This is just mock draft 1 and we're a long way from the actual draft so I'm open to criticism, position suggestions, player evaluation disagreements, etc. Let me know what you think (third round explanations deleted due to word count restraints).

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Lawrence is in the discussion for best QB prospect of all time and will be the pick.
   
2. New York Jets - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State. I'm working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not be traded. After a deep dive into analytics and spending way too much time breaking down game tape, I personally would go with Fields over Wilson. But, they have virtually the same grade and I would not be shocked by either player being picked.
   
3. Denver Broncos (from Miami via Houston) - QB Zach Wilson, BYU. With Zach Wilson still on the board at pick 3, John Elway, George Paton and the Broncos go all in to get their franchise QB. If your division rival is lining up Patrick Mahomes under center, you need to do better than Drew Lock to compete. The Broncos have a franchise left tackle to anchor their line, and a very talented young group of weapons. They've build a roster friendly to a franchise QB, so the timing is right to make this move for Denver. As the Rams have proven, you don't need first round picks to build a roster that competes for championships.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon. I 'm not sure this move will be popular with Falcons fans, but here goes. With the Broncos trading up and taking the last of the top QBs in this class off the board, the Falcons suddenly have a difficult decision to make. Do you take a raw, inexperienced QB like Trey Lance, or do you take best player available? Here I have the Falcons going best player available because Matt Ryan is still a top QB, and due to his contract situation he's going to be on the roster for at least two more years. That gives them a bigger window to add more talent to the roster before selecting Ryan's replacement. And it would probably be prudent for the Falcons to build a roster then get a QB, rather than get a QB and build the roster after, when the QB prospect in question is a project. Unfortunately, there are no pass rushing prospects who really fit here, although Dean Pees' defense should help to mask that deficiency some and there are good value prospects who should be available on day 2. A.J. Terrell had a promising rookie season, but beyond him they need both depth and talent at CB so one of the top CB prospects is an option here. However, for Arthur Smith's new offense getting a prospect like Sewell is too good of an option. With his contract being easy to move on from, I'm projecting the Falcons cut James Carpenter and select Sewell to move to guard to start his career. This gives them a lot of talent on the offensive line and a lot of flexibility in the future. Should Matthews begin to decline, they can move on and slide Sewell out to left. If McGary doesn't get better in his third year, Sewell could be a long term replacement there. And the main factor that led me to making this pick is that Arthur Smith didn't take the Atlanta job to rebuild. He's got a really good QB in Matt Ryan and Sewell at guard gives the Falcons the best chance at closing out the Ryan era on a high note.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern. Thanks to the Broncos trading up for Wilson, the Bengals are guaranteed at least one of the top offensive line prospects in the class being on the board, and although Sewell is gone at 4 Slater is still an excellent prize at 5. As tempting as it may be to reunite Burrow and Chase, the Bengals have to protect their franchise QB. Ideally, Jonah Williams is healthy, but after two years he's had a tough time staying on the field so a guy like Slater who can play any position on the line is perfect here.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama. While I do think it would be smart for the Eagles to draft a CB here, I think Nick Sirianni's odds of surviving in Philly will go way down if he can't fix Wentz. I also think Roseman knows his job is tied to the success of Wentz, given the contract he gave to Wentz. Because of that I've decided to go with a WR here. If I'm being honest, I'm not entirely sure that Smith is the best WR prospect in this class. It's really close between the top 3. However, I think the areas in which Smith excels make him the best fit for Sirianni's offense.
   
7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU. While QB was expected to be a target, thanks to the acquisition of Jared Goff the Lions do not need to draft a QB here. In fact, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Lions pick a QB here. Jared Goff has had success in the NFL and he's helped lead his team to a Super Bowl, he may not be a top QB but he's a capable starter. Given the influx of draft capital, the Lions cap situation, and the fact that Goff's contract is virtually unmovable for the next two years they are likely going to use this window to build the roster back up. While I think a CB could be a good fit here, they did just draft Okudah last year who should be given a chance to grow in a new defense, especially since the transition from college to the NFL takes longer at that position. Micah Parsons is tempting here too, as linebacker is a need for the Lions. But given the cap situation and the fact that Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, I've decided to give the Lions a WR. Not only does this give the Lions a cheap, young, and talented option at WR (allowing them to move on from some of those would-be free agents), he's also arguably the top prospect left on the board.
   
8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama. There are a lot of options the Panthers could go with here. I debated between Micah Parsons and Surtain here because while I think the Panthers defense should improve next year, they're still missing consistent ILB play as well as a true #1 CB. Ultimately I chose Surtain over Parsons based on positional value given similar position on my board. I also chose Surtain over Farley because I think he's a better fit in Phil Snow's defense. He's physical and sticky in coverage, and I think he would be a great complement at cornerback to go with safety Chinn. I think OL could be considered here, but I'm not sure reaching for OL when there is better value at other positions of need makes sense. Trey Lance could be an option here, but I (perhaps incorrectly) think Fitterer and Rhule will pass on a QB if they can get a top defensive prospect. This would effectively buy another year for them to build up the roster if they choose to go with a QB in the first round of 2022.
   
9. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State. Thanks to a number of trades, real and mocked, the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital and they can use some of that to get weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. But here, they take the best player still on the board. Brian Flores loves to blitz, and Parsons is one of the best blitzing linebacker prospects in years. Jaylen Waddle would be a good pick here too, but the fit is too perfect for me to pass here.
   
10. Dallas Cowboys - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech. The Cowboys offense will not be a problem with Prescott back in the lineup. The defense needs a lot of work though, so as tempting as Kyle Pitts may be the Cowboys will almost certainly go defense here. The Cowboys have some cornerbacks set to be free agents but they are not worth re-signing. Farley is the best cornerback on the board and is a great value here for Dallas. The Cowboys could look at a couple other positions on defense, but they won't find the value they'd be getting in Caleb Farley.
    
11. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State. With the 49ers pick looming, the Bears pull the trigger to move up and get their QB. The Bears have Nick Foles under contract for two more years but he can be cut after next season. Given that situation, the Bears can afford to sit Lance for at least a year and let him develop. He's got all of the tools to be a great QB, but due to the fact that he only played one year at the FCS level, he falls to 11.
    
12. San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina. Injuries decimated a roster that is talented enough to compete for championships when healthy, so the 49ers can afford to focus on needs. Horn might be seen as a reach here by some, but the drop-off at cornerback is huge and the 49ers need to address the position in the offseason with so many impending free agents. Regardless, Horn is an excellent prospect and be a good pick for first time DC Ryans.
    
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC. Justin Herbert emerged as one of the most promising young QBs in the game despite poor offensive line play. The Chargers need to improve the line, so they can't justify reaching for a tackle because of positional value. They just need to take the best lineman on the board, and that's Vera-Tucker. There's some discussion as to whether he can make it as a tackle at the next level, but most have him projected as a guard. Wherever he plays, he should be an upgrade for the Chargers.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan. The Vikings would love to improve their interior offensive line, but there's better value on day 2, so the Vikings go with a pass rusher here. The Vikings had one of the best defenses in 2019, and a big part of that was the pass rush. Last year however, the pass rush was ineffective and the defense fell apart. Getting Danielle Hunter back and pairing him with Paye while rotating D.J. Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes in could restore the Vikings pass rush and help get them back to the postseason.
    
15. New England Patriots - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame. Although he played in a different scheme at Notre Dame than Bill Belichick uses, Owusu-Koramoah is one of the most versatile defenders in the class. He has shown the ability to rush the passer, drop back in coverage, and his elite sideline to sideline speed for the position that makes him an ideal linebacker against modern offenses. The Patriots need to get younger and faster on defense. As much as I want to add a weapon like Waddle or Pitts to the Patriots, I'm just not convinced that Belichick will actually do that in the first round.
    
16. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL). With Haason Reddick and Markus Golden both set to hit free agency, and Chandler Jones coming off of an injury, heading into his age 31 season, and on the final year of his contract, the Cardinals pass rush is inevitably going to look different in the next couple of years. With a prospect as good as Phillips on the board, drafting him to replace Jones and re-signing Reddick will give the Cardinals a formidable pass rush for the foreseeable future. If the Cardinals want to continue to close the gap with the Rams and Seahawks, they can't let their pass rush decline.
    
17. Las Vegas Raiders - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama. Every year a couple players drop farther than they should. This year, one of those players is Jaylen Waddle. The Raiders need to improve their defense, and there are some tempting players on the board for the Raiders to take, such as Gregory Rousseau. But the Raiders outside threats could have been better this year, and Jon Gruden will jump at the opportunity to put Waddle with Waller and Ruggs. Waddle is up there with the best weapons in this class, so this is a great value for the Raiders at 17.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida. Having already landed one of the best defensive players, Miami now turns its attention to surrounding Tagovailoa with the talent to thrive. The Dolphins got good production from DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, but could upgrade the rest of their receiving corps. Toney is electric and gives the Dolphins a playmaker over the middle of the field, which is exactly what Miami could use to help Tagovailoa grow.
    
19. Washington Football Team - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida. Washington didn't get their QB in this draft, but they get incredible value at 19 in Pitts. Besides Terry McLaurin, Washington doesn't really have a true playmaker at receiver so Pitts would immediately upgrade the offense. Given how good Washington's defense is, if they can't get a QB by trading up their main goal should be to improve their weapons and Pitts would be the ideal scenario.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL). The Giants biggest need is probably their wide receiver room, but with the top prospect on the board being a pass rusher, the Giants go with one of the highest upside defensive prospects in the class in Rousseau. The Giants don't have a lot of talent on the edge, so they fill a need here.
    
21. Indianapolis Colts - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech. The Colts have boasted one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in recent years, and with Anthony Castonzo retiring, the Colts will want to keep their line in top shape by drafting his replacement. His length, athleticism, and intelligence make him the preferred tackle target for the Colts here.
    
22. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas. The Titans are a very good team, and most improvements that could be made would be to improve depth. But the one area the Titans desperately need to improve if they want to legitimately compete for championships is their pass rush and defensive line. Ossai is the most explosive pass rush prospect left on the board who can fit with their defensive scheme.
    
23. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Jets via Seattle) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama. The 49ers move up to get the guy they believe can be their next franchise QB. In this scenario, the 49ers were targeting Trey Lance at 12, but because of the Chicago trade, they opted instead to take Horn, who is higher on the draft board and can help their secondary which will be losing some pieces to free agency. When Mac Jones gets past Washington at 19, they believe they can move up into the mid-20s for a reasonable value and get their QB. The best value in terms of trading draft capital is at 23, and they have to make this move to get ahead of Pittsburgh who could potentially take Jones to replace Ben Roethlisberger. The 49ers are now without a pick until the 5th round, but it's worth it to secure their QB of the future.
    
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan. The Steelers cap space isn't great right now, although Roethlisberger restructuring his contract will help. In any case, the Steelers are going to have to move on from some players, and one that makes sense is Alejandro Villanueva. He's played well, but he's going to be 33 next year, and rather than paying a veteran LT salary with tight cap space, it makes sense to draft his replacement. Mayfield is very technically sound and is nasty, two things that have defined Pittsburgh offensive line play over the years. There may be concern about him playing right tackle at Michigan, but as Jedrick Wills proved for the Browns, a move to left tackle is possible for a top prospect. Running back is also a possibility here, but there's better value in later rounds.
    
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU. The Jaguars weren't accidentally the number one pick. They were terrible on both offense and defense, and with so much early draft capital they don't have to reach on players in the name of protecting Lawrence at all costs. The Jaguars have some nice weapons on offense, and there will be good offensive line prospects on the board in the second round. They need to improve their secondary badly, and Moehrig is an immediate impact player with good versatility, and would be an instant upgrade over Josh Jones, who should not return to the team in 2021. Moehrig is arguably the highest graded prospect left on the board, he has a high floor, he's ready to play right away, and he fills a need.
    
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa. The Browns have a lot of holes on defense, and linebacker in particular is an area that they need to address. Despite being massive for a linebacker, Collins is quick and athletic and can play in coverage. He also has good pass rushing ability, which is an area that Cleveland needs to improve opposite of Myles Garrett. His versatility makes him valuable in multiple packages which should help him get on the field early, something that Cleveland should value at the end of the first round given that their competitive window is open.
    
27. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, but with such a good, deep running attack, the Ravens can afford to wait until the second round. The Ravens have several pass rushers set to become free agents, and they won't be able to bring all of them back. In any case, the Ravens could use an upgrade at the position anyway. Although Ojulari played in 4 man fronts, his size, speed, and athleticism make him a natural fit as an edge rusher in a 3 man front defense. His energy is also a great fit for the Ravens defense.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State. The Saints have the worst cap situation in the NFL and because of that they're going to lose some key free agents. One guy that they almost certainly will not be able to retain is breakout DE Trey Hendrickson, who registered 13.5 sacks in 2020 and should be in line for a nice raise on the free agent market. Oweh has tremendous upside due to his freakish athleticism, explosiveness, and length. He's a bit raw, and will need some time to develop, but with Cameron Jordan on the opposite side of the line Oweh is the type of player the Saints can afford to target.
    
29. Green Bay Packers - WR Tutu Atwell, Louisville. Aaron Rodgers covers the deficiencies of the wide receiver room well, but the Packers do need to improve their weapons. Adams and Tonyan are good pieces, but St. Brown, Lazard, and Valdez-Scantling can't be the secondary options at wide receiver. Adding an electric slot receiver in Atwell makes sense given the profile of the rest of the receivers on the roster.
    
