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The original author's account was deleted, so unfortunately I can't credit them. Regardless, full credit to them. This post was included in the deletion, so it took a decent amount of digging to find and save. Shoutout to u/adamfixeseverything. Enjoy. -

Hey guys,
I thought I’d post about my thoughts on MMED. First of all, please do your own due diligence and do not fall victim to the pump, hype and euphoria. These are highly speculative investments and have significant risk associated. All that said, there have been many requests for fundamental analysis and MMED projections so I wanted to provide my thoughts.
*All figures in USD (market cap, sales) except for my investment holdings. I purchased MMED.NE shares. Source data available as well, but got messy with all the 10-k filings and links in the table.
Entry Point
First and foremost, I want to address the most commonly raised question on this thread: “Is it too late to buy MMED?” Any investment is subject to the risk / reward paradigm. Those that got in at $0.3 deserve every penny they earned as MMED was by definition a penny stock and one of the most risky investments you could own. Since then, it has grown tremendously due to scientific milestones which have pointed to significant progress in the industry.
The milestones MMED has achieved have DERISKED MMED from a penny stock to a small cap biotech company with a very large drug portfolio and numerous future catalysts. I do not expect to make 10x my investment in a week, nor should you. Is there still tremendous upside even at the current valuation of ~$1.5bn? I strongly believe so and will let my position reinforce that.
I entered this space with an average cost of ~$4.9 CAD, holding 311,206 shares, and a book value of ~1.5MM. Yes you read that correctly. Do I panic every day and check the ticker? No. Does my heart beat thinking of the time I evaporated ~$500,000 in unrealized loss when the stock was at $3.4? No. In fact, I continue to pick up shares at what I believe is a discounted valuation. There will be many that look at $4.9 entry point and think that even I got in at the bottom. It’s all relative.

OP's Original Investment
I only invested what I could afford to lose and although $1.5MM is a large sum of money, it is not my entire portfolio, nor would it impact my daily life. If I lost it all it would not impact my ability to service my mortgage, pay my bills, impact my other investments, nor prohibit me from doing the things I love. I continue to hold dry powder and monitor my investment on a monthly basis, while continuing to buy following successful milestones.
This is a very long term play that could fundamentally change the way we treat the body’s most important organ. We are just getting started. I have a very strong conviction on the future outcome of this industry and that is the reason I couldn’t be bothered about short term fluctuations. An important question to ask yourself is whether you believe MMED can reach its next scientific milestone. Take things one step at a time and is there a probability the next scientific update will be positive? Emphasis on science, ignoring NASDAQ, candlesticks, and capital structure (for now).
Institutional Capital
I work in finance (albeit project finance / private equity, and don’t value stocks for a living, so don’t consider me an expert here) but already know of a few moderately capitalized asset managers that are now participating in MMED. The recent bought deals are evidence of sophisticated capital flowing into this industry. I personally qualify as an ‘accredited investor’ and am having conversations constantly with folks in my circles who are investing heavily into these stocks. As more institutional capital flows in, the more stable these stocks become. Of course, this is all relative.
Access to liquidity
As with all brand new industries, the capital requirement is immense in order to bring products to market. What drew me into the space was the fact that MMED did raise capital. Biotech stocks do not have cashflow, thus their only path to fund operations is through equity raises. The fact that MMED was able to raise over $237MM CAD since May 2019 is a positive for this company. Yes it is dilutive, and good job for paying attention in finance 101 class, but bootstrapping a biotech company is not possible, nor is servicing debt.
The path to commercialization of will be full of obstacles, however a strong balance sheet with sufficient capital gives MMED the resources to get there. The current valuation has tremendous upside following scientific milestones and future equity raises and dilutions are a good thing, as it will be at an increased valuation.
There are definitely smaller cap companies out there that may double overnight, however for the risk / reward, I do not feel comfortable owning companies that don’t have a large balance sheet, nor a diversified drug portfolio.
Believe in the Science
I do not feel I am in a position to write original content on the efficacy of these drugs. I have done my research and read a fair number of published studies but anything that I write would simply be regurgitating what others have said.
The biggest investors in this space are those with personal experiences with psychedelics because you have first-hand experience of the profound meaning extracted from one treatment. The ability to dissolve your ego enables you to deal with the root cause of so many problems ranging from depression, PTSD and addition, without approaching the problem by numbing symptoms. Herein lies the inherent value of this industry and will simply take time to prove it through trails. I have the conviction to continue to invest because I believe in the science. The data to reinforce this is on its way, and I personally want to invest now, knowing that the likelihood of very significant catalysts are probable.
Forecasts
This of course is the elephant in the room for early investors, later[er] investors and bears alike. Is a $1.5bn market cap pricing in all of the upside already? Is this a $100bn stock? This company has zero revenues, shouldn’t it be worth zero?
The truth is, no one knows. There is tremendous risk with this company. However, I will not be selling unless we see some significant negative scientific outcomes. Again, less emphasis on stock price, NASDAQ, more emphasis on the science. Everything else will follow.
The various ways to value a company (DCF, sales / earnings multiples, liquidation value etc) all have their issues with an early stage company of this nature. Any sort of bottoms up DCF analysis is just guessing because variables such as patient count, dosage, pricing, market share, market penetration, amongst other have far too much variation to come up with a reliable figure. Discount rates and time horizon can favour your outcome depending on how aggressive / conservative you are.
Thus, the way I like to look at this market is a best case scenario for a single drug, based off historical sales data from one company and one drug. This implicitly takes into account patient dosage, competition, market share, market penetration etc, because one drug from one company has already proven its ability to capture such sales data.

Data
I have broken out annual sales data for various comparable drugs according to MMED’s current pipeline offering. This is the inherent benefit of MMED, is that it has a diverse portfolio covering many underserved issues. Like many of you, I believe MMED’s biggest blockbuster will be Layla, given the problem of Opioid addition plus MMED’s IP rights on 18-MC to corner sales. Suboxone is the current drug on the market due to delayed onset effects ranging from 24-36 hours, compared to someone in withdrawal uses fast acting opioids 3-4 times a day. Suboxone itself however is still addictive and has a long list of negative side effects. Furthermore, it does not correct dopamine dysregulation in patients.
