$ACAC Merging w/ Playstudios - Undervalued MGM-Backed Online Gaming/Gambling/Return to Normal Play?
Wondering what everyone's thoughts are regarding Playstudios merging with ACAC. Seems to have oddly dropped below even where it was when it was in the rumour stages. Here are some of the investment notes I've gleaned from my research. Please help provide more bear (or bull) cases if possible! Summary ⦁ Online gaming company with major backing and investments from MGM Group, Blackrock, Activision Blizzard, and Neuberger Berman ⦁ Playstudios' game profiles include: myVEGAS Slots, POP! Slots, myKONAMI Slots, myVEGAS Blackjack, and Kingdom Boss + myVEGAS Bingo coming soon ⦁ >100M lifetime app downloads ⦁ 4.2M monthly active users From PlayStudios investor deck ⦁ 56 minutes playtime/day (more than TikTok, YouTube, etc. as per Skillz' research), fairly comparable to Skillz as well (their data below) Skillz data on minutes per user per day - Playstudios is 56 minutes/day ⦁ Unique loyalty rewards program that engages sticky user base by providing free rooms, meals, drinks, at many Las Vegas resorts such as Bellagio, Aria, MGM, Luxor, Mandalay Bay, etc., as well as exclusive gambling room access in select casinos ⦁ Valued at $1B enterprise value at NAV ⦁ Using capital injection to develop new apps, M&A with other gaming companies Bull Cases ⦁ SPAC Management group is quite stacked and very heavy on online gaming, and gambling sectors ⦁ Co-CEO Edward King has experience at Morgan Stanley as Managing Director and Global Head of Gaming Investment Banking ⦁ Co-CEO Dan Fetters also has experience at Morgan Stanley as Managing Director of M&A ⦁ EVP of Acquisitions Chris Grove is a partner at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming ⦁ Chairman Jim Murren former CFO, Chairman, and CEO of MGM for over 20 years (12 years as Chairman, CEO) and led the recovery of MGM post-financial crisis. Currently also Chairman of COVID 19 Response in Neveda ⦁ Other Board members include the President and CEO of the Boston Red Sox and Chief Exec. of Fenway Sports Management, Senior VP of Monumental Sports and Entertainment, former CEO of ShooWin, and FoundeCEO of Sydell Group (lifestyle hotel chain) ⦁ Playstudios exec. team also all have long history of gaming, and gambling sectors ⦁ TAM of mobile gaming only set to continue to grow YOY ⦁ Loyalty program appears to be very sticky for Vegas visitors, as well as offering a clear value add for even non-gamers to participate (free drinks, hotel stays, etc.), and causing a virtous cycle from user app engagement -> real-life reward redemption -> resort app offers -> and back Virtuous Cycle - from PlayStudios investor deck ⦁ Undervalued in terms of PS ratios comp. to other mobile gaming companies (Zynga, Playtika, etc.), and EBITDA basis ⦁ History of strong app development and revenue growth without major capital injection ⦁ History of profitable business model, stronger revenues than a Skillz ($270M for Playstudios v. $255M for Skillz) Revenue Growth and DAU Chart - from PlayStudios investor deck ⦁ All apps have strong user experience and reviews are exceptional ⦁ Very large amount of shares set to exit lock-up 12 months after de-SPAC ⦁ During the lockdowns, the global market for social casino games grew 24%, indicating a strong hedge play against another locked down economy ⦁ Massive list of partners Partners List - from PlayStudios investor deck ⦁ Very valuable subset of audience From PlayStudios investor deck Bear Cases ⦁ Perhaps one of many entrants into an industry of very high competition ⦁ EBITDA near-term is not super strong ⦁ Some SPAC cash usage not ideal ($150M going into founder's pockets) ⦁ Not in a very hype sector like EV, Space, etc. TLDR: I think Playstudios is under-the-radar, competitively differentiated, and undervalued comp. to other mobile gaming companies right now at ~$11.20/share, and see near-term upside as a long-hold given the major partners and big names behind it (MGM primarily, Activision Blizzard secondarily). Disclosure: 5000 shares of ACAC Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor... do your own due diligence.
26 Capital Corp (ADERU) is a new at-NAV SPAC with world-leading online gambling expertise - worth a bet
EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake tl;dr At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train
+++++++ Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood. (My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.) As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research +++++++
26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors". I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry
CEO Jason Ader has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm) Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015. Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any) Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??). Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic
Rafi Ashkenazi One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting
Joseph Kaminkow Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions
Greg Lyss This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky. The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)
Thesis / potential targets Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.
1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype. This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.
2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop
3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.
“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.” “I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source
4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely
5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential
Potential upside This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels. There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV
Potential Downside
Ader has been vocal that he thinks US online betting is overvalued and in a bubble - why is he starting his own SPAC in the space then? Does he just want to cash in while the hype is at all-time high or does he have a legitimate business goal?
If he just wants to dump a part of Playtech which he does not like onto retail investors, this is a bad deal.
Other targets could be e.g. hotel industry or other leisure sector which would be zero sexiness to retail. Given Ashkenazi and Kaminkow's background this seems unlikely though
Usual SPAC caveats apply about potential difficulty finding a target, locking up your money for unspecified period of time, and the fact I may have completely misread the potential and my above thesis might be totally wrong
TLDR;$8 calls for June 19 Edit: If it goes below $7.30 I will most likely exit. Position My play: dumping before earnings or legging them out to further OTM calls if there is a strong run up. Save a few to exercise and wheel them until I'm exercised. Estimated earnings date: 05/06/2020. $ATVI and $GLUU also have earnings that week. I'd love some feedback. So let me know why and how I'm a retard. I already got in with 50 calls. I got burned by the witching hype. So just letting you know how smooth my brain is. Thesis: Entertainment spending has not been significantly affected yet by Coronavirus(see $NFLX subscription count) and people are entertaining themselves on their phones(see $SNAP +20% DAU). These easy conclusions could lead to a runup for Zynga to earnings. Also, smooth brains spending stimulus money. $500 per kid and $1200 per adult. Back of napkin math: If Zynga sees a 20% increase in DAU that translates to ~107m(4M additional DAU at $0.223 per day) additional revenue on the high side. Zynga's Q1 is typically a slower quarter, so $375m revenue was probably their projection when they gave the 1.6bn guidance. 33% of that $107m puts them at $410m on the quarter. This is inline with analyst estimates but it doesn't include the progress that they've made in Asia or the impact of content updates to older proven games. DD
Expanded their newly acquired Empires & Puzzles game to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. A similar game, Puzzles & Dragons is very popular there. So there is a strong apetite for this game.
Coronavirus should help increase player base
Words With Friends seeing 25% increase in Google Trends over season peak of December.
WWF had a 2% YoY loss in users from 18 to 19
1.6bn forcasted for 2020 at the end of Q4, but analysts are estimating 1.69 to 1.81bn. 3 years in a row exceeding initial estimate.
Snapchat just saw a 20% increase in DAU(daily active users). More smooth brains on their phones.
Netflix blew out subscriptions estimates, so entertainment spending is still strong. NetFlix sub is $8.99, monthly spend on Zynga is $6.69 on a DAU.
CSR Racing received new customization content
Empires & Puzzles starting Season 3 whatever the fuck that is, I assume it'll bring back old players
Over 1bn cash on hand
Merge Dragons is #7 grossing game on Android App store, above Call of Duty Mobile. Unsure if this is lifetime gross or some time period.
