Up to now, I've been in the "Apple wants to do the right thing" camp. But my viewpoint is starting to change.
Here's how I spotted a $5M/year scam on the App Store, in 5 minutes flat:
First, the ratings of this app: 4.6 stars, with over 83,146 ratings, and a glowing 5-star "featured" review:

★★★★★
Astronomy fun
I’ve been using the app for a few months now and decided to add some things to the review. First of all it definitely lives up to my expectations even this far down the line! The daily updates astronomy news is what makes me come back for more and in my opinion what makes this app stand out from the rest of the stargazing apps out there. That doesn’t mean the stargazing functions are not great, because they are, it just means that it news section is my favorite part. Ok the rest of the text is from my original review. Lovely app that really does what it advertises. If you are looking for something to keep you busy and at they same time learn from, this app is perfect! I have absolutely no idea how they do it, but just point your phone up the sky and move it around to identify Stars, planets, satellites constellations and other awesome things. While previously, you could only analyze constellations with charts, maps, telescopes or pay a visit to the nearest planetarium today you can use this mobile app to uncover a vast amount of information about what’s happening overhead at any given time! Simply amazing how far along the technology has come. Not only can you do that with this app, but you also get daily updated astronomy news to keep you updated what’s going on in our wonderful universe. Definitely a must have.

Now let's slide over to the next review in the carousel:

★★☆☆☆
Not what it advertises
Have to hit continue three times upon opening app. The third screen is Reg update screen with a small option to “restore” at the bottom of the screen. I accidentally hit continue the upteenth time I opened the app and instantly received email stating it was going to charge me $9.99 a week. No thanks.Point screen at one part of th sky infront of my house says one thing then point it to the back of the house and ironically it says the same. Somehow the sun is up in the dead of night and should be shinning at me through the pitch black sky. I’d post photos if this review had an option or I could send to admin IF I had the option but can’t find support anywhere.

Hmm... maybe that was an outlier. Let's check the next one:

★☆☆☆☆
Have to resubscribe every time you use it
Very disappointed. I signed up to use it and it was a decent tool the first time I used it, but when I went to use it a second time (on the same iPhone 11 I bought it and used it on the first time, it made me sign up again as if I had no subscription. It worked fine the second time, but still I had to take the time to resubcribe. Then, the third time I went to use it it did the same thing and I didn’t want to take the time to sign up again, plus I wanted to check my iTunes account to make sure I wasn’t paying multiple subscription fees for the same app, so I didn’t use it that night. The fourth and fifth time, the same thing. Very poorly designed in that way. I should be able to sign up for the recurring subscription, as it states it is, and every time I open the app on my phone it should recognize me as a paid subscriber and let me use the app. What a pain in the ____!!

Ok, this definitely warrants to keep scrolling:

★☆☆☆☆
Seems like a monetary vampire app that’s more advertisement than actual app
I installed this to track stars not for the app to immediately try to sell me on a better version of the app, AND a premium service with reoccurring billing immediately after opening. I naturally wasn’t impressed or lured in, but the real problem was the ad in the app wouldn’t let me actually use it until I tapped a tiny bit of text at the bottom. Please, stop doing this with free apps. Now I DEFINITELY don’t want anything to do with the paid app or the recurring service. It’s probably further riddled with micro-transactions, which is a problem I see more and more lately. Since the app asked me to rate it twice in the first ten minutes of use, here you go. Also the compass is bad and inaccurate. Looks like your advertisement didn’t work....

Now I'm starting to see a pattern here:

★☆☆☆☆
I’d give zero starts if could!
First of all took forever to even get to use the app because of all the garbage up selling. Then had to sing up for a trial to even use it since they demand $9.99 month before even using to see if it’s worth it. It’s not and within 5 mins I closed out and cancelled trial. It’s literally the only trial I’ve closed out that fast.I point to the sky and it shows the moon and some other stars that I absolutely wasn’t even pointing the phone at. Not even close to it. Then I go to a different location and screen doesn’t change at all. You have to manually move the screen and then you have no idea what location those images are actually at since screen doesn’t lock onto what it’s actually looking at.I can use a star map in a book and get better help than this garbage app. Don’t waste your time or money on this at all.

Last one:

★☆☆☆☆
Useless even if you pay
I thought this would’ve been a great app. Unfortunately, even after paying it’s pretty outrageous cost, it still could not identify a constellation. In fact, it left it up to me to identify ANYTHING. The App was perfectly happy when I tagged Jupiter as the North Star (I am in Southern California). Other ‘free’ apps work significantly better. Don’t spend your monthly “subscription” (what is a subscription here? Does our astronomical view change that much each month!? For a monthly fee why can I not get an approximate daily view of where the ISS is? Or the new NeoWISE comet? Or show me a constellation, or a planet? ) This app did absolutely ZERO of any of these things. I got a better view when I pointed my App and Camera at my lawn ..😢

Let's dig in with AppFigures and look at the star breakdown of just the reviews - there's only 835 of them (!):
★★★★★ 109
★★★★☆ 6
★★★☆☆ 9
★★☆☆☆ 31
★☆☆☆☆ 680
Their average stars?
1.6 stars
ONE. POINT. SIX.
In these reviews, people are desperately trying to warn others not to make the same mistake they did:
​

★☆☆☆☆
DO NOT PURCHASE
This app charges a ridiculous amount of money to use it ten dollars a week ****** Definitely not worth that much money it really should be illegal!!!!!!!!!!!!!************

​

★☆☆☆☆
PREDATORY COMPANY
PREDATORY COMPANY - DO NOT DOWNLOAD - THEY WILL ROB YOU

​

★☆☆☆☆ Thieves Stay Away
I downloaded this app and canceled my subscription within 5 minutes and guess what they charged me 9.99 Surprised Apple is providing platform to this thieves.

​

★☆☆☆☆
Hard to believe these reviews are genuine
I don’t write reviews, but this one warrant one. This one has all the signs of a scam. I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt I am. [...] Apple should be worried since this app has over 70k of 5 star

​

★☆☆☆☆
BAIT AND SWITCH
This app requires a subscription to use at all. There’s no trial/test/preview, just enter your credit card details. Just charge for the app, not this bait and switch. Is apple reading this!? Terrible experience. Ffs

Let's look at their ratings over time. Blue line is new positive ratings per day. This is a completely unnatural pattern here, when overlaid with their download numbers.
The featured 5-star review is there because the scammers made sure to also long press on it and mark it as "Helpful", alongside submitting all their fake, bought ratings.
This scam has been operating from Indonesia for years, although "operating" is giving it too much credit. The app was last updated in 2019, so they are literally sitting and collecting the stolen money.
When you download and open the app, you HAVE to start a $10/week subscription to proceed. UNREAL.
Apple is doing nothing. In fact, they're even sending the scammers a cool $400k per month.
The scam: https://apps.apple.com/ca/app/star-gazeid1474038335
Their "website": http://textystories.com
Another image from their support website reads: "Life is wonderful, let our games be part of it!"
This is some utter BS. Honest developers are getting fooled by all sides. I am furious.

TLDR: Due to a confluence of factors (none of which are technical analysis), I believe a perfect storm is likely forming for a monster, historic ER occurring sometime in late January. The initial main factor for this was that COVID issues were causing a delay in the iPhone 12 launch, pushing it into to this quarter, but that led me to discover numerous other factors now making up my thesis. I believe not only will earnings grow, but the multiple could even expand. How to play it: calls dated end of Jan or mid Feb.

Analysis:

Happy hangover day, fellow autists. I believe opportunities are rare to know when an ER is going to blow it out of the water by enough to overcome IV crush based on more than just a hunch, and when they occur once or twice per year you should swing big. When I play earnings releases, I’m almost always just a seller of spreads so that I can profit off of theta/IV crush surrounding the ER (theta gang always wins). This time however, I’ve bought outright calls. Here is what I’m seeing with Apple:

The iPhone 12 delay could mean huge YoY comparisons.

What kicked all this off was that two months ago I realized we could be heading for huge numbers this quarter due to an atypical delay in the launch of the newest iPhone. Typically new iPhones are announced in mid-September with preorders beginning immediately and shipments beginning before the end of the month. However this year because of COIVD delays the launch date got pushed into October. The iPhone 12 preorders began mid-October with shipments a week later, and the iPhone 12 mini and Max began preorders November 6. And that means no sales of the new models counted in the quarter ended Sept. 30 (Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter)as they usually do. This year all of those opening day sales have fallen into the upcoming fiscal Q1, setting up a potentially huge quarter in sales and making for easy YoY comparisons right out of the gate. Here’s a Fortune article on the delay of the launch.

The “super cycle” rumors appear to be true.