The sales of Suboxone alone are growing at an ~9% CAGR, with sales expected to reach ~$4bn in 2028
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/18/2079779/0/en/Opioid-Use-Disorder-OUD-in-8-Major-Markets-2018-2028-Reformulations-of-Buprenorphine-Will-Drive-Growth.html.
The use case for 18-MC however, does not stop at Opioid addiction, and can be applied to alcohol dependency and smoking dependency among others. This means the TAM for 18-MC could be significantly larger than the existing market captured by Suboxone given its smaller demographics relative to 18-MC. Could Layla exhibit sales greater than Suboxone one day? Who knows. Sticking with comp sales for the analysis for now.
Various anxiety, depression and ADHD medication is also shown in the table to show sales potential of Lucy, Albert and the micro dose programmes.
Is there a possibility of a LSD, 18-MC, or LSD compound or derivative achieving blockbuster drug status? Do you think there is an inherent benefit to a psychedelic compared to an antidepressant sedative with side effects such as nausea, weight gain etc?
Your perceived probability and sales outcomes depends on whether you believe in the science. Those that don’t can easily be skeptical of a $1.5bn market cap many years away from profitability.
Those that do, look at the next half a dozen clinical trial outcomes as very probable and thus have applied a less punitive discount to the stock valuation. I have rationalized my decision to invest at $1.5MM because of my own perceived discount rate and confidence in the next 12 months of positive catalysts.
Valuation Multiples
Now, as many of you know, investors pay a multiple for the future earnings of a company, today. If a drug makes $1bn annually, investors will pay a multiple of future earnings expected over the drugs lifetime, discounted by various factors.
There are various metrics to use here, ranging from Enterprise Value / Sales or various types of earnings metrics. MMED is years away from having a real operating company, anything to sell, or even the corporate infrastructure to get it to market. However, the question has always been, how big do you think this company could get?
This is where things can get tricky. We used peak annual sales in the last section to forecast comparable estimates for MMED revenues. Thus, I believe it is appropriate to use mature, large cap trading multiples instead of early stage bio techs, as our revenue estimates were mature figures with stabilized growth. If we were to use companies / drugs earlier in their lifecycle or clinical phases, the trading multiples would be much higher because the market is buying potential future sales. Can’t have it both ways.

Chart
All of the chart data in the graph is specific to the pharma industry. However, there are various subsectors to the industry such as Contract Development Manufacturing and Contract Research Organization. MMED would likely have to partner with each of these types of firms to scale its business, better assess market size etc, but wouldn’t trade at similar multiples given a different business model. Same goes for Packaging and Distribution.
The graph also shows S&P average which is a good rule of thumb.

Other chart
Although the chart gives a good reference point for pharma multiples, I wanted to look at valuation from a more company specific perspective. The chart above shows large cap specialty pharma companies that are publically traded. This will give you an approximate median value of what the market is willing to pay for a company that has a certain amount of sales. As you can see in the green box, industry multiples of EV/EBIITDA or EV/Sales will basically get you to the same place. Median pharma industry EBITDA margins are in the 40% range with EV/Sales at ~4x vs EV/EBITDA of 10x.
Note that the above list of trading comps is stale data, as of Sept ’19. I only want to use public data and have refrained from using Bloomberg, Cap IQ etc. Thus the information I’m posting is merely reposts of info available on Google. As you can see, Allergan is listed in this table as a live trading comp, and has since been acquired by AbbVie. Accordingly, I want to highlight some notable M+A activity:
Amgen acquires Celgne’s plaque psoriasis drug, Otezla $13.4bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.6x Thermo Fisher acquires Qiagen for $11.5bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.3x Abbvie acquires Allergan for $84.2bn: EV / LTM Sales = 5.4x Elanco acquires Bayer’s animal health unit for $7.6bn: EV / LTM Sales = 4.5x As you can see, companies are willing to pay a premium in M&A to acquire competitors and drugs, due to synergies, reduction in SG&A etc.
This is a very long winded way of showing that if one of MMED’s compounds hits, and exhibits sales in line with any sort of comparable drug from the table above, this could be a $20-30 billion dollar company (~4bn*5-7x). If several of these drugs reach commercialization, this is potentially a $100 billion dollar company.
Now I agree that these projections are completely outlandish right now. I’m simply doing the exercise you all wanted.
Feel free to guess at your own forecast sales and multiply out enterprise value using the above metrics. Before you rip me apart for the extreme optimism, I understand that I’m using multiples for stable, reputable, large cap pharma. I understand that there is an extreme amount of stigma attached to psychedelics and achieving ubiquity for these treatments is a large uphill battle. There is an enormous amount of work, luck and time from now until sales and this is not to be under estimated.
Do I think MMED is worth $30-$100bn today? No.
Do I think MMED is worth somewhere in between today’s valuation and $30-$100bn?
Depends whether you believe in the science. If you’re reading this, odds are you do. I invested because I believe it too.
So instead, let’s take a lazy man’s approach to valuation and take things one step at a time.
Simpler Approach to Valuation
The exercise above is to show you all the immense potential of MMED’s drug portfolio. Do I think MMED is the next Pfizer, Abbie Vie or Eli Lilly? No. This is not a $500bn dollar company. However, I do genuinely think there is tremendous upside not factored into the pricing for this stock.
Fundamental analysis aside, I think the simplest way to approach valuation is from a catalyst + efficient market hypothesis perspective. Markets are not fully efficient, nor even semi-efficient, but there is some sort of reasoning in believing what the market is willing to pay. The obvious flaws in this are that the market right is riddled with irrational investors and a market of 300m financially illiterate traders isn’t more efficient than an illiquid market of 10 rational ones. As of today’s post there is a discount to the $4.40 price. To me, that’s just more opportunity to continue to scoop up more shares.
I have stayed out of the industry in the early days because truthfully I did not know which stocks to pick. Since then, much smarter people than me have done their diligence and allocated their capital to the companies that they believe are winners. This is part of an efficient market hypothesis.