Potential Suprises good and bad
Class action lawsuit on March 3rd for losing PII to some hacker
Zynga may announce positive developments in expansion of Empires and Puzzles to China, 1st or 2nd largest gaming market
Coronavirus bump may not be projected by analysts, we could see revisions leading to a run up to earnings
Coronavirus bump may have accelerated timetable for growth estimates in Asia and Zynga may crush their guidance
Zynga Poker and CSR Racing are 2 loss leaders for MAU/DAU but are trending up on Google Trends
$ATVI, $GLUU, $ZNGA earnings all around the same time, could create a lot of attention for smartphone game industry
Empire & Puzzles Android App Review Highlights "Everything in this game is about money."(1* ) "Without significant spending it is not possible to compete with spenders. I've been playing six months nearly every day" (2* LOL) "you can also spend alot of $$$ and still not get $hit like me." (2* LOL) "Playing for 2 years and have 1 hero of the month and no 5* of any event heroes. That is not a good way to keep people playing. I have done probably 50 10 pulls and that's all I have to show for it. That's 1 out of 500, that's less than .25 percent which is ridiculous. Cant compete if I cant get any heroes other than basic heroes which leads to quitting because it's no longer fun. Just did 65 pulls and got basically nothing F U small giant!" [Link] pulls = slot machine casino brain psycological microtransaction hooks pull = 300 gems, 10000 gems is $160 This guy is admitting on a review that he spent $312, on Microtransactions. You know that shit is a lot higher. Edit: GLU -> GLUU Edit: of the 0.223, 19% is advertising so $5.40 a month from microtransactions per user per month Edit: Bank of America just downgraded Zynga. Fuck them. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/snap-stock-heads-for-best-day-in-two-years-but-jaw-dropping-slowdown-is-warning-sign-for-facebook-and-google-2020-04-22 Edit: First sign of good news? Shaking off the BofA downgrade. Shit math says they might get ~60m additional revenue in March. Putting them at 430-440m for the quarter. Analyst estimates 405ish. So a 7% beat. Edit: I averaged down to .46 per contract and got up to 100 contracts. I just sold off half for .56 each. If you bought the day after this DD post at .41 then you made a nice 35%+ gain.
How did your #nospend go? It was great for Zynga...
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/zynga-posts-highest-revenue-company-history-1306071 Zynga on Wednesday posted the highest revenue in the game developer's history for its second quarter, hitting $452 million, a 47 percent bump year-over-year. Growth was largely driven by stronger than anticipated performance results from the match-3 puzzle and RPG crossover game Empires & Puzzles — which has a widespread user base in Eastern and Western Europe, Asia, and North America — as well as the puzzle adventure game Merge Dragons! and the slots game Game of Thrones Slots Casino.
Are these autistic reasons to think Zynga will exceed earnings tomorrow?
-Think about all the old people who were locked up in March not being able to go to the casino. I’m guessing many of them turned to those online free slots. -Weekly home poker games being replaced by zynga poker and zoom. -Coworkers playing games in office happy hours to stay connected. -People in general just being locked up and bored. I know earnings likely just got a pump for the month of March for these reasons but I still think it’s enough to really put them over the top. They also just partnered with Amazon recently on something which I think will help their share price.
Does anybody know if zynga poker boards are established at the start of a round?
Are the flop, turn, and river cards randomly generated right before they come out, or are they generated at the beginning of a round? For example, if I fold a hand with what turns out to be the nuts, if I'd called, would the cards have been different? It's obviously a question of superstition, but I'm curious. In real poker, you can legitimately say that you WOULD have won a hand you folded if it turns out you had the nuts, but with Zynga, I'm wondering if the act of folding or the timing affects what cards actually come out. I've been told that most slot games at casinos are randomized by factoring in the time of day down to the millisecond into the algorithm.
Are these valid reasons to think ZNGA will exceed earnings expectations tomorrow?
-Think about all the elderly people who were locked up in March not being able to go to the casino. I’m guessing many of them turned to those online free slots. -Weekly home poker games being replaced by zynga poker and zoom. -Coworkers playing games in office happy hours to stay connected. -People in general just being locked up and bored playing words with friends and whatnot. I know earnings likely just got a pump for the month of March for these reasons but I still think it’s enough to really put them over the top. They also just partnered with Amazon recently on something which I think will help their share price. Thoughts?
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Casino DLC: A musing on what it might be, and what I'd like.
So I know multiple people have posted similar, but, allow a man to dream. Whilst we know it's gonna come with another almighty drip feed...cars, perhaps gradually released missions, hell...there's talk of a heist maybe being added...aside from any of this I really want the experience in the casino to be engaging and worthy of GTA. What I don't want is for them to half ass it, turn it into another boring instalment of the same old overused mechanism: buy property / expensively (and possibly pointlessly) upgrade said property / source & deliver. It wouldn't be so bad if they facilitated a little extra individualism by way of more than 1 interior layout (looking at you nightclubs). Having said that, how are they actually going to make this dlc? I will say that thinking a little about it, I wouldn't mind and could get excited about the idea of owning a casino and therefore managing another revenue stream. I'm not going to flesh out what I'd like that to include mind you, because, I'd much prefer the casino to simply be an environment for us to visit and spend time in. Obviously though, where $ are involved R* will be looking for their own 'monei drop plz', being the shark card peddling deviants they are. And so, albeit without choice of location (a la Arena War), selling each of us the casino as a business opportunity makes sense. I very much doubt they will give us a fairly richly designed, engaging environment, just to try and make money from drip feed vehicles.
So despite my quite fancying casino ownership, this makes me sad...because what we are missing is places where as a user-base we can come together and be relatively civil and hang out. I'm quite happy for uncivil people to vent sheer anger down their headset as they bet it all on black, only for red to come in. But let's have somewhere to engage with each other or just the environment, in a less confrontational 'destroy everything' manner. The savagery that occurs down at Vanilla Unicorn sometimes...sheds tear. With this said, what doesn't seem viable though, is for us to walk up to the casino doors to then get 32 options of which one to enter! It seems that to encourage interaction there should be plenty of NPC's and up to 32 players entering the same, the only casino. So in my ideal world...what I would like from a non purchaseable casino dlc is:
1 - Poker: I haven't played RDR, so I don't know how that version plays...but am aware indeed that RDR was probably R*'s testing ground and that what is there...is probably what will get reskinned to GTA. For years I have pined for a poker minigame, not just an afterthought, but a well created one that immerses its players for as long as they wish. If Zynga can keep people logged into Facebook for full aeons of time, then, as with all good budding business ideas, why can't R* exclaim "why not" or "what if"...and end up with a decently functioning poker game that hooks its own player base? However, I can see it now: no differing stakes, max buy-in $20,000...just like the Premium Races; or $1000 like the normal betting on races! Ok, $1000 is stupidly low, so surely not. But they'll definitely want to prevent illegitimately gained money being dumped off to poor friends. They'll want to ensure people can't get wildly rich without having been driven to Sharkcard'ism. Good poker players can forget about making their GTA riches at the cloth. What would be a great feature, one that would bring new life to past content, would be allowing home games in your apartments. Pop up poker table, invite people over, and play away. Personalised tables, chip sets, a hot hostess bringing your drinks orders to the table. ...Perhaps I'm now taking it too far! To wrap up, a nice range of options for poker at the casino would be very welcome. I know tournaments are out of the question, even STT's. But a nice cash game poker room, with a choice of stakes, would be wonderful.
2 - House games / Slots: A nice large gaming floor, mezzanine levels, private high roller areas, a mix of the usual games...would all be appreciated. Let's make this building we've all been waiting for -> wishing for -> dreaming of -> given up hope of ... a magnificent building that we want to spend time in and explore.
3 - Entertainment: Remember the Perestroika from GTA 4? It would be great to have a stage with a few acts on, giving us another activity to experience. Now, obviously this is farrrrrr to much to expect...the all round design and labour on this is out of the question. But whilst we're dreaming...