As a lover of new tech, I always have to remind myself that the average person doesn’t care about incremental new features as much as I do. So when I heard rumors earlier this year that Apple could be facing a “super cycle” of upgrades due to 5G, I was skeptical. How much does the average person really care about spotty 5G service enough to jump on a new iPhone? But based on reports starting to come out, those rumors appear to be correct. I’ve seen a few articles suggesting a super cycle not seen since the iPhone 6.
Here’s a Yahoo Finance article on Wedbush’s analysis.
Here are some notable quotes from that article since I know we don’t read around here.

"Based on our recent Asia checks we believe the supply chain is anticipating low to mid 90 million iPhone unit builds … a roughly 35% increase from our original and Street forecasts," says Ives, who covers AAPL stock for Wedbush.
Compare that to the firm's expectations for iPhone 12 unit sales over time. Three months ago, Wedbush expected 65 million to 70 million unit builds for the December quarter; it raised its outlook to 75 million units in late October; and in mid-December, it set a "stretch goal" in the mid-80 million range.
Wall Street broadly sees AAPL selling 217 million iPhones in the company's fiscal 2021, but Wedbush's bull case is "north of 240 million units (250 million could be in the cards – an eye popping figure)" that would easily surpass the 231 million units the company sold in its fiscal 2015.
"We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple and the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014 based on our analysis.".

Here is an AppleInsider article, although it quotes the same research at Wedbush. Notable quote:

That bump in production would represent a 30% year-over-year increase in smartphone models produced, and is also well ahead of current Wall Street expectations, Ives wrote.

It’s anecdotal, but I personally skipped the iPhone 11 upgrade because I was perfectly content with my XS Max, however I did buy the 12 Pro Max.

The iPhone 12 sales mix:

It’s not just that phone sales will be up on the iphone 12 launch, it’s the mix within those sales. Typically when Apple launches phones they sell more of the of the entry level new phones than they do the premium, because the total addressable market is bigger. That doesn’t appear to be the case this time. As early as September people were reporting that Apple was making more higher end iPhone 12 models than entry-level handsets anticipating a shift in demand, and they appear to have been correct. Last year the entry level iPhone 11s outsold the premium iPhone 11s by a three to one margin. This year almost immediately after launch people were reporting that the premium iPhone 12s were selling as much as the entry models. Since then, there have been reports trickling out that the premium iPhone 12s appear to actually be outselling the entry level versions.

Apple sold out of nearly everything they make for Christmas.

See further below for one of the reasons this may have happened, in both my “macro” and “risks” sections.
Apple introduced a slough of new products from iMacs to watches this year, and they sold out of all of them. The list of sold-out products at Christmas included the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max; iPad, iPad Pro, iPad Air, and iPad Mini; MacBook Air and Pro; iMac and iMac Pro; HomePod mini, and AirPods Max. Here’s a Barron’s article mentioning the sell outs.
Apple wearables, I would argue, are now what economists call Veblen goods. These are unique products where the demand curve actually increases as the price increases. This can happen in goods such as wine, where the consumer lacks the knowledge in how to evaluate the product so they take pricing as a signal of quality. But another reason you can get that skewed demand curve is if the product conveys status. One example of this is sports cars. You can buy cars with 90% of the performance of the ultra top end cars for 30% of the price, but that’s not the point of owning them, is it? How often are you really out at the track? Lambo isn’t in competition with $50k sports cars. They could raise the price $50k per car and people who can afford them would just want them more. Louis Vuitton bags and $50,000 Birkin purses are more examples. In fact with Birkin they not only constantly raise prices, they forbid people from buying them. You have to spend a lot of money on other lower tier products before you’re “allowed” to even buy a Birkin bag. This just makes new money women want them even more.
Those are dramatic examples of course and Apple isn’t behaving that way, but Apple just introduced very overpriced, new over-the-ear headphones which cost almost twice as much as the leading competitor, and yet...Apple sold out of every single color in the first two weeks and hit a three month waiting list by Christmas on a product that I would assume due to its high pricing has very fat margins. Apple charging twice as much makes them more appealing, not less, because wearables are worn and thus seen by your peers (and the opposite sex).

The Twitter rumor mill is reporting parts moving at a brisk pace

I can’t track down the things I’ve read here and there on Twitter and I’m starting to run out of steam here, so you may have to do some searching on your own, but people who usually track movement of parts through the companies forming Apple’s supply chain and normally have a good track record with their reports have reported that parts are moving through the chain at a very brisk pace. This is addressed some in the reports on the iPhone supply chain in my earlier links.

App sales are crushing it.

Thanks probably in part to quarantine, app sales have been crushing it and grew ~35% this December compared to ~17% the prior year, meaning sales have grown at twice the pace.

Reoccurring revenue bundle numbers will be announced

The biggest thing I’ve learned from 2020 is that nothing matters more to the market than the narrative surrounding the reoccurring revenue bundle...aka subscriptions. A company announces its cutting its dividend, but then tells you that’s because its going to pour all that money into boosting its subscriptions? The stock skyrockets. Look at Disney. ATT may be able to pull this off as well if it can convince people of that narrative with WarneHBO max and cut its dividend to pour it into content, but that’s a big “if” for them.
Apple launched their new reoccurring revenue bundle this year. I personally signed up for the premium tier and now owe Apple $30 per month for the rest of my life. I was already paying them to backup my phone to the cloud, and now their bundle has thrown me into Apple Music, Apple TV+, etc. I am firmly entrenched in the Apple universe whether I like it or not.
It is these reoccurring revenue numbers that offer the possibility of earnings multiple expansion.

RISKS

Are sellouts due to high demand, or due to COVID-related production problems? I don’t know. Based on the reports I’ve read, some of which have been linked earlier in my post, it sounds like everything is running full speed in China and the supply chain is running at near or above a record clip. One possible risk is that this was not the case earlier this year and thus Apple sold out of things because they hadn’t produced enough heading into Christmas. I personally believe that production may have taken a huge hit early in the calendar year, but by mid to late 2020 this was no longer a significant issue. I also believe that even if sales have taken a slight hit due to production, the market wouldn’t really care. Markets are forward looking. They know COVID has impacted things globally, and even if Apple reports sales difficulties they will be paired with significantly increased guidance for Q2. New reports have suggested that Apple has had to increase its iPhone production plans for 2021 by 20-30% because of strong demand An announcement like that is not a recipe for a stock crash.
Macro factors causing a crash. A lot of people around here appear to be scared of an impending crash. This seems to be based on the simple idea that stocks have run up a lot and therefore must crash. A reversion to the mean is imminent. I don’t see it that way and I think the economy is more complex than that. Just because something has gone up a lot does not mean it’s going to crash. People have been warning of a California real estate crash for 70 years.
I’m a little bit older than you guys (by probably about 10-15 years) and I can remember the market frenzy of the dot.com boom. A lot of people were saying the same thing then, and while they were ultimately proven right, they were very early. I remember seeing another year to year and a half of enormous gains after hearing all those warnings. Of course the problem with musical chairs is that we never know when the music will stop, but I would argue if anything stocks are roughly fairly valued, not dangerously overvalued.
As we go into 2021, we face the following conditions: a vaccine roll out that sometime between now and late ‘21 will lead us into a v-shaped recovery. The Krugman argument for this vision, and The Bloomberg argument for this vision. We also just had the Fed reaffirm 0% interest rates and the continuation of QE. Add to all of that very easy YoY earnings comps for the first two quarters of this year and this is not a recipe for a crash, it’s a recipe for a steady market melt up. Where are the rich supposed to put all their money in a 0% interest rate environment? 0% pushes up the value of all asset classes, and this is especially true of real estate and stonks. Generally speaking, predicting macro economic movements is a losing game, but all of those things combined with the easy YoY comps means I don’t feel the need to be concerned of an impending correction for at least the next two quarters.
A much smaller factor but still a factor, I have seen it suggested that Apple will be among the larger beneficiaries of the stimulus checks going out, although those have not started rolling out until just now so that may have an impact on Q2 if any.
Bad subscription numbers
If subscriptions to Apple One flopped, this could significantly overshadow sales and earnings numbers. I personally feel Apple isn’t likely to seriously miscalculate predictions on a subscription bundle because they have their market dialed in, but I don’t know that for sure.
Sales could have cratered in October
Sales often drop a little in the weeks preceding a phone launch. What if phone sales tanked during the delays waiting for an iPhone 12? That could be bad. I’m encouraged by the fact that iPhone 11 models appeared to still be having good sales numbers when the iPhone 12 was launched (see links earlier in this post), but I don’t really know what October sales look like.
COVID could have tanked all phone sales.
This report says all phone activations generally tanked 23% on Christmas Day. Two thoughts I have on that, that number is for all phone activations, not just iPhones. And two, that’s just for Christmas Day itself. There could be a wide array of reasons activations were down on that one day. To counter that, this report says the iPhone was the best selling 5G phone, even in October despite the phone not launching until the second half of that month. Additionally that article mentions pent up demand for 5G apple phones that sales are likely to be strong going forward.