Sophisticated capital flowed into MMED @ 4.40 / share, with the expectation to make a profit. I also, invested in this company at $4.9/share, with the expectation to make a profit. If we establish this as a baseline, do we believe there will be more positive than negative catalysts in the next year and in the future, such that we will see accretion in the share price? Conversely, if we see negative outcomes in future catalysts, it will cause erosion in the stock valuation. Below are near term events which should have a significant impact on share price:
Project Lucy
Phase 2 readout– Q1 2021 Open IND w/ FDA for Phase 2b – Q3 2021 Project Layla
Phase 2a study– Second half of 2021 Strategic Pharma Partner Potential – Late 2021 Various
Combined MDMA LSD Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 IV DMT Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 First ever Phase 2a clinical trial Microdose LSD – Q3 2021 Patent filed for neutralizer technology for LSD to shortestop hallucinogenic effects Game changer for safe, regulated environment for clinical administration Given that Phase 1 studies are focused on safety, what are the odds clinically developed LSD / MDMA fails a safety test?
Given that Phase 2 studies are focused on proof of concept and method, what are the odds the clinically designed process fails the test?
Believe in the science.
Each one of these incremental catalysts derisks MMED, and will bring the valuation closer to ‘blockbuster drug’ status, albeit inches at a time. Just as the bought deal derisked this company for me to participate, achievements in clinical trials will be evidence for more investors to jump in as well. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and guess at how large this company can get. Just think of what is the next step and do your own evaluation as to whether achieving it is realistic. Once we get through the above list, there will be more milestones to pass such as Phase 2bs and 3s. If we establish $4.40 as the baseline currently and MMED has a successful outcome in any of the previously listed catalysts, there should be a significant accretion in valuation.
There is a noticeable omission for most of you, in that I’ve left out the NASDAQ up listing, future dilutions and general capital structuring events. To me, a NASDAQ uplisting is irrelevant. This will add liquidity, although probably more volatility, but changes zero fundamentals about the stock. It should however, add more weight to the efficient market hypothesis and erase the discount I believe this stock is trading at. We’ll see some analyst coverage with price targets that will attract more investors, but the fundamentals of the stock do not change.
With respect to stock price, it is impossible to forecast this because the capital structure of this company is completely unknown. IF we can even get to revenue generation, and this becomes a $30-100bn company, how much dilution will there be from now until then to back out a share price? The point is that there is so much runway in share price accretion from now until then, that I’m not bothered with anything finance related for this company. There is potential for 50-70x accretion in the value of this company. The focus needs to be on the science. MMED has raised enough money to get though its next set of obstacles and fund operations, thus insolvency risk has fallen away for now which is really the only important financial point for early stage biotech.
Let’s take things one step at a time, believe in the science and be patient.
Cash position & Expenditures
As you can see below, the quarterly burn payroll burn rate is quite low for MMED relative to its cash position. It’s hard to discern which items under their historical expenditures are one off versus recurring, thus difficult to calculate their exact run rate. However, the huge positive here the low ratio of payroll relative to its cash.

Data table
Next up we have the projected use of proceeds from their latest raise, net of underwriter expenses. Now that the Over-Allotment has been exercised, MMED has additional capital that it has further allocated to Albert, Lucy, Layla and the Microdose LSD program.
Proceeds Table
General takeaway is that MMED is well enough capitalized to get through its next phase of milestones. I will be keeping an eye on news surrounding the Microdose LSD program. Estimates at this stage for Phase 2a are $3-4m and the results of which will inform capital expenditures required for future phases. A positive milestone in Q3 ’21 should be an incredibly positive catalyst for this company.
Proving that you’ve raised capital and have enough cashflow to get to the next step doesn’t guarantee we’ve picked the winner in the industry. It does however give me confidence that MMED will continue to be a going concern for at least the short term and get to a point when new investors can come in at a much higher valuation. This is a real risk for the penny stocks out there without capital or IP, and that is the reason I chose MMED.
Edit: Did some re-formatting to make it easier to read cause it's pretty lengthy and there's a lot of details. Hopefully it helps.
Edit #2: I went back into the trash compacter and salvaged the original data and charts since some people were asking. The resolution may be questionable, so apologies for that, you might have to zoom in.

10 investing principles for beginners:

These incidents occurred in the Rocky Mountains ...

These incidents occurred in the Rocky Mountains just south of Silver Plume, Colorado beginning on the evening of August 14, 2018 and more strange reoccurrences would take place the following couple of nights.
That day a couple of neighbors had gone hiking along the ridgeline of Leavenworth Mountain, just south of town, and I was set to meet them up there later that afternoon. My plan was to rendezvous with them in the early evening and hang out until after the sun went down. That night was the peak of the perseid meteor shower and it was forecast to be especially spectacular since the moon would be a barely thin crescent and would not obscure the clear dark skies. So I set out in the following hours with a small pack and limited supplies since I was staying relatively close to home. I did have a small camelback with liter or 2 of water, a rock hammer and hatchet, and my new green laser that I was hoping would add another bit of goodtimes to the night’s light show.
I started the hike a bit later than I’d planned. The main trails to the top consisted of a series of long and winding switchbacks so I decided to cut some time by bushwacking straight up the mountain to meet my friends. My plan backfired as I found myself slowed down by steeper than anticipated inclines, slippery rock tailings, and sheer cliffs. Unfortunately the cell service is spotty at best and I was unable to contact my friends until finally reaching the summit around sunset. After a few attempts I finally got connected to my pals via text and to my surprise learned that they had already hiked back down into town as it was starting to get dark. I told em no problemo, since I had planned to stay up top o the mountain until late anyway to count meteors and maybe they could join later. They informed me they were pretty beat from the day’s trek but would let me know after they’d rested a bit and had some dinner if they thought they’d make it back out. The new arrangement was perfectly fine by me.