4 - Music: The music in the GTA:San Andreas casinos was fantastic. It really provided a great fun feel when entering. Hopefully the music is similarly good, yet with a bigger playlist.
5 - Immersion: Onto smaller (and some dreamland) features now! I want the casino to be a place of no tryhards, no violence, no weapons. To be like the stripclub is not enough. No killing the doorman then letting guns blaze. No being like GTA:SA where you could survive whilst security and police come to gun you down. It should be like the security functions in the facility, guns disabled. Dreamland: An on-site restaurant. An apartment for overnight stays / comps. NPC's that get pissed off with our plays at the table that then follow us when we leave to teach us a lesson. Remember the taxi driver options of previous games, well how about a 'Be a dealer' minigame. A valet minigame as well.
6 - Dripfeed Content: Well, those better versed in culture than me could suggest vehicles of a casino related nature. I imagine that some of the cars associated with films that feature casinos should be an option; James Bond movies amongst many others. Besides the thematically related options I'll certainly look forward to an injection of new vehicles. My garages won't, but I think we're well beyond the days of wishing for increased garage space!! There's plenty of vehicles that different demographics of the user base would like. Personally, give me some more luxury sedans, some more JDM...starting with a Mitsubishi GTO/3000, along with an old style Honda NSX/Acura. Let's see some more clothing additions and perhaps a few new quick actions as well.
All in all I'm really looking forward to this DLC. I actually managed to curb my GTA addiction in recent months. Going from hours a day to minutes a month. Done right this DLC could have me chasing the dragon all over again - figuratively speaking, of course.
Beyond a Casino DLC....I still crave a pimping empire. Bring back looking after hoes. Let us go cruising for those ladies of the night, 'persuading' them to work for us...choosing their look...and putting them to work. My god, the possibilities..... Anyway......, I know I've verbal diarrhoea'd this post; but if you want similar stuff, or fancy things I've missed...then share away and let's start a convo, let's build up our anticipation for the release.
And if you got this far...then well...quick action double tap:Salute
Last week, I quickly jotted down the the duration of the app trailers to get an idea of how long they lasted. I thought I might share this info with y'all so here we go! Device: iPhone 5 (Note: this info also applied to my 4S so I'm sure other iPhone models have identical info as well.)
Number
App Name
Duration(in seconds)
1
Retailmenot
0:23
2
Perk Tokens Explained
0:54
3
Farmville 2
0:53
4
Zoosk
0:38
5
Poker by Zynga
0:24
6
Immortalis
0:53
7
Empire: 4 Kingdoms
0:38
8
Perk TV
0:29
9
Match.com
0:23
10
Fairway Solitaire Blast
0:58
11
What People Are Saying...
0:30
12
Slotomania HD
0:33
13
Perk Sends Rewards...
0:36
14
Fairway Solitaire
0:58
15
Skout
0:38
16
CSR Racing
0:22
17
Bingo Blitz
1:25
18
Cookie Jam
0:23
19
Evolution: Battle...
1:45
20
Perk Browser
0:52
21
Hotspot Shield VPN
0:35
22
Bubble Mania
0:32
23
Candy Blast Mania
0:25
24
Kingdoms of Camelot
1:05
25
Heroes of Dragon Age
1:07
26
Jewel Mania
0:25
27
Hidden Objects: ...
0:37
28
Game of War: Fire Age
1:16
29
Lifelock Wallet
1:09
30
Dragon City
1:47
31
Galaxy Legend
0:26
32
Hit It Rich!
0:23
33
Slot Bonanza HD
0:23
34
Castle Clash
0:23
35
Slots Journey 2
0:38
36
Slots Titan's Way
0:27
37
Expedia
1:19
38
Hotels.com
0:39
39
Mymail
1:29
40
Disney Movies...
0:56
41
Dragons World
1:41
42
War of Nations
0:38
43
Eredan Arena
0:39
44
World of Tanks
0:58
45
Grimfall
0:44
46
The Hobbit: Kingdoms...
0:39
47
High 5 Casino Real Slots
0:59
48
Gilt
0:38
49
Jelly Splash
0:28
50
Deer Hunter 2014
0:39
51
Empire Fleet
0:39
52
Trials Frontier
1:33
53
Royal Revolt 2
0:38
54
Realtor.com Rentals
1:09
55
Swoopt
0:23
56
Realtor.com
1:09
57
Scout
0:38
58
Injustice: Gods Among Us
1:09
59
Forest Mania
0:23
60
Transformers: Age of...
0:55
Total Time: 40 minutes and 31 seconds Now let's quickly add the 8 seconds between the trailers. 8 seconds multiplied by 59 times that this occurs between app trailers (since there are 60 of them) equals 7 minutes and 52 seconds. 40:31 + 7:52 = 48 minutes and 23 seconds Now, there are advertisements before the app trailers that are usually either 15 or 30 seconds long. Let's multiply their average length, 22.5 seconds, times the 60 times that they occur before the app trailers, which equals 22 minutes and 30 seconds. 48:23 + 22:30 = 1 hour, 10 minutes, and 53 seconds Next, we'll take into account the loading time of the advertisement, which usually lasted about 5 seconds on my device (Thanks to MichFaze for pointing this out!). 5 seconds times the 60 times this occurs gives us 5 minutes. 1:10:53 + 5 minutes = 1 hour, 15 minutes, and 53 seconds Finally there is a short pause between the advertisement and the app trailers that lasts about 2 seconds on my iPhone. Let's multiply this times the 60 times this occurs, which equals 2 minutes. 1:15:53 + 2 minutes = 1:17:53
-
-
Estimated Total Time
1 hour, 17 minutes, and 53 seconds or about 80 minutes
There you have it, ladies and gentlemen. Due to the nature of the human mind and its fallacies, I may have made an error in this calculation so please let me know where I may have gone wrong so I can fix it. Keep on Perking!
list tasks that paid you vs not paid or you had to quit for some reason
Let's start a thread about the tasks. I posted this in one of mythread after someone asked about it. it seems often the requirements for payments are such that you have to pay money to buy their shit. and without buying their shit, there is simply no way to finish the task. let's start a list where you tell us about all your shit tasks vs awesome tasks. for me, the games i couldn't reach the required levels were
vikings: war of clans
Island Experiment
myVEGAS Slots.
Forge of empire
war robots (I might have made a mistake in this though by not opening the app in stormplay)
cattle clash
my KONAMI slots
Final Fantasy XV
Merge Dragons
Free Slots Casino.
draftkings (this might have been my fault since I already had an account so I didn't register but logged in. and apparently the person who made the task only wanted new account sign ups. he should've made that clear.)
gummy drop
portal quest (got way past the level 11, required is level 10. but still no payment. it did say the payment may take additional time to receive the reward. but it didn't say how long.)
sayso rewards (absolutely the worst task ever. survey that never ends and pops up more surveys. )
jackpot magic slots (it opens other apps in google to install instead of the game itself. and then if you run it again, it pops up different apps in google play)
puzzle and dragons. the controls are so wonky and confusing. it's a very annoying game to play
ones that i was able to do without buying any shit, and paid out as they're supposed to are
Zynga poker
total trivia
panel app
vegas world casino
lords mobile
alliance
trivia crack
edit. 5-7-18 to add gummy drop edit. 5-8-18 to add portal quest, saysorewards, jackpot magic slots, puzzle and dragons.
Zynga's Quarterly Earnings & Hints about DoT's future
Zynga released their 10-Q and 8-K filings this week. Aside from copious information about how they lost another $9 million (albeit the best they've done in ages by far!), they also shared a few interesting tidbits (even some about DoT specifically):
"Dawn of Titans – Q1 represented our first full quarter for Dawn of Titans . Our teams have moved quickly into live operations mode by executing on a steady cadence of bold beats including a new Titan class – Ranger Titans – and an enhanced relic system. We’ve also added machine translation of chat and language support for Arabic to broaden our reach for players. In Q2, the team will introduce advancements in Quests and debut additional new features that will deepen the social and event strategy for our elder players."