Technical Analysis

I don’t believe in technical analysis. Charts don’t know any of the things I just explained, and are therefore, in my opinion, useless to me. Maybe somebody has figured out a system for charts to predict the future, but I am not that person.

Price Target

I don’t pretend to know things like that.

Fun rumors

I’m not big on speculative rumors and momentum type plays, but if that’s your thing there are certainly rumors in the air. The most famous of which is the rumor that Apple is back to working seriously on an EV Car. Another is reports are just coming out in the last day or two that Apple is seeing new successes in developing foldable tech. Whether these things will impact the stock price isn’t really my cup of tea, but if it’s yours those are two things to consider.

Is my post an attempt at a WSB pump and dump?

I’m under no allusions that my own WSB post is going to alter the trajectory of a $2.25 trillion company in any meaningful way. That sort of thing may work on a post-IPO company that hasn’t had its lockup expiration yet and thus has a tiny float (aka PLTR or numerous other recent “to the moon” meme stocks) with limited float. (That’s not to say those aren’t great companies or great trades. I’m just sayin’).

My positions:

I’m more conservative than most of WSB. While I love this place with all my heart and love you guys for it, I believe risking it all to chase screenshot-worthy gains is moronic and not the path to building real, long-term wealth. Thus my positions are probably more conservative than you’d expect.
I have 20% of my net worth tied up in Apple via LEAPs. 9/16/2022 AAPL $87.50 calls. I consider this to be essentially stock I hold for the long term. Delta is approaching 1 anyway so they practically are stock. Sometime in the depths of March I loaded up on FAANG LEAPs with the intention of actually holding them for years and then converting to shares. Those LEAPs were a little OTM at the time I bought them. I have no interest in day trading my significant LEAP positions so that’s going to sit there for the next two years.
But I also have put an additional 15% of my net worth into short term calls on Apple to play the ER. I have Feb 19 $130 calls which were about 10-15% OTM at the time I bought them. They are currently ITM. I also have 1/29 $135s and 1/29 $141s.
This puts 35% of my net worth into Apple.

How to get rich

I intend to cash out my short term calls after the ER, and I don’t intend to reinvest or roll them out because I suspect Apple will be fully valued by then and there are better plays out there. I intend to keep my LEAPS because I bought those for the very long term and because at the very least I should hold them until March to hit the long term capital gains tax rate.
I intend to take my profits from the calls and push them into shorting NNOX and XPEV, both of which have significant lockup expirations coming in mid to late February which I believe will significantly impact the stock prices in the short term. I have no interest in shorting XPEV right now, because you guys are crazy as fuck and for all I know EV stonks could all run up another 50% in the next month. Right about the time the Apple ER hits should be perfect.

Criticism

If you think I’m wrong, I would strongly encourage you to comment. I don’t give a fuck about looking correct or saving face but I give many fucks about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it.

The Most Important Factor

This ain’t my first day around here, and I know that DD is absolutely useless without rocketships, therefore: APPLE TO THE 🌙 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀.
Godspeed, fellow autists.

Hardware:
I think the smartest defensive move Facebook can make at this stage is doing whatever it takes to become a major player in consumer hardware. Even if they breakeven, or lose money on this endeavor it can be treated as user acquisition costs for the people who wouldn't make a Facebook account otherwise, or as a way to make Facebook accounts as sticky as possible to protect against people leaving the platform. Anecdotally, I've seen people that have preached "Facebook is evil" for years, say that not they will not ever delete their newly open accounts because if they did their Oculus hardware wouldn't work, and they'd lose all of their purchases.
Facebook is dominating the growing VR market with an iron fist. Non-advertising revenue grew 156% in Q4, and IDC estimates 3 million Quest 2's were sold in Q4. Oculus Quest 2 has stellar reviews, despite the mandatory Facebook account for use. Facebook's VR devices also use Messenger for messages, Workplace for enterprise, and I believe Facebook Horizon (which is integrated with the FB app) will eventually be the place users load into initially, and launch third party apps from.
High investment cost makes it unlikely that other social media company can compete with Facebook in hardware (especially AVR), and this should give Facebook a permanent utility advantage against its peers. The companies that could compete, big tech, and gaming giants seem unwilling to make the investment to compete. I think they're aware that Facebook is completely fine making $0 to be dominant in the VR space, and that's scared them away in addition to facts like VR being a relatively small market for them.Apple is rumored to be considering a release of a Quest-like headset in later 2022, but the device will be priced far above $1000 according to Mark Gurman.
VR is where I'm most confident in Facebook's ability to achieve its hardware dreams, but consumer AR is also an area where its only competition in terms of investments made is Apple. So I think their chances there are decent too. Facebook is working on long term AR glasses, but is also releasing Smartglasses in collaboration with Luxottica (Ray-Ban and Oakley) this year. There's also Facebook's line of smart video chatting devices, Portal.
Traditionally Listed Moats
Intangible assets consisting of the vast amount of data users have shared: sustained and growing, but people are also sharing things about themselves on other apps increasingly.
Growth of users means network effects still growing
Number and diversity of advertisers, and advertiser verticals still growing
Competition?
There is rising social media competition, and always the threat of new entrants. That being said, competition seems to carve out niches, so they aren't competing as directly as we'd think. The closest thing to Facebook the Blue app, for connecting with family and friends is Instagram. Competing apps can have similar features, but the main utilities are different. Tik Tok is mostly a short video app, Youtube is a long video app, Twitter is a breaking news app, Reddit is a communities app, etc. Facebook's utility first and foremost is connecting with REAL people who's identity you can verify, like friends and family. Like previously mentioned, the closest competitor is Instagram.
Messaging
There can be lack of differentiation here, but Messenger tied to Facebook, Instagram, Portal and Oculus. I suspect it'll be tied to future hardware as well. Whatsapp has network effects, and may one day have lock-in comparable to Chinese super apps (at least that's what's being worked towards). iMessage is the the main competitor here, because they are automatically installed on every iPhone
Misc
I think Facebook Marketplace, the Craigslist alternative benefits greatly from Facebook using real identities, and is an overall better product. If you want to sell something locally FB Marketplace is the best option, and I think it's a strong reason to have an account. Usage of Marketplace is growing.
The integration with Jio in India, and importance in Indian society is worth mentioning for Whatsapp.
Facebook Groups, have competition in the form of Reddit, and Discord. The edge here will be real identities, and the tools they are building to make moderating a Facebook group profitable (subscriptions, etc)
The only other pure "Real Identity social network" is Linkedin is a professional network.
Problems
No young people use Facebook? This seems to be a US centric cliche, as Facebook is popular among all age demographics around the world. According to Pew Research 76% of people 18-24 use Facebook, only superseded by Youtube. For teens in 2018, 51% of teens used Facebook which is good in my opinion for a social network not targeted to teens like Tik Tok. I personally think the utility of Facebook kicks in after college age, but regardless if there is a problem, I think the cure can be User Acquisition through hardware.
Chance of mass exodus? again, mitigated by the lock-in of hardware, but this is a concern of mine based on Facebook's reputation. 1. Privacy, there is truth to some criticism here, because Facebook's business model does depend on data collection, and in many ways is opposed to strict definitions of privacy, but much of it is also pushed by myth like "Facebook sells data". Facebook has the same business model as its advertising funded peers, but perception is what matters, and Facebook is losing the perception battle. 2. Politics, In my opinion has been half of Facebook's reputation problem. Recently Zuck said that they are trying to make Facebook less political by not recommending political groups, and lowering reach on political posts. Also, Donald Trump being gone should make the next 4 years less politically controversial. Since Facebook is in the business of advertising, and people can mostly say what they want, there's always the small chance of a #DeleteFacebook movement reaching critical mass based on these themes.
Being banned in countries? Mitigated by becoming a hardware player, but this is an unlikely outcome for many reasons that my hands are too tired to elaborate on.
Apple's privacy stance and iOS 14: The hit to revenue estimates I've seen are between 1%-7%, but it could also be a boost to revenue since third party signals being reduced will give the edge to whoever has the best first party signals, we'll have wait to see. This is something to watch closely, but transferring third party data into first party data by having ecommerce on the platform through initiatives like Facebooks shops, and Instagram shopping can be the cure. Also, being in control of hardware mitigates this risk
Antitrust- generally not concerned
Privacy as a theme that is adversarial to advertising - slightly concerned but I don't think ad funded business models are going anywhere, many people like not paying for things
Might add more to this later...

