function once you leave the site. They only ensure health and safety through workplace tracking. Aren’t margins higher on software than hardware? Will this make enough profit? The answers to these questions vary, but they all begin with “yes”. Margins are indeed higher on software, and TraceSafe in fact is currently selling 50/50 between hardware and software (cloud computing), with a focus on moving to 20/80 in the coming months. The cloud-based real-time monitoring system does not, in fact, need an internet connection (which I’d say is important when you’re out at sea) as it is a bluetooth device. No user information is stored on the device and it has medical-grade privacy/security (remember the company’s origins). The administration functions are user-friendly. What about the revenues? Whatever exciting news you may hear about a company, it is always more reassuring to see actual revenues pouring in, even so soon after developing a contact tracing solution. TraceSafe could be forgiven for only being a quarter or two away from meaningful revenues, but luckily for investors, this isn’t the case. Based on video interviews in January, the company expects to continue their 100%-200% year over year growth, which puts them somewhere between a projection of $20-$32 million for 2021. Although it should be noted that I’m extrapolating these numbers by following growth patterns from previous quarters, this DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY NEW PARTNERSHIPS, INCLUDING THE AGREEMENT ANNOUNCED TODAY! (Oops, sorry. I seem to have left caps lock on there!). And then there is the share float. Fully diluted, after all outstanding shares incentive-based options, the total share count will be under 70 million. This is a very small float, which appeals to most investors, as a company in a growth phase will have fewer obstacles to share price growth. What about data? Data monetization is big business. TraceSafe will have the ability to monetize data from their cloud-based software at some point in this process, although that shouldn’t be confused with personal data, which would never be shared, obviously. But corporations looking for trends in safety and efficiency would most definitely benefit from the analysis of general workforce data. What else am I missing? This is a bonus for the company that cannot be overstated. Airbeam. Ever heard of it? Before you read the bonus paragraph below, note that TraceSafe has invested into Airbeam and owns an impressive 9.9 million shares. Ok, go ahead and read about Airbeam now (Thanks to Stock Fam discord user “Aberdenov” for the assistance) The 5G revolution is upon us. This revolution will be in the tens of TRILLIONS of dollars. Airbeam will be a player in 5G critical infrastructure. Their 5G micro cell network utilizing AI/ML with EDGE computing on the 60Ghz band will be a catalyst for smart cities enabling such things as autonomous vehicles. Airbeam will also be deploying wireless cameras with unlimited storage and smart displays for advertising. The company is led by former executive and head of research and development at Qualcomm, Dr Karim Arabi, and along with Stockwell Day and his political connections, the future looks bright for the company. Airbeam's last private raise was back in 2019 with a valuation of 97 million. Since then they have gained traction with pilot projects in America, Qatar and the Philippines. An IPO is expected sometime in 2021 with a far higher valuation. TraceSafe has openly talked about increasing shareholder value after the Airbeam IPO, including a potential dividend, which is unheard of for a growth tech company. So you see how skepticism can lead to the DD that you need to uncover a company like TraceSafe. It has the management team, tech cutting-edge technology, the validation, the contracts, the blue-sky opportunity of an industry that will be a part of our lives, and an incredible piece of foresight to buy in early to a very hotly anticipated IPO. Just another Stock Fam favourite! Thanks to expert poster Jethro and all the members of the TraceSafe channel for their relentless DD. Come join the discussion! Follow me on twitter MrDotto5
Hey guys, it’s Coooolin! How was your Monday!? It’s a brand new week!! Hope everyone had a great start to it ! What did you do today? Let me know, down below! Here’s the new content for today, Thanks EA! :)
NHL 94 Flashback
Mark Recchi - 91 OVR - PHI / RW - DIS1 , WM2 Glenn Anderson - 90 OVR - EDM / RW - BAR1 , HOW2 Morgan Rielly - 90 OVR - TOR / RD - BAR1 , LTL2 ... YAY!u/jordanjclarke Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - 89 OVR - EDM / C - DIS1 , MAG2 Ryan Getzlaf - 88 OVR - ANA / C - - H and S1 , T2 ... 91 FOs with T Shayne Corson - 87 OVR - EDM / LD - BAL1 , SPE2 Craig Ludwig - 87 OVR - DAL / LD - SWA1 , WH2 Kevin Hayes - 87 OVR - PHI / C - SPA1 , MAG2 Tomas Hertl - 87 OVR - SJS / C - SPA1 , LTL2 Sean Hill - 86 OVR - ANA / RW - BAL1 , SH2 Jamie Olesiak - 85 OVR - DAL / LD - SWA1 , GLA2 Johan Garpenlov - 85 OVR - SJS / LW - H and S1 , PP2 —-