"Our Q1 outperformance was largely driven by the strength of our live operations particularly across Zynga Poker, CSR2 and Social Slots." (DoT is conspicuously absent, hinting that it isn't a major contributor to revenues yet. Also a potent reminder that Zynga is a casino games company, and DoT is only a pretty wrapper around that reality.)
"Research and development expenses decreased $18.5 million in the first quarter of 2017 as compared to the same period of the prior year. The decrease was primarily attributable to a $12.5 million decrease in stock-based expense, a $3.3 million decrease in third party consulting expense and $2.0 million of expense recorded in the first quarter of 2016 to reflect the change in estimated fair value of the contingent consideration liability for Rising Tide."
"Investing activities used $44.7 million during the first quarter of 2017. The primary outflow of cash associated with investing activities was the acquisition of Solitaire mobile game applications from Harpan in the first quarter of 2017 for approximately $42.5 million, of which approximately $35.1 million was allocated to the business combination and $7.4 million was allocated to the non-competition agreements in other investing activities."
They're sitting on about $720 million in cash and equivalents.
Should you play the titan slot machine today? If you have tokens from the event, heck yeah. But should you buy gems to spend on it? Only if you're comfortable with the fact that there's a roughly 20-30% chance that you get ZERO 4* titans from 75 pulls ($500). Even worse if you play the 8k version of the slot machine.
Of course there's also the roughly 2-3% chance that you'll get 2 or more 4* in your first $100 (and an 75-80% chance you get none in that $100).
If you're a gambler, have at it. But be smart and set your budget first and stop when its out no matter what. And remember, the house always wins ... they're pros at this (https://www.zynga.com/casino-games).
PS. If you'd like to compute your chances for the number of pulls you're thinking about making: 1) Go to this binomial calculator: http://www.vassarstats.net/textbook/ch5apx.html 2) Enter N = number of pulls you will make (15 per $100) 3) Set k = number of 4* drops you want 4) Set p = 0.015 (or 0.02 if you're feeling lucky ... that's the rough range of probability for a 4* right now). 5) Click "Calculate" 6) The "P: k or more out of N" box tells you the chance you get that many titans or more. I like to set k=0 and see the "0 or fewer" box ... i.e., the chance that I'll get zero 4* for a given number of pulls. Best to know what you're getting into before you play the slot machine ...
Leading social gaming company Zynga has just introduced a new slot game to its popular Hit it Rich! social slots application. The new game is based on the hit comedy film Ted, which features a talking, moving and often less than polite teddy bear. The slot game features special sound bites as well as characters from Ted and is sure to be popular among fans of the film. People who play Ted will be able to take part in special head-to-head challenges, as well as access bonus games, access vibrant clips of the film and send gifts to friends within the game. The game is currently available in a total of seven different languages, while a mobile version is set to be released very soon. The news came hot on the heels of the Riches of Olympus launch, which occurred just last month. Hit it Rich! already boasts a large number of slots based on films and television shows including Sex and the City, Duck Dynasty, The Wizard of Oz, Elvira, Mistress of the Dark and The Terminator. All of these slots have proven to be extremely popular with lovers of the original television shows and films and are sure to inspire Zynga to increase more exciting games in this series. As if that wasn’t enough, Zynga is expanding the range of products offered in its vibrant casino franchise. New Zynga Poker is soon to be launched and is sure to be popular with poker players who enjoy stepping into the vibrant and innovative world of Zynga when they play. from via Casinoreviews
Blizzard doesn't want you to know. Hearthstone is a gamble you can afford to lose.
Blizzard is now all in casual gaming after their true gods, activision saw powerful time sinks like Candy Crush (which they recently acquired) bringing tons of dollars for very little investment. So why would anyone think Hearthstone a game that you can play on your tablet to be any different? You know a game that Blizzard admits was intended for casual players yet claims to be an Esport. The contradiction comes from Blizzard's marketing attempt of turning a card game heavily relying on chance into some sort of Esport by making comparisons in skill to Poker (a game played in gambling casinos) so they can justify their HS tournaments. Poker really? Why cause they got tournaments in poker at casinos and somehow makes it a competitive game? Well guess what? "In 2012, ....in the Journal of Gambling Studies, which argued that poker isn’t the game of skill that many players make it out to be. In the experiment, 300 participants were divided into “expert” versus “non-expert” groups, depending on whether they had an interest in the game or not. Then, they played 60 hands of Texas Hold’em in which the deals were fixed, so that players could get consistently good, bad or neutral hands. In a nutshell, the researchers found that there wasn’t much difference in the final amounts of money that the experts accrued compared with the non-experts, with the implication that skill level didn’t have much effect on the outcome. In other words, they argued, poker is a game of luck." https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2015/jan/14/poker-game-skill-luck-cepheus-bot-program The article continues explaining that the only part of the game that is not pure luck is the human element, you know like sitting across the table and reading tells, bluffs.... The only part which is nonexistent in online card games and why online card games fail in skill. You sit watch a screen with no human connection play random predetermined shuffles against your opponent that might as well be a bot. Moreover, while poker gives all players on the table equal chance of winning because they all draw from the SAME DECK, this game disadvantages each player who is dependant on their collection of cards, hence less refined decks means less chance of winning. So not only do you have to tackle a coin flip chance but you also lowering your chances by your poor collection. And how do you improve on your collection? By winning! Contrary to every blizzard statement of just enjoying the game and trying wacky failed decks, to increase your collection, you need to acquire gold, and to acquire gold you need to win or pay real dollars. This where PAY TO GAMBLE comes to play. If you want to increase your chances of winning, you would have to pay for packs which in itself is a gamble since paying DOES NOT GUARANTEE improving your collection. The geniuses at blizzard chose instead of going with a deduction mechanic in opening card packs that are NOT in your collection, you also have to deal with duplicate cards which you have no choice but to dust and lose value in your purchase. Of course they carrot stick you thinking you can do this all for free, but unlikely since it's a non deducing pack mechanic, that would take eons to do so. So how did they rig this one to give the illusion of a challenge, avoid alienating their casual players and not feel like bingo night? By rigging RNG of course. All great theatre at its core is behind curtains. This is how it works. Lower your winrate, RNG is more forgiving and gives you the right cards at the right time. Win lots of games and RNG goes from neutral to penalizing you while doing reverse to your opponent depending on his win rate. If your MMR rate is 60% and your chance of getting the right card to counter opponents hand would be at 40% each turn, same goes for your RNG cards. While your opponent win rate is at lets say 40%, he gets higher chance of getting right cards around 60%. Right cards means washing your opponent at every turn in face value of your working hand. Simple math here. If your win rate goes too high. You get opponents with near perfect draws and can pull easy combos while you struggle to get the right draws. As added bonus, MM matches your deck with a hard counter decks so that you reevaluate your deck often. In other terms, buy more packs to get more cards and build new decks to counter the deck which you lost to. It's a vicious cycle of reorganizing decks and Blizzard matching you with exact counter of your deck depending if you won too many games or not. This is a way for Blizzard to balance matches, has nothing to do with skill, it's all giving the illusion of "worthy challenge" since there is no way of gauging skill (there is little to none), it has to match games in a balance of chance between someone who was too lucky, too successful with his