Hardware:
I think the smartest defensive move Facebook can make at this stage is doing whatever it takes to become a major player in consumer hardware. Even if they breakeven, or lose money on this endeavor it can be treated as user acquisition costs for the people who wouldn't make a Facebook account otherwise, or as a way to make Facebook accounts as sticky as possible to protect against people leaving the platform. Anecdotally, I've seen people that have preached "Facebook is evil" for years, say that not they will not ever delete their newly open accounts because if they did their Oculus hardware wouldn't work, and they'd lose all of their purchases.
Facebook is dominating the growing VR market with an iron fist. Non-advertising revenue grew 156% in Q4, and IDC estimates 3 million Quest 2's were sold in Q4. Oculus Quest 2 has stellar reviews, despite the mandatory Facebook account for use. Facebook's VR devices also use Messenger for messages, Workplace for enterprise, and I believe Facebook Horizon (which is integrated with the FB app) will eventually be the place users load into initially, and launch third party apps from.
High investment cost makes it unlikely that other social media company can compete with Facebook in hardware (especially AVR), and this should give Facebook a permanent utility advantage against its peers. The companies that could compete, big tech, and gaming giants seem unwilling to make the investment to compete. I think they're aware that Facebook is completely fine making $0 to be dominant in the VR space, and that's scared them away in addition to facts like VR being a relatively small market for them.Apple is rumored to be considering a release of a Quest-like headset in later 2022, but the device will be priced far above $1000 according to Mark Gurman.
VR is where I'm most confident in Facebook's ability to achieve its hardware dreams, but consumer AR is also an area where its only competition in terms of investments made is Apple. So I think their chances there are decent too. Facebook is working on long term AR glasses, but is also releasing Smartglasses in collaboration with Luxottica (Ray-Ban and Oakley) this year. There's also Facebook's line of smart video chatting devices, Portal.
Traditionally Listed Moats
Intangible assets consisting of the vast amount of data users have shared: sustained and growing, but people are also sharing things about themselves on other apps increasingly.
Growth of users means network effects still growing
Number and diversity of advertisers, and advertiser verticals still growing
Competition?
There is rising social media competition, and always the threat of new entrants. That being said, competition seems to carve out niches, so they aren't competing as directly as we'd think. The closest thing to Facebook the Blue app, for connecting with family and friends is Instagram. Competing apps can have similar features, but the main utilities are different. Tik Tok is mostly a short video app, Youtube is a long video app, Twitter is a breaking news app, Reddit is a communities app, etc. Facebook's utility first and foremost is connecting with REAL people who's identity you can verify, like friends and family. Like previously mentioned, the closest competitor is Instagram.
Messaging
There can be lack of differentiation here, but Messenger tied to Facebook, Instagram, Portal and Oculus. I suspect it'll be tied to future hardware as well. Whatsapp has network effects, and may one day have lock-in comparable to Chinese super apps (at least that's what's being worked towards). iMessage is the the main competitor here, because they are automatically installed on every iPhone
Misc
I think Facebook Marketplace, the Craigslist alternative benefits greatly from Facebook using real identities, and is an overall better product. If you want to sell something locally FB Marketplace is the best option, and I think it's a strong reason to have an account. Usage of Marketplace is growing.
The integration with Jio in India, and importance in Indian society is worth mentioning for Whatsapp.
Facebook Groups, have competition in the form of Reddit, and Discord. The edge here will be real identities, and the tools they are building to make moderating a Facebook group profitable (subscriptions, etc)
The only other pure "Real Identity social network" is Linkedin is a professional network.
Problems
No young people use Facebook? This seems to be a US centric cliche, as Facebook is popular among all age demographics around the world. According to Pew Research 76% of people 18-24 use Facebook, only superseded by Youtube. For teens in 2018, 51% of teens used Facebook which is good in my opinion for a social network not targeted to teens like Tik Tok. I personally think the utility of Facebook kicks in after college age, but regardless if there is a problem, I think the cure can be User Acquisition through hardware.
Chance of mass exodus? again, mitigated by the lock-in of hardware, but this is a concern of mine based on Facebook's reputation. 1. Privacy, there is truth to some criticism here, because Facebook's business model does depend on data collection, and in many ways is opposed to strict definitions of privacy, but much of it is also pushed by myth like "Facebook sells data". Facebook has the same business model as its advertising funded peers, but perception is what matters, and Facebook is losing the perception battle. 2. Politics, In my opinion has been half of Facebook's reputation problem. Recently Zuck said that they are trying to make Facebook less political by not recommending political groups, and lowering reach on political posts. Also, Donald Trump being gone should make the next 4 years less politically controversial. Since Facebook is in the business of advertising, and people can mostly say what they want, there's always the small chance of a #DeleteFacebook movement reaching critical mass based on these themes.
Being banned in countries? Mitigated by becoming a hardware player, but this is an unlikely outcome for many reasons that my hands are too tired to elaborate on.
Apple's privacy stance and iOS 14: The hit to revenue estimates I've seen are between 1%-7%, but it could also be a boost to revenue since third party signals being reduced will give the edge to whoever has the best first party signals, we'll have wait to see. This is something to watch closely, but transferring third party data into first party data by having ecommerce on the platform through initiatives like Facebooks shops, and Instagram shopping can be the cure. Also, being in control of hardware mitigates this risk
Antitrust- generally not concerned
Privacy as a theme that is adversarial to advertising - slightly concerned but I don't think ad funded business models are going anywhere, many people like not paying for things
Might add more to this later...

Shout out to u/Misanthropia for the original post — the hive needed more updated art!
This list is current as of episode 233 (2/1/21)
Desus goes by numerous aliases on the Bodega Boys Podcast. These aliases are based on references to pop culture, sports, and hip-hop. The long and ever-changing list of aliases or "AKAs" are one of the many running gags on the show. During an interview with Method Man on Desus and Mero, Desus explained that the idea for aliases was based on the alter-egos of the rappers in the song "Wu-Gambinos" on the album Only Built 4 Cuban Linx... by Wu-Tang Clan member Raekwon. (info via Wikipedia)
Desus & Mero no longer record from Milk Studios (moved indefinitely) and have been recording the podcast remotely from home due to the pandemic. Most of the AKA’s now mention social distancing, hot takes on covid and store closures.