Primetimes
NHL
Austin Matthews - 93 OVR - TOR / C - LTL1 , GLA1 Mitchell Marner - 91 OVR - TOR / RW - PP1 , MAG1 Max Pacioretty - 88 OVR - LVK / LW - WM1 , WH1 Thomas Griess - 87 OVR - DET / G - 6’2” / 232 lbs - BAR1 , SPA1 Alex Debrincant - 87 OVR - CHI / RW - HOW1 , SH1 Dougie Hamilton - 87 OVR - CAR / RD - GLA1 , WH1 Mikael Backlund - 85 OVR - CGY / C - SPE1 , MAG1 Barclay Goodrow - 83 OVR - TBL / C - MAG1 , T1 ... 86 FOs with T Jake Allen - 83 OVR - MTL / G - 6’2” / 190 lbs - DIS1 , SWA1 Maxime Comtois - 82 OVR - ANA / LW - PP1 , WM1 Scott Laughton - 81 OVR - PHI / C - HOW1 , SH1 Bratt Pesce - 80 OVR - CAR / RD - BAL1 , GLA1 Chandler Stephenson - 80 OVR - LVK / C - DIS1 , PP1 Nicolas Hague - 78 OVR - LVK / LD - SPA1 , LTL1 Givani Smith - 78 OVR - DET / RW - SWA1 , MAG1
1D 23H • Jumbo Elite Pack - 50k C / 1k P 20 items , with at least 11 80+ OVR Players • Mega Pack - 37.5k C / 750 P 30 items, at least 15 Gold Players, and 4 80+ OVR Players • Players Pack - 15k C / 300 P 10 items, all Players, at least 5 Gold Players and 1 80+ OVR Player
• Rivals Resets - Tomorrow at 5pm EST • SB Season Reset - Wednesday at 5pm EST • Rivals Rewards - Wednesday at 5pm EST • HUT Champ Rewards - Wednesday at 6am EST • SB Rewards !! - Thursday at 5pm EST • More Event Cards!! - Friday at 5pm EST —————
Summary of the day
Quick Read Best Forward of the Day - 94 FLASHBACK - is MAARK RECHHI OVR 91 with the syn DISTRIBUTOR and DOUBLE WING MAN Best Defence of the Day - 94 FLASHBACK - is MOORGAN RIELLY OVR 90 with the syn BARRAGEE and LIGHT THE LAAMP // Best Forward of the Day - PT - is AUSTIN MATTHEWSS OVR 93 with the syn LIGHT THE LAMP and GLAADIATOR Best Defence of the Day - PT - is DOUGIE HAMILTONN OVR 86 with the syn GLADIATORR and WING MAAN ———— —— ———
Important Notice
Okay, lets say you had a bad day. Are you going to let it tower over your mood, spiral thoughts into your brain making it negative... or are you going to get your power back? You are who you choose to be. Just be yourself, and be you: be true, be you, and just be yourself. People will like you for you, and not just a fake persona you choose to be..because people can/will find out sooner or later, and that’ll just be bad. Do what makes you happy. Be around people that make you happy.. and if someone isnt? Tell them that - or let them be. You deserve good people in your life.
Interested in Stocks?
EA’s Stock Price, after hours - Feb 8 $ 142.46 (usd) —- Currency Converter we looked at the stock at $137.54 usd —— That is a difference of ( $4.92 / 3.58% ) — Disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor. It is your money, please do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for your money. This is *not** advice. I added this section for an added educational purposes only. Thanks* —— —— —— —-
NEED A SOUNDTRACK TO LISTEN TO?
I made this for everyone. I’ll update it whenever I feel like it, but its been often!
WE’RE AT 1400 SONGS! WOWW! How are you not listening to this playlist already!? Comment songs to add, and please give feedback! It’s much appreciated!! I currently have “Glad You Exist” by “Dan + Shay” stuck in my head.... which you can play, recently added to the playlist! Sidenote - How do you guys like the playlist!? I have a friend who makes music...and I really want to surprise him with some new people listening to his music... if you wanna help me, please click Here!! it would mean a lot to me!! ———-
Sites To Bookmark!
If you click here you will be redirected to bilasport. Bilasport is the best Online Streaming site for your entertainment needs for all sports! (Not affiliated) A great streaming source recommended by NHLStreams is SurgeSport. Click on Hockey and you’ll be good to go! Want to make your dream team, and show others what you’ve been working on, and much more? I will redirect you HERE!. Here’s a helpful pack guide for you! Click! Want to know how the market is holding up? With a simple TAP! you will be on the newly fresh made website for the HUT market, made by one of the guys on the sub! .... what do the stats on a card mean? Is my card I want / pulled good? Click here to find out!! When is my favourite team playing? When do they play!? Here you can click on this link, and tap on your favourite team. From there, tap “Schedule” . You can add this to your homescreen on iPhone by clicking the square with the upwards arrow, scrolling down, and tapping “Add to Home Screen” ——- —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —- —— —-
Fighting a Gambling Addiction?