Being the consummate night owl and having lived in this area for 5+ years, most of my excursions into the mountains tended to be nocturnal and I’d spent many a night, some planned, some not, getting along just fine in these precarious mountains and usually had very little anxieties in doing so. In this manner I made my way down the ridgeline of Leavenworth to a locally known camping area, Pavilion Point, which from its high vantage point overlooked both Silver Plume and the neighboring town of Georgetown. In between the two small towns, approximately 2-3 miles apart, was an old railroad attraction called The Georgetown Loop. I should also mention now that at this time there was a strict fire ban in effect and that this summer was probably the driest I’d experienced since moving to Colorado back in 2013. There were also several wildfires reeking havoc in the state requiring all available emergency resources. Failing to adhere to the fire ban was taken very seriously with fines ranging in the thousands of dollars. That being said I had not planned on having a campfire for the obvious reasons. After settling into a comfortable spot near Pavilion Point, I kicked back and started counting the fireballs. By 9 or 10PM, my friend let me know they wouldn’t be making it back up the mountain and to enjoy the show and that maybe he would join me the following night. Over the next hour or two I had counted close to 100 meteors, ranging from quick zips to bright fireballs that would leave these awesome streaks that temporarily frooze in the sky like thin glow sticks that slowly faded into the darkness behind.
I was having a blast and as the novelty was finally starting to wear off, I began hearing some faint noises and rustling about in the darkness of the surrounding woods. I wasn’t worried much yet and was used to hearing all kinds of strange sounds in the woods and knew it was probably nothing more than some deer or a porcupine at worst. But after a few minutes, and as the rustling seemed to be moving closer, paranoia got ahold of me and I decided to take some action. Typically during similar late night adventures, I would just build a small campfire to scare away any critters and add some comforting proximity light to the area. But as previously stated, fires, no matter how well contained were strictly prohibited. Besides the fact that I could possibly be cited and fined, I was more worried about actually causing a wildfire which I would never be able to forgive myself if somehow responsible for destroying the surrounding woods which I had now considered home. That’s when I remembered that in my backpack I had that powerful green laser. I wrestled around the pack in the dark for a few moments and I kicked myself for not remembering I had brought it thinking now maybe it could scare off animals. Glad to have found it in hand I started aiming into the dark woods and bushes where I had heard noises. I felt more at ease for a moment until the laser hit the eyes of some forest creature in some nearby bushes. The eyes reflecting the laser like what you’d see driving a late night dark highway, the deer in the headlights effect. Whatever it was, likely a fox I hoped, screeched and disappeared into the darkness. I also had with me a small dim headlamp which had remained off the entirety of the night to help keep my natural night vision. I quickly shined it around but it was pretty much useless in illuminating anything further than a dozen or so feet.
A bit startled at this point, but not wanting to head down the mountain just yet, I decided to go against reason and proceeded to build a tiny firepit using the stones around me until I had a foot and a half circular pit constructed with a large flat rock to cover the top that I figured would definitely contain all burning embers and hopefully any light that might be looking to escape. I also stationed my cambelback next to it to douse the flames if need be. Still probably the smallest campfire I’d ever made. The smoldering twig pile literally the size of my hand still immediately put me at ease. That feeling was unfortunately short lived and after a few minutes I was feeling guilty about breaking the rules and possibly putting the area in danger with my small fire. But instead of putting it out, I decided it’d be best to have a quick scout around the area to see if I could spot any signs of a possible patrolling forest ranger or nearby campers even though in my previous 5 years hanging around here had never seen a single soul in this area at night. Deciding it couldn’t hurt, I made my way over to a scenic overlook which loomed 1000ft or more directly over the Georgetown Loop Railroad area with Silver Plume dimly illuminated to the west and Georgetown to the east. I scanned the surrounding woods looking for any signs of life and saw nothing unusual. As my fears of breaking the law or of sparking a natural disaster subsided, I eased back and continued dinking around with the laser, wielding it like a light saber and tracing the lines of meteors that were still zipping overhead.
As midnight approached, I guess I’d had my fill of shooting stars for one night and decided to take one last look around for fire snitches. As I went over and peered down towards the railroad near the base of the mountain, I noticed what looked like a singular light pop on which quickly turned into two lights which to my stunned dismay appeared to be heading up in my direction. I was immediately taken aback by the sight of any lights in that area being that the railroad was closed and didn’t allow camping on the premises. The two lights appeared impossibly to be moving straight up the mountain directly towards me. The proceeding incline between myself and the railroad was luckily made up of dense forest with steep jagged cliffs and without a doubt had no roads or trails that would lead straight up the mountain. My initial thought when the lights appeared was that it must be forest rangers on ATVs or dirtbikes or something and they somehow miraculously detected my small fire, perhaps with trail cameras, thermal optics, or night vision. I was baffled that there were two separate lights as I had knowledge that we had only one forest service employee that oversaw this entire geological quadrangle and it was highly unlikely, rather inconceivable, that they would be on any kind of watch or patrol that night much less two of them. Regardless I stared down in amazement for a moment quickly calculating that even with fast dirtbikes on some unknown secret trail, I probably had the jump on them by at least 5-10 minutes. I turned, urgently gathering my things and dumped the rest of my water on any remaining embers just in case the fire was what they were after and proceeded to scurry in the opposite direction on the main trail that lead me back towards Silver Plume. I figured even at a brisk walk I’d be so far out ahead of any pursuers that I needn’t worry too much and made my way without any flashlight or headlamp, as to not draw any further unwanted attention. Was there really anybody headed up the mountain to look for me anyways? It seemed completely improbable and I was probably overreacting to the movement of some odd lights, so I was telling myself.
After a couple minutes I made it maybe 200 yards down the trail and quickly glanced back to Pavilion Point. To my complete and utter horror I could see what looked like a couple bright flashlights darting around from left to right frantically searching around the same area I had built my firepit. I couldn’t believe my eyes and a deep sense of dread flooded over me. Although thoroughly confused now, I supposed that my fire must have been spotted and I was likely in a lot of trouble. In this moment I still believed that the lights had to be some type of forest ranger or law enforcement cracking down hard the imposed fire ban. Realizing now that if caught I would probably receive a misdemeanor citation and be fined upwards of $2000, I began to run.
As I got into full sprint, I reached over my shoulders and grabbed both rock hammer and hatchet off my pack that had started clanking together loudly. The headlamp around my neck I would click on then off for only a second at a time every dozen paces or so. Like I mentioned at the start it was very very dark and there were many twists and turns along this trail. With that in mind I realized that taking the switchbacks would not be an ideal way of getting down this mountain and so started darting down some smaller off chute deer trails that though tighter and more treacherous would ultimately get me down faster. As I turned and jetted down one of these more concealed byways, I could see one of these lights, which had a hint of purplish florescent hue and looked kind of like a motorcycle headlight, was headed right down the main trail in my direction. I could also see that the second light had picked a different trajectory towards me from Pavilion Point, making a b-line that, to my bewilderment, shot it up over the treeline straight in my direction. At this moment my mind felt like it had exploded.