deck or too unlucky. This why everything in this game like every other Blizzard game is heavily dependant on servers and little is done on client side. One is security, the other is rigged RNG. This is exactly why there are no stats in this game, Blizzard doesn't want its players to figure out the mechanics of MM and tilting games by controlling RNG. For any professional Esport player, this should have been a red flag from the start. But the tournie players figured this out by third party stat counters, and this why they rotate their decks to circumvent RNG penalty by guessing what decks they might play against when there are limited amount of players in high ranks. They have that luxury since they have almost or if not all the cards in the game and create the most powerful decks to mitigate RNG and play the hard counters if they feel one deck is being play too much over the other. This is also the reason why cheap aggro decks are so successful. Who cares if the "right" draw is at 40% or 70% when your minions all same stats and you winning by numbers. This is a way of circumventing the RNG penalty and why aggro decks work so well and plague the game. Examples of extreme RNG manipulation: I get matched against a Murloc Paladin Rush RNG doesn't give any of my clearing spells until turn 6 which means I must lose. As a control warlock, I have 13 control/clearing cards. Pure RNG would have given at least 1 by then if I am life tapping and getting my free draw per turn... right? What the mathematical probability of that? Should I go buy a lottery ticket? Priests who always steal the right cards at the right time. Just last game mindgame's my deathwing at turn 4. In all of my cards, RNG chose the most powerful? On top of being miraculously an aggro priest which is super rare. Of course once you lose several games, RNG goes back to 50% then you become "competitive" again and you once again got flip coin chance of winning. Sometimes I know when RNG is going to penalize me from my starting hand. If I reshuffle my starting cards at least 1-2 of them will be the same cards I didn't want and I still get it back from reshuffle. These are incredible improbabilities. Or when I know RNG is in my favor, I guess what my next card going to be correctly. Like when opponent has board full of minions, I get my twisting nether clearing card or some other clearing spell. If he puts a big minion next card is a life siphon counter card. So don't tell me it's random, it's not. Each draw is being manipulated dependant on what cards each player has and what's on the board and depending on your win rate you get higher or lower chance than the median to draw the right counter. This is why by intent most of the time, the turns are a wash to keep the game interesting. How do they know what counters what? It's just pure math and that side log of card history isn't there for fun, Blizzard collects all the meta and the algos do the rest. We already know MM is not RNG in SC2 and Diablo 3 drops are controlled by input. All this luckily was explained by Diablo devs that they wanted a balance of controlled RNG but not enough to make it too easy to get the items you want. Notice each time using kadala or you missing a rare item, if you gamble for it, the likeliness of that type of drops in game from monster is more often. So for instance if you gambling for a specific ring from kadala, RNG will increase the droprate of rings over others when you kill monsters. Ok we can understand why they want to control RNG in SC2 MM and Diablo drops but why Blizzard doesn't want pure randomness in this game? Pure RNG would mean chaos, which means any randomized deck would have chance to climb to legend without any discrimination on player input or deck building. Which means bot heaven and F2Ps easily can easily breakout to top ranks without paying or much time invested. They definitely don't want this because they want you to buy more decks and frustrate you towards 50% win rate and give casual players equal chance of winning and to make you keep buying more packs and adventures and keep the sunk cost fallacy going. It also helps Blizzard focus less resources on balancing cards since algos will balance matches by draw. Sunk Cost Fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment So more time and money you invest, more you become committed even though it would be better off not to invest on a losing bet you keep hoping eventually will pay off. This game preys irrational human behavior to bulk up their profits and hence why so many hate this game and yet keep playing in growing numbers. Oh you just made a netdeck...sorry you still losing, maybe open a few more packs and get the right cards needed... you try those and win a few games, oops sorry again, lose 10 games this time... so now you make another deck open few more packs and keep buying packs that do not guarantee improvement and gamble away your money. It's quite genius that Blizzard circumvented state gambling laws by dressing this elaborate slot machine into a casual card game. Obviously, we can't technically call this gambling because your winnings are virtual goods and not considered as currency in any sort of way. So money goes in and NEVER comes out. This is just an elaborate slot machine that will never pay off and like they say....the house always wins. I am not saying this is good or bad but the truth must be known. I know conformists will be calling me crazy and tin foil hats and all. Just remember how Google and Facebook profit from your free "experiences" and how creepy some of their services are and how well they know you. Activision-Blizzard wanted a mobile game when Candy Crush and Zynga crap were huge hits. Knowing that the world was moving to mobile and that casual gaming (lack of skill time sink distractions) were becoming dominant. They opted to create the success of MTG with warcraft lore but like Diablo 3 (which many hated direction and design leader got fired) casual gaming was priority so they made this bingo style card game to make everyone feel they are competitive and skilled and not alienate the casual players, if they had made a game on pure skill and omitted all the RNG, they would have lacked the growth and profits they were targeting. So once you understand the business side, you can understand why they have set up the game this way and why they have done it before. This is nothing conspiratory, we live in 2016, metadata and algos rule the world. Just look at Wall St HFTs and silicon valley with all the unicorn virtual startups. If anyone still doesn't believe Activision/Blizzard focus will be ALL IN casual mobile gaming. Read this, they just finalized acquisition of Candy Crush company. The latest upcoming changes to HS was admitted to be an effort to make entry into HS even easier of subgrouping their old power creep expansions into Standard and Wild format modes. These are hints of massive change in Blizzard's direction which is dumbing down gaming and welcoming the masses. This is NOT exclusive to Blizzard, almost every gaming company is going down this path. Blizzard was one of the few who delayed it until it was acquired, and now it's time for their fans to decide with their wallets. http://www.engadget.com/2016/02/23/activision-closes-king-acquisition/ Blizzard employee indirectly admits RNG manipulation for their new overwatch game to favor MMR at 50% http://us.battle.net/forums/en/overwatch/topic/20742904212#10 Blizzard job section pretty much wants anyone good with aglos and data mining and sharing code among different teams within Blizzard gaming. They even say they want to rehash SIMILAR solutions when appropriate. This is not a company thinking out of the box, it's very clear they want to conform to the masses. "Communicate and collaborate constantly, sharing code, algorithms, research, and ideas to move Blizzard forward. As we work with our teammates towards a superior end result, we keep everybody on the same page, and remain professional, humble, civil and direct throughout. Keep it simple. We code every system with a clear purpose in mind, and we aim to keep them as simple as possible (and no simpler). We don’t create new solutions when appropriate ones already exist." http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/careers/roles/engineering.html Voting with your wallet is the only way companies listen. I am just trying to make people aware what's going on. As a person at my age with hands that can no longer tolerate high APM, I actually enjoy playing HS, not because I believe there is skill in it, because I find it entertaining and an easy game to waste time on. But make no mistake, just like casino games, HS was built to siphon money off of people who take it seriously and this is why they're baiting you with Esport tournaments and prizes, to make you believe it's very easy to climb the ladder and keep that sunk cost fallacy going. Disclosure, I never paid to play this game, so I just stick with classic cards 100% F2P, rank 14 this season.