Desus

Desus is extremely consistent with his aliases, almost always presenting them in the exact same order and without any exclusions:
Desus Nice — In a Hot 97 interview on April 13th 2017, Desus explains that people started calling him Desus as a play on his government name, "Daniel", and "Jesus", because he worked miracles with people's computers
Young Chipotle — Desus’ original alias, he explains in one podcast that it originates from when he was broke and buying Chipotle was a genuine treat
Pockets stay fat like Terio (Pockets stay fat like 'here we go') — A reference to viral star Terio, a young, obese African American boy whose videos of him dancing launched him to very brief viral fame. Recently, Desus added the more politically correct and kid friendly “here we go”
Eli Litby — A play on Eli Whitney, inventor of the cotton gin
Boutros Boutros Gully — A play on Boutros Boutros-Ghali, former Secretary-General of the UN, “Gully” being Jamaican Patois for an impoverished area
Slobodan Might-know-ya-bitch — A play on Slobodan Milosevic, former President of Serbia and important player in the Bosnian War
Young Day Party — I believe this was adopted in the summer of 2016 after Desus recounted the story of a day party in D.C., which seemed to invigorate his love for partying during the day
Young Hot Take — He has hot takes, pretty obvious here
Desus H. Fuego — Another moniker to describe his hot (“fuego”) takes on topics
Mr. Nandos with a rando — Nandos is a portuguese chicken restaurant chain which originated in South Africa and is big in the UK and Australia. Rando is slang for random person. Having Nandos with a rando is eating chicken with a random person (credit to u/deweez)
Mr. Mil Novecientos Noventa Y Cuatro en Nueva York — In later episodes Desus rarely adds the “en Nueva York” bit, but it translates to “Mr. 1994 in New York”. "The Knicks team in 1994 made the finals and is a legendary team amongst all Knicks fans who were around at the time. That team got to game 7 of the finals against the Rockets. NYC rallied around that team hard body because that team absolutely embodied NYC to a T with guys like Ewing, Charles Oakley, Mason, Starks, and Derek Harper." (credit to u/Okieant33)
Mikhail Goin-off — derived from former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev (credit to u/GhettoFob) converged with an allusion to losing ones temper in an act of random violence.
The Jouvert Boss — “Jouvert” is a carnival held in Caribbean/West Indian culture, involving a lot of partying
MC Likkle Gungo Pea — Gungo pea is a type of peas (also known as pigeon peas) often used in Jamaican dishes. Reference to his Jamaican heritage (credit to u/hopelessromcom)
"Pullin' up from 40 with your shorty" — Desus will “pull up”, or make a pass at, your girl even when the odds are slim or unlikely, much like a 40 foot shot in basketball
"Don’t talk to me in the Uber Pool, I don’t know you" — Uber introduced a service where you can share rides with other Uber users for a discounted rate. Desus has expressed his reluctance to engage with strangers when he is using it
The original “my plus one got a plus one so don’t make a fuss son” — When Desus shows up to an event with a girl, he brings two, and he's intimating that the host shouldn’t have a problem with that
Desus Rothstein, the Jamaican Jew — Originated around when Mero began his house search in Bergen County, NJ where a number of wealthy people of Jewish descent live. Desus envisions a version of himself who would fit in there
Jermaine Avocado Toast — Desus has gotten more cultured as a result of their success, and as such he has been able to indulge in things usually enjoyed by privileged white people, a stereotypical example of that being avocado toast. This is Desus’ gentrified, hipster persona
Young PA — Possible reference to the sound of small amount of air being expelled from a loose butthole, which is an impression Mero occasionally does (credit to u/jimsternub). This is also a reference to Brooklyn rapper Young MA.
The Ghost of Mufasa — A reference to Lion King, but beyond that I have no idea why he adopted it. Still hilarious though, and the nickname that most often makes Mero laugh
Young Charcuterie without the coonery — Charcuterie is considered very hip and trendy right now, and Desus is again saying he has a taste for the finer things, but is no longer interested in “coonery”, a derogatory term used to describe stereotypical African American behavior
Chile Limon, the left handed reliever for the Yankee’s (Que lo que?) — A fictional persona that seems to be a Latino version of Dock Ellis, who famously threw a no hitter while high on Acid. Chile Limon is also a popular seasoning/flavor with the Latino community
3 Phone Jones — Desus originally adopted "2 Phone Jones" after he reluctantly bought an iPhone to go with his Samsung Galaxy. He then received a Google Pixel, making it 3 Phone Jones (credit to u/ArtSorr0w)
Desus Ex Machina — A play on the common plot device “deus ex machina”, or “god from the machine” in which an unsolvable problem is suddenly resolved by some unexpected intervention. Desus also used to have a tumblr entitled "Desus Ex Machina" (credit to u/hardcore9)
Jay Chuckles — Revealed in episode 55 to be a reference to a now-defunct shoe store in NYC. Did Desus read this thread?
Stanley Cups — Desus' former rap alias, as revealed in episode 53.
The Human Dr. Bronner’s Label (Dilute! Dilute! Dilute!) — A reference to the concentrated soap Dr. Bronner’s Castile soap, which needs to be diluted. I didn’t quite understand how Desus applied this to himself, but it came from a joke in Episode 51 or 52 about Sean Spicer trying to defray controversy surrounding President Trump's decisions
Dionardo DiTrappio — A play on “Leonardo DiCaprio”, the actor, but referencing “trapping”, a slang for selling drugs.
Mr. 240p because I like my Pino blurry — Desus longs for the days of very low resolution pornography. 240p refers to the resolution, which is extremely low by modern standards
DJ Woolite AKA You're listening to Washed FM up next we got 24 hours of — The host of the fictional station “Washed FM”, a fictional radio station that is sometimes referenced along with “WSMK, Smack City Radio”. Woolite is a brand of fabric softener. Desus said multiple times on the podcast that now that he's single and living alone, he washes his clothes with extra fabric softener. As a kid, his clothes would get washed and be hard as nails. Again, he's got a taste for the finer things in life. (credit to u/Okieant33)
The Curried G.O.A.T. — A double reference to Desus’s Jamaican heritage, where Curried Goat is a popular culinary item, as well as referencing the phrase “G.O.A.T”, short for “greatest of all time”
Desus Spicer — A play on the former White House Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, who is often referenced on Desus & Mero as “spicing up” or “adding spice” to his takes
Jamal Hashburn — A play on Jamal Mashburn, a former NBA player, about Hash
The Bronx Celine Dion — Refers to the fact that Celine Dion is very popular in the Jamaican community, and so Desus is like Celine, but from the Bronx. (credit to u/chefboyardu) This is especially present with foreign and immigrant culture which means he is of mogul or iconic status for the Bronx (credit to u/courtofdacrimsonking)
Wray and Nephew's Nephew — A play on J. Wray and Nephew rum, which has its origins in Jamaica like Desus. Also, Desus drinks a lot, which you probably should have figured out by now. Introduced in episode 58
The Moreno you can't contain-o — A play on "moreno", a Spanish term for someone with dark skin
The Human Meme, Word to Ja — A play on Ja Rule's infamous mistake of believing that the word "meme" is pronounced "may-may"
Young Erewhon — A reference to a bourgeois health food store in LA, which makes this nickname in the vein of "Jermaine Avocado Toast", demonstrating Desus' taste for finer things now. (credit to u/a-1-since-day-1)
The Racist Provocateur — Desus flipped an angry tweet from April 28th 2017, in which someone called him a "racist provocateur" into a new alias
Henrik Bud-qvist — A play on NHL goalie Henrik Lundqvist, who currently plays for the New York Rangers
Nelson Bang-dela — An old alias resurrected in episode 65, a play on South African civil right's icon Nelson Mandela
Sergio Can't-see-me — A play on Sergio Tacchini, an Italian fashion designer and former Tennis player
Vladimir Boofin' — A play on Russian president Vladimir Putin, "boofin" being a reference to smuggling something by sticking it inside one's rectum