30. Buffalo Bills - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington. The Bills have a very complete roster, but they could definitely improve their pass rush. Getting to the quarterback, namely Patrick Mahomes, will be the Bills best chance of getting over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Tryon is a nice scheme fit, and should be able to see the field instantly, something a contender like Buffalo will be looking for here. I was tempted to mock a running back here, as there's great talent left on the board, but I think the Bills are more likely to ride with their 3rd round picks from 2019 and 2020, Singletary and Moss.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington. The Buccaneers have a loaded offense, so the focus should be on the defense, specifically the defensive line. With Gholston having only one more year on his contract, and Suh set to be a free agent, a high upside 3-tech like Onwuzurike makes a lot of sense here. Not to mention, a team that is good enough to make the super bowl can afford to draft BPA, and Onwuzurike is among the best players still on the board here.
    
32. Kansas City Chiefs - OL Alex Leatherwood, Alabama. Kansas City needs to start getting younger on the offensive line. Both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are under contract for 2021, but after that they're free agents. Leatherwood has shown the versatility to slide in anywhere on the line, and could be a day one starter for the Chiefs wherever they need him. This pick could also be used on another weapon or a defensive player, but the value here is too good for Leatherwood.
    

Round 2

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Dayvion Nixon, Iowa. One of the hallmarks of Urban Meyer's Florida and Ohio State teams were deep, talented defensive lines. The Jaguars have a few nice pieces in Josh Allen and Doug Costin, but overall the unit needs to improve. Nixon is one of only a few interior defensive line prospects who offers high upside impact, and getting him here at the start of the second round is good value.
   
2. New York Jets - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern. The Jets have problems with their cornerbacks. Their best cornerback is set to be a free agent, but even if he returns he's only a slot corner. Bryce Hall has shown a lot of promise, but there's not much on the roster behind him. Newsome is a smart, instinctive corner who will fit into Saleh's scheme nicely, and should be ready to compete for a starting role early.
   
3. Atlanta Falcons - RB Najee Harris, Alabama. While it may be unlikely that there are no running backs in the first round (hasn't happened since 2014), I think this draft is so talented that it could happen. As I said earlier, I think the Arthur Smith will try to make win now moves and having a power running game is an important part of Arthur Smith's offensive philosophy. Najee Harris is the top running back on the board and the top prospect left on the board, so everything from fit to value is excellent here for Atlanta.
   
4. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson. Another running back off the board, this time it's the electric back from Clemson. Having already added Toney, now the Miami offense gets arguably the top receiving back in the class. This move makes the offense one of the fastest in the league, and the combination of Etienne and Gaskin gives the Dolphins one of the best young running back rooms in the league.
   
5. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Eric Stokes, Georgia. I nearly went with a CB in round 1 for the Eagles, but it was too hard to pass up on a receiver. The Eagles have a nice CB1 in Slay, but he's getting older and the rest of the CB group needs to be upgraded. Stokes has the ideal size, speed, and length that teams are looking for on the outside and has the experience to challenge for a starting spot early.
   
6. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh. The Bengals already added a top offensive lineman for Burrow, but they have to address the defense early on. Even if the Bengals re-sign Lawson, they need to have more talent on the defensive line to get pressure on opposing QBs. Jones is a good scheme fit and his versatility makes him an attractive option here in the 2nd round.
   
7. Carolina Panthers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri. The Panthers add another impact playmaker for Phil Snow's defense, a guy who could fill the void that they were unable to fill after Keuchly's retirement. There are several options here, but Bolton at 39 is incredible value and the Panthers jump all over a guy with first round upside.
   
8. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - C Landon Dickerson, Alabama. Ted Karras is set to be a free agent, but Miami can upgrade the center position here and get the best prospect at the position in the draft. Dickerson has positional versatility and is well respected for his leadership so this is a great value and culture pick for Miami.
   
9. Detroit Lions - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF. Robinson has the ideal size and length that NFL teams look for, and he's got a lot of experience both inside and outside. The production from the Lions CB room was abysmal in 2020, so more talent needs to be added, even if Jeff Okudah makes the expected year two leap.
   
10. New York Giants - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC. Dave Gettleman is a meat and potatoes guy, and he got his high upside defensive lineman in the first round. But he's going to have to start giving Daniel Jones weapons if they really believe he's the future. Obviously getting Saquon Barkley back will help, but the wide receiver room is aging, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is an outside receiver with WR1 potential who can inject youth and talent into that position group for the Giants.
    
11. New York Jets (from San Francisco) - OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State. The fact that the Jets have a weak offensive line is no secret. Mekhi Becton was a home run draft pick at left tackle last season, but the Jets need to continue adding offensive line talent to avoid their next franchise QB getting killed. Despite another All-American season, Davis' 2020 tape is not as good as his 2019 tape, so he falls to the mid-2nd here. While there are some concerns, he's the best interior offensive line prospect left on the board and he does have upside.
    
12. Dallas Cowboys - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama. The Cowboys defense needs to improve, especially in the run game. Neville Gallimore showed promise, but adding Barmore gives the defensive line a lot more depth and talent. Barmore has the experience to step in right away and produce, something that will be important for the Cowboys who should be looking to win a down NFC East with a healthy Prescott.
    
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota) - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State. Friermuth is an excellent pass catching TE, but he's also one of the better blocking tight ends in this class. This versatility addresses two needs for Jaguars on offense. There's a lot of upside in the Jaguars WR room, so adding a playmaker at TE makes sense, especially because their top tight ends are getting older.
    
14. New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU. The Patriots need to address the wide receiver position, and after passing on a WR in the first round they land a falling Marshall with the 46th pick, so the Patriots end up with a great value in the 2nd round.
    
15. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State. The Chargers line was so bad, and the value at 47 is so good, that I'm going to mock the Chargers double dipping at offensive line with their first two picks. Sam Tevi's contract is up, and he was not good enough to re-sign. The Chargers have to upgrade this spot, and getting a guy like Jenkins here is an easy decision.
    
16. Las Vegas Raiders - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC. The Raiders need to upgrade the defensive line, especially on the interior where Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins were not high impact players. Tuipulotu has great strength and technique, and has three years of starting experience so he should be ready to start right away for the Raiders.
    
17. Arizona Cardinals - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State. Arguably the biggest need for Arizona is cornerback, but with the way the board fell in the first the value was better for other positions of need. Here in the 2nd, they get one of the stickiest corners in the draft. He's a bit undersized, but he's great in man coverage and will be a good scheme fit for Vance Joseph's defense.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma. The Dolphins pick for the fifth time in this mock already, and have addressed a lot of needs so far. One area where they could get better is pass rush depth. While Perkins doesn't jump out as an ideal fit in Flores' defensive scheme, he's got the size, strength, and athleticism should allow him to transition to a standup edge rusher, or rotate in on pass rush situations with his hand on the dirt. He's got all the tools to create pressure in the NFL, and would give Flores a weapon that would allow him to get creative with his defensive play calls.
    
19. Washington Football Team - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas. Washington has an aging line, so getting some youth in the building would be a good strategy. Cornelius Lucas played well enough to have a chance to win the starting LT job in 2021, but he'll be 30 and in a contract year and Morgan Moses will have two years left on his contract. Financially it would make sense to get a long term solution at tackle early in the draft. Cosmi's strengths are a good fit for Scott Turner's blocking schemes.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia. Using this additional pick acquired from Chicago, the Giants address three of their biggest needs in the first two rounds by taking Campbell to go with Rousseau and St. Brown. There are definitely issues on Campbell's tape, but his assignment's in Graham's defense should minimize those weaknesses while maximizing his strength in man coverage. Campbell has elite size, length, and athleticism, so he has tremendous upside.
    
21. Tennessee Titans - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue. The Titans have a very good offense, but are likely going to move on from Corey Davis after the emergence of A.J. Brown. Adding arguably the most electric playmaker in the draft, Rondale Moore, would help keep the Titans offense among the most potent in the NFL.
    
22. New York Jets (from Indianapolis) - RB Javonte Williams, UNC. The Jets need to add some weapons, and with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims on the roster, and better free agent options such as Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay potentially hitting the market, the Jets can add the best weapon on the board, Javonte Williams. He's excellent in the passing game and should fit nicely with the new running scheme.
    
23. Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. With one of the top WR prospects still on the board, and a number of teams ahead of them who could look for a WR, the Chiefs pull the trigger and move up. The Steelers, who have a lot of players headed to free agency, are happy to move down and get more draft picks to try to rebuild the roster with cheaper contracts. Bateman is a good route runner with excellent high point skills, so he's a perfect fit in the offense to replace Watkins.
    
24. Seattle Seahawks - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State. The Seahawks need to make a move on the offensive line at some point, and Radunz is a good prospect here. Cedric Ogbuehi is a free agent, but they could upgrade at RT anyway, and Duane Brown is 35 and only has one year left on his contract. The Seahawks could possibly look at a pass rusher or cornerback here, but the best value on the board is at tackle.
    
25. Los Angeles Rams - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State. There are rumblings that some teams view Browning as a potential first round talent. The athleticism is off the charts, and he's got the speed, explosiveness, length, and motor that NFL teams covet. The upside is undeniable and he's lauded for his character and leadership. Combine that with his experience and versatility, and he's the kind of guy who can come in right away and upgrade the Rams inside linebacker spot, one of the few positions that needs a major upgrade for a team that's going all in to win a Super Bowl.
    
26. Baltimore Ravens - WR Nico Collins, Michigan. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, and Nico Collins has elite size and vertical ball skills, something the Ravens are missing at wide receiver. A lot of the best remaining day 2 caliber receivers are better suited for a slot role, so the Ravens pull the trigger on one of the best outside guys left on the board.
    
27. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB. The Browns desperately need to get some pass rushing help opposite of Myles Garrett. There are some red flags with Smith, but the size and athleticism of Smith make him too good to pass up here. With Collins and Smith, the Browns defense gets a lot bigger, faster, and more talented.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina. All of the Saints moves are going to be made with the salary cap in mind. One of the obvious cost saving moves is to cut Kwon Alexander. The Saints would save more than $13 million without taking on any dead money. Surratt is an excellent player who provides the Saints good value here.
    
29. Buffalo Bills - DT Jay Tufele, USC. The Bills will want to add a cornerback at some point, but with the way the board has fallen Tufele is too good of a value here to pass up on. The Bills need to get better interior defensive line play, and Tufele fits nicely into Frazier's defensive scheme, so this is a good fit as well.
    
30. Green Bay Packers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse. The Packers could address a number of positions here, but Kevin King played poorly and is set to become a free agent anyway. Melifonwu has elite size, and has been climbing draft boards. He may be a bit of a project, but we're getting into the range where there are very few instant impact guys left on the board.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma. With Donovan Smith, Ryan Jensen, and Aaron Stinnie's contracts all set to expire either this year or next year, adding some offensive line help makes sense. Jensen is the weakest of the group, and will likely walk in 2021 if the Buccaneers can acquire a top prospect through the draft. Regardless, the Buccaneers are going to have to add more depth to the center group so the talented Humphrey fills a need.
    
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina. James Conner is set to be a free agent, and it makes financial sense for the Steelers to move on from him. Carter is an excellent value at the bottom of the second round, and he's excellent in the passing game, so he'll be a great fit for the Steelers. Running backs also have the ability to make an impact right away, which is crucial for a team looking to make one last run with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
    

Third Round

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame.
   
2. New York Jets - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss.
   
3. Houston Texans - S Jevon Holland, Oregon.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE, Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forrest.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami (FL).
   
7. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - S Richie Grant, UCF.
   
8. Detroit Lions - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan.
   
9. Carolina Panthers - QB Kyle Trask, Florida.
   
10. Washington Football Team (from San Francisco) - CB Elijah Molden, Washington.
    
11. Dallas Cowboys - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State.
    
12. New York Giants - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati.
    

XX. New England Patriots - Forfeited

1. Los Angeles Chargers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State.
   
2. Minnesota Vikings - OG Ben Cleveland, Georgia.
   
3. Arizona Cardinals - C Josh Myers, Ohio State.
   
4. Las Vegas Raiders - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU.
   
5. Miami Dolphins - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State.
   
6. Washington Football Team - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State.
   
7. Chicago Bears - OT Walker Little, Stanford.
   
8. Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State.
   
9. Tennessee Titans - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State.
   
10. New York Jets (from Seattle) - LB Charles Snowden, Virginia.
    
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Shi Smith, South Carolina.
    
12. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
    
13. Cleveland Browns - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore) - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson.
    
15. Cleveland Browns (from New Orleans) - WR Seth Williams, Auburn.
    
16. Green Bay Packers - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston.
    
17. Buffalo Bills - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford.
    
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt.
    
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL).
    

Compensatory Picks

1. New England Patriots - QB Davis Mills, Stanford.
   
2. Los Angeles Chargers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College.
   
3. New Orleans Saints - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State.
   
4. Dallas Cowboys - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse.
   
5. Tennessee Titans - OT Brady Christensen, BYU.
   
6. Los Angeles Rams - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina.
   
7. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke.
   