Letting The Computer Gamble - Giving Holdem Poker A Shot
Prediksi Togel Online An important issue when learning how to play roulette would bets at both varieties of wheels are paid at odds that you will find true if perhaps the thirty-six numbers were on the wheels. Since that isn't case, your home advantage in roulette occurs because of your 0 while on the French wheel and the 0 and 00 on his or her American tyre. Collecting poker points is not hard enough. All you have to be able to is make use of your real deposited funds perform online gaming. Every raked cash game will award points, or at least partial goods. Paying tournament fees also awards points. Anyone collect enough points, you part of one's pending bonus released within the cash debt. Another primary sector planet gaming information mill Social Wagering. Activities like Slots Farm and Zynga make it simple for players to get excited about slots and poker with close friends on the internet. You start at level 1 and open brand-new games to play as you upgrade. In addition to starting your best slot game, you even create a farm, house or town with resources and jackpots that you win. There is controversy, after all, on whether the bill is even enforceable. After all, online poker rooms are situated outside fantastic. So how can as a famous law come in to sign up to them? Online Multiplayer Games always be the very popular Games, available in your laptop stores, that allow you compete with other people. If you wanted to play against someone before the world wide web was so popular, this is to invite your friend over and play by using a split film. On some Games it was possible to have two players competing over a Network, which was quite trendy. Major gambling sites attract tens of thousands of visitors day after day. There are even several sites for the people unwilling or unable to play for money: Many Prediksi togel singapura operate on the game credit basis, and you can play just for your fun from it without risking anything. So, whether more powerful and healthier to impress people collectively with your big gambling scores or get a try at cash online, the look at online playing! This new fad is fast to become a demand lack are insisting on. Cause? It's convenient and safe. Yes, it's comfortable. You can win big or only a few bucks. 100 % possible play some thing people or maybe an a set of. You can download the games or play interactively from your home. Holdem poker is a single of many of the free online games you discover as well, but is definitely one in the most best-selling. For incredibly best reason why you should try online bingo is an individual can always access and play bingo at private comfort. Online casinos are a person the best reason why you should stay home instead of traveling to land-based betting houses. You got to savor the same game various kind of pleasure.
Hey, I'm the cofounder and CEO of Fox Cub, a fully remote game development studio. We started the company 4 years ago, and we've grown to ~25 people in ~10 countries. We're looking to hire a PM/Data analyst. You should love data, be very comfortable writing SQL, and be very familiar with mobile or social games. We're a small team, so we need someone who's comfortable wearing both the PM and analyst hats. We'd start you in the data analyst role. You'll get familiar with our tracking methods, run some experiments on our exist games, analyze the results and generally learn the social casino space (we make mobile free-to-play slots games). Once that's solid, we'll add the PM functions and you'll help make recommendations for new experiments and drive feature improvements and optimization. You'll work closely with me and the rest of our design team. My cofounder and I are both Zynga alums, so we take analytics and PMing very seriously. We don't care where you are in the world, but you must be able to consistently work core hours of 9-5 Pacific Time. We collaborate online with Slack, Teamspeak, and Hangouts. If you're interested, please take a look at this technical test. Send us your answer and resume to [email protected]. Look forward to talking to you! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ We are trying to analyze the 3-day ROAS (return on ad spend) for a number of marketing channels. 3D-ROAS is defined as (the total revenue from all users from a particular install source earned within 3 calendar days of installing the game) divided by (the total cost of acquiring all the users from that install source). In this example we have dozens of different install sources, and we'd like to quickly see at a glance how each one is performing over time. Typical questions we want to ask are: which sources we should increase spend on, which sources we should decrease spend on, which sources are behaving strangely. We'd like to see a a table where each row is a different install source, each column is a different install period (grouped by week), and each cell is the 3D-ROAS of that install source for that install period. The two source tables you have available to work with are: revenue:
dt (timestamp)
user_id (string)
usd_spend (float)
install:
dt (timestamp)
user_id (string)
source (string)
cost (float)
Please send us the SQL you wrote to solve this problem. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Also. here's some generic starter code to help get you going: create table revenue ( dt TIMESTAMP, user_id VARCHAR(36), usd_spend FLOAT ); insert into revenue values ('01-JAN-2017 02:01:01', 'alice', 3.5); create table install ( dt TIMESTAMP, user_id VARCHAR(36), source VARCHAR(36), cost FLOAT ); insert into install values ('01-JAN-2017 00:00:00', 'alice', 'facebook-A', 5.5)
Google Play - App Statistics - Momentum Games - Week 2014-40
Last week, I posted some statistics about the Google Play store. People here seemed to like the listing of the games with the highest momentum most, so I thought I could post that data regularly :) In order to be considered here, a game must have at least 1k 5-star ratings in their second to last update. So here we go: Action
BombSquad 5-stars from 7158 to 9826 in 894 minutes (+37.3%)
Zombie Harvest 5-stars from 1762 to 1895 in 675 minutes (+7.5%)
Action Games 5-stars from 2728 to 2972 in 850 minutes (+8.9%)
The Maze Runner 5-stars from 21725 to 24041 in 1035 minutes (+10.7%)
Blizzard doesn't want you to know. Hearthstone is a gamble you can afford to lose.
Blizzard is now all in casual gaming after their true gods, activision saw powerful time sinks like Candy Crush (which they recently acquired) bringing tons of dollars for very little investment. So why would anyone think Hearthstone a game that you can play on your tablet to be any different? You know a game that Blizzard admits was intended for casual players yet claims to be an Esport. The contradiction comes from Blizzard's marketing attempt of turning a card game heavily relying on chance into some sort of Esport by making comparisons in skill to Poker (a game played in gambling casinos) so they can justify their HS tournaments. Poker really? Why cause they got tournaments in poker at casinos and somehow makes it a competitive game? Well guess what? "In 2012, ....in the Journal of Gambling Studies, which argued that poker isn’t the game of skill that many players make it out to be. In the experiment, 300 participants were divided into “expert” versus “non-expert” groups, depending on whether they had an interest in the game or not. Then, they played 60 hands of Texas Hold’em in which the deals were fixed, so that players could get consistently good, bad or neutral hands. In a nutshell, the researchers found that there wasn’t much difference in the final amounts of money that the experts accrued compared with the non-experts, with the implication that skill level didn’t have much effect on the outcome. In other words, they argued, poker is a game of luck." https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2015/jan/14/poker-game-skill-luck-cepheus-bot-program The article continues explaining that the only part of the game that is not pure luck is the human element, you know like sitting across the table and reading tells, bluffs.... The only part which is nonexistent in online card games and why online card games fail in skill. You sit watch a screen with no human connection play random predetermined shuffles against your opponent that might as well be a bot. Moreover, while poker gives all players on the table equal chance of winning because they all draw from the SAME DECK, this game disadvantages each player who is dependant on their collection of cards, hence less refined decks means less chance of winning. So not only do you have to tackle a coin flip chance but you also lowering your chances by your poor collection. And how do you improve on your collection? By winning! Contrary to every blizzard statement of just enjoying the game and trying wacky failed decks, to increase your collection, you need to acquire gold, and to acquire gold you need to win or pay real dollars. This where PAY TO GAMBLE comes to play. If you want to increase your chances of winning, you would have to pay for packs which in itself is a gamble since paying DOES NOT GUARANTEE improving your collection. The geniuses at blizzard chose instead of going with a deduction mechanic in opening card packs that are NOT in your collection, you also have to deal with duplicate cards which you have no choice but to dust and lose value in your purchase. Of course they carrot stick you thinking you can do this all for free, but unlikely since it's a non deducing pack mechanic, that would take eons to do so. So how did they rig this one to give the illusion of a challenge, avoid alienating their casual players and not feel like bingo night? By rigging RNG of course. All great theatre at its core is behind curtains. This is how it works. Lower your winrate, RNG is more forgiving and gives you the right cards at the right time. Win lots of games and RNG goes from neutral to penalizing you while doing reverse to your opponent depending on his win rate. If your MMR rate is 60% and your chance of