There was now no possible explanation for the situation I now found myself. Things were not adding up in any logical way, not even close. First, the improbability that my fire could have been traced or seen, nearly zero. Second, two rangers or law enforcement in the area willing to give pursuit, also nearly zero. Third, the fact that those lights could traverse that dense and steep mountain face within mere minutes, for sure impossible. And now, one of the lights had taken flight, literally defying gravity in front of my eyes as it effortlessly glided over the thick wooded pines that covered the entire area. Mind blown! All of a sudden, this was no longer about getting a ticket, or be fined, or receiving a stern scolding about forest safety and whatnot. No, this was… this was… I didn’t have time to think about it.
My legs never stopped moving as I squinted my eyes trying to see my way down this god forsaken mountain. I clicked the headlamp on/off, never slowing down, on/off, another dozen paces, on/off. And that’s when I felt it, within a split second, all of sudden I’m completely weightless. Silence. What’s happening? Did I die? Had I been shot or something? I didn’t hear any gunshots. And then, CRACK!SMASH!BAM!, as my legs hit hard wood and broke thru thick tree branches. I relaxed my hands and the hatchet and rock hammer were gone. Sharp pain and I immediately thought my legs were broken. I was spinning, no tumbling. One last CRASH! as I landed on my back against what felt like solid rock. Another lightning BOLT of pain. This time my tailbone as my back end flattened against the rock pile. I felt broken, my legs felt broken. I didn’t know what had just happened. Blinding pain now all over my body and as I lay my head back for a second to get my bearings, I see overhead behind me up about 20-30 feet, on what must have been the trail I was just on, zoomed that purplish white light as it continued down the small deer trail towards town. A half second later out in front of me and slightly downhill zoomed the second light, now below the treeline on the adjacent main trail running parallel the one that had disappeared beneath my feet. I lay for a second wondering if I was dead, then wondering how many bones I had broken, and feeling around my body for a moment with bloodied wet hands, slowly realized that I had just ran straight off a cliff face, hit a huge pine on the way down that flipped me into a cartwheel twice before smashing ass first onto a slightly exposed rockpile. Damnit… and I was almost there having made it about three-forths the way down the mountain.
I tried to move but pain made me almost cry out in agony. I slid myself slightly to the right off of some of the bigger boulders I had landed on onto a softer spot of ground. Before I could even think for a second, I saw both lights headed back down the main trail that was located about 30 feet in front of me. I gasped then held my breath as the lights approached, hearing what sounded like faint garbled walkie talkie radio chatter. I quickly reached into my pocket and switched my phone off, so it wouldn’t make a sound or ping my location. And as the lights got closer and passed in front of me I could finally see what the hell it was that had had me in pursuit for the last 10 minutes. Side note, the typical hike down from Pavilion Point into Silver Plume took at least 30-40 minutes and I had almost made it down with probably a quarter mile or so before I would’ve stepped back into the lights of civilization. But no, now I’m stuck on an angled rocky slope, bleeding all over, not sure the extend of my injuries.
As I stare out in front of me, at the returning chasers, I can see humanoid figures riding on what looks like futuristic motorcycles, kind of. But where are the wheels? Why is their movement so smooth and steady? Also, why aren’t these machines making any noise? Motorcycles and dirtbikes are loud, annoyingly loud, but these seem to make no sound. Am I deaf? Did I lose my hearing in the crash? No wait, did I lose my fucking mind in the SMASH up? What the FUCK is going on? WTF WTF!!! At this moment I’m not sure if I’m even still alive. Are these post-modern demons hovering around to take me on to the next place? I can’t make any sense of it. I can’t believe what I’m seeing. No, not demons. I got it… ALIENS! That’s got to be it. Maybe? Anyways, the “hoverbikes”, which I’ll now refer to them as, passed me by, seemingly unawares of my banged-up presence. It seemed as though their riders had at least abandoned their vehement searching for me. They moved slow and gracefully now, gliding so seamless and smooth versus the frantic and accelerated pace of our prior melee.
I squinted in the darkness to try and make out these riders, blurry vision. They appeared to be wearing what looked like all white or grayish attire, head to toe. I hear more faint radio garble but can’t make out the sounds. Is it English? Foreign? Is it even a language? I don’t know. I exhale my held breath, which I’d been holding for god knows how long. Breathe just breathe, try and calm down for second. A few moments pass…I think. I don’t know how long as I just lay there trying to breathe. In and out, in and out. What the fuck just happened? What the fuck are those things? Who are those people? Before I have any longer to ponder the matter, I see in the trees more hovering dim lights coming back my way. OH JESUS. A few seconds later I see those two hoverbikes, now without any headlights on, hovering thru the forest on the trail below me. A little further away I see two more, then 3 more, further in the distance. Most of the hoverbikes passed quietly and just kept going westward, disappearing thru the woods. I’m not sure how many I counted, maybe 10, maybe 12. I felt like my mind was completely broken. This can’t be happening. Then just off the trail in front of me two of the bikes stop and the riders jump off. WTF.
I can see the dim shape of their outlines against the dark forest. It appears to me now that they’re wearing what looks like chemical hazmat suits. Like something out of the movie Outbreak or Arrival. Big full round-faced Tyvek suits or something. They don’t have any flashlights or anything and it doesn’t appear like they’re still looking for me at all. They stand next to their hoverbikes as the crafts start moving very slowly, their occupants walking alongside. Across the side of the bikes I can see very dim lights slowly flashing across from one end to the other, going from reddish to orangish, to yellowish. Very dim, soft lights. Like - - - - ->. Lights moving from left to right. The bikes hover for a moment and stop. The riders now grab what appears to be staffs of some sort, some kind of tool from the opposite side of their bikes. They both take a few steps from the hoverbikes, bend over and start stabbing at the ground. No wait, they’re digging. It looks like they’re digging. WTF is going on here? I keep watching, squinting my eyes, trying not to breathe. Too afraid to make a sound, staying completely still even though my body, especially my ass bone is screaming in pain, but I won’t move, not even a muscle. After digging for a few seconds, the beings return to the bikes. What looks to be small round compartments running alongside the bikes, think saddlebags but flush and internal, open up and the contents of their shovels are whisked inside these compartments. I’m fucking stunned at this point. Totally overwhelmed and engulfed in fear, agony, dread, you name it. I don’t know what I’m even looking at. Are these people? Like human people? Are they aliens? Are they scientists? I can’t tell with those weird suits they’ve got on.