8. Los Angeles Rams - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa.
   
9. Baltimore Ravens - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU.
   
10. New Orleans Saints - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU.
    

Trades:
Indianapolis Colts receive: QB Sam Darnold New York Jets receive: Indianapolis 2021 2nd, 5th
This trade value is based on internet rumors and a similar trade in 1987, where the San Francisco 49ers sent a 2nd and 4th round pick to Tampa Bay for 2nd year starter Steve Young. Steve Young was 3-16, with 11 TDs, 21 INTs, a 53.3 comp% and a 63.1 QB rating in two seasons with Tampa Bay but his upside netted a nice return. I think for several reasons, such as the fact that neither Douglas nor Saleh drafted Darnold and the potential to reset the cap window by drafting a 1st round QB, the Jets will trade Darnold. The Colts have a good offensive line and much better weapons than the Jets, so Indianapolis could be a good destination for Darnold after they missed out on Stafford.
***
Denver receives: Houston 2021 1st (3) via Miami Miami receives: Denver 2021 1st (9), 2nd (40), 3rd (71), 2022 1st, 2nd, 2023 2nd
***
Chicago receives: New York Giants 2021 1st (11) New York Giants receive: Chicago 1st (20), 2nd (52), 2022 1st
***
San Francisco receives: Seattle 2021 1st (23) via New York Jets New York Jets receive: San Francisco 2021 2nd (43), 4th, 2022 2nd
***
Kansas City receives: Pittsburgh 2021 2nd (55) Pittsburgh receives: Kansas City 2021 2nd (64), 3rd (95) ***
QB Notes: New England signs Ryan Fitzpatrick Indianapolis trades for Sam Darnold from New York Jets New Orleans re-signs Jameis Winston Washington re-signs Kyle Allen

I'm looking to pay YOU the odds listed below if YOUR chosen team wins it all! Bets are open until the beginning of the first playoff game at 12pm Central on Saturday, January 9.
I STILL MAY (AT MY DISCRETION) ACCEPT LATE BETS, PARTICULARLY IF THE TEAM HASN'T BEGUN THEIR GAME, SO FEEL FREE TO ASK!
I will accept total wagers of up to 10 ounces of .999 silver TOTAL PER TEAM. If you do not have any feedback/enough feedback for a wager, I may require you to put down a deposit with me.
Odds (sourced from Vegas Insider:
YOU have the team of your choice below! For example, you get 10 ounces on the Buccaneers to win it all. If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this season, I pay you 100 ounces of .999 silver!
✅ Buffalo Bills +700 - 5 ounces with wkk3211 - 5 ounces with tdb4807 - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND New Orleans Saints +700 - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces OPEN ✅ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000 - 2 ounces with jamcclea - 3 ounces with GorillaX - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with ToiletPlungerOfDoom - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ✅ Baltimore Ravens +1200 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Seattle Seahawks +1300 - 3 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND Pittsburgh Steelers +2200 - 2 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces OPEN ❌ Tennessee Titans +2800 - 2 ounces with grimcow - 2 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ✅ Los Angeles Rams +3000 - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Indianapolis Colts +4000 - 1 ounce with PMmePreciousMetals - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND Cleveland Browns +5000 - 10 ounces OPEN Chicago Bears +8000 - 10 ounces OPEN ❌ Washington Football Team +8000 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with TheDonkeyDominator - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND
I would also like to wager MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 45 ounces of silver and I take the Packers to win it all, or MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 20 ounces of silver and I take the Chiefs to win it all.
Kansas City Chiefs +200 - 10 ounces with ObjectiveAce Green Bay Packers +450 - 10 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac because fuck it why not?
Give me some action, and good luck!!!

GO PACK GO!!!

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs are now over, and there's a lot to really think about. In this mock draft, I have a few trades, including a block buster to help find the successor for a QB headed for Canton, as well as a blockbuster deal in which a team that is currently at dumpster fire status get's their lost draft capita back. Here's the mock draft.
1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Nothing to say here. They didn't call this season 'Tank for Trevor' for nothing, now did they?
2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
TRADE - Dolphins send 3rd overall pick to the New Orleans Saints, in exchange for 28th overall pick in 2020, Saints' 2nd round pick in 2020, Saints' 3rd round pick in 2020, Saints' 1st round pick in 2021, Saints 3rd round pick in 2021, and Saints 4th round pick in 2021, and maybe more...
3 - New Orleans Saints - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The Drew Brees era has ended in New Orleans after a long, and impressive run. At 42 years of age, Brees walks away from the game as 13x pro bowler, a two time OPOTY winner, a super bowl champion (2009), and many other accolades and accomplishments under his belt. With the greatest QB in Saint's history now gone, it's time for New Orleans to fill in the big shoes left by the legend. The Saints are in no position to blow up their roster and tank in the wake of Brees' apparent retirement. They've got a 20+ million dollar WR in Michael Thomas, one of the highest paid RBs in Alvin Kamara, a star-studded OL, a great defense featuring Cameron Jordan, the breakout Trey Hendrickson, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, and Malcolm Jenkins. This team really can't afford to tank for a top QB in 2022 like Sam Howell, or Spencer Rattler. What they can afford, is to give up a lot to receive a lot in Justin Fields. While his 2020 season wasn't anything to ride home about, Justin Fields is still more than likely going to have a great career in the NFL, and frankly what better place for him to go than the Big Easy, which will have a fantastic team around him unlike many other high end QBs in the draft. New Orleans will most certainly be giving up their first round picks for this year, and next year in order to land the coveted college football superstar, and set up their franchise for possibly another 12-15 years.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
QB is at the top of Atlanta's wishlist, but if they are unable to land neither Wilson, nor Fields, then Atlanta could target one of the biggest receiving talents in CFB history, in Devonta Smith to create the best WR core in the entire NFL. Reportedly, Julio Jones has been the center of trade discussions with the Falcons, as they enter a new era after firing coach Dan Quinn. If Julio goes, then Smith, who is wickedly talented at route running, & separation, could provide the Falcon's receiving department with more than enough insurance if Jones departs. If Jones doesn't leave, then you've still got a ridiculous WR trio for at least the next two years, until Calvin Ridley hits free agency.
5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Sewell is a generational talent at OT, and if the former Outland Trophy winner were to fall to the Bengals at #5, then it's a no-brainer to get him to protect Burrow. Sewell is just 20 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and with his youth, he could have a 15+ year career barring any injury.
6 - Philadelphia Eagles - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Jalen Hurts has some promise in Philly, but he needs some targets. Neither Desean Jackson, nor Alshon Jeffrey can stay healthy, and all you have left is Greg Ward, who is becoming a free agent, and Travis Fulgham who fell off hard after a pretty impressive four game stretch earlier this year. It's time for Philadelphia to get a new WR1, and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase has all of the makings to be the next big thing in Philly. Chase's ridiculous 2019 campaign was so good, that he didn't even need to play in 2020 in order to cement his status as a top 10 pick. It's universally agreed that he is a top 10 level prospect, and his rookie year in Philly should be special.
7 - Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The three top receivers for Detroit will become free agents. While the Lions will likely retain at least one of them (probably going to be Golliday), they will need to reload in this department in order to keep their offense up. Jaylen Waddle was on pace for a ridiculous 2020 season, up until he broke his ankle last October, but in the games we did see him, he was arguably just as unguardable as Devonta Smith. While Smitty was the precise tactician in that stacked Bama receiving corps, Waddle was the dynamite playmaker, who was one of the top downfield threats in the country. Waddle will most certainly make Detroit explosive upon arrival.
8 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parson, LB, Penn State
I originally had Carolina taking Isaiah Simmons last season, but they passed on him for Derrick Brown instead. Ever since the departure of Luke Kuechly, the team has been in dire need of a leader at LB, and Penn State's Micah Parsons is the one to do it. Parsons can play the Panthers system, and his quickness, and instincts are incredible for the position.
TRADE - Denver Broncos send 9th overall pick + more to the Houston Texans in exchange for QB Deshaun Watson, + a late draft pick.
9 - Houston Texans - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The second big shocker of the night. In this scenario, Denver wins the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and in return Houston gets its lost draft capita from the O'Brien era. Houston could use this pick to get a lineman like Slater, or a DB like Surtain or Farley, but Kyle Pitts at this point is the best overall player on the board, and he's one of the best TE prospects to come out in a good while. Pitts will likely be the top receiver for Houston, even as a rookie, Deshaun Watson gets an acceptable trade for his sake, and Denver FINALLY gets its QB of the future. This was my favorite move on this mock draft.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Completely unrelated, but I just wanted check in and see if y'all were still them boys...nah I'm just kidding. But in all honesty, the Cowboys need some help in their secondary, since they just lost Byron Jones a year ago, and Chidobe Awuzie, plus a few others enter free agency, leaving just 2nd year man Trevon Diggs by himself. Reunite him with his former college teammate, Patrick Surtain II, the son of Patrick Sr, who was a 3x pro bowler as a DB during his time in the league. Surtain is a smooth operating corner, whose efforts with the Tide in 2020 earned him SEC DPOTY honors.
11 - New York Giants - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I think that the G-Men will get some pass rushing help in free agency, by way of someone like Haason Reddick or Matt Judon. If they do that, which they probably will, then they can go after the stud LB prospect of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who had a huge 2020 season, winning the Butkus award, and helping Notre Dame make it to the College Football Playoff. JOK has some fantastic instincts, and some frightening closing speed to attack the backfield, and make plays. Not to mention, he is small enough to where he can drop back into coverage, but big enough not to get pushed around.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
It's become evident that Jimmy G just isn't the guy to hold the reins for the 49er offense in the coming years. He's pretty average as an NFL QB in general, and he's well below average for a QB that has a nine figure contract, and on top of that, he has played only one full season as the starter with San Fran, missing 13 games in 2018, and 10 games in 2020. While I expect Jimmy G to start next year, I think it's time for San Fran to get the next guy for the job. Mac Jones, a Heisman finalist this past season had just about as perfect of a season you could have for a college QB. Jones has pinpoint accuracy, and terrific decision making. I think that Jones will stew behind Garoppolo, and get coached up in his rookie season, then he will eventually get turned lose, in the 49ers offense.
13 - Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has risen up draft boards from 2nd round status, to early 1st round status without even playing game during 2020. Many scouts highlight his brilliant performance against Ohio State in 2019, in which he stifled current NFL star edge rusher Chase Young in their showdown. Slater is versatile enough to play at OG as well, which is really where the Chargers could use some help at right now.
14 - Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Minnesota's ability to protect Kirk Cousins was not too good in 2020. Cousins was sacked 39 times last season. Christian Darrisaw is one of the best offensive tackles in the class with good size for the position, and a ton of praise from scouts around the country.
15 - New England Patriots - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Patriots could use some help up front for their DL. They allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the entire league across all of last regular season, allowing around 131 yards per game. When you compete in a conference that has runners like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, the entire Ravens backfield, Josh Allen when he feels dangerous, and even Kansas City who isn't really bad at the run themselves, then you need to do what you can to slow that down. Meet Christian Barmore, the massive Alabama defensive lineman who gained a ton of positive attention thanks to his dominant performance against Ohio State in the national championship game. Barmore, in my opinion has ascended to the top of the IDL big board, thanks to his disruptiveness, his shocking quickness, and his ability to rush the passer, as well as a disrupt the running game make him a great get for the New England Patriots at 15th overall.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Now while I did say that Najee Harris was the best RB in this class, I just feel that Travis Etienne fits the Cardinal's system more than Najee. Etienne reminds me a lot of Kenyan Drake, who hits free agency this spring. He's a long built, yet quick runner with a keen ability to catch the football. Etienne could make Arizona's defense a legit threat in the coming years.
17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
When it comes to drafting in the first round, the Raiders do their own thing. They've always been one to reach with their first round selection, showing this with picks like Kolton Miller, Karl Joseph, Damon Arnette, and most infamous as of recent, Clelin Ferrell, who they picked over Josh Allen, which I am still frustrated about to this day. I don't see the Raiders leaving this odd, and borderline comedic trend behind in Oakland, and as a matter of fact, I can see history repeating itself year after year. Jaelan Phillips, who used to play for UCLA, and was a 5 star prospect in high school, finally seemed to hit his stride after dealing with many injuries, and transferring across the country to Miami. Phillips athletic ability, and natural pass rushing tools were on display in the latter half of Miami's 2020 season, and while Phillips currently has a 2nd round grade, I don't see this stopping the Raiders from passing on him over other players projected to go in round 1 (however I think there is a lot more upside to Phillips than past 1st round picks by the Raiders).
18 - Miami Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
I've become extremely impressed with Nagurski Award winner, Zaven Collins, a defender that combines a staggering amount of size (6'4", 260 lbs), and a surprising amount of speed, and mobility in coverage that makes Collins such a difficult player to face. Collins can be an excellent addition to the Dolphins defense.
19 - Washington Football Team - Trey Lance, QB, ND State
Washington is one QB away from being a legitimate contender in the NFC; not a 7-9 division leader, not fringe wild card team, a legit contender. Do I think this happens within a year? No. If Washington ends up with Trey Lance, they must use him right. He needs to be brought up in the shadows of a veteran QB for at least a season, before getting on the field, similar to what Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes. The starter for that KC team with rookie Mahomes was Alex Smith. The potential starter for this team with a rookie Trey Lance: Alex Smith. Of course with the depletion of Smith's career because of that brutal leg injury in 2018, Smith may not be playing for Washington despite an inspiring comeback season, potentially the greatest comeback season ever for any NFL player.
20 - Chicago Bears - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The Outland Trophy winner for Alabama has moved around the entire line like many linemen do under coach Nick Saban. The Bears need some help up front, and Leatherwood is an extremely versatile option who is as good of a run blocker as they come.
21 - Indianapolis Colts - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
T.Y. Hilton, who has really fallen off recently, as well as Zach Pascal, are both free agents for Indy. The only guy they've got is Michael Pittman, who they drafted just last year. While I expect big things from the former USC standout in his sophomore season, this WR group needs a ton of assistance due to it's lack of diversity. Ohio State's Chris Olave was one of Justin Fields' favorite targets across the QB's two year career with the Buckeyes. Olave is sound route runner, with good hands, and solid ability in getting separation.
22 - Tennessee Titans - Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia
My team, the Tennessee Titans is probably the most desperate team for a franchise pass rusher. Seeing this pass rush week in, and week out was painful. They recorded the 3rd least sacks, and opposing QBs averaged a 97.5 passer rating (9th highest), when facing Tennessee. The weak pass rush gave QBs more time to make throws downfield, thus tiring the secondary, and making the defense slower. Azeez Ojulari is one of the better LB prospects in this draft class, showing the ability to play standup, but also along the edge, which is where he did really well at in his last season with the Bulldogs. Check out his games against Tennessee, and Alabama, and you will see how he was able to outclass many offensive linemen in those two games.
TRADE - New York Jets send 23rd overall pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the 26th overall pick, as well as a mid round pick in either 2021 or 2022.
23 - Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
The Browns could be looking for a complementary edge rusher for Myles Garrett with Olivier Vernon departing in free agency. Vernon surged late in 2020, but a very unfortunate achilles injury derailed his hopes to make some more noise in the post season. Kwity Paye, who was projected to go 2nd-3rd round after 2019, exploded thanks to a chaotic performance against Minnesota, in which he had 3 sacks in a row on a 4th qtr drive. While Paye may have small stature, he has enough upside that should make Cleveland want to roll the dice on him.
24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Pittsburgh has struggled to run the football. They were dead last in total rushing yards as a team, with the 5th least total rushing attempts, and the least YPC (3.6). James Conner and Benny Snell just don't seem to have the answers. But my solution is for Pittsburgh to dip into the pool known as RBU, aka Alabama. Najee Harris was the Doak Walker winner for a reason, becoming a wrecking ball bruiser, that just so happens to be able to catch the ball really well, and jump over defenders that are standing straight up. Najee can help make Big Ben, or the next Steeler QB's job easier with his versatile skillset for the position.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars* - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have provided some of the best linemen in the NFL, like Ronnie Stanley, Zack Martin, and Quenton Nelson to name a few. Liam Eichenberg made the first team all ACC, and was a consensus All-American in 2020. He has overall very sound fundamentals, and I actually think he has the potential to be a legitimate lineman in the NFL.
26 - New York Jets* - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
As previously mentioned, the Jets will be selecting Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. With Breshad Perriman entering free agency, the Jets need a receiving facelift in order to provide Wilson with the much needed tools for success. Bateman appears to have the potential to be a WR1, and help give the Jet's atrocious offense something to be excited about.
27 - Baltimore Ravens - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU
The latest product of LSU, Marshall has been regularly playing since last year, getting reps alongside Ja'Marr Chase, and current pro bowl WR Justin Jefferson. The Ravens offense will get jolt of energy from Marshall, who is impressively built for the position, and who has a keen ability to run routes well.
28 - Miami Dolphins* - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
The Dolphins use their second 1st round pick of the draft to help protect Tua. Samuel Cosmi has the positional versatility of a Bama lineman, with the build of the ideal OT. His large stature towers at 6'7", over 300 lbs. He'll add some legit experience points.
29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joseph Ossai, LB, Texas
Thanks to the Buccaneers, I was right about TB (both the team and the player) pulling the upset in NOLA. Regardless, at the end of this season, the Bucs need to fill some much anticipated holes this offseason, and many players are likely gone. If Shaquil Barrett is one of those, then Tampa needs an edge rusher, and they need one pronto.
30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
The Chiefs are about as perfect as you can get on offense, but some help up front won't hurt at all. Vera-Tucker from USC showed that he has the skill to play at IOL, and OT. While he is built for OG.
31 - Buffalo Bills - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
A draft pick like this could be a steal for Buffalo, with Nick Bolton providing several bolts of energy, and momentum into these nights. Bolton is a quick, powerful linebacker, and one of the SEC's finest.
32 - Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
If your name is either Green Bay, Buffalo, or Kansas City then you can really get under the skin of defensive coordinators by taking this guy. Rondale Moore when healthy, is a juggernaut, who is one of the best receivers after the catch. If the Packers decide to finally take a WR in round1, then the earth could shatter.
​
THANK YOU FOR READING, COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK, GOOD NIGHT