getting the right card to counter opponents hand would be at 40% each turn, same goes for your RNG cards. While your opponent win rate is at lets say 40%, he gets higher chance of getting right cards around 60%. Right cards means washing your opponent at every turn in face value of your working hand. Simple math here. If your win rate goes too high. You get opponents with near perfect draws and can pull easy combos while you struggle to get the right draws. As added bonus, MM matches your deck with a hard counter decks so that you reevaluate your deck often. In other terms, buy more packs to get more cards and build new decks to counter the deck which you lost to. It's a vicious cycle of reorganizing decks and Blizzard matching you with exact counter of your deck depending if you won too many games or not. This is a way for Blizzard to balance matches, has nothing to do with skill, it's all giving the illusion of "worthy challenge" since there is no way of gauging skill (there is little to none), it has to match games in a balance of chance between someone who was too lucky, too successful with his deck or too unlucky. This why everything in this game like every other Blizzard game is heavily dependant on servers and little is done on client side. One is security, the other is rigged RNG. This is exactly why there are no stats in this game, Blizzard doesn't want its players to figure out the mechanics of MM and tilting games by controlling RNG. For any professional Esport player, this should have been a red flag from the start. But the tournie players figured this out by third party stat counters, and this why they rotate their decks to circumvent RNG penalty by guessing what decks they might play against when there are limited amount of players in high ranks. They have that luxury since they have almost or if not all the cards in the game and create the most powerful decks to mitigate RNG and play the hard counters if they feel one deck is being play too much over the other. This is also the reason why cheap aggro decks are so successful. Who cares if the "right" draw is at 40% or 70% when your minions all same stats and you winning by numbers. This is a way of circumventing the RNG penalty and why aggro decks work so well and plague the game. Examples of extreme RNG manipulation: I get matched against a Murloc Paladin Rush RNG doesn't give any of my clearing spells until turn 6 which means I must lose. As a control warlock, I have 13 control/clearing cards. Pure RNG would have given at least 1 by then if I am life tapping and getting my free draw per turn... right? What the mathematical probability of that? Should I go buy a lottery ticket? Priests who always steal the right cards at the right time. Just last game mindgame's my deathwing at turn 4. In all of my cards, RNG chose the most powerful? On top of being miraculously an aggro priest which is super rare. Of course once you lose several games, RNG goes back to 50% then you become "competitive" again and you once again got flip coin chance of winning. Sometimes I know when RNG is going to penalize me from my starting hand. If I reshuffle my starting cards at least 1-2 of them will be the same cards I didn't want and I still get it back from reshuffle. These are incredible improbabilities. Or when I know RNG is in my favor, I guess what my next card going to be correctly. Like when opponent has board full of minions, I get my twisting nether clearing card or some other clearing spell. If he puts a big minion next card is a life siphon counter card. So don't tell me it's random, it's not. Each draw is being manipulated dependant on what cards each player has and what's on the board and depending on your win rate you get higher or lower chance than the median to draw the right counter. This is why by intent most of the time, the turns are a wash to keep the game interesting. How do they know what counters what? It's just pure math and that side log of card history isn't there for fun, Blizzard collects all the meta and the algos do the rest. We already know MM is not RNG in SC2 and Diablo 3 drops are controlled by input. All this luckily was explained by Diablo devs that they wanted a balance of controlled RNG but not enough to make it too easy to get the items you want. Notice each time using kadala or you missing a rare item, if you gamble for it, the likeliness of that type of drops in game from monster is more often. So for instance if you gambling for a specific ring from kadala, RNG will increase the droprate of rings over others when you kill monsters. Ok we can understand why they want to control RNG in SC2 MM and Diablo drops but why Blizzard doesn't want pure randomness in this game? Pure RNG would mean chaos, which means any randomized deck would have chance to climb to legend without any discrimination on player input or deck building. Which means bot heaven and F2Ps easily can easily breakout to top ranks without paying or much time invested. They definitely don't want this because they want you to buy more decks and frustrate you towards 50% win rate and give casual players equal chance of winning and to make you keep buying more packs and adventures and keep the sunk cost fallacy going. It also helps Blizzard focus less resources on balancing cards since algos will balance matches by draw. Sunk Cost Fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment So more time and money you invest, more you become committed even though it would be better off not to invest on a losing bet you keep hoping eventually will pay off. This game preys irrational human behavior to bulk up their profits and hence why so many hate this game and yet keep playing in growing numbers. Oh you just made a netdeck...sorry you still losing, maybe open a few more packs and get the right cards needed... you try those and win a few games, oops sorry again, lose 10 games this time... so now you make another deck open few more packs and keep buying packs that do not guarantee improvement and gamble away your money. It's quite genius that Blizzard circumvented state gambling laws by dressing this elaborate slot machine into a casual card game. Obviously, we can't technically call this gambling because your winnings are virtual goods and not considered as currency in any sort of way. So money goes in and NEVER comes out. This is just an elaborate slot machine that will never pay off and like they say....the house always wins. I am not saying this is good or bad but the truth must be known. I know conformists will be calling me crazy and tin foil hats and all. Just remember how Google and Facebook profit from your free "experiences" and how creepy some of their services are and how well they know you. Activision-Blizzard wanted a mobile game when Candy Crush and Zynga crap were huge hits. Knowing that the world was moving to mobile and that casual gaming (lack of skill time sink distractions) were becoming dominant. They opted to create the success of MTG with warcraft lore but like Diablo 3 (which many hated direction and design leader got fired) casual gaming was priority so they made this bingo style card game to make everyone feel they are competitive and skilled and not alienate the casual players, if they had made a game on pure skill and omitted all the RNG, they would have lacked the growth and profits they were targeting. So once you understand the business side, you can understand why they have set up the game this way and why they have done it before. This is nothing conspiratory, we live in 2016, metadata and algos rule the world. Just look at Wall St HFTs and silicon valley with all the unicorn virtual startups. If anyone still doesn't believe Activision/Blizzard focus will be ALL IN casual mobile gaming. Read this, they just finalized acquisition of Candy Crush company. The latest upcoming changes to HS was admitted to be an effort to make entry into HS even easier of subgrouping their old power creep expansions into Standard and Wild format modes. These are hints of massive change in Blizzard's direction which is dumbing down gaming and welcoming the masses. This is NOT exclusive to Blizzard, almost every gaming company is going down this path. Blizzard was one of the few who delayed it until it was acquired, and now it's time for their fans to decide with their wallets. http://www.engadget.com/2016/02/23/activision-closes-king-acquisition/ Blizzard employee indirectly admits RNG manipulation for their new overwatch game to favor MMR at 50% http://us.battle.net/forums/en/overwatch/topic/20742904212#10 Blizzard job section pretty much wants anyone good with aglos and data mining and sharing code among different teams within Blizzard gaming. They even say they want to rehash SIMILAR solutions when appropriate. This is not a company thinking out of the box, it's very clear they want to conform to the masses. "Communicate and collaborate constantly, sharing code, algorithms, research, and ideas to move Blizzard forward. As we work with our teammates towards a superior end result, we keep everybody on the same page, and remain professional, humble, civil and direct throughout. Keep it simple. We code every system with a clear purpose in mind, and we aim to keep them as simple as possible (and no simpler). We don’t create new solutions when appropriate ones already exist." http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/careers/roles/engineering.html Voting with your wallet is the only way companies listen. I am just trying to make people aware what's going on. As a person at my age with hands that can no longer tolerate high APM, I actually enjoy playing HS, not because I believe there is skill in it, because I find it entertaining and an easy game to waste time on. But make no mistake, just like casino games, HS was built to siphon money off of people who take it seriously and this is why they're baiting you with Esport tournaments and prizes, to make you believe it's very easy to climb the ladder and keep that sunk cost fallacy going. Disclosure, I never paid to play this game, so I just stick with classic cards 100% F2P, rank 14 this season.