Don’t feel scared to click here. Winning is SO much louder than losing. Know that you are NEVER alone. We are all here for eachother, and it is never too late to get help. I am here for you. This is a VERY important thread, especially if you are new to HUT. Here! ——- 39 / 365 —— —— —— —- —- ——- —- —— —— Thanks for reading. I’m always welcome to feedback, please let me know what I can improve on. If there’s anything missing, please let me know! Take care, happy gaming! HAPPY NATIONAL KITE FLYING DAY! • Coolin Killin It (Life is like a puzzle, you just have to find the right piece.)
I am 35 years old, make $56,000 ($231k combined), live in Seattle, and work in higher ed administration
Note: I was technically supposed to post this earlier this week, but noticed that no one was signed up for today (plus I was super busy earlier), so I'm posting a bit late, under a throwaway account! Fair warning: I'm VERY verbose, so this will be long! Section One: Assets and Debt As I mentioned above, I make $56k per year as an administrator in higher education. My husband (K) just got a raise to making $155k per year. He works as a lawyer, has been in the workforce for about 12 years. I won't get into too many details but he works for a small boutique firm, not Biglaw. He also sometimes gets a yearly bonus of around $10k-20k but it's not guaranteed or anything like that. K and I have totally combined finances, so the below numbers are for both of us. I have a humanities PhD but I decided to leave academia and find an alt-ac job. My current position has good work-life balance (I never work past 5 pm), but pays terribly and my university is very badly run. I'm hoping to leave higher education all together in the future and am currently enrolled in a certificate program to try to make a career transition to instructional design. The big elephant in the room is that my husband, K, makes a lot more money than me. When we first met, he was paying off massive amounts of student loans and making much less, and I was debt free with a lot of savings, so we both spent about the same amount. Now he makes 3x what I make and we are both debt-free, so the difference is much more noticeable. We do argue about money sometimes (more in the past), but the reality is that I have a humanities PhD and will likely never out earn him, and he knew that when I married him, lol. Because of all the labor I do around the house and in our lives to support him as he works a much more intense job, I was very clear that I believed we should split our finances equally as soon as we got married. We don't have separate accounts and we generally check in with one another whenever we are planning to spend more than $100. This system works for us for now. I also want to address the question about parental or family support. Although I technically paid all of my own bills since I got my Bachelor's degree, my parents supported me a lot by paying for my flights home to visit at Christmas or in the summer as Xmas presents/birthday presents. My parents also paid for my undergraduate degree (and K's parents paid for his undergraduate degree as well). They also gave us about $15k to pay for our wedding. Finally, my parents recently gave me $20k as an "early inheritance." They told me they plan to do this every year (depending on the stock market). We put this money into a brokerage. I don't consider my parents rich, as they both worked hourly jobs in health care my entire life (as a nurse and respiratory therapist - both with only associate's degrees). We never owned a new car, when we went on vacation we stayed in hostels , and shopped almost exclusively at Goodwill. But they scrimped and saved and now they have over $1 million in a retirement account. So I want to acknowledge my financial privilege in that I came from this kind of background. K's parents are similar. Retirement Balance: $186k (combination of 401k, 403b, 457, 2 Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage account). Equity: None, we rent. Savings account balance: Approximately $45k. Checking account balance: Right now, around 8k. Credit card debt: Right now, around $3k. But we pay it off each month with our checking account balance. Student loan debt: $0. We finally paid off my husband’s law school loans (around $130k), last year. I didn’t have any student loans from undergrad (parents paid) and my MA & PhD were fully funded. Section Two: Income Income Progression: I’ve been working in my current field for 3 years. I started off making about $53k and got tiny 2% “merit increases” twice. Then in July my payroll title was changed, which triggered a required raise of about $2k. (I am dramatically underpaid). Before my current position, I was in academia. I worked as a visiting assistant professor for one year at my alma mater (made $50k for 9 months of work) and before that I was a graduate student for 7 years. I was paid $18k-21k in stipends each year and my tuition & benefits were covered. Luckily, I lived in a very low cost of living area and this was enough for me to live on without going into debt. I got my PhD in 2017. Before I was a graduate student, I taught English in Japan for three years and made around $36k per year. In high school and college, I had random jobs that provided grocery/spending money, but I was lucky enough to have parents that paid my tuition and my rent in