I watch them work, repeating the cycle. Take samples, insert samples into craft, move along a few feet, take samples, etc. These hoverbikes can even zero point turn, spinning around 180 degrees from time to time. I hear no noise during all this, no talking, nothing, not even forest sounds. At this point, I’m beginning to think I’ve had some sort of psychotic episode with involuntary hallucinations, fear and paranoia. Maybe this is a dream? It doesn’t feel like a dream. It doesn’t feel like hallucinations either, at least not from any drug I’ve tried. Those types of hallucinations have definable characteristics, silver linings, waves, melting, and can be shook off with ease most times. What’s happening right now is none of those things. Maybe this is something new? My mind starts reeling. Am I crazy? Am I not crazy? Is this real? What is real? What the fuck is happening!?! I can’t make any sense of it, any of it. I sit and watch these things, these beings, these people, or whatever, with their bikes, or hovercrafts, or ships or who the fuck knows for quite some time. This is torture.
Who are they? Where did they come from? Why were they chasing me? Did I stumble upon something I shouldn’t have? How did they figure out where I was? The laser, maybe if its aliens they saw the laser. I don’t know. Maybe if its people they saw the laser. Now the fire seems to have had nothing to do with all this, or did it? Madness, this is madness, I’ve gone mad. This can’t be. Everything was just fine before all this. I didn’t take any weird drugs today, I don’t think at least, at least not of my free will. How did it go from innocent meteor shower to all this? Are these military personnel? I’ve heard of other weird conspiracies involving the government doing shady things in these mountains. Is this that? Am I sitting on a top-secret research facility? Why are they digging? Why are they taking stuff? Are they testing for something? And, why the fuck are they wearing those suits? Is this place contaminated… radioactive? Should I be wearing a suit? Should I be drinking the local water? What the FUCK is going on here? This can’t be real. It’s not real. Yeah, this isn’t really happening? No, this isn’t really happening. I know, this isn’t really happening. Just stand up and walk home. It’s all a figment of yer imagination, a mind mess up, a glitch. You’ve hit your head, or depleted your oxygen, or fuck, who knows, but it’s all in your head… yeah. This isn’t really happening. Just stand the fuck up and walk home. Just stand up, up, up now, just move. But I can’t.
This is happening. I know it’s happening. I can feel that it’s happening. It’s really happening. No, no, no, just stand up. They aren’t real. They aren’t even there. You’re crazy. They can’t even see you. They won’t see you. They’re not real. All these thoughts plus a million others racing through my brain. It all seems so clear though. Clarity, yes. As I ponder my predicament I stare up to the sky. WHY!?! Why is this happening to me? And as I look, I see a drone pass over. An honest to goodness recognizable drone, like made by humans. I think I can even hear it. It has lights that blink, red, green, red, green. It passes overhead and out of view. Maybe I’m not crazy. I recognized a drone. If I was crazy things would be getting crazier right? More outlandish and out of control, but that’s a drone. It’s real. It’s grounding, not literally, but it feels grounding, it feels real. I’ll even see a few more as the minutes turn to hours. I wonder what they’re doing. Why these people or things are combing the forest, taking samples? For what? What’s going on? As the hours pass as I witness their workings. I still feel crazy, I keep trying to convince myself that this is all a hallucination and that I can just go home whenever I want. Just stand up, walk through these people, these hoverbikes, and drones. Just walk by, wave, and say goodnight. It’s simple, this isn’t real. So, if it’s not real then I can just go home. But if this isn’t real, then where to home would I be walking? Is home real? FUCK! So, I sit still, focus on my breathing. Slowly in, slowly out, slowly in, slowly out.
As crazy as I feel, there’s a part of me that knows this is actually happening. And that I can’t just stand up, cause then they’ll catch me. Why did they chase me in the first place? This doesn’t seem to be about fire. What would they have done if they had caught me? Scare me, beat me, kill me? I mean, I was literally seconds away from being nabbed. They had closed in on me. The speed they were traveling. The trajectory. The other bike strategically poised to cut me off. All literally seconds away. Then I ran off that cliff edge. Total freak-out accident. Couldn’t have planned it if I wanted to. Total and utter confusion for one quiet second until I hit that tree and with that the pain of reality setting back in hard. Would they have run me down with those hoverbikes? Would they have shot me? Do they even have weapons? I don’t see any weapons, but it is dark and blurry and I don’t know what even looking at now.
Confusion stacked on confusion stacked on this excruciating owWWW pain now. WTF. All these thoughts plus a million more. So, I just lay there and watch. Watched them work, or what appears to be work. I wondered if the hoverbikes were sensing things in the ground and that’s why the workers choose to dig where they did. I wondered if it has sensors, sensors at all. If so, why isn’t it sensoring me, my presence. And these drones flying overhead? I mean I know that cops have had helicopters and drones equipped with FLIR and other sensitive devices that can detect like bank robbers hiding in thick bushes. They’ve had that shit for decades. So why are these obviously superior vehicles not sensing me laying here? Why have I not been caught? If it was so important to chase me from the top of the mountain, why did they eventually give up so easily? Why can’t they see me now?
At one point during all this one of the suits got within 15-20 feet of me, before moving on. Didn’t they see me? I thought for a few minutes that one of these “people” were actually staring right at me. Hard to tell with a devoid masked chemical suit but still. It looked like it was looking right at me for what felt like forever, then they just moved on, digging, grabbing leaves off trees, etc. What the fuck is going on? All these thoughts plus a million more. I focus on my breathing, in/out, in/out. At one point I remember coming up with some mantra, saying it over and over and over and over. In that moment I thought that I would never be able to have another thought outside of that mantra. Funny that now, I can’t even recall what exactly I was saying to myself, over and over and over. I just needed to get through it.