32. Houston Texans, 4-12 (previous rank: 30)
With it being official that the Texans cut JJ Watt. the Texans are dead last in the NFL. The Texans, even with JJ Watt, ended 4-12 and third in their division. They were beaten by teams that they shouldn't have lost too, including the Bengals, and some games were hilariously too close for comfort, especially the Jaguars game that ended at 25 - 27.
The Texans are in a terrible position, and if Deshaun Watson is traded. . .then this team could have a 0-16 season.
31. Detroit Lions, 5-11 (previous rank: 31)
The Lions could be contenders for the 2022 and 2024 seasons, earning themselves two extra first round draft picks, but they definitely won't this season. Even with Stafford, a top ten QB, they finished at 5-11, worst in their division. Now they'll be playing with Jared Goff, who is a downgrade. They might get a higher ranking if they draft correctly this season.
30. New York Jets, 2-14 (previous Rank: 31)
The Jets are quite possibly the most interesting offseason team. They have a lot of cap space and draft picks at their disposal and, unlike the Texans and lions, have a lot to work with. If they can get Deshaun Watson, they could be playoff contenders. It actually get's better. According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald - one of the top reporters in the business - the Jet's are Watson's preferred team. If they manage to get him the Jets could be ejected to the top 16.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-15 (previous rank: 32)
NOTE: this ranking assumes that Trevor Lawrence is on the roster. If Lawrence is, then the Jaguars can no longer be ranked as the worst team in the NFL.. Their offense is a little below average, but they do have some weapons. Unfortunately, this team can't rank any higher as their defense is a complete disaster.
28. Philadelphia Eagles, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 29)
The Eagles are most likely trading Carson Wentz, but the front office probably overpriced him. They are demanding two second round draft picks, but they should probably be the ones giving it away. The Eagles finished lower than even my expectations, and I hate the Eagles. (My Father is a Washington fan)
27. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 28)
I joked about the Bengals starting a cardboard cutout of Penei Sewell at left tackle in 2021 because they ruined their chances of landing him with a late win, but the Dolphins could conceivably select Devonta Smith, which would mean Sewell would be the pick at No. 5. That's the good news. The bad news is that Joe Burrow may not be ready for the season opener. Cincinnati is difficult to rank for that reason.
26. North Carolina Panthers, 5-11 (previous rank: 22)
Teddy Bridgewater was not Teddy Bridgewater this season. He threw for countless end zone interceptions just in week 17, and the Panthers, overall, finished third in their division with a record of 5-11, and there was little difference from the 2019 season.
25. Atlanta Falcons, 4-12 (previous rank: 25)
The Falcons say that they plan on retaining Matt Ryan, but with a cap space 31 million dollars over, it seems very unlikely. If Atlanta Selects Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, there will be pressure to start the rookie and trade Matt Ryan. Either way, the Falcons aren't going to be very competitive next season as they'll need to cut some players to get under the cap.
24. New York Giants, 6-10 (previous rank: 24)
The Giants put up a fight this season, nearly making the playoffs by one game. Now they'll be better with Saquon Barkley's return to the line up, who was missing ever since an injury on week 2. Nate Soldier's return should help as well.
23. Dallas Cowboys, 6-10 (previous rank: 26)
Dallas is rumored to be an elite force in 2021 with Dak Prescott as the opener. But what about the offensive and Defensive line? Dallas wasn't even winning games when Prescott was the opener early is 2020.
22. Washington Football Team, 8-8 (previous rank: 22)
Washington made huge steps from the 2019 season, and now Chase Young will have experience. There defense was pretty dominant in 2020 and is expected to be the same, if not better, in 2021. Even though my father might hate me for ranking his team in the bottom half of the league, their offense is struggling. There QB situation is also a question mark, which is never a good sign. Of course, if they draft themselves a Jackpot QB, they could bounce forwards to the top 16, possibly 12.
21. New England Patriots. 7-9 (previous rank: 20)
The Patriots are a very difficult team to rank without knowing their QB situation. If they can land Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan, they will definitely become a playoff contending team again.
20. Minnesota Vikings, 7-9 (previous rank: 21)
The Minnesota Vikings are in an unusual QB situation. Kirk Cousins has shown dominance when playing weaker teams, throwing for 400 yards in week 17 against the Lions. This makes some fans think that Cousins should stay and was worth the terrible contact they signed. Their defense also stinks, and, according to Locked On Today podcast, the "Vikings were too soft this season."
19. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-11 (previous rank: 20)
The Chargers showed some promise with their QB this season, and managed to put up more of a fight then most expected. If Herbert doesn't regress, the Chargers may have a shot at the playoffs this year, however slim.
18. Denver Broncos, 5-11 (previous rank: 18)
The Broncos are another hard team to rank. If they supply themselves with an actual QB like Matt Ryan, the Broncos team will become a serious competitor for the Super Bowl. I had a lot of controversy in my mind over where this team stands, and I still think I ranked them to high.
17. Chicago Bears, 8-8 (previous rank: 19)
This Bears team is a real dilemma. They're defense is good, but their offense is a lot of question marks, especially QB wise. NVP Mitchell Trybulski has not shown the spark he once had. The offensive line was a mess last season, and even though their defense was good, it wasn't enough to get them higher than 8-8.
16. Las Vegas Raiders, 8-8 (previous rank: 17)
You don't even have to watch a Raider's game to know they need to upgrade their defense. Their offense was surprisingly good and even Beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who were 14-2 this season. With a good defense the Raiders are a very serious playoff contender.
15. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8 (previous rank: 16)
Even though I am obviously a Rams fan, I respect my divisional rivals. They improved greatly this season and managed to pull of an upset against the 13-3 Buffalo Bills. They would have been much higher on this list if they hadn't lost 7-18 to a Rams team with a backup QB.
14. Indianapolis Colts, 11-5 (previous rank: 8)
The Colts missed out on Mathew Stafford, so unless the Texans want to trade Deshaun Watson to a divisional rival, the Colts are stuck in the QB position. The Colt's two options as of now are Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz. unfortunately for the Colts, the Falcons are possibly not trading Matt Ryan and the Eagles are asking way to much for Carson Wentz. Things look grim for the Colts, but patience is the best thing the can do right now.
13. Tennessee Titans, 11-5 (previous rank: 7)
The Titans were dominant into the midway point of the season, however they began to slip near the end. This team's ranking will have to depend on how they fare without their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who recently took Atlanta's head coach job.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers, 12-4 (previous rank: 12)
For the first time in my five years of writing Offseason Power Ranking, this is the first time the Steelers ended up behind the Top Ten. Big Ben was regressing later down the season. They lost to teams they shouldn't have, like Washington. And even though the defense was good this season, they were kicked from the playoffs by the Browns. The Steelers did not live up to expectations at all.
11. Seattle Seahawks, 12-4 (previous rank: 11)
The Seahawks had a strange inconsistency throughout the season. Either their offense was great and their defense was trash, or vise versa. The Seahawks have gotten lots of flak for their offensive line negligence, but it's not like they haven't tried to repair it. They traded for Duane Brown, spent a first-round pick on Germain Ifedi and found a gem in the third round last year when they selected Damien Lewis. That said, they probably should've addressed the offensive line further when they wasted a first-round pick on L.J. Collier in 2019.
10. Miami Dolphins, 10-6 (previous rank: 13)
Despite finishing 10-6 this season, the Dolphins are a fierce competitor for the playoffs this season. Unfortunately for me, this team is hard to rank because they are linked with Watson. If they start with Tua Tagovailoa this year they could be major playoff competitors. If they start with Deshaun Watson, they would be Super Bowl Contenders.
9. Cleveland Browns, 11-5 (previous rank: 10)
The Browns have shown unnatural aggressiveness, this season, going all the way to putting a fight up against the 14-2 Chiefs in the Divisional Round. For all five years of writing power rankings, the Browns were either in the low 30s or the high 20s. Now their breaking the top ten. Of course, everything depends on if Baker Mayfield plays like he did in 2019 or 2020. Hopefully for the Brown's it the latter.
8. New Orleans Saints, 12-4 (previous rank: 5)
With Drew Brees most likely retiring, the New Orleans Saints will be playing without the All-Star QB for the first time in 15 years. The only reason they still break the top ten is because they still have a lot of weapons. But, if I could, I would rate them a question mark. They are in cap space hell, and we don't know how well they'll actually play without Brees. For now, however, the Saints remain in the top 10.
7. San Francisco 49ers, 6-10 (previous rank: 14)
It hurts me write this, but the 49ers are main competitors for the playoffs and even the Super Bowl. They injured so many players last year, and if they don't do that this season, they could regain those 2019-2020 vibes. They may not be the best team in the NFC, but if they don't injure players like they did last season, they could be easy favorites.
6. Baltimore Ravens, 11-5 (previous rank: 6)
The Ravens are a strong team, and they'll be even better with Ronnie Stanley returning to play. Their only major flaw is the passing game. They ranked very low in the subject and it cost them a divisional round game. If they manage to improve on that, they could become the team to beat in the NFC North.
5. Buffalo Bills, 13-3 (previous rank: 4)
The Bills, unfortunately, were the worst team in the Championship round. They didn't play like they used to. They'll most likely be back next year, but they'll still have Patrick Mahomes in the way. Will this Bills team end up being like the 90s Utah Jazz team, who were really good but never won because they kept running into Michael Jordan? For the Bill's Mafia that has waited 25 years for this, I hope not.
4. Green Bay Packers, 13-3 (previous rank: 3)
This Packers Team would probably be first on this list and be the team throwing the Lombardi trophy across boats if they had drafted Chase Claypool or Tee Higgins instead of -Shudder!- Jordan Love. This team fortunately has an amazing chance at the Super Bowl, but this time they don't have a first round draft pick. . .they would probably draft another QB anyway,
3. Los Angeles Rams, 10-6 (previous rank: 9)
The Rams made a huge jump on the ranking table after the Stafford-Goff trade, and they could jump even further if they can draft players like Marvin Jones. And every Rams fan prays that they somehow manage to draft JJ Watts. The Rams have a bright future, even though it might be short term
2. Kansas City Chiefs, 14-2 (previous rank: 1)
First off, I didn't put the Chiefs at number 2 just because they lost the Super Bowl, its because I know the effects of losing them. The 2018 Los Angeles Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7 after they lost the Super Bowl, and they didn't lose by 22 points. Fortunately, Patrick Mahomes is still young and none of their players are being traded, so they still have amazing odds for the Super Bowl.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 11-5 (previous rank: 2)
The Buccaneers have the G.O.A.T on their side, and their defense seems to be just getting better and better. The only problem I can see is how long it will last. The Tampa Defense struggled earlier in the season and could detain them from getting an incredible record. That doesn't mean they aren't my favorite team to win it all.
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Thanks for reading! These take a lot of time and effort, so please be supportive!