college. I’m currently trying to make a career change (as you will see in my diary) and enrolled in a certificate program which runs from Autumn 2020 to Spring 2021 in order to help with that. Main Job Monthly Take Home: $7,634. This probably seems low relative to our joint income, but we max out our 401k (K) and 403b (me). I work for the state government, which means I’m also eligible for something called a Deferred Compensation Plan (457b). This is basically the same as a 401k but you can withdraw contributions and gains from the account at any age without penalty (of course, you still have to pay taxes). I also max this out, and the limit is the same as a 401k/403b - $19.5k. Also this number is before K’s raise is accounted for. It won’t increase until his end of February paycheck. Other deductions - I have health insurance taken out (about $80 a month for me, K’s firm covers his premiums) and taxes. WA has no state taxes, so it’s only federal taxes. I used to have to pay $50 / month for a bus pass (K's was free), but I don’t pay any longer because I’m working from home during COVID. Final note - the sum I mentioned in the headline includes a variable bonus my husband gets. My base pay is $56k and his is $155k (as of February 1). This year he also got a bonus of $20k, which is set up a bit strangely. About $4k of this was structured as a 3% matching contribution to his 401k and the rest was taxable income. In small law firms, it’s unusual to get any 401k match so this was nice. Side Gig Monthly Take Home: None. Any Other Monthly Income Here: We get some interest from our savings account… like $25 a month. Section Three: Expenses Rent: Rent comes to approximately $2,050 total for a one-bedroom apartment. Rent itself is $1886, then we have pet rent ($25 per month), bicycle parking ($15 a month) and water / sewage / gas, which is usually $120-150 (variable cost). Renters insurance: $157.76, paid annually. $13 a month. Retirement contribution: In addition to the 401k, 403b, and 457, which all come out before taxes, we max out our Roth IRAs. That means $500 each per month per person (for a yearly total of $6k each). As I noted up top, we match out our 401k and 403b (19,500 each) and our 457. My employee also offers a 7.5% match. K's employee offers a 3% match but it is included in his yearly bonus so it's not guaranteed (confusing). Savings contribution: We put $500 per month into our emergency fund. We also put about $860 a month into our “sinking fund,” which covers large and small annual or sporadic purchases such as vacations, gifts, Amazon Prime renewal, car insurance and renters insurance, etc. Investment contribution: $875 per month into a taxable brokerage at Vanguard. In total, we save about 47% of our gross income. We can do this because we keep our housing cost low relative to our high income, we don’t have any debt remaining, we don’t have any kids or parents who need financial support, and we’re very privileged in a lot of ways. We are hoping to FIRE within 10 years. Debt payments: None. Donations: We budget $100 per month for donations, which includes one-time donations as well as some reoccurring donations. My husband does pro bono work as well. I would like to increase this by quite a bit, but I still have a hard time budgeting for donations because I spent 7 years living on approximately $20k a year. To go from that to making more than 10x that amount within 3-4 years is obviously something that I am very privileged for, but it is still hard for me emotionally to comprehend at times. Electric: ~$50-100 (billed every other month) Wifi/Cable/Landline: An extortionate $87.12 for slow internet that only works for Zoom calls about half the time. Do I really live in one of the tech cities of the future? Cellphone: $170 (This includes both service and paying off two new iPhones. We could have paid them off up front, but it was actually cheaper by like $50 to go on a payment plan.) Subscriptions: BritBox ($7.70), Spotify ($16.50), HBOMax ($16.50), We Hate Movies Patreon (my favorite podcast - $8.81). My parents pay for Netflix and my sister pays for Hulu, and we all share. Gym membership: None. K and I both run and do yoga with YouTube videos. Before the pandemic, we went to yoga classes pretty frequently in person. I’d like to do some online synchronous yoga classes but find it hard to make time. Pet expenses: Varies, but I budget $50 per month and also include an emergency fund for my cat’s vet bills in our sinking fund. She’s 11 years old and probably asthmatic, so I know her vet bills are going to increase over time. Car payment / insurance: We own our car outright. Insurance billed yearly is $2,097, about $174 per month. Regular therapy: $0 Paid hobbies: Nothing regular, sporadic language classes and art supplies. Other expenses: Right now I’m doing a certificate to hopefully help with a career change. The total cost for tuition is about $5k and we already saved it up (included in our 'sinking fund') basically through spending less during the pandemic. I’ve paid two quarters so far, and the last quarter (due in March) will be a bit more - about $2.3k. __________ Day 1 Morning: I wake up at 5:30 am. Ever since the pandemic, my sleep schedule has been shot. At first, I was so happy not to have to leave the house at 7:15 for my 45 minute bus commute and I slept in a lot. But the stress (and maybe getting old?) has made me an early riser, no matter how much I try to sleep in. I do value my early mornings with just me, my cat, and my coffee, though. I start work at 8 am and begin by triaging my emails. I have a bunch of deadlines this week, so it’s busier than usual. My job tends to be very seasonal, and sometimes I have a ton of work and sometimes I have none and can work on other longer-term projects. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and place a Whole Foods delivery order for the following day at 10:30 am. We made a meal plan and put everything in the cart the day before ($117.36, including tip). Afternoon: I have my lunch break from noon to 1 pm. It doesn’t really matter when I take my lunch break, since I’m salaried, but the others in my office are hourly so in the before times we used to always close our office during the same time. I have a piece of leftover delivery pizza and some spinach risotto that I made a few days earlier. I also have half a brownie – the last one from a batch I made a few days ago (K gets the other half). He also has leftovers for lunch. I should say at this point that both K and I are lucky enough to have been working almost entirely from home since early March. An area near Seattle was one of the first places to get hit by COVID-19, and my state and both of our employers have been taking it very seriously ever since. Working from home hasn’t always been easy since we live in a 600-square foot apartment. Also, there is a three-story townhouse being built directly next door to us and I can hear the pounding in my dreams at this point. Around 2 pm, I go for a 2-mile run. I feel like some money diarists tend to toss off things like “oh, I went for an easy 7 mile run,” at the drop of a hat, so I want to be clear – running for 2 miles isn’t easy for me; it’s exhausting, annoying, sweaty, and generally gross. Also I am very slow. But it has kept me sane during quarantine. Meanwhile, my husband goes to our local pet store to get an enzymatic cleaner (our cat peed in one of our suitcases… I think it’s probably a lost cause, but it was basically brand new, so worth a try) and special weight-loss cat food. Our cat is an 11-year-old rescue from the Humane Society and she is a chonky girl. We had to sign a waiver when we adopted her, saying that we understood that she was very overweight, lol. Our vet recommended a special diet food, rather than just restricting her intake as we have been doing, so we will give it a try ($78). My husband also stops buy our local wine store and picks up two bottles. We’ve been doing a dry January, so this will be our first drink for a while ($27.53). I have a phone interview scheduled for 4 pm – just a preliminary interview with an internal recruiter. It’s the first ‘corporate’ job interview I’ve ever had, since I’ve been in academia my entire life. I’m trying to make a pivot into instructional design / training and development. I’m just excited to get an interview. It seems to go pretty well, but who knows. They tell me they will probably get back to me by the end of this week. Evening: My husband whips up a random meal of fridge remnants – pesto pasta with sausage and a fridge salad with feta and bell peppers. It’s pretty tasty with a little Sauvignon Blanc. During dinner, we play a card game we call gin rummy, although it bears no resemblance to the actual game. After dinner, I make a chocolate cake with orange buttercream frosting and we watch Cobra Kai. Daily total: $222.89 Day 2 Morning: Up early again, a piece of toast for breakfast (very exciting). We’re out of eggs until our Whole Foods order arrives. I’m working on creating some tedious but necessary spreadsheets this morning. Noon: Our Whole Foods order arrives around noon. Excitement! They’ve given us a half-rotten bag of romaine lettuce and substituted pecans for hazelnuts. I should probably just double mask and go to Trader Joe’s myself (our regular spot, only a 5-minute walk from my apartment). I’m just getting anxious about these new variants. I have leftover meatloaf and spinach risotto again for lunch. Lots of meetings and more organizing spreadsheets in the afternoon. Around 3 pm, I go for my daily ritual - a 20-minute walk around my neighborhood. It’s still raining slightly but I need to get out. Halfway through the walk, I get an email from my apartment manager telling me the apartment will no longer accept debit card payments, direct deposit, or credit card payments for paying rent. In other words, only checks or money orders (?!). Ugh. Our lease is up in 4 months and we will not be renewing our lease. Our last apartment manager was a gambling addict who may have been stealing people’s identities, but by God, he kept things working. Ever since they fired him, this place has been going downhill. Evening: I check my bank statements to update my budget spreadsheet and realize that I have been billed the wrong amount of rent. They actually charged me less than they should have. I don’t trust my apartment manager not to start charging me a late fee or something for this, so I call them up. They are baffled by how to fix this, which you would think would be the one thing you would want to get right, if you’re renting out apartments. K cooks dinner – steak with a Roquefort sauce and glazed brussels sprouts. It’s from a French cookbook we recently bought and it is delicious. I work on classwork for my certificate program while he cooks. After dinner, I do the dishes and buy the 13th season of RuPaul’s Drag Race. I watch the first episode – lots of shocking twists and turns! I’m planning to watch the rest of the episodes together with my younger sister, M ($22.01). Daily total: $22.01 Day 3 Morning: K has an 8 am dentist appointment, so he takes off early. He already paid for the work last month, so there’s no charge. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and get to work checking my emails. It’s 8:20 am and the construction crew building a townhouse next door is blasting mariachi music. I’m glad someone is having fun. At least the sun is coming out. Someone at work has made a critical error, but it wasn’t me, thank God. I was the one who found out about it, but it’s still going to cause a big old headache for me. I’m ready to be done with this job. K and I go for a run so that I can exhaust myself enough to no longer be furious about said careless error. Noon: I have leftover spinach risotto and meatloaf again – exciting. I’m busy at work but frankly, not a lot going on other than that. Still no word about fixing my rent payments. I’m not really willing to pursue this any further at this point. Evening: I start making chili (Turkey Chili from the NY Times) and cornbread (from my new cookbook, Jubilee). K is doing some work on our investments when he announces that, somehow, a transfer was scheduled from our checking account to our savings account of $55k (?!) We obviously don’t have $55k in our checking account, so we start frantically trying to figure out what’s going on. Numerous phone calls later, we still don’t know if that was a hack, if my husband somehow mistakenly scheduled the transfer himself, or if the bank messed it up. Either way, it doesn’t seem like any harm was done since the bank with our checking account just declined the transaction. But it seems really strange and worrisome. We get to work changing the passwords on all of our accounts, just in case it was some kind of hack. After dinner (and chocolate cake), I have a Zoom happy hour with a local friend. We occasionally see each other outside but it’s nice to have a longer chat from the comfort of our living rooms. We both love murder mysteries, so we signed up for a service where a company sends us letters with clues and we try to solve the mystery together. It’s a fun way to stay connected and look forward to something during the pandemic. The service costs about $15 per month, but I paid for it in lump sum for 3 months, so it’s not included in my budget above. I drink some wine and we vent about work (we work at the same place) before getting started on the puzzle. Daily total: $0 Day 4 Morning: I sleep in a bit, which is nice. Get up around 7 am. My parents are both getting their 2nd vaccine today – they’re both in their 70s and I am so relieved. I send my mom a “congratulations on being vaccinated!” text and we chat for a bit. I have leftover cornbread with honey and butter for breakfast – soooo good. Work is not particularly exciting today, but someone sends me a last-minute request for something that does not need to be so urgent. I feel annoyed. Still no word from the interviewers on Monday, and I’m beginning to suspect I wasn’t selected to move forward. Too bad. K pays for a Wordpress website for the year (it’s a work-related website, but sadly his work doesn’t reimburse him). It costs $92.48. Noon: The mariachi music is particularly loud today. I stand out on my balcony in the sun for a while and watch the workers. It’s been interesting seeing a house go up next door in real time, especially since I’m at home all the time. The workers are balancing on the top of the third story wall without, as far as I can see, anything like a safety line. It seems unsafe, but I presume they know what they’re doing. We booked a cabin for the upcoming weekend in the Hood Canal region of Washington to do some hiking and birdwatching. I want to be as safe as possible and not go to any grocery stores or risk spreading COVID in any way while I’m there, so I place another grocery order with Whole Foods just for some special treats for the weekend. The cabin has a small kitchen and a grill, so we’re planning to make a fancy steak salad on Saturday. I order chips and hummus, some fancy cheese and meats, Tate’s cookies (I’ve heard a lot of good things about these), a baguette, and the ingredients for the steak salad. I also order a few staples I forgot in our last order, like sweet potatoes, more coffee, and half and half. It comes to $87.41, including tip, but that does include like $30 worth of steak. For some reason, I can’t order a small amount of steak online, so I’m planning to freeze half of it for later. (I include this purchase in our vacation fund budget, rather than under our regular grocery budget). Around 2 pm, K makes a quick trip to our local wine store to buy an Oregon pinot noir and some port to enjoy at the cabin ($59.45). This store has an outdoor walk-up counter where you can tell the owner what you’re looking for, and he brings you some options (the store is way too small to allow customers to enter during Covid). It’s fun to chat with another human being, even briefly. Evening: After work, we spend a little time rebalancing our investing and retirement accounts. We decide to