If this is real, I told myself, then time, as I understand time, must be real. And time meant that at some point the sun must rise. If this is real then the sun must rise. I suppose then that I can afford to waste a little more “time” and a little more “sanity” to see if this is actually truly reality, because if this is actually real then the sun must eventually rise. So, I waited, watched, chanted, breathed. Until finally, much to my surprise, I could see the sky shade changing, just a little lighter than the darkness, just a crack of dark blue, then finally blue, then finally the stars started to disappear. Was this all really real? And with the hint of dawn, I heard sound coming from the “whoever whatevers”, a quick chattering sound garble. And then I saw them hovering by, one by one, just as they had come. Going east towards Georgetown. Hovering along the trails, below the treeline. I tried to count as they went by, hoping to note when the last one was finally gone, quickly realizing I didn’t really know how many had come. And so I sat, still perfectly still. And the dawn rose. And still I sat. I had made it this long, I could make it a few minutes longer. To be snagged at this point, caught, would be unforgivable, no matter how painful. And so, the dawn came and went, and the sun rose, and when the sun rose so did I.
When I finally stood up on rubbery limbs I could barely keep my balance. I looked down to see both legs of my pants were completely stained in blood below my knees. I didn’t care. I felt around to my tailbone which now had a golfball sized knot that ached with such ferocity. I didn’t care. As I looked around, I could finally see what had transpired just hours previous. I found my tossed rock hammer and hatchet close by. Laughing on the thought that if I’d held on to them… shit. Finally, I climbed back up to the short cut deer trail that I had run off of, saw the tree that I clipped, missing huge broken branches at knee level. I looked around the area where I had landed at large sharp protruding boulders and other broken branches with points that would have impaled me if I hadn’t landed on the rocks exactly where I did. Holy shit, I should be dead.
I gathered my things and started limping home with mind still confused and reeling, but alive no doubt. I never felt better to be climbing the stairs to my apartment. B-lined straight for my bed, about to pass out from exhaustion when I realized I had an appointment in 2.5 hours to get my haircut. Well at least I can power nap an hour before trying to explain to my hair lady why I can’t even sit in her chair. Oh well.
And that’s just the beginning of a story that would unfold over the next couple of days here in the Colorado Rockies surrounding Silver Plume.

My friend and I made a spreadsheet to see all of our wishes and help us save for Xiao (and we want you to use it!)

10 Investing Principles for beginners:

Poor Indigent Stained Sloppy (PISS)

In terms of humans, the United States Army can easily fit ten pounds of shit into a five pound bag. There is no room to swing a cat in the numerous vehicles I have been subjected to enter. Capacity is the objective, and comfort is meaningless. "We're going to pack you into a cattle car, then pack you into an airplane, and then we are going to pack the sky full of Paratroopers! The old life changed after Assessment and Selection, and I found myself flying "White Tail" (Commercial Air) more often than "Gray Tail (Military). However, flying White Tail is not without issues.
My second deployment to Lebanon was "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles." My initial flight out of Baltimore Washington International (BWI) was canceled without notice. It was time to call the Travel Princess who coordinates all our civilian travel.
Ring! Ring! Ring!
Travel Princess: Hello
Sloppy: Hey Travel Princess. It's Sloppy. My flight out of BWI was canceled.
Travel Princess: That sucks. Need me to book the same flight tomorrow?
Sloppy: No. I have an engagement tomorrow, and I need to fly tonight.
Travel Princess Magic!
Travel Princess: I just found a flight out of Dulles International Airport (IAD).
Sloppy: When do I fly?
Travel Princess: Three hours!
Sloppy Brain: Fuck. My. Life.
Sloppy: Okay. Looks like I will be...
Travel Princess: Having awkward conversations with a Cab Driver!?!
Sloppy: Exactly.
Travel Princess: I have bad news though!
Sloppy: Excellent. What is it?
Travel Princess: I can't get you a window seat. I got you an aisle seat.
Sloppy: So long as I am on the end and not subjected to two strangers.
Travel Princess: Also, you won't be going through London Heathrow. You'll be traveling through Kuwait City International (KWI).
Sloppy: (Frustrated) AWESOME!
That's how it started. Thankfully, my cab driver was more introverted than I and there was zero conversation during the commute to Washington D.C. Much to my surprise, the new-start of my international travels went swimmingly. Unlike BWI, the Transportation Security Authority (TSA) had little interest in the gadgetry in my suitcase.
Minor Rant
Dear Reader, have you ever been told a "Fact" that you did not know, or believe to be true? I am typically that guy for other people, but Troy was that guy for me. He was a former Troop Sergeants Major, and full of absolutely useless knowledge.
Troy: Did you know you cannot hum while holding your nose?
Sloppy: Bullshit!
Pause
Sloppy: Fuck!

Troy: Did you know bleach expires?
Sloppy: Bleach does not expire.
Troy: Yeah, actually, it does.
Sloppy: You're a fucking idiot. Bleach does not expire.
Troy: Bet you lunch it does?
Sloppy: Deal
Detailed Internet Calculations (DIC)
Sloppy: Fuck. What do you want for lunch?
Dear Reader, there are also the moments in which someone tells you a "Fact," but there is no way to scientifically prove that it is, in deed, factual. My "Army work"was uniquely different than the typical "Army work." There are times in which I travel with equipment that peaks the interest of a TSA Agent. I have no issues providing a mundane overview, but I don't have the time, or the authorization to provide detailed insight. Thus, Airport Security can quickly become a lethargic process.
Troy: Did you know TSA Agents try to avoid inspecting luggage with sex toys?
Sloppy: What?
Troy: Like if you have a giant dildo in your bag. They won't check it.
Sloppy: How in the hell do you know that?
Troy: My buddy. He is a TSA Agent and said he never checks bags with sex toys.
Sloppy: That does not mean this is indicative of all TSA Agents.
Troy: No. Probably not. I know they never check my bag though.
Sloppy: Crazy Eye Glare!?!