PREVIOUS BETS STAND AT ODDS AGREED WHEN PLACED. UPDATED ODDS LISTED JUST BENEATH THIS HEADER AND APPLY TO ALL NEW WAGERS. SAME TOTAL LIMITS APPLY (10 OUNCES TOTAL PER TEAM, ALL BETTORS COMBINED, UNLESS I'VE LISTED OTHERWISE UNDER THE NEW ODDS AT TOP!!).

UPDATED ODDS (MONDAY THE 11TH, DIVISIONAL ROUND):
New Orleans Saints +550 - 5 ounces with sweenothe11 FULL! Buffalo Bills +600 - 5 ounces with Addictedtocoins FULL! Baltimore Ravens +800 - 2 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with trent6295 FULL! Tampa Bay Buccaneers +850 - 5 ounces with ftsleepad FULL! Los Angeles Rams +1600 - 3 ounces with gahmby - 4 ounces with Lexicaltesticle - 3 ounces with trent6295 FULL! Cleveland Browns +2500 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 3 ounces with sweenothe11 - 2 ounces with tdb4807 FULL!
BETS MAY, AT MY SOLE DISCRETION, BE ACCEPTED EVEN AFTER ONE OR MORE OF THE GAMES HAVE BEGUN IN THIS ROUND, PARTICULARLY IF THE BET IS ON A GAME THAT HAS NOT YET BEGUN! I WILL CONFIRM WITH YOU THAT YOU STILL WISH TO PLACE THE BET IF THIS IS THE CASE AND THE GAME HAS BEGUN!
I'm looking to pay YOU the odds listed below if YOUR chosen team wins it all! Bets are open until the beginning of the first playoff game at 12pm Central on Saturday, January 9.
I STILL MAY (AT MY DISCRETION) ACCEPT LATE BETS, PARTICULARLY IF THE TEAM HASN'T BEGUN THEIR GAME, SO FEEL FREE TO ASK!
I will accept total wagers of up to 10 ounces of .999 silver TOTAL PER TEAM. If you do not have any feedback/enough feedback for a wager, I may require you to put down a deposit with me.
Odds (sourced from Vegas Insider):
YOU have the team of your choice below! For example, you get 10 ounces on the Buccaneers to win it all. If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this season, I pay you 100 ounces of .999 silver!
✅ Buffalo Bills +700 - 5 ounces with wkk3211 - 5 ounces with tdb4807 - 5 ounces with Addictedtocoins (+600) ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND ❌ New Orleans Saints +700 - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces with tdb4807 (+750) - 2 ounces with ObjectiveAce (+750) - 5 ounces with sweenothe11 (+550) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ✅ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000 - 2 ounces with jamcclea - 3 ounces with GorillaX - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with ToiletPlungerOfDoom - 5 ounces with ftsleepad (+850) ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND ❌ Baltimore Ravens +1200 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 2 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja (+800) - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac (+800) - 3 ounces with trent6295 (+800) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Seattle Seahawks +1300 - 3 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Pittsburgh Steelers +2200 - 2 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+1700) - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Tennessee Titans +2800 - 2 ounces with grimcow - 2 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Los Angeles Rams +3000 - 3 ounces with gahmby (+1600) - 4 ounces with Lexicaltesticle (+1600) - 3 ounces with trent6295 (+1600) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Indianapolis Colts +4000 - 1 ounce with PMmePreciousMetals - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Cleveland Browns +5000 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+5500) - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins (+2500) - 3 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja (+2500) - 3 ounces with sweenothe11 (+2500) - 2 ounces with tdb4807 (+2500) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Chicago Bears +8000 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Washington Football Team +8000 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with TheDonkeyDominator - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND
I would also like to wager MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 45 ounces of silver and I take the Packers to win it all, or MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 20 ounces of silver and I take the Chiefs to win it all.
✅ Kansas City Chiefs +200 - 10 ounces with ObjectiveAce ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND ✅ Green Bay Packers +450 - 10 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac because fuck it why not? ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND
Give me some action, and good luck!!!

GO PACK GO!!!

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https://preview.redd.it/qka6fzednt561.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a5f0ec3f783b413ce75d5ecce3361f6b05eff91
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As crazy as this sounds, we are only three weeks away from the NFL playoffs and the picture is starting to manifest itself. In this breakdown I’m ranking all 32 teams and I use different tiers to describe how I feel about them. While there are plenty of statistics to support the cases I want to make for them, I tried to limit those to a smaller degree, because at this point of the season it’s all about what I have learned from studying them every week and what my eyes tell me.
Here we go:

Top-tier:

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These are the four truly complete teams. You can find concerns if you nit-pick, but I don’t think there is an obvious weakness for any of them at this stage. The top three arguably have the three best quarterbacks in the NFL, while the other two have elite offensive play-callers and top five defenses. Football is all about matchups, so they could have a bad draw, but in general I think they are all winning at least one playoff game and have a legitimate shot to go the distance.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
You can find those little flaws if you are looking for them, but to me the Chiefs are still clearly the number one team in the league. They can lack some urgency at times and we have seen them let teams hang around for multiple weeks now, with no multiple-score wins since their week ten bye. However, even when they are down in games, you know at some point they will turn it on and make a run, like scoring 30 straight in 18 minutes last week at Miami. And if you give Patrick Mahomes the ball at the end of the game, whether you’re up or down, they will finish the job. Kansas City still number one in point differential for the season (+9.4) and until last week they were tied with Pittsburgh for number one in turnover margin (now +8). I think there’s about two teams in each conference that could make for exciting matchups against them, but I don’t think anybody is beating the Chiefs on a neutral field – and the playoffs will probably go through Arrowhead.
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2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Aaron Rodgers is my choice MVP right now. He has been absolutely phenomenal, with only one blemish to his record and that was the only time the Packers really didn’t show up, back in week six at Tampa Bay. The chemistry between Rodgers and Davante Adams is unbelievable, but that running back duo is phenomenal as well and the offensive line has been one of the most consistent ones in all of football. Plus, Matt LaFleur has turned himself into one of the top offensive play-callers in the game. Defensively, my one big issue was their interior front, which has been vulnerable to the run game, and that’s the one area you can still question, but since Dalvin Cook had that monster game against them, they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing on average over these past six weeks. You can argue that the Saints are a little more complete in terms of NFC opponents, but the difference in quarterback play is substantial and they are becoming a better all-around squad.
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3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Where are the people who told me Josh Allen will absolutely not be an MVP candidate at the end of the season? After Mahomes and Rodgers there is no quarterback who you can tell me has clearly been better than him. While the run game hasn’t been very consistent, I like the combination of Moss & Singletary, while Allen is a major factor in that area as well, and Brian Daboll understands when he is in matchups where he can utilize it. Their defense has really come along as well, after they had some issues early on – especially defending the run, holding opponents to just 18.7 points since their bye three weeks ago – and I believe that has something to do with Sean McDermott getting more involved in the defensive game-planning. They do a tremendous job of taking away staples of the opposing team’s passing game and over this three-game stretch since their bye they have given up just under 70 yards rushing on average.
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4. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
This is actually the one team with a real question mark potentially, because we just don’t know for sure where Drew Brees is in his recovery and he hasn’t been great this season either way. However, assuming he is fine for their playoff run and they can win at least one more game to hold on to the division title, they are a very complete team that wins at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Sean Peyton is as good an offensive game-designer and team motivator as we have in the league and while that loss in Philadelphia last Sunday is obviously on our minds, let’s not forget that they had won nine straight before that. Now, you can argue that they have faced some clearly inferior teams, but they have won close and they have blown teams out. Since their week six bye, this past Sunday was their first time of not reaching 100 rushing yards (over 150 on average), while their defense has been phenomenal. What it really comes down to is that until their trip to Philly, their quarterbacks had not been sacked more than the opposing team’s since their early bye and they were recording 2.5 more sacks on a weekly basis. However, they are still the most penalized team in the league (843 yards)
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Contenders:

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These are all very good teams that have shown the ability to beat anybody in this tier or the one above it, but I don’t quite put them on that same elite level as the top four, because there is one clear weakness with them. Whether it may be a specific part like the pass-rush or skill-position talent, not having a schematic advantage in most weeks (at least on one side of the ball) or even team chemistry.
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5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
The only way you can make this team look bad is if you can mostly take away the run game, the boots and screens that mask Jared Goff, because we have seen that if you force him to be a drop-back passer and read the field, there are some issues. But just go back two weeks ago, when they played in Arizona – Sean McVay finds ways to move the pocket and he has become more diverse this season with his run schemes, rather than being a zone-only run team. The Rams have two of the most underrated receivers in the league, I like how they have used much more 12 personnel this season and making rookie Cam Akers their featured back is already paying big dividends. The star of the show however has been the defense, holding opponents to a league-low 4.6 yards per play and just 31 plays of 20+ yards. They have the best defensive lineman and the top corner in all of football, but it really has been the lesser-known commodities that have made the difference for them. Darious Williams as a phenomenal across Jalen Ramsey, rookie Jordan Fuller is a ball magnet and former first-round pick Leonard Floyd is turning his career around in L.A.
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6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
The Russell Wilson MVP run has completely disappeared when you look at the Vegas odds, but he is still having an excellent season, as he is on pace to complete 70 percent of his passes for the first time in his career and he has already reached a personal best 36 passing TDs. We have seen the turnovers ramp up and Seattle’s four losses have come in the games he has given it away multiple times, because they didn’t have much room for error because of their defense. The reason I have them this high is because they have seen more balance from them offensively, with an average of 124.6 rushing yards since their week six bye, and their defense has really made some strides. I know the two New York teams are in there, but since they got lit up by Josh Allen back in week nine, they have held opponents to just 16.2 points, without those major mess-ups and coming together as a unit. They are top ten in sacks (36) and make their opponents one-dimensional, holding them to just 3.9 yards per carry.
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7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
When I was referencing team chemistry in the intro for this tier, this is the squad that primarily made me mention it. Tampa Bay beat the Panthers and Raiders by over 20 points since then, but most of that came in the fourth quarter until which those games had been very pretty competitive, so their last truly complete performance came against the Packers all the way back in week six. They have questions about their offensive identity (no matter how much Bruce Arians is puffing his chest out after last week’s win), they have gone away from the run game in their losses and when they go really shotgun-heavy, their O-line has not looked the same in those one-on-ones. Their defense has shown moments of dominance, with a very dangerous pass-rush (second-highest pressure percentage at 27.8%) and two linebackers that can really fly around, but their corners have gotten torched at times and the really good offensive play-callers have been able to take advantage of some of the tendencies they have shown.
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8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
So many people said the Ravens were dead three weeks ago – they had the biggest COVID outbreak in the league, Lamar Jackson was getting criticized by the media and the defense was getting banged up. Now all of a sudden they are on track for a Wildcard spot, if they can just win out with a pretty soft schedule ahead and all they need is for one of the three other contenders in the AFC to lose at least one game. Things have not come as easy for Lamar as they did in his MVP season, but the real issue for this time is a lack of play-making outside the numbers and not enough creativity in the drop-back pass game altogether. They have gotten back to punching people in the mouth with the run game and I’m glad to see them make rookie J.K. Dobbins their top option out of the backfield. We have seen defenses give them trouble when they crowd the middle of the field, but if they can evolve a little bit in their perimeter passing attack and open up the field, they can create a lot of problems. Baltimore’s defense just gave up 42 points, but when that group is healthy, they have the potential to be a top-five unit, with an elite secondary.
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9, Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)
This is obviously a lot lower than where they would have been two weeks ago, when they were still the only undefeated team in the league and other than Kansas City, you probably couldn’t have put anybody else above them. However, they have now lost back-to-back games – in fairness those two teams will likely go to the playoffs – and their offense has been highly concerning. Over the second half of their season, they have reached 100 rushing yards just once and average just 54.3 yards on the ground over that stretch, plus through the air everybody is all over the quick game and the Steelers rarely attack beyond the sticks, other than trying to draw some pass interference calls on shots outside the numbers. With that being said, while drops have been a major issue recently, they have a dynamic receiving corp and while they have lost a couple of pieces to injury, their defense is still number one in points allowed, sacks (45) and pressure percentage (33.5%) , takeaways (25) and therefore also turnover differential (+11).
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10. Cleveland Browns (9-4)
If the Browns at least win two of their final three games – a two-week trip to face the New York teams and hosting the Steelers, who could have nothing to play for in the season finale – they are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs (as long as BAL, MIA, TEN & IND don’t all win out). I know they actually have a point differential of -20 on the season, but those 63 combined points they lost by in blowout fashion against the Ravens and Steelers early on are a major factor in that and if you look at their three matchups before this, they were actually winning big until opposing teams somehow added points late. Cleveland has the number three rushing offense (156.2 yards per game) with the premiere RB duo in the league, but they are still tied for fifth-most plays of 20+ yards (55) and Baker Mayfield arguably just played the two best games of his pro career these last couple of weeks. They can go 22 personnel and pound you with the run, but then also take play-action shots off it and then also create issues from empty sets. And until they had their number one corner Denzel Ward in the lineup, they were at least average in every meaningful statistical category, with a phenomenal D-line.
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11. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
I brought this up in my week 14 recap – Derrick Henry has a chance to break the single-season rushing record, if he can average 191 yards on the ground over these last three games, which all feature bottom-five run defenses arguably (DET, GB & HOU). Of course Henry is the heartbeat of the Tennessee offense, but also big plays, as only five teams have recorded more plays of 20+ yards (53), despite also only five teams having thrown the ball less. No team is better at getting chunks off play-action, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis routinely catching deep crossers and in-breaking routes behind the linebackers. And Ryan Tannehill is having an excellent season in general, while we have seen him execute at a really high level with little time on the clock and make things happen when they needed to put the ball in his hands. The Titans are tied with Green Bay for the fewest turnovers committed in the league at nine – and a third of those came against Cleveland, where they got steamrolled in the first half before ultimately cutting the lead to one touchdown. The defense is concerning part, with a league-low 14 sacks on the season and the highest third-down percentage allowed (52.2%), while they have had some bad performances from their special teams.
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12. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
The Colts surprisingly are just outside the top ten in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), but by far their worst performance came without their best defensive player DeForest Buckner against the Titans a couple of weeks ago, and they are outstanding in second halves, surrendering just 7.8 points on average. Their front-seven if phenomenal and they have guys in the secondary who can take away the ball, while having missed just 62 tackles all season long (second-fewest) and scored four touchdowns themselves (most). What I really like about the Colts is how much they improved in the run game, where they have gone from a surprisingly bad start to now have rookie Jonathan Taylor really becoming their workhorse, averaging 110 yards and six yards per carry over these last three games. And with Philip Rivers taking better care of the ball and delivering big throws on third downs, they have now had their best three-game scoring run (34.7) and they are tied for second in turnover differential on the season at +10. And only two teams have a better difference between their starting drives and the ones of their opponents at +5.
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Fringe playoff teams:

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None of these teams have a playoff spot secured and if my calculations are correct, only two of them control their own destiny, in terms of making the cut if they win out, regardless of what else happens around the league. And only two of them will ultimately make it most likely. None of these squads blow you away. They all have bad losses on their resume and there are multiple areas that has disappointed at times.
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13. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
The Dolphins came a little short from pulling off a comeback against the Chiefs this past Sunday after KC had that big run, and that most likely takes them out of the race for the AFC East, but they still control their own playoff destiny as far as I can tell. The Miami defense has been incredible. They are either first or second in points allowed (18.8), takeaways (25) and third-down percentage (33.1). Their coaching staff does an excellent job of teaching and game-planning for specific matchups. Offensively, injuries have been a story for them pretty much all season long, while the switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has certainly been in character with the horizontal passing attack from OC Chan Gailey. The big issue for them is the lack of explosive plays – only the Bengals (32) have less than their 34 plays of 20+ yards. And while they do run the ball at an middle-of-the-pack rate, they are averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. That’s why they can’t really control the pace of games but also not be as dynamic scoring to keep up with the high-flying offenses. Still, before their loss to Kansas City on Sunday, they had won seven of their last eight and they are sixth in point differential with +6.5
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14. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
This team is a little tough to figure out where to put. Everybody loved them when they were 6-3, but then then were a Hail Mary against Buffalo away from losing five straight and then they completely dominate the Giants, who were getting hyped up a week ago. In theory, they have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, they have shown the ability to run the ball effectively, I like some of the things Vance Joseph does schematically on defense and some of their young players on that side of that ball have really come in their own. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense leaves me wanting to see more, with opposing teams being able to just man up and anticipate passing concepts, while their 13th-ranked scoring defense only looks as good on paper as they do because they have feasted in their matchup versus three NFC East teams and the Jets (10.5 PPG in those matchups). They control their own destiny and could be lucky if their one true remaining test comes against the Rams in week 17, when those guys have nothing to play for potentially, but if they make it, I’m worried about what happens when the really well-coached NFC teams can solely focus on them.
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15. Washington Football Team (6-7)
Over their current four-game winning streak (second-longest active one to Kansas City), Washington leads all teams in point differential at +12.5 and the only teams that are actually close are the Saints and Seahawks, who had blowout wins over the QB-less Broncos and winless Jets respectively during that stretch. They have to hope that rookie RB Antonio Gibson can return without much of an issue from his turf toe, because the offense is really all about him and their one stud receiver Terry McLaurin. They are certainly limited in the pass game, with by far their best option at quarterback being somebody who couldn’t even walk properly at the start of the calendar year, who doesn’t really create out of structure anyway. At the same time, they just scored 23 points and won a game without an offensive touchdown this past Sunday. Their defensive line is absolutely loaded with first-round talent and they have no fear of attacking patterns and trying to take away easy yardage against the pass. That’s why they are tied for third-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0) and they are sixth in points allowed despite their bad start to the season (21.2).
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16. New England Patriots (6-7)
These Patriots are holding on for dear life here. They are not very talented. Cam Newton has not looked the same since missing time with COVID early on in the season, with more than 180 passing yards just three times on the year, none of their receivers would be more than a WR3 on teams with average pass-catching groups and if we can agree that Miami wasn’t who they are now in the season-opener, the only good defense they have score over 20 points against all season was the Ravens – and they were really banged up coming into that matchup. They still have one of the top secondaries in the league and are incredibly well-coached of course on that side of the ball, but they lack beef on the defensive interior, which has them as a bottom-ten run defense, and they have suffered blowout losses to elite offensive play-callers like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. They are once again the least penalized team in the league (just 442 yards against) and they destroyed the Chargers 45-0 just two weeks ago, in large part because their special teams were so amazing and how much better their coaching was, but that’s not enough against great teams.
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17. Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
This might be surprising to some people, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to score on at least half of their offensive drives. We have seen them beat opposing teams up with the run game, with a couple of 200-yard performances already this season, but they have almost gone 2-0 in shootouts against the Chiefs and Derek Carr has had his best season since making a run at the MVP award several years ago. Unfortunately, their defense has really only had a couple of good games. They are one of only three units to allow 30 points per game – and the other two are the Cowboys and Jets. And they also allow opponents to convert exactly half of their third downs (tied for third-highest). In college football-fashion, they have a few quality wins on their resume over the Saints, Chiefs and Browns – but they have fallen off dramatically recently. Over the last three weeks they have now lost by 37 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts and they needed a miracle touchdown (and a really bad defensive call) to beat the winless Jets.
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18. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
When you look at the numbers from Minnesota’s game against the Bucs, it almost doesn’t make sense that they lost by 12 points – ten first downs more and 18 minutes more time of possession. Their kicker Dan Bailey had a horrible showing, but special teams have been an issue all season long – only making a league-low two third of their FG attempts, untimely muffs and returns suffered. On paper the offense should be one of the best in the league, with a superstar running back, an outstanding receiver duo and Kirk Cousins capable of making big throws with the right pieces around him. Yet, if you take away the season-opener against Green Bay when most of it came in garbage time, they have only scored more than 30 points twice this season and their 22 giveaways are tied for fifth in the league. The defense has shown some improvement from their horrible 1-5 start, but they have nobody on the roster with more than 3.5 sacks at this point and their young corners have been taken advantage of routinely. I could see them win out potentially, but they still need some help to sneak into the playoffs.
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Striving to reach .500:

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While I believe about half of these teams have the potential to put together complete games and there is potential to good all-around, none of them have been able to actually do it for an extended stretch. For me one side of the ball has clearly held them back for most of the season and only one of them actually still has a chance to earn a winning record, while another one at best could finish a half game below .500 – but still somehow has an outside shot of winning their division.
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19. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
One of the biggest disappointments of this 2020 season has been the 49ers. And it’s not really about their players messing up or anything like that, they have just been unlucky. No other team has put more players on injured reserve than San Francisco and it happened to key pieces. As brilliant as Kyle Shanahan I believe is and as well as that defense has played for the most part, somebody has to deliver the ball in the passing game and at some points those injuries will catch up to you. Nick Mullens has been rough to watch ever since taking over as the starter. They have gone 1-4 over that stretch and they have turned the ball over more than three times per game. Now only the Broncos have turned the ball over more than the Niners (25) on the season. And defensively I know elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen carved them up, but when you look at the rest of the schedule, it was their offensive turnovers and their special teams in one matchup in particular that has set put their own guys in a bad position.
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20. New York Giants (5-8)
Just a week ago it felt like EVERYBODY was jumping on the Giants bandwagon and it’s like everybody has gotten off even quicker. Daniel Jones could not move because of his hamstrings and the Cardinals were able to completely out for the run, while recording eight total sacks once they got Big Blue in obvious passing situations and turnovers setting Arizona up in the red-zone twice. New York still has a top-ten defense in my opinion, where they throw a lot of different looks at opponents and only the Rams have surrendered less plays of 20+ yards (39). Their offense is certainly more troubling to me, but unless Jalen Hurts looks like he did in his first career start going forward, Daniel Jones is the best quarterback in that division and until this past Sunday, the G-Men had gone for over 100 rushing yards in eight games and averaged 148.9 yards over that stretch. They are still the second-worst scoring offense in the league (18.3 points per game), but those numbers are heavily influenced by their 0-5 start. Joe Judge and his coaching staff have these guy on the right track and they have the season-sweep over Washington. So if they can win one more game than the Football Team over these final three weeks, they host a playoff game – but they have a tough finish ahead.
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21. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)
I think I would have originally had the Eagles five or six spots lower and in the tier below this one had I put out these rankings a week ago. So I’m glad I didn’t and waited to see what Jalen Hurts looked like in his first career start – and he was awesome. I didn’t understand the Saints’ defensive gameplan, but that team certainly had some juice with the switch under center, whether it’s the defense playing with their hair on fire or people like Alshon Jeffery even making big catches. Once again Philly has suffered a ton of injuries, especially on the O-line, but Hurts’ mobility can help out with that, if Miles Sanders has some space, he can be a dynamic player and all of a sudden Doug Pederson actually had a gameplan. Outside of their trip to Green Bay, the Eagles defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, with a hungry pass-rush and the back-seven aggressively coming upfield and punishing guys for touching the ball. At best, Philly can now finish 7-8-1, but as crazy as that sounds, if they win out, while Washington and the Giants at least lose one other game, the Eagles are your division champs. And what would be more NFC East or 2020 than that.
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22. Denver Broncos (5-8)
This is another tricky one. The Broncos started their season 0-3 with really tough games against the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers. Since then they have gone 5-5 and played some really good football at times – wins over New England and Miami, a crazy comeback against the Chargers and playing the Chiefs close, plus one of those losses came when they didn’t have an actual quarterback on the roster. However, they also got blown their doors blow off by the Chiefs the first time around, the Raiders and the Saints (in that QB-less matchup). The big theme for this squad has been turnovers. They have given the ball away a league-high 29 times and they have forced the second-fewest turnovers (11), which makes their differential of -18 eight worse than any other team in the league. When you don’t convert your third downs offensively (only 37.6%) and allow big plays on defense (53 plays of 20+ yards), that is a problem. However, Drew Lock just played his best game as a pro and he has a lot of young talent around him catching passes, while they have averaged 127 rushing yards a game since their 0-3 start. And the defense has been getting after opposing quarterbacks – 32 sacks since then as well.
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23. Chicago Bears (6-7)
I don’t really like talking about the Bears anymore. When they started the season 5-1, I was among many to say they are not nearly as good as their record indicates – they lost six straight. When I put out my rankings of the top ten defenses about a month ago, I said they were the second-best unit in the league – they lay a complete egg and give up 41 points against the Packers and then pull a miracle in the wrong way to give away the Lions game and allow them to score 34. And then when I’m finally ready to fully write them off, they hold one of the hottest quarterbacks in football in Deshaun Watson to seven points and the offense finally wakes up in a get-right matchup against the Texans. I know they have faced poor defenses and he made some bad mistakes at Green Bay, but since Mitch Trubisky was inserted back into the lineup following their bye, they have averaged just over 30 points. And we know that defense can ball. When Akiem Hicks has been in the lineup, they have been elite or close to it in all areas. They could easily win at Minnesota and at Jacksonville and then we don’t know if the Packers have anything to play for when they come to Soldier Field in the season finale. So if that happens and Arizona just loses one game, they are most likely in the playoffs. Crazy.
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24. Detroit Lions (5-8)
A 5-8 record is not horrible and if they don’t blow that big lead to Chicago in the season-opener, they are well alive in the hunt for the NFC’s seven seed, with a win over Arizona and a chance to tie season-series with Minnesota. However, they are just looking to finish the year on a high note and make this look like a more desirable head coaching job. There is just nothing that really impresses you about the football team. They are bottom four in run offense and defense – so their opponents can always control the pace of the game. They are tied for the third-most yards per play allowed (6.0) and they have forced the third-fewest takeaways (12) – so there’s a heavy imbalance in big plays made between their defense and the opposing offense. And they are losing all the crucial situations when you compare their percentages with the ones of their opponents – minus 5.2% on third downs, 4.2% on fourth downs and 6.8% in red-zone scoring. Matt Stafford and Matt Prater have had moments of brilliance late in games, but as a team they just brought it enough on a weekly basis.
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Already out of it:

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The teams in this group have all been eliminated from playoff contention and show multiple issues. A couple of them have top ten quarterbacks this season in my book and I wouldn’t say any of them can’t win with who they have under center, but all five of them field bottom-half defenses and a couple of them just don’t know how to manage and win game at a high rate.
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25. Carolina Panthers (4-9)
This might be the best 4-9 team I have ever seen. Of course you can go back and look at times that have gotten hurt – and the Panthers have missed their best player in Christian McCaffrey – but in general they have been pretty healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has played the best football of his career under OC Joe Brady, they have a dangerous receiver trio, some of these young studs on defense have really shown up, like Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn, and they have hung tough in pretty much every game all season long. They just haven’t been able to actually pull it off, with all but two of their nine losses being by one possession and those couple of matchups with the Bucs were competitive until the fourth quarter too. Matt Rhule has built a foundation in Carolina that will win him a lot of games sooner than rather and when you look at the rest of the NFC South, none of them have a long-term solution at quarterback and they will all face significant cap problems in the future. So bite the bullet here and maybe give it another year, because then this team is ready to take over that division.
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26. Houston Texans (4-9)
Man, I feel so bad for Deshaun Watson. That guy is an elite quarterback and with the way Bill O’Brien and the entire organization have conducted business, they probably cost him a chance to go to a Super Bowl potentially during his rookie contract. Hopefully this season is as bad as it’s going to get, because he has been the only real bright spot. The two obvious problems with this team – they can’t run the ball and their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They only have two runs of 20+ yards all season long and if you take their quarterback out of it, they are averaging a miniscule 3.5 yards per carry (would be worst in the league). And their defense is the only one that ranks bottom three in average yards allowed per pass (7.9) and run (5.0), while they are also the only unit with single-digit takeaways (eight) – and six of those came against the Jaguars and Lions. The only two times they have allowed less than 20 points came against Jacksonville in one of their matchups and then at Cleveland in the rain, when the final score was 10-7 for the Browns. So because of that, only the Jets have less time of possession (27:10). When you look at their four wins on the season, it was all about Deshaun – and he almost got them one each over the top two teams in the AFC South, but he never touched the ball against the Titans and a bad snap from the opposing two-yard line cost them the Colts game.
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27. Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a team with worse coaching than this one. When it comes to a lack of adjustments being made, disgusting time management, the amount of big leads this time has surrendered and so many other things. It has just been a joke. And I feel bad for the players, because Justin Herbert is having a phenomenal rookie season, most likely setting new marks in all the major categories, Keenan Allen has been incredible and Joey Bosa has been terrorizing opposing backfields when healthy. Yet, the only reason they lost last week is because they faced another team that has no freaking idea of how to win a game late and Matt Ryan gifted them a chance to pull it off in the end. When you look at total yards, explosive plays all kinds of statistics, it almost makes no sense. The craziest number I can bring up for this team is that if you take out their embarrassing 45-0 debacle against the Patriots, they have scored just 1.5 less than their opponents – and they are 4-9. I’m so annoyed that Herbert’s rookie season will be kind of forgotten because of how bad the team was, but I just hope they put a competent coaching staff around him and they can finally break this curse they have been under as a franchise.
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28. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
I just talked about how the Falcons should have won that Chargers game last week – they had the ball twice in scoring range over the last four minutes and they blew it. Just like they did when they held a 15-point lead until five minutes left against the Cowboys in week two or when Todd Gurley fell into the end-zone when you were basically guaranteed a win if your kicker can just hit a 20-yard field goal at the end. Interim head coach Raheem Morris gave them some life in the middle of the season, but they disqualified themselves from any outside shot of somehow being in the playoff conversation with these last two losses, after they had a 43-6 blowout win over the Raiders. The defense has shown a lot of improvement since their 0-5 start, but the defense has not been able to get stops when they really needed it for the most part. And while the offense has a lot of firepower in theory, but Julio Jones has been banged up all season long, they are 25th in rushing offense and they have not scored enough points when they were put in those situations. Atlanta is one of only two teams in the league – to go along with the Jets – to not convert more than half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
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29. Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
Don’t let their 30-7 win over the Bengals fool you – this is not a good team. The Cowboys were 2-7 coming out of their bye week and then when pulled off the upset over the Vikings, everybody was like “Could they still win the NFC East?”, which is more an indictment on that division than where they were as a team. They went on to get embarrassed (again) on Thanksgiving by Washington and then Baltimore ran for almost 300 yards on them over the following two weeks. They have allowed the most points all season long (400) and they have allowed four different teams to go for over 200 rushing yards this season. That doesn’t mix well with turning the ball over at the third-highest rate league-wide (24 total) and your defense allowing opponents to convert half of their third-down attempts. Andy Dalton has played fairly well when available, but Zeke has been a major disappointment, the O-line has been devastated with injuries and I think I have said enough about their defense.
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Final tier in the comments!
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/12/17/nfl-power-rankings-heading-into-the-final-three-weeks-of-the-2020-season/
And make sure to check out my detailed recap of every game from the NFL's week 14 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tra31Htw-Ps
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You can find all my social media linked there as well!

PREVIOUS BETS STAND AT ODDS AGREED WHEN PLACED. UPDATED ODDS LISTED JUST BENEATH THIS HEADER AND APPLY TO ALL NEW WAGERS. SAME TOTAL LIMITS APPLY (10 OUNCES OF YOURS TOTAL PER TEAM).

UPDATED ODDS:
New Orleans Saints +750 (WAS +700) - 4 ounces with tdb4807 - 2 ounces with ObjectiveAce Pittsburgh Steelers +1700 (WAS +2200) - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur Cleveland Browns +5500 (WAS +5000) - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur Chicago Bears +10000 (WAS +8000)
I'm looking to pay YOU the odds listed below if YOUR chosen team wins it all! Bets are open until the beginning of the first playoff game at 12pm Central on Saturday, January 9.
I STILL MAY (AT MY DISCRETION) ACCEPT LATE BETS, PARTICULARLY IF THE TEAM HASN'T BEGUN THEIR GAME, SO FEEL FREE TO ASK!
I will accept total wagers of up to 10 ounces of .999 silver TOTAL PER TEAM. If you do not have any feedback/enough feedback for a wager, I may require you to put down a deposit with me.
Odds (sourced from Vegas Insider):
YOU have the team of your choice below! For example, you get 10 ounces on the Buccaneers to win it all. If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this season, I pay you 100 ounces of .999 silver!
✅ Buffalo Bills +700 - 5 ounces with wkk3211 - 5 ounces with tdb4807 - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ✅ New Orleans Saints +700 - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces with tdb4807 (+750) - 2 ounces with ObjectiveAce (+750) - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ✅ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000 - 2 ounces with jamcclea - 3 ounces with GorillaX - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with ToiletPlungerOfDoom - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ✅ Baltimore Ravens +1200 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Seattle Seahawks +1300 - 3 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Pittsburgh Steelers +2200 - 2 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+1700) - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Tennessee Titans +2800 - 2 ounces with grimcow - 2 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ✅ Los Angeles Rams +3000 - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Indianapolis Colts +4000 - 1 ounce with PMmePreciousMetals - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ✅ Cleveland Browns +5000 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+5500) - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Chicago Bears +8000 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Washington Football Team +8000 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with TheDonkeyDominator - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND
I would also like to wager MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 45 ounces of silver and I take the Packers to win it all, or MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 20 ounces of silver and I take the Chiefs to win it all.
Kansas City Chiefs +200 - 10 ounces with ObjectiveAce Green Bay Packers +450 - 10 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac because fuck it why not?
Give me some action, and good luck!!!

GO PACK GO!!!

Written Thursday January 14th, 2021 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Last week in the Wildcard Round I made three official picks against the spread: the lone losing bet was the Bills -6.5, while the other two were winners (Ravens -3 and Saints -10).
Many people have asked me to recap my preseason win total predictions. Remember that I previewed each of the 32 NFL teams, while making a pick on the oveunder for their win total. Those plays were largely based on the simulation of one million seasons using the projected point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
It turned out that 20 picks were right versus 12 that were wrong, a nice 62.5% win rate. I ended up racking up more than $8,000 on those bets. I wanted to go to Vegas to place larger bets, but COVID-19 prevented me from making the trip, unfortunately.
It’s now time for my Divisional Round picks against the spread. Buckle up, here we go!!!
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #1: LOS ANGELES RAMS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)
When the line opened at 7, I was clearly leaning towards the Rams. Early money agreed with me and went heavily on Los Angeles, so sportsbooks had to drop the line to 6.5. Since then, I have heard that bettors are hammering the Packers.
After analyzing the game in-depth, I am now betting Green Bay as 6.5-point favorites. Most of the time, I go against the public, but not this time.
The Packers are the number one seed and coming off a bye week. As mentioned several times this season, getting additional time to heal and gameplan has produced a much bigger advantage to great teams, as opposed to weaker squads who do not seem to make good use of this extra time. I believe we all agree Green Bay is a solid team.
On top of that, the Packers will be facing a banged up team. Jared Goff, John Wolford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are all hurt. They will likely suit up Saturday, but won’t be 100% for sure.
Also, L.A. is not used to playing in cold weather. We are expecting below-zero temperature, a situation where Aaron Rodgers is 29-7 straight up.
The Rams defense has been very impressive this season, but here is a jaw-dropping statistic: they have allowed an average of 13.5 points per game at home versus 23.5 on the road. That’s a huge difference! They haven’t been nearly as stifling as visitors this year. I do believe Rodgers and company will find a way to move the ball, especially if Aaron Donald is slowed down by his injured ribs.
Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with the Rams. They are 11-6 as home favorites since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach.
Rodgers and Goff did face off against each other in 2018, a game in which the Rams won 29-27 in Los Angeles. Rodgers will get the victory by at least 7 points this time around.
Official pick: Packers -6.5
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #2: BALTIMORE RAVENS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)
Born in Florida, Lamar Jackson said it would be his first time playing in the snow, if the forecast is right about getting close to an inch of snow this Saturday in Orchard Park, NY. That would make the field more slippery, and therefore more difficult for him to shake and bake as a runner.
That’s one of the reason why I’m going with Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites. The Bills will also be at home for the third straight week, while Baltimore will be traveling for a third consecutive time.
Also, the Ravens lose one day of preparation after playing last Sunday and now playing Saturday. That’s not a huge blow, but still worth mentioning.
Some things are scaring me, though. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. They also match up fairly well against Buffalo since they led the league in yards-per-carry, while Buffalo’s run defense finished 25th in that category. Also, the Bills pass the ball often, which happens to be Baltimore’s strength on defense (they were much softer against the run this year).
Still, I’ll go with Buffalo, whose offense has been much more convincing. The Ravens were struggling against a bad Titans defense last week, until Lamar scored on a 48-yard scamper that completely changed the game.
Despite a recent surge by Baltimore, the Bills seem to be the stronger team and they will be at home on a cold day. They have been one of the hottest teams in the league during the latter portion of the regular season, and they have what it takes to win their first Super Bowl ever.
Official pick: Bills -2.5
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #3: CLEVELAND BROWNS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10)
This won’t be an official pick since I don’t have that much confidence, but if I were forced to bet this game I’d bet Cleveland as 10-point dogs.
However, I do not like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a bye. Under such circumstances, Andy Reid is 20-3 in his career, an astounding record! Kansas City will also be at home for the fourth straight week, which means they didn’t have to travel and will be well-rested.
Still, I am leaning towards the Browns due to their strong running game facing the Chiefs’ front seven that has been soft at times. Cleveland will be looking to control the clock and leave Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.
After throwing 7 interceptions over the first 7 games of the season, Baker Mayfield has thrown just one in its past 10 matches! He has significantly improved, and he seems to be playing better since Odell Beckham went down to an injury.
The Chiefs have beaten the spread in 5 of their past 6 matchups at home against a team with a winning record, but they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently.
One more thing prevents me from pulling the trigger on this one: was Cleveland’s win in Pittsburgh last week their Super Bowl? Their subconscious might feel like they’ve already accomplished something great, and they may not be as hungry this week in K.C.
Lean: Browns +10
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #4: TAMPA BAY BUCS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)
You know how much I love the revenge factor. Beating the same opponent three times within the same season is very hard. That’s the challenge the Saints will be facing this Sunday. And that’s one of the reasons I’ll put my money on Tampa.
Am I super confident the Bucs will advance to the NFC Championship Game? No. The Saints might win a close game. If you back New Orleans, your ticket will be a winner only if New Orleans wins the game by 4 points or more. To me, that’s less likely to occur than Tampa either winning the game or losing by less than a field goal.
Sure, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with Sean Payton. They were also 1-4 ATS as road underdogs recently.
However, since their shameful 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 9, Tampa has scored an average of 34 points per game. It took them more time to develop chemistry on offense, and they have since added Antonio Brown to the mix.
New Orleans has beaten the spread the last four times they were home favorites, but they post a disappointing 1-5 ATS record as playoff favorites over the most recent years.
I expect a very tight game that could go either way, in which case I prefer to side with the underdog.
Official pick: Bucs +3
Enjoy the games!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/uiKo-YKjgok