put more money into bonds and a little bit into REIT’s as a hedge against a potential crash or recession in the future. Then I start making dinner – Broken Eggs (Huevas Rotas) from the NY Times cooking site. You basically cook the potatoes in a skillet in water, spices, and olive oil, and then sauté them to crisp them up once the water evaporates. Then you add onion, lots of garlic, and finally some eggs. It is delicious. I eat it with leftover cornbread while watching RuPaul’s Drag Race season 13 with my sister – we watch the first two episodes. It’s full of twists and turns. A note about this – we have an elaborate procedure for watching shows together developed during quarantine whereby we start the show at the same with an earbud in one ear, while FaceTiming. I also have chocolate cake, of course. Later, I get an email that I’ve signed up for HBO on Amazon Prime. I definitely have not. I text my mom, who shares my account, and she tells me she signed up by mistake. I cancel right away and luckily they won’t charge us for it. Meanwhile, K is doing an online Japanese language class over Zoom. He’s been interested in learning ever since we went to Japan last January. I lived in Japan for 3 years so I was able to take us around to a lot of more obscure places and he really enjoyed the trip – it was a blast. K starts a YouTube yoga class (from Do Yoga With Me – my favorite channel) and I join him for part of it before bed around 10 pm. Daily total: $239.34 Day 5 Morning: I get up around 7 am and we go for a run first thing. I prefer running early in the morning because there are fewer people to avoid during COVID. We do a different route today – it’s longer (3 miles) but has fewer hills. It’s a slog, as always, but I feel good when I get back right around 8 am. I jump straight onto my computer to start checking work emails and my husband makes us avocado and egg toast for breakfast - it is absolutely delicious. We talk about how our bathroom smells distinctly mildewy (yay for being a grown-up because I guess this is what we talk about now) and we buy two big buckets of DampRid on Amazon ($26.60). I’ve found this to be a necessity in Seattle. Mid-morning, I take a break from work and start packing for our trip to the cabin. Noon: I have leftover potatoes and cornbread for lunch, and my husband has the leftover chili. We finish getting ready to leave and head out right after lunch, taking a half day. The only problem is that I have attend a meeting at 3:30 pm, so we head out hoping to get there in time. Our cabin is near Quilcene in the Hood Canal region of Washington, about a 2 hour drive or a 2 hour ferry ride + drive. We are initially planning to take the ferry both ways, but realize that we mistimed the ferry departure, so we drive the whole way instead. Luckily, there’s little traffic mid-day, and we arrive at our Airbnb around 3:00 pm. The Airbnb is beautiful! It’s a small cabin handmade by the owner, whose house is next door. It’s very rural, with a beautiful view. It’s tiny, but has a little kitchen and a waterfall-style shower with river rocks on the floor. It’s a great place to get away for a short time. Luckily, it also has good reception and I’m able to sit in on my meeting with no problems. My husband also does a little work, and then at 5 pm we’re free! In our planning, we decided to get takeout on Friday night, since the little kitchen isn’t designed for any serious cooking. We call ahead to a local restaurant to order burgers (one of only 2 restaurants in the whole town). It’s around 5:30 pm and the place is deserted. It’s a microbrewery, but they tell us they haven’t been making beer since COVID-19 hit. None of the workers are wearing masks when I walk in, but they put them on when they see I’m wearing one. I pick up our order - a few bottled beers and burgers and fries ($49.52 including tip). Back at our Airbnb, we watch Big Trouble in Little China and enjoy our very messy, but delicious, burgers (it costs $4.39 to rent). The movie is very campy but fun. I love silly action movies, as you will see with my other viewing choices. We wrap up the night in a very exciting fashion, eating chocolate cake and watching old episodes of the original Star Trek. Daily total: $80.51 Day 6 Morning & noon: When we wake up around 8 am, the weather is looking thankfully clear and even sunny! We were expecting rain, so we’re really glad. We decide to go hiking today, and we head out before even having breakfast, with snacks and lunches packed. Our first destination is a hike called Mt. Zion, but unfortunately, we run into enough snow 2 miles before the trailhead that we decide to turn back. We don’t have any traction for our Subaru and don’t want to risk getting stuck on a very narrow mountain road. Instead, we drive another hour or so to the Lena Lake trailhead, a very popular and less strenuous trail. It’s about 7.5 miles roundtrip with 1200 feet of elevation gain. By this time, it’s around 11:30, but luckily there is still parking. It’s a great hike up, and we run into relatively few people. We always mask up whenever we pass anyone, as does about 50% of the people we meet. The others… not so much. Around a mile from the lake, we start to run into snow. It’s turned into a beautiful sunny day, and I’m loving seeing all this snow! It’s a bit slippery, but not too bad. We make it to the lake mid-day, and