The Human Werther's, melting in your mouth — A reference to Werther's Originals, a brand of caramel hard candies favored by old people. Not really sure what this one means otherwise.
Mr. Becks on Deckington — The first time Desus introduced this one, he accidentally said "Mr. Becky's on Deckington" which was an incredible Freudian slip since Desus has been accused of not being into black women, and "Becky" is the stereotypical white woman name in pop culture. This is a reference to Desus always drinking Beck's, a cheap beer he favors along with Heineken. Adding "-ington" to words is New York slang, as Mero explains at some point.
Rikki-Tikki-Squad-bi — A play on Rikki-Tikki-Tavi, a character from the Jungle Book
Greg "Paaa"-povitch — A very meta play on San Antonio Spur's head coach Greg Popovich and the onomatopoeia of spreading butt cheeks apart (according to Mero)
Morris "Say it with your chest"-nut — A play on actor Morris Chestnut
Mahatma Gone-B — A play on famed pacifist Mahatma Gandi
Not Macka B but I got the cucumber — A reference to a viral video in which Reggae artist Macka B raps about healthy food in his "medical monday" series, Desus is unsurprisingly referencing his penis
The juices are pressed but your boy never is — Being "pressed" means someone is applying pressure to you, and no one would do that to Desus. The juices he is talking about are probably the morning drink he has with lemongrass and cayenne pepper that he makes reference to many times in recent episodes of the podcast.
I am the Art, dammit! — Not sure if this is a reference to anything specific or just a Kanye-esque line a crazed creative might yell out at some point
The Don Dada Ganoush — I believe this is a reference to the Meditteranean dish Baba Ganoush, "Don Dada" is Jamaican Patois slang (I believe) for “top pimp” or “big player” and a sort-of homophone for "baba"
No more Cup of Noodles — I don't know if this is a reference beyond the fact that Cup of Noodles is a struggle meal and Desus is no longer struggling
The Prince of Peckham — A reference to Peckham, a diverse neighborhood in London
The Fashion Nova Casanova — Fashion Nova is an online clothing retailer that specifically targets curvy women that Desus and Mero reference pejoratively (saying it's for bottle waitresses), Desus is saying here that he excels at seducing these kind of women ("Casanova" is a term of a man who excels at seducing women derived from the name of Italian Giacomo Casanova)
"William H. 5 Cent, 10 Cent, Dolla... Forget the small change, give me the the big money wine" — A reference to Soca Boys song "Dollar Wine (one cent, five cent, ten cent, dollar)" which apparently was super popular in the West Indies. "William H Holla is something Jay-Z used to call himself back in his hey day. It comes from the fact that Bill Gates' full name is William Henry Gates. Jay-Z used to give himself nicknames back in the day. J-Hova caught on but he used the term William H Holla because Jay-Z also coined the phrase "Holla At Me" and "Holla Back" and just shortened it to "Holla". So put the two together and you have William H Holla. He first said it on the song "Stick to the Script" off the Dynasty album. So Desus took it and made it his own." (credit to u/Okieant33)
The only anthem I salute is Dipset — A reference to the ongoing national anthem protests in the NFL, Desus is saying the only anthem he salutes is "Dipset Anthem" by Harlem rap legends The Diplomats
Mister Sauga, Catch me at Square One Top Left. Mans is marved. (Dont cheese me bro) — Finally a Canadian-centric reference, which makes sense given that the Bodega Boys have performed there multiple times. This is a reference to the Square One Shopping Center in Mississauga, Canada (where Desus alleges his mysterious wife and kids live), and "top left" is Greater Toronto Area slang for "truthful" or "seriously". "Mans is marved", means "I'm hungry" in Toronto slang (credit to u/Fortehlulz33)
Trill Rizzuto, holy cow! — A reference to former Yankees player Phil Rizzuto who would later go on to be a commentator, where his trademark expression was "holy cow!"
Mister Soft Palms because all I do is count checks and jerk off — I don't know if this is a reference to anything except Desus bragging about his lifestyle
"We got OJ, uh purple stuff, soda, and it's me! Sunny D!" — A reference to an old Sunny D commercial (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQE3jWYuGiw), and a play on the fact that people likely used to called Desus by the nickname "D", so "it's me! Sunny D" would be like saying "it's me, Desus!". Also kind of ironic since Desus is not a particularly sunny person (cue Dark Desus).
David Yerp-man — A play on David Yurman, an expensive jewelry company, and NYC slang exclamation "yerp"
Desus-expensive, Desus-Red Bottoms, Desus-bloody shoes — A play on a lyric from fellow Bronx native Cardi B taken from her song "Bodak Yellow"
Smo-a-kim Noah — A play on NBA player Joaquim Noah who played for the Knicks
Andrew Coooooool-nanan — A reference to serial killer (most notable for killing Gianni Versace) Andrew Cunanan
The Junior Energy God, come sit down 'pon me charger — Originally just the "Energy God" until Desus realized that that was fellow Jamaican Elephant Man's aliases. I thiiiink this is referring to the phrase "bring the same energy", the idea that if one is saying something behind someone's back, when confronted by the individual they should stick to their original statements. This alias started after the infamous Desus & Mero visit to the Breakfast Club, in which DJ Envy accosted the boys about a joke they made about his wife. Desus & Mero didn't punk out and therefore "brought the same energy". Someone tell me if I'm reaching here.
Call me PetCo cause I got your bitch-on-freeze — A play on words for the dog breed Bichon Frise
The Topic of Gossip in Syosset (Shout out to 11791 ah ah ah) — Syosset (zip code 11791) is a town in Long Island, NY. it's real bougie and suburban so Desus is saying basically he's got reach and is known not just in the hood but in the wealthy burbs too (credit to u/terminal-chillness)
Grandpa Joe, When you see Charlie you see me don't touch that golden ticket — A direct reference to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (Grandpa Joe) and Desus's cats name (Charlie)
Dead Eye Desus (Mornin’ Sherrif) — Dead Eye Desus refers to the 2018 video game Red Dead Redemption 2. The game features a gameplay mechanic called "Dead Eye" that allows the player to slow time to achieve easy head shots and kills. The game is also set in the late 1800's, early 1900's in the old West, which is why Desus typically references a Sheriff after saying Dead Eye Desus. (credit to u/biggak)
Mr. Shopping at StreetEasy with a bad breezy like I'm Yeezy, please believe me — Another one of Desus' tongue twisters, this one is in reference to shopping at StreetEasy, a NYC real estate website with an attractive woman like Kanye West might do
The Black Asiatic who will crack your back like an automatic craftmatic — Added in episode 54 after Desus' continuing gag about "big Black Asiatic men" (often referencing their penises). Here Desus is implying that sex with him (a Black Asiatic man) is very vigorous by saying he will change your posture like a Craftmatic mattress, which is a brand of mattress whose shape and orientation can be controlled electronically
Mr. La Marina in a mesh Merina with a fresh misdemeanor and a cold demeanor — This one is a doozy, but was adopted after Desus mentioned his frequent trips to La Marina (a bar on the water in Manhattan) in episodes released in the summer of 2016. A mesh Merina is a a mesh tank top (I think). The other two parts are self explanatory. Not sure how he always gets this one right without mixing up the words.
The Sheet-Mask Killer (No one could be iller) — ??
The Black Zack Morris of Port Morris — A take on Zack Morris for his problematic schemes on Saved by the Bell. (credit to u/justic3bon3r) Port Morris is a neighborhood in the Bronx (credit to u/m9rockstar) home of The Bronx Brewery and Bodega Boys Beer
Young KPI — Desus recites lyrics by Depeche Mode “Personal Jesus” (1989) More than likely this is a play off his main alias (Personal Desus)
The Pelé of Peleton — Pelé (Edson Arantes do Nascimento) was a former Brazilian soccer player and considered one of the greats. Desus is an avid Peleton user so much he deems himself the greatest of all time
Your problematic bae — Desus occasionally says problematic things, but you still love him, hence him being your “bae”. He always ends with this one, followed by an exaggerated kissing sound.
*After Desus's last aka he gives some sort of problematic advice sometimes followed by explosions*