Blizzard is now all in casual gaming after their true gods, activision saw powerful time sinks like Candy Crush (which they recently acquired) bringing tons of dollars for very little investment. So why would anyone think Hearthstone a game that you can play on your tablet to be any different? You know a game that Blizzard admits was intended for casual players yet claims to be an Esport. The contradiction comes from Blizzard's marketing attempt of turning a card game heavily relying on chance into some sort of Esport by making comparisons in skill to Poker (a game played in gambling casinos) to justify their HS tournaments. Well guess what? "In 2012, ....in the Journal of Gambling Studies, which argued that poker isn’t the game of skill that many players make it out to be. In the experiment, 300 participants were divided into “expert” versus “non-expert” groups, depending on whether they had an interest in the game or not. Then, they played 60 hands of Texas Hold’em in which the deals were fixed, so that players could get consistently good, bad or neutral hands. In a nutshell, the researchers found that there wasn’t much difference in the final amounts of money that the experts accrued compared with the non-experts, with the implication that skill level didn’t have much effect on the outcome. In other words, they argued, poker is a game of luck." https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2015/jan/14/poker-game-skill-luck-cepheus-bot-program The article continues explaining that the only part of the game that is not pure luck is the human element, you know like sitting across the table and reading tells, bluffs.... Something that is nonexistent in online card games and they fail in similarity. You sit watch a screen with no human connection play random predetermined shuffles against your opponent that might as well be a bot. Moreover, while poker gives all players on the table equal chance of winning because they all draw from the SAME DECK, this game disadvantages each player who is dependant on their collection of cards, hence less refined decks means less chance of winning. So not only do you have to tackle a coin flip chance but you also lowering your chances by your poor collection. And how do you improve on your collection? By winning! Contrary to general statements of just enjoying the game and trying wacky failed decks, to increase your collection, you need to acquire gold, and to acquire gold you need to win or pay real dollars. This where PAY TO GAMBLE comes to play. If you want to increase your chances of winning, you would have to pay for packs which in itself is a gamble since paying DOES NOT GUARANTEE improving your collection. The geniuses at blizzard chose instead of going with a deduction mechanic in opening card packs that are NOT in your collection, you also have to deal with duplicate cards which you have no choice but to dust and lose value in your purchase. Of course they carrot stick you thinking you can do this all for free, but unlikely since it's a non deducing pack mechanic, that would take eons to do so. So how did they rig this one to give the illusion of a challenge, avoid alienating their casual players and not feel like bingo night? By tilting RNG of course. All great theatre at its core is behind curtains. This is how it works. Lower your winrate, RNG is more forgiving and gives you the right cards at the right time. Win lots of games and RNG goes from neutral to penalizing you while doing reverse to your opponent depending on his win rate. If your MMR rate is 60% and your chance of getting the right card to counter opponents hand would be at 40% each turn, same goes for your RNG cards. While your opponent win rate is at lets say 40%, he gets higher chance of getting right cards around 60%. Right cards means washing your opponent at every turn in face value of your working hand. Simple math here. If your win rate goes too high. You get opponents with near perfect draws and can pull easy combos while you struggle to get the right draws. As added bonus, MM matches your deck with a hard counter decks so that you reevaluate your deck often. In other terms, buy more packs to get more cards and build new decks to counter the deck which you lost to. It's a vicious cycle of reorganizing decks and Blizzard matching you with exact counter of your deck depending if you won too many games or not. This is a way for Blizzard to balance matches and giving the illusion of "worthy challenge" since there is no way of gauging skill or dare I say lack of it, it has to match games in a balance of chance between someone who was too lucky, too successful with his deck or too unlucky. This why everything in this game like every other Blizzard game is heavily dependant on servers and little is done on client side. One is security, the other is balancing. But professional players figured this out by third party stat counters, and this why they rotate their decks to circumvent RNG penalty by guessing what decks they might play against when there are limited amount of players in high ranks. They have that luxury since they have almost or if not all the cards in the game and create the most powerful decks to mitigate RNG and play the hard counters if they feel one deck is being play too much over the other. This is also the reason why cheap aggro decks are so successful. Who cares if the "right" draw is at 40% or 70% when your minions all same stats and you winning by numbers. This is a way of circumventing the RNG penalty and why aggro decks work so well and plague the game. We already incredible work that has been implemented in SC2 to match games perfectly and how Diablo 3 drops are controlled by input. All this luckily was explained by Diablo devs that they wanted a balance of controlled RNG but not enough to make it too easy to get the items you want. Notice each time using kadala or you missing a rare item, if you gamble for it, the likeliness of that type of drops in game from monster is more often. So for instance if you gambling for a specific ring from kadala, RNG will increase the droprate of rings over others when you kill monsters. Ok we can understand why they want to control RNG in SC2 MM and Diablo drops but why Blizzard doesn't want pure randomness in this game? Pure RNG would mean chaos, which means any randomized deck would have chance to climb to legend without any discrimination on player input or deck building. Which means bot heaven and F2Ps easily can easily breakout to top ranks without paying or much time invested. They definitely don't want this because they want you to buy more decks and keep you towards 50% win rate and give casual players equal chance of winning and to make you keep buying more packs and adventures and keep the sunk cost fallacy going. It also helps Blizzard focus less resources on balancing cards since algos will balance matches by draw. Sunk Cost Fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment So more time and money you invest, more you become committed even though it would be better off not to invest on a losing bet you keep hoping eventually will pay off. This game similar to casinos prey on irrational human behavior to bulk up their profits and major component as to why so many get frustrated by this game and yet keep playing in growing numbers. Oh you just made a recipe deck...sorry you still losing, maybe open a few more packs and get the right cards needed... you try those and win a few games, oops sorry again, lose 10 games this time... so now you make another deck open few more packs and keep buying packs that do not guarantee improvement and gamble away your money. It's quite genius that Blizzard circumvented state gambling laws by dressing this elaborate slot machine into a casual card game. Obviously, we can't technically call this gambling because your winnings are virtual goods and not considered as currency in any sort of way. So money goes in and NEVER comes out. This is just an elaborate slot machine that will never pay off and like they say....the house always wins. Just remember how Google and Facebook is metadata, aglos and ads. Activision-Blizzard wanted a mobile game when Candy Crush and Zynga crap were huge hits. Knowing that the world was moving to mobile and that casual gaming (lack of skill time sink distractions) were becoming dominant. They opted to create the success of MTG with warcraft lore but like Diablo 3 (which many hated direction and design leader got fired) casual gaming was priority so they made this bingo style card game to make everyone feel they are competitive and skilled and not alienate the casual players. If they had made a game on pure skill like chess and omitted all the RNG, they would have lacked the growth and profits they were targeting. So once you understand the business side, you can understand why they have set up the game this way and why they have done it before. We live in 2016, metadata and algos rule the world. Just look at Wall St HFTs and silicon valley with all the unicorn virtual startups. If anyone still doesn't believe Activision/Blizzard focus will be ALL IN casual mobile gaming. Read this, they just finalized acquisition of Candy Crush company. The latest upcoming changes to HS was admitted to be an effort to make entry into HS even easier of subgrouping their old power creep expansions into Standard and Wild format modes. These are hints of massive change in Blizzard's direction which is dumbing down gaming and welcoming the masses. This is NOT exclusive to Blizzard, almost every gaming company is going down this path. Blizzard was one of the few who delayed it until it was acquired, and now it's time for their fans to decide with their wallets. http://www.engadget.com/2016/02/23/activision-closes-king-acquisition/ Blizzard employee indirectly admits RNG manipulation for their new overwatch game to favor MMR at 50% http://us.battle.net/forums/en/overwatch/topic/20742904212#10 Blizzard job section pretty much wants anyone good with algos and data mining and sharing code among different teams within Blizzard gaming. They even say they want to rehash SIMILAR solutions when appropriate, that means sharing algo code among its games. http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/careers/roles/engineering.html MIT claims random is not possible with conventional computers. http://engineering.mit.edu/ask/can-computer-generate-truly-random-number
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