it’s super jammed – there’s only a small viewpoint accessible, so everyone is crowded in there. I feel a bit uneasy with all the unmasked people, but we manage to find a spot away from the crowd and sit down to eat our lunch of apples, chips, and energy bars. There are a ton of robber jays there (Canada Jays) which try to eat our chips. It is fun watching them, but I’m annoyed to see some kids feeding them – it’ll just make them that much more aggressive. Bad trail manners. On our way back down, we get stuck behind a group of 5 unmasked adults, who refuse to cede the narrow trail to faster hikers. I’m a slow hiker myself, so, to be clear, I’m not angry at slower walkers being on the trail but have some self-awareness and let people pass! especially if you’re going to go hiking in a big group during a pandemic! We finally get back down and head back to our Airbnb. Evening: Back home, we explore some of the trails our Airbnb host has set up around his extensive property, and then relax on the deck. The sun is breaking through the clouds and it feels wonderful to sit out in nature and feel the sun on my back. We open up a bottle of wine and have a few pre-dinner snacks (more chips and hummus). For this night, we brought ingredients to make a steak salad. Our Airbnb host has kindly set up a charcoal grill for us, so we grilled the steak and toast some bread on the side. We eat dinner while watching the truly terrible Jean Claude Van Damme movie Bloodsport and finish up the very last of my chocolate cake. It’s amazing that anyone ever let Van Damme act… or should I say ‘act.’ I also have a Tate’s chocolate chip cookie or two, accompanied by a little port. My husband and I are truly very old people at heart, so we finish up the night watching a few episodes of Columbo. Daily total: $0 Day 7 Morning: Unfortunately, K had insomnia last night, so he sleeps in pretty late. I drink coffee in bed and enjoy looking at the view out our big windows. Once he’s up, we get packed up and write a thank you note for our host. It was a great stay. One of my big hobbies is birding and K enjoys wildlife photography, so we go out to look for some lifers! (The first time you see a new species of bird). Did I mention we are very old people in (relatively) young bodies? We first go to Dosewallips State Park and see some bald eagles, great blue herons, lots of various ducks, and a flock of Canada Geese, which, strangely, includes a domesticated gray goose. He’s much larger than the Canada Geese and seems to be watching over them. It’s kind of cute. Unfortunately, a lot of the birds are too far from shore to be seen clearly. Our next stop is Point No Point (I love all the sad & disappointed names that early Westerner explorers gave places in the Washington/Oregon coast), a popular birding spot. We see a ton of birds here, and I can understand why it’s so well-known - Red-Breasted Mergansers, Western Grebes, Common Goldeneyes, Pacific Loons, and a few others I can’t identify yet. Most excitingly though, we see a whole pile of otters! They’re lounging around together on a rock just offshore and a ton of people are watching. We watch as they all slip off the rock and go hunting in the shore. It’s my first otter sighting in the wild, and it’s so cool! We also see some seals and possibly a sea lion. It’s a great spot for wildlife. We eat some snacks (hummus, chips, some sliced meat & cheese) before we head out. I really want to come back to this area another time and explore further, but K has decided that we need to get back home in time for the Big Game. We take the 3:00 pm ferry back to Seattle ($16.40) and get home around 3:45 pm. I veg out at home while my husband watches football. He’s a Patriots fan but he still loves Tom Brady (??) so he’s happy to see Florida win. I don’t understand sports team loyalties at all, but whatever, I’m glad he’s happy. We order from a new Indian place called Spice Box and get vindaloo, roganjosh, and vegetables pakora – so tasty ($53.96). Happily, there’s enough left over for lunch the next day, since I have no plans for what we will eat yet! I’m really dreading work the next day, as I know that it will be obnoxious. I want to get out of my job so badly, but it doesn’t look like I’m going on to the next interview stage for the job I interviewed no back on Monday. I’m feeling kind of down about it. I try to stay positive and promise that I’ll apply for at least 2-3 new jobs next week. I bake up some frozen cookie dough I had in the freezer and feel sorry for myself. We end the night by watching another episode of Columbo. Daily total: 70.36 Food + Drink: $395.23 Fun / Entertainment: $26.40 Home + Health: $26.60 Clothes + Beauty: $0 Transport: $16.40 Other: $170.48 Grand Total: $635.11 I think this week was pretty normal for us. Obviously we spent a bit more than usual due to the weekend cabin trip, but nothing outrageous. Our largest consumer spending category is definitely food and drink – we live in a very busy area of Seattle with tons of restaurants and bars so believe it or not, we actually used to spend even more on eating out. We still try to support our local places by getting takeout or delivery during the pandemic and even occasionally getting a few drinks outside. I spent more than usual on groceries due to stocking up for the weekend away.
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