Mero

Mero (u/THE_KID_MERO) is far less consistent with his aliases. Depending upon how smacked he is, he will often exclude or repeat some of his aliases. He also adds them far less frequently than Desus.
The Kid Mero — In a Hot 97 interview on April 13th 2017, Mero explained that this alias comes from the fact that his father and uncle wanted to name him "Ramiro", but his mother vetoed it and named him "Joel". His father and uncle continued to call him "Ramiro", which was shortened to "Miro" as a nickname. When Mero started tagging, he changed Miro to Mero because he found E to be a nicer letter to write (credit to u/atorMMM) as well as he just didn't like how the "i" looked. Also tagging the name "Ramiro" that long would get you arrested
The Human Durag Flap — Mero’s original nickname, and a reference to how hood he is and his uncircumcised status, something that gets referenced very often (credit u/ZeddyG2 and u/chandlersokay)
Curve Gotti — A play on “Irv Gotti”, former boss of Murder, Inc. records
Donovan Mcdabb — A play on former NFL player Donovan Mcnabb, in reference to dabbing, which could have two meanings (smoking THC oil or the dance move created by the Migos)
Trizz Khalifa — A play on “Wiz Khalifa”, but substituting the first part of the name with the slang “Trizz”. Usually said in a fake patois, imitating Popcaan's cry of "Fuck Wiz Khalifa!" at a Mixpak event
SKKRRRT Loder — A play on “Kurt Loder” former host on MTV News and editor at Rolling Stone
James St. Fatdick, I'll Ghost on you shorty — Originated right around the premiere of season 4 of Starz hit show "Power", here referencing the main character James St. Patrick, whose street alias is "Ghost"
Tiger Backwoods — A reference to pro golfer Tiger Woods and Mero’s love for smoking backwoods
“I no fucking baby, I fucking man!” — A reference to the viral video that sent friend of the brand Pioladitingancia to fame
“Check the guest list again because my name is definitely on it, and no I’m not stepping to the side while you check! ” — Not so much a nickname but something Mero might have said back in the day when he was broke and had to lie about being on guest lists to get into clubs
CC Dab-bathia — A play on Yankees Starting Pitchers name, CC Sabathia (and close friend of the brand)
Goldman Shm-achs — A variation of the phrase made popular by Bobby Shmurda and a reference to Goldman Sachs.
Mensch Montana — An alias borrowed from French Montana (who is from South Bronx) and popular artist with the Bodega Boys. They have mentioned his classic Mac and Cheese mixtapes numerous times on the podcast. Also this is a nod to his Jewish family connection; Mensch is Yiddish for "good guy." (credit to u/chefboyardu)
The Da-da-da Dad of the year — A play on a lyric from ScHoolboy Qs song "Man of The Year" (credit u/ZeddyG2). Mero already has three Mero Jr’s and the bodega princess, and as far as we can tell is an awesome dad, thus earning such a title. Confirmed to be a ScHoolboy Q reference in episode 56
Been-Smacked Biyombo — A play on “Bismack Biyombo”, a professional basketball player on the Charlotte Hornets
Di-Yayo Maradona — Reference to Argentinean soccer legend Diego Maradona and slang for coke (credit to u/terminal-chillness)
Dick-in-ya-bae Mutombo — A play on Dikembe Mutombo, former NBA player. Mero now respects the woman’s agency and asks for permission first before entering
Barlos Santana — A play on famed guitarist Carlos Santana and Xanax bars
The Dominican Don Dada — Jamaican Patois slang (I believe) for “top pimp” or “big player”, and as we know Mero is of Dominican descent, hence “Dominican Don Dada”. The phrase "Jamaican Don Dada" is used by the character Lennox in the movie "Belly", which is a classic in hip hop culture (credit to u/a-1-since-day-1) He follows this up with "catch me at Locksmith throwing up on myself". Locksmith is a bar on 192nd & Broadway in Inwood, which is a REALLY Dominican NYC neighborhood (credit to u/terminal-chillness)
Some variation of "swipe my card again, put the bag over it, there's definitely money on it!" — A reference to a familiar experience for anyone who has been broke, in which you lie and act like it's the store's fault when your card gets declined
Romeo Xantos — A reference to famed Bachata artist and Xanax, Bachata being a dance and music style originating in the Dominican Republic. Also the added "Sooo xanny, lemme black out" is a play on Romeo's adlib "sooo nasty, lemme find out" (credit to u/terminal-chillness)
Light-an-L Dutchie "Hello? Is it weed you're looking for?" — Another weed double entendre referencing Lionel Richie and his famous song "Hello"
Papa Sushi, The Dyckman Don — A reference to often-referenced MamaSushi, a fusion sushi restaurant on Dyckman Street in Manhattan
Tom Brazy, your girl got my balls deflated — A boastful play on the Deflategate controversy surrounding Tom Brady and the New England Patriots after the 2014-2015 AFL Championship game
Feel-da-ass Tyson (CONSENSUALLY WITH YOUR PERMISSION) — A play on “Neil DeGrasse Tyson”, a well known physicist
Lil’ Snoozie Vert— A play on the name Lil Uzi Vert. This is also in reference for when Mero actually ‘tapped out’ on Instagram Live
Fry-an-L Messi — A play on Lionel Messi, a famous Argentinian soccer player of Italian descent, and smoking an "L", slang for blunt
Joe Hookah "I dare you! To smoke with me! At MamaSushi!" — A reference to rapper Black Rob's song "I Dare You" that features Joe Hooker on the hook. MamaSushi is a high-end restaurant chain located in New York
Ben Barson my hands are gifted — During the 2016 election cycle, famed neurosurgeon Ben Carson engaged in a brief campaign for the Republican nomination. Mero took to doing impressions of him, exaggerating Carson’s urban upbringing by saying he was “Ben Barson”, in which the “C” was replaced with a “B”, as a Blood gang member would. Unlike Desus, who almost never fumbles his nicknames, Mero has maybe said this one correctly one time
Xaniel Bedingfield — A play on Daniel Bedingfield followed by Mero playing "I Gotta Get Through This" a popular song by the artist Daniel Bedingfield with lyrics that are about Xanax (credit to u/KTTeal)
Some variation of “I’ll open your medicine cabinet and take all of your Benzos” — This is self-referential in two ways: 1. The earlier reference here is to when Mero admitted to Desus that he will unashamedly go through people’s medicine cabinets in order to snoop on their lives and 2. After the boat party story in which Mero got drunk and took some Xanax’s, he added “I’ll take all of your benzos” bit to express how much he enjoys the feeling Benzodiazepines create
The Xandman — This is a play on the musical artist “Scatman John” who was most known for his song “Scatman’s World”, the chorus of which Mero imitates with this name and the accompanying vocalization
Rico Sabroso — Spanish for “Rich Tasty”, but I’m not sure what the reference here is beyond that
Baby Newport — I assume a reference to Newport brand cigarettes, stereotypically popular in urban areas
Niño Brown — A reference to the main character of the film “New Jack City”, in which Wesley Snipes plays a crack dealer named Nino Brown, but pronounced like the Spanish word for "kid", giving it some Latino flavor (credit to u/Okieant33)
The East Tremont Stevie B — East Tremont is a predominately Hispanic area of the Bronx, while Stevie B was a recording artist from the 80’s with some incredible Jheri Curls. Sometimes sings "I want to be the one your Titi is fucking" after
I met Mike Francesca im never gon’ fail — A direct reference from when the Bodega Boys actually met Mike on the last episode on Desus & Mero on Viceland. In translation, this means after finally meeting with the iconic Sports Pope this makes him unstoppable. This is also a reference to Kanye West's song 'Ultralight Beam' where Chance the Rapper says "I met Kanye West, I'm never gonna fail" (credit to u/RemyDWD)
The Plantain Supernova in the Sky — A reference to the Oasis hit “Champagne Supernova”, but changed to reflect Mero’s Dominican heritage, which often uses plantains in its cuisine. Occasionally he will sing an extended version, which goes “One day you will find me, smoking weed on Tremont/in the Plantain Supernova in the sky”. How does he hit these melodies so perfectly every time?
Tom Petty and the Ball Breakers — A play on the rock band name ‘Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers’. Mero sings the chorus from Tom Petty’s solo project “Free Fallin’” as “Free Ballin’” suggesting that he feels free doing his Zoom calls without pants
Barmelo Xanthony — An incredible play on the Bodega Boy’s favorite NBA player, Carmelo Xanthony, and Mero’s beloved Xanax’s. (credit to u/terminal-chillness) Most recently, Mero has changed his references to him making sound financial decisions and balancing his portfolio since the interview with Carmelo himself on Desus & Mero on Showtime
Some variation of “If you see me in Target approach me like a bear” — Originates from Mero’s love of getting really high and hanging out in Target. Being high sometimes makes him paranoid, so he doesn’t like people just running up on him. Desus suggested people “approach him diagonally, like you would a bear”. Mero interchanges “bear”, “Ursine Mammal”, and “Oso” (Spanish for “bear”) at random
Benzo the Clown — A problematic clown for kids that ruins birthday parties and not refunding your $50 deposit. Originated on Episode 96, Desus starts talking about rolling up to Mero Jr’s bar mitzvah smacked. (credit to u/outtaspite) Benzo’s antics are normally cut short by Mr. Fun Fun (voiced by Desus) normally ending with the problematic light
I sold fake Lean to your favorite SoundCloud rapper — Not sure this is a specific reference other than the fact that Lean is pretty much a guaranteed accessory for any SoundCloud rapper and Actavis discontinued their codeine/promethazine cough syrup in 2014 due to abuse, so a lot of people are drinking fake Lean.
"Llego el hijo de Tito y Fifa papi"/"The son of Tito and Fifa has arrived, papi — In later episodes, Mero began to include some Spanish phrases at the end of his list of aliases, usually beginning with this phrase and building off of it. When Mero does this he also says "Hassan tira me lo pita" which is slang for "Hassan drop me a beat". Mero is making pretend that he's a DJ on NY's Spanish Radio Station 97.9 La Mega. Mero from here goes on to talk all kinds of shit about how hard and gangster he is. (credit to u/bobbuddha and u/Okieant33)
Please correct me if you have ideas or see mistakes!
​
Discontinued aliases:
Desus

• Young Green Room
• Desus Vice
• Vice-K Matsuzaka
• Kristap Por-sling-dick
• The Human Jerry Curl

Mero

• Blem de la blem
• Young Pap Smear
• Metro Bloomin' Onion (credit to u/raybegleiter)
• Fry-an-L Messi (Mero at one point said this instead of "Light-an-L Messi", he'll probably go back and forth)
• Papi Shampoo
• Lucious Lyon-ass nigga
• David Trizz-Dale

Part 85 here
Alright. Alright. Alright. Let's keep digging further into the rabbit hole of a weaponized simulation being used to manipulate societal behavior by the Technocrat Surveillance State.
First of all. PClick on the link. Take a look. This is what they call us. ZOMBIES Source Here

According to internal NSA documents seen by SPIEGEL, the NSA has focused on accessing smartphone data. In a secret presentation, the agency ironically uses an image from the iconic Apple Macintosh ad aired during 1984 Superbowl, which referenced the George Orwell book "1984." The presentation went on to show Steve Jobs as "Big Brother." The NSA documents indicate that the agency can access a wide variety of iPhone geolocation features and other data.The implication of the presentation is that iPhone users are somehow complicit in their own surveillance by buying iPhones in the first place.

And do you know what you can do with zombies? Click and drop them wherever you want and lead them to where you need them to be. Because zombies really aren't dangerous, despite all the entertainment showing otherwise. They're only dangerous of you don't control the environment around you. If you fall asleep at the wheel. Which is why they're running simulations with Sentient World Simulation and manipulating our behaviour. So how deep does the data gathering go? Really deep.

We're All In This Together

NSA whistleblower Drake says the problem is that both CSEC and the NSA lack proper oversight, and without it, they have morphed into runaway surveillance. "There is a clear and compelling danger to democracy in Canada by virtue of how far these secret surveillance operations have gone." Much of the document contains hyper-sensitive operational details which CBC News has chosen not to make public.Wesley Wark, a Canadian security and intelligence expert at the University of Ottawa, says the document makes it clear Canada can take advantage of its relatively benign image internationally to covertly amass a vast amount of information abroad. Source Here

So we're all part of the same team. The Five Eyes.
So think about it. USA. Canada. Britain. Australia. New Zealand. Our Governments collect all our data and then pump it into a simulation like SEAS, before letting an algorithm do it's thing and shape our incoming data to mold our behaviors. Proof? Sort of. Those massive data centers in Utah aren't there as decoration. We have proof of behavioural manipulating studies done by Facebook. And we also have proof of an extremely advanced simulation. This isn't a leap to say that they use this apparatus against us. Is it?