I'm looking to pay YOU the odds listed below if YOUR chosen team wins it all! Bets are open until the beginning of the first playoff game at 12pm Central on Saturday, January 9.
I STILL MAY (AT MY DISCRETION) ACCEPT LATE BETS, PARTICULARLY IF THE TEAM HASN'T BEGUN THEIR GAME, SO FEEL FREE TO ASK!
I will accept total wagers of up to 10 ounces of .999 silver TOTAL PER TEAM. If you do not have any feedback/enough feedback for a wager, I may require you to put down a deposit with me.
Odds (sourced from Vegas Insider):
YOU have the team of your choice below! For example, you get 10 ounces on the Buccaneers to win it all. If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this season, I pay you 100 ounces of .999 silver!
❌ Buffalo Bills +700 - 5 ounces with wkk3211 - 5 ounces with tdb4807 - 5 ounces with Addictedtocoins (+600) ELIMINATED IN CONFERENCE ROUND
✅ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000 - 2 ounces with jamcclea - 3 ounces with GorillaX - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with ToiletPlungerOfDoom - 5 ounces with ftsleepad (+850) ADVANCED TO SUPERBOWL
❌ New Orleans Saints +700 - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces with tdb4807 (+750) - 2 ounces with ObjectiveAce (+750) - 5 ounces with sweenothe11 (+550) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Baltimore Ravens +1200 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 2 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja (+800) - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac (+800) - 3 ounces with trent6295 (+800) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Seattle Seahawks +1300 - 3 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Pittsburgh Steelers +2200 - 2 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+1700) - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Tennessee Titans +2800 - 2 ounces with grimcow - 2 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Los Angeles Rams +3000 - 3 ounces with gahmby (+1600) - 4 ounces with Lexicaltesticle (+1600) - 3 ounces with trent6295 (+1600) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Indianapolis Colts +4000 - 1 ounce with PMmePreciousMetals - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Cleveland Browns +5000 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+5500) - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins (+2500) - 3 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja (+2500) - 3 ounces with sweenothe11 (+2500) - 2 ounces with tdb4807 (+2500) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Chicago Bears +8000 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Washington Football Team +8000 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with TheDonkeyDominator - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND
I would also like to wager MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 45 ounces of silver and I take the Packers to win it all, or MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 20 ounces of silver and I take the Chiefs to win it all.
✅ Kansas City Chiefs +200 - 10 ounces with ObjectiveAce ADVANCED TO SUPERBOWL ❌ Green Bay Packers +450 - 10 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac because fuck it why not? ELIMINATED BY THE REFS IN THE CONFERENCE ROUND
Give me some action, and good luck!!!

GO PACK GO!!!

After last season/the Bears loss/the Packers loss, it’s become clear to all of us that the 2020 Lions are a completely unsalvageable pit of despair from which there is no escape.
Patricia should have been fired at the 50 yard line of Lambeau and then beheaded for his crimes against humanity.
Quin should be exiled from the land by a pack of ravenous hounds that chase him back east across Lake Huron.
Hopefully Stafford can catch a ride on a ship to the Undying Lands and get a fat contract from a QB-needy team before he retires. Killing Barry and Calvin AND Stafford is more than I can handle as a fan, let somebody be happy for the love of god.
That said, what to do for the rest of the 2020 season? Time to pick a team to bandwagon! It’s important to pick a good bandwagon team now if you want to have a chance at riding another team’s coattails all the way to the playoffs. Let’s go through the list (by last week’s power ranking) and discuss.
The Top 5
Here’s where you go for your best bet at sure-fire contenders. This section is for bandwagoners who want to see their team go to the Super Bowl in order to get some semblance of the shine of the Lombardi trophy on your face, even if you know in your heart you cheated to get there by becoming an imposter in the fanbase of a foreign team from foreign lands.

1. Chiefs – Last year’s super bowl winners with the new hotness Patrick Mahomes at QB and lovable BBQ-eating Andy Reid at HC, plus Travis Kelce. Historic underdogs finally having their moment in the sun is a perfect fit for a Lions fan to root for. This is bandwagoning on easy mode, the clear pick in my opinion. Number one in the rankings, number one in my cold dead 2020 heart.
2. Ravens – The only better pick than the Chiefs is the Ravens. Lamar Jackson playing QB is probably the most fun thing you can watch on television right now period. I bandwagoned the Ravens all through last season while dreaming that Stafford’s back healing up might make a difference in 2020 (oh how young and naïve I was) and it was a great time! They imploded a little bit in the playoffs but hey, this could be their year!
3. Seahawks – This is a nice pick for some history, familiarity, and stability. The Seahawks are always in it as long as they have Russ and Pete Carroll, and last night we watched them go 2-0 against the Pats in a serious nail-biter finish. You know you’re at least going on a deep playoff run if you bandwagon the Seahawks.
4. Saints – Watching Brees continue to cement himself as a top all-time QB, potentially in his final year, with an actual defense, Michael Thomas, and Kamara? It’s sure to be a fun ride! Plus, the Saints are another team that knows a lot about long droughts of success, hanging around the bottom of the league, kicked while they’re down, nobody ever believing in them. They’re soul mates in pain, and it’s fun to watch those teams succeed.
5. Packers – No. Never.

The Middle of the Pack
So you’re not looking for a sure thing, you’re interested in a bumpier bandwagon ride. The middle of the pack of is for you! These teams will have ups and they’ll have downs, and if they make it to the Super Bowl, or even the deep playoffs, the victory will be all the sweeter.

1. 49ers – After Sunday I believe every single player on the 49ers has a torn ACL or something like that, but hey, they made it to the SB last year and they could do it again! 49ers are historic and who doesn’t like to root for a classic franchise?
2. Bills – A true sister-ship team of the Lions. Forever frustrated and disappointed fans now getting their chance to root for a QB who throws over 400. I like Josh Allen because to hear his bio it really sounds like he just found himself in the NFL by accident and is somehow pulling it off. Plus now he’s got Stefon Diggs, who is no longer our divisional problem. Classic underdog pick, go Bills.
3. Steelers – Roethlisberger is back, JuJu is great, and the Steelers are always in it. If you want that authentic “we’re more blue collar than you” experience, Steelers are a solid pick. Bonus: revisit the days of Ebron and watch him brick-hand pass after pass, and feel some semblance of relief that out of all the problems the Lions have this year, he’s not one of them.
4. Titans – A great pick for the Lions fan who wants a long-shot with good odds. If Tannehill keeps his breakout alive and Derrick Henry keeps trucking people, they’re a tough team to stop. Plus now they have Clowney (how could Patricia not go after Clowney Jesus Christ are you kidding me he had a chance to grab an elite DE in free agency and shore up in pathetic pass rushers and we didn’t even hear about him trying to land him how fucking pathetic can you believe this guy… wait no don’t think about that!) Titans are a sleeper for the SB and I think they’ll continue to surprise everybody this year.
5. Patriots – No Brady, no problem. Patriots still look great as always, plus Cam Newton is way more fun to root for than Brady ever was. Watch Belichik potentially use his evil powers for good and get Cam a ring. Patriots can feel dirty to root for but it’s also like eating a whole chocolate cake after you’ve been on a years-long diet. Sometimes it feels good just to give in.
6. Rams – This is the team you want to root for if you’re a big NFL conspiracy theorist and think hidden capitalists are pulling the strings behind the scenes to rig games. “The NFL wants LA to succeed because it’s a huge and largely untapped market of a city. For that to work, either the Rams or the Chargers have to go deep every year until LA is turning out their pockets for that sweet football merch.” Maybe it’s true, maybe not, maybe who cares! Also a great team to watch if you want to see Aaron Donald wreck people every single play. Remember, Donald could have been ours but instead we drafted Ebron. I’m just kidding, I know you didn’t forget. How could you?
7. Cardinals – Kyler “Calamari” Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald pulling this team out of the depths and into something respectable would be a fun ride to watch. Another franchise with historic pain, a dark horse long-shot, it speaks to my Detroit-hardened heart.
8. Cowboys – Rooting Cowboys is like going after the dumb hot girl. She’s not going to amount to much but she sure does get a lot of attention. If you want to watch a lot of primetime games and hear about your bandwagon team in sports media constantly, may as well pick the Boys. Win, lose or draw, for some reason we all have to talk about them all the time. Also, it’s fun to root for Kellen Moore, and it’s fun to watch Zeke be a wrecking ball. Successful run game teams actually exist!
9. Vikings – Ew. I guess. Kirk Cousins can play football and Dalvin Cook is a running back. Riley Reiff used to live here. Kyle Rudolph has a fun name if you’re a big Christmas person. I don’t know. This seems like a pointless bandwagon unless you really like the color purple.
10. Buccaneers – Never count Brady out. Love him or hate him (hate him) Brady is historic and worth watching. If you want to watch Belichick-less Brady in his final year(s), reunited with Gronkowski, tearing up the ground with Fournette, this is a solid band wagon pick.
11. Texans – Another great fit for the Lions: watch an incredibly talented QB get hamstrung by his incompetent coaching staff and wasted in his scheme, all while his good-on-paper defense continues to let him down on the field. JJ Watt is still fun to watch, and moreso if you close your eyes and pretend is 2013 and we all still love him.

The Bottom Half
Bandwagoning to win is for pussies, you’re here to bandwagon a team that is either an extra-super long-shot, or another team with no chance to pair with your Lions heartbreak. You sick son of a bitch, I respect it, but I don’t think it’s good for you.

1. Eagles – Good pick for It’s Always Sunny fans who want to root for Jim Schwartz.
   
2. Raiders – Cool uniforms, cool fans, another chance at an NFL conspiracy team due to the move to Vegas
   
3. Falcons – If you can’t watch Stafford succeed, you may as well watch his buddy Matt Ryan also not succeed.
   
4. Bears – Chicago is cool and nearby, and the Bears haven’t been successful in a long time, so it doesn’t feel completely gross. Any win they can get with Trubisky at the helm they damn sure deserve.
   
5. Chargers – Actually looked legit good against the Chiefs with their new QB Justin Herbert, plus you got Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram on defense. This is probably as far down the list as you can go and find an actual contender. This is your longest long shot for the true masochist who still wants hope involved.
   
6. Broncos – Good pick for big South Park fans. Also I guess if you’re still high on Von Miller.
   
7. Colts – Their colors are similar to ours and Indiana is pretty close. This strikes me as a particularly hopeless bandwagon pick, but they do have a running back, which could be fun to watch.
   
8. Jaguars – Minshew Mania makes this a solid pick. Plus it’s another cat team.
   
9. Washington – Chase Young, oh what could have been.
   
10. Lions – "Bandwagon? Bandwagon?! We don't need no stinking bandwagon!" Ride or die motherfucker, it's Lions Only for your fandom. You're a captain going down with the ship, you're gonna sit here and watch Patricia waste another year of Stafford's career, fail at the run game, fail to adjust, fail on defense, fail at everything all season long. Because when we go 0-16 again, you'll be able to look back and say you were there. You'll bear witness to our heroic Tank for Trevor Lawrence, and the pride that comes before the fall of the house of Quintricia. And when we see flashes of greatness from Stafford, 100 yard rushers from AD, interceptions from Okudah, and long-yard FGs from Prater, you'll be there to cheer on the Lions as always. Win or lose, rain or shine, Detroit vs. Everybody.
    
11. Bengals – Root for Joe Burrow. Plus it’s another cat team.
    
12. Panthers – Blue cat team.
    
13. Dolphins – Tank for Tua actually happened and honestly good for them. Plus a little dose of Fitzmagic in your life.
    
14. Giants – Daniel Jones is an Eli clone and honestly that kind of science should be studied. Might be worth checking out.
    
15. Browns – Great pick if you’re done with the Lions but don’t want to improve through bandwagoning in any way shape or form. A true historic and present lateral move, a decision forged in Midwest hopelessness and gallons of beer. Godspeed to anyone choosing to bandwagon the Browns this season.
    
16. Jets – The "just let the pain flow through me" option.
    

Comments analysis after 24 hours
The names I'm seeing the most after 24 hours and 48 comments are Seattle, Buffalo, Arizona, and Chargers. So 3 outta 4 you guys are goddamn gluttons for punishment! Lions fans through and through, you won't even bandwagon a sure thing, it's gotta be a long-shot underdog story of a long-suffering franchise that MIGHT have some success this year. Goddamn, never change guys.