The NSA and GCHQ have traded recipes for various purposes such as grabbing location data and journey plans that are made when a target uses Google Maps, and vacuuming up address books, buddy lists, phone logs and geographic data embedded in photos posted on the mobile versions of numerous social networks such as Facebook, Flickr, LinkedIn, Twitter and other services. In a separate 20-page report dated 2012, GCHQ cited the popular smartphone game "Angry Birds" as an example of how an application could be used to extract user data. Taken together, such forms of data collection would allow the agencies to collect vital information about a user's life, including his or her home country, current location (through geolocation), age, gender, ZIP code, marital status, income, ethnicity, sexual orientation, education level, number of children, etc. A GCHQ document dated August 2012 provided details of the Squeaky Dolphin surveillance program, which enables GCHQ to conduct broad, real-time monitoring of various social media features and social media traffic such as YouTube video views, the Like button on Facebook, and Blogspot/Blogger visits without the knowledge or consent of the companies providing those social media features. The agency's "Squeaky Dolphin" program can collect, analyze and utilize YouTube, Facebook and Blogger data in specific situations in real time for analysis purposes. The program also collects the addresses from the billions of videos watched daily as well as some user information for analysis purposes.

Whelp. They sure are like an octopus with their tentacles in everything, aren't they? And I do mean everything, isn’t that right Bill get the jab Gates?
Why on earth would they need this data unless they were using it? They wouldn't. Now the problem becomes, how are they using it? Remember, they want to launch the Internet of Things so they can watch everything. Do you know who else watched everything? Jeffery Epstein.

Giuffre adds that Epstein had hidden cameras everywhere in his homes—massage rooms, bedrooms, showers, toilets. “Every single corner of that house was monitored,” she says. “He was watching everyone all the time. This was a blackmail scheme.… When he told me, ‘People owe me favors’ and ‘I will never get caught’ and ‘I can get away with things,’ he meant it.”

Ransome claims that she was raped by Epstein her first night on the island, and continued to be abused by him throughout the trip. With no way to leave, Ransome said that she even “tried to escape”—making her way to a remote part of the island. But Epstein found her “almost immediately.” Ransome said, “I knew then that I was being watched 24/7.” Source Here

That doesn't look good for living in a omnipresent surveillance state does it. And hey, didn't Jeffery hang out with Bill Gates quite a bit?

Microsoft handed the NSA access to encrypted messages • Secret files show scale of Silicon Valley co-operation on Prism • Outlook.com encryption unlocked even before official launch • • Skype worked to enable Prism collection of video calls • Company says it is legally compelled to comply • Material collected through Prism is routinely shared with the FBI and CIA, with one NSA document describing the program as a "team sport". Source Here

Yep. Birds a feather, as they say.
So the material is collected through Prism? So now when they say Prism, I'm pretty sure they mean to indicate a light source on one side and a rainbow coming out the other side, right? Makes sense, doesn't it? And a rainbow is a collection of colors. Hmmmm. I feel like I have a revolutionary thought coming on.
Color revolutions! You know, like the kind that swept the middle east. Isn't that funny? Not really, but you know what I mean. Because these guys love just making it obvious, don't they? Why? Because we're all a bunch of zombies, that's why!
And a funny thing happens when you start to dive into some of the revolutionary protests. You start to see a link between where China increases trade with a country, and right around the same time the protests spontaneously start up!
What a coincidence!
The Egyptian revolution of 2011, also known as the 25 January Revolution (Arabic: ثورة 25 يناير‎; Thawrat khamsa wa-ʿišrūn yanāyir),[21] started on 25 January 2011 and spread across Egypt.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_revolution_of_2011
Recognizing that the current trade volume heavily favors China, both sides committed to work to improve Egypt’s share of the balance of trade. The volume of Sino-Egyptian trade reached $8.8 billion in 2011, a 26% increase from 2010. Source Here
I'm only going to give one example, but there are more. These are color revolutions all right, but they're the color of money. Remember, the Sentient World Simulation can simulate over 60 countries at once, and that's what they're willing to tell us. How much do you want to bet the real capacity is beyond top secret?
And what happened in Russia and China im 2011?

The 2011 Chinese pro-democracy protests (simplified Chinese: 中国茉莉花革命; traditional Chinese: 中國茉莉花革命) or (simplified Chinese: 伟大的中华茉莉花革命; traditional Chinese: 偉大的中華茉莉花革命) refers to a series of minor public assemblies at some cities in China starting on 20 February 2011, inspired by and named after the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and the wider Arab Spring.

The 2011–2013 Russian protests (which some English language media referred to as the Snow Revolution)[14] began in 2011 (as protests against the 2011 Russian legislative election results) and continued into 2012 and 2013. The protests were motivated by claims by Russian and foreign journalists, political activists and members of the public that the election process was flawed.[15] The Central Election Commission of Russia stated that only 11.5% of official reports of fraud could be confirmed as true.

Revolutions sure became popular all over the planet (and by planet I mean Africa, the Middle East, and Asia) all at once. Yep. They caught the Democracy Virus! They want FREEDOM! They want to be able to leave their countries...uhm, don't we get a lot of Chinese tourists over in North America? Strange. But isn't it a dictatorship that...you know what, never mind. FREEDOM!
Now if I'm right and they're using the internet to manipulate all of us based off of running simulations, it might just put a different spin as to why Russia and China have tried to block the internet into their countries. Just a thought. They wouldn't want their populations being manipulated, would they? Nope.

Beijing has not completely blacked out reporting on the uprising in Egypt. Instead, the Chinese government is funneling coverage of the protests through state-run television and the official Xinhua News Agency. However, the coverage that reaches Chinese citizens focuses primarily on the "lawlessness and anarchy" in Egypt's streets."What they are putting in the foreground is the chaos and the upheaval," Joerg Rudolph, a political scientist at the East Asian Institute of the University of Applied Sciences in Ludwigshafen, told Deutsche Welle. "This way they are showing that it's bad when these kinds of protests happen. We have to preserve stability. It's always the same. Stability has to be preserved and that's always the stability of the ruling elite in the country." Source Here

Oh. China has to preserve the stability of the ruling elite? Gotcha. Sure is a good thing that doesn't happen in North America! Could you imagine having controversial elections, rioting or protests, and then armed soldiers on the street! Thank goodness we have fact checks to save us from fake news!
Here's another strange thing about revolutions. They're all in the eye of the beholder. One man's Revolution is another man's Terrorism. Take Xinjiang and the Uighurs. I'm not saying they don't have re-education camps. They do. China admits it. I will say that I don't know how bad the situation is. But I will also say, middle eastern drones sure do have a lot of collateral damage, don't they? And North America is suddenly starting to get very concerned about domestic terrorism, aren't they? Wait. Isn’t that what China claims to be concerned about in Xinjiang as well? Hmmm. They must be worried about corporations like Apple and Nike being targeted.
Ok. Back on point. Simulations. The internet. Data. Shaping our perception. Molding our behaviors based on a computer program. They input data and then they output information for us to consume. Revolutions? Racial tensions? Apathy. The alarming mimicry online? Yeah. Simulations at work. And guess what? It's going to get worse. Because the more we become connected through the internet of things, the more data they receive, and the more data they receive, the better the simulations become, and the better the simulations become, the more they can exert their influence through programming us with content. It really is becoming very clear why they want 5G rolled out so quickly and why they have such a problem with Huawei, isn't it?
But at least our Surveillance Simulation State is only here for the benefit of Western Society. Right?

Snowden provided journalists at The Intercept with GCHQ documents regarding another secret program "Karma Police", calling itself "the world's biggest" data mining operation, formed to create profiles on every visible Internet user's browsing habits. By 2009 it had stored over 1.1 trillion web browsing sessions, and by 2012 was recording 50 billion sessions per day. The goal of the program, according to the documents, was "either (a) a web browsing profile for every visible user on the internet, or (b) a user profile for every visible website on the internet." *Karma Police was apparently named after the Radiohead song "Karma Police", which includes the lyric "This is what you’ll get when you mess with us". *

So just think. First the EMPLOYEES call us ZOMBIES, and then they use a song title that has the lyrics, THIS IS WHAT YOU'LL GET WHEN YOU MESS WITH US. Charming. And then Bill Gates hands the data to the state. And Bill's old pal Epstien loved to use surveillance to find runaway victims to rape. And these are the guys who are funding scientists and research? Scary thought. And what's scarier? How about all the headlines about what the models are showing in regards to the pandemic. Because a model is simply another word for a simulation. And we have evidence for a massive simulation being run. And we have evidence for the Club of Rome simulation being the basis for our current climate crisis decision policies. And we don't need a simulation to start questioning the motives of people who are funding these operations.
Whistleblowers have warned us. We've listened. Now we have to start making other people listen. Because no matter what, the simulations aren't perfect and they can't account for every possible outcome. And that's what each and everyone us are, another possible outcome.
Go viral. Be an outcome.
More soon. Keep your head up and eyes open. Talk soon.

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.