Troy: Yup. I travel with a dildo.
Dear Reader, I am certain TSA would check your bag with your dildo was nestled tightly to an object that screamed, "I'm a blast at parties." Simply writing, Troy's advice is by no means backed by substantiated fact, but TSA has never asked me to explain my unique gadgets, or the dildo in my carry-on baggage.
Rant Complete
I am not enthusiastic about aisle seats. I don't particularly care for strangers. I found my seat near the end of the aircraft, and the four seats to my left were empty. They also remained empty when the Captain announced they would be closing the doors, and we would be departing in thirty-minutes. I thought I had just won the lottery. Then I seen a mother, Crib-Midget, and Mini-Human approaching. There were four seats, and only three humans, but I felt that someone had just kicked my puppy.
Dear Reader, I have Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). Everything has it's place, and I match everything when I dress. I iron and hand my clothes the day before I wear them. I take great pride in my appearance. My OCD-alarm was pinging when I seen them approach. The Mini-Human was likely around ten years old, and carrying the largest drink Starbucks ever made. They forcefully made their way to their seats, and the Mini-Human plopped down next to me. He set his frou-frou drink down on the flimsy tray-table, and then started jostling around.
I take Tylenol PM as soon as I sit down on an international flight. Sleeping is my way of time traveling. I found myself in a dilemma. My body was telling me to close my eyes and visit the sandman, but my brain was forecasting a catastrophe.
Mini-Human Jostling Around
Sloppy, with the reflexes of a cat and speed of a mongoose, catches the drink as it's about to tip.
Mini-Human: Sorry. Thank you.
Sloppy: No problem.
Second Time
My reflexes are starting to fade, but the cup nearly tips off again as he plays video games on a handheld device.
Mini-Human: Sorry.
Sloppy: No problem. Please just watch it though.
TIME TRAVEL (Thirty-Minutes)
I wake to a very cold sensation on my brand new pants. There was chilled coffee, delicious caramel, and whipped cream all over my crotch area. My facial expressions clearly frightened the Mini-Human, but I knew it was an accident. I told him it was okay. However, I was forced to wait until we got to "cruising altitude" before I made my trip to the bathroom. I was forced to sit and just let the frothy goodness embed it's deliciousness into my outfit.
Cruising Altitude and Failed Un-dirty Clothes (FUC) Sloppy returns to slumber.
I don't recall exactly how long I was sleeping, but I was out-to-the-world. I awoke to a stewardess frantically shaking me, and telling me that I need to address an immediate issue.
Stewardess: Sir. Sir. SIR!
Sloppy: (Groggy) Yeah!
Stewardess: Here. You're baby is crying.
Sloppy Brain: Fuck. My kid is crying.
Sloppy: (Groggy) I'm so sorry.
Sloppy is now holding the last thing anyone should trust him with; another human life.
Sloppy Brain: Wait! Wait! Wait! You don't have a kid. Well, you do, but you don't have a baby, or kid on this flight.
Sloppy: Ma'am. Ma'am. Ma'am!
Stewardess turns!
Sloppy: This is not my baby. I don't have a baby.
Sloppy motions "HERE! TAKE KID NOW" gesture.
Stewardess: I am sorry, but I can't.
Sloppy: What?
Stewardess: I can't take the baby. Where are the parents?
Sloppy looks at empty aisle seats.
Sloppy Brain: Great! Fucking great. You're dream of an "empty aisle" came true, but know you don't know where the mother of this screaming child is.
Dear Reader, I have a baby cradled in my arm like a football, and I don't know where the endzone is, and spiking a football-sized human is not generally a socially acceptable practice. I need to "Heisman" this kid, but had no earthly idea where the mother was, aside from being on the airplane of course. The plane was a great place to start though.
Contrary to what many people would assume, I love the Middle East (ME), and predominately Muslim countries. I love the food, and I love the people. I have a disdain for Muslims whom initiate the lead jellybean exchange with me, but I would have that problem with Christians and Atheists as well. I generally dislike anyone who wishes to expedite my shelf-life by way of supersonic paper-cuts. There are cultural customs that make finding an absentee parent difficult during an international flight, specifically burkas.
The mother was a "ninja," and wore a head-to-toe black burka. I literally didn't know what she looked like. Further complicating my location effort was the fact that she was not alone. There were at least another hundred ladies that shopped at the same Dooey & Burka store.
Stewardess: What was she wearing?
Sloppy: That!
Looks!
Stewardess: (Puzzled) Is that her!?!
Sloppy (Fuck. My. Life Face) NO! She is wearing a black burka. Aside from that, I don't know what she looks like.
Stewardess: My god! This is gonna be challenging.
The stewardess was firm on her stance of not taking the Crib-Midget, but she thankfully assisted during Operation Find Unattended Kid Mother En-route (FUK ME). We, but mostly me, woke up at least thirty people before finding the mother's ass planted in Business Class. I can only imagine what the other ninja ladies thought when I asked them...
Sloppy: Ma'am. Ma'am. Excuse me? Is this your child (Extends human outwards)?
There were a considerable amount of "NO" answers. Worse? Some of the people did not speak English. I wonder what was going through their minds.
Dramatization
Sloppy: English. English English English?
Translation
"Would you like my child?"
"I found this "thing" next to me. Is it yours?"
"Free Baby! Piping hot Free Baby here. Get your Free Baby."
The stewardess had a long conversation with absentee-mother, and she returned to Coach with the rest of the animals. I couldn't see past the eyes, but she looked angry with me. Not only did I rat her out for her stealthy move to Business Class, but I passed off a crying human.
Dear Reader, the rest of the flight was uneventful. The landing and hustle at Kuwait City International was anything but. I was familiar with the layout of the airport, but I was low on time. I had decided to take another attempt at washing my pants. I entered the nearest bathroom and found a line of men, and they were all washing their feet in the sink.
I get it. I understand why they were doing it, but there is no "wait in line" in the Middle East. You, like an asshole, push your way to the front and skip everyone else in line. It's "a way" in the United States, but is not "the way" most Americans practice "wait in line." I got sick of standing in line after about ten men budged. It was my turn.
Sloppy: Excuse me. I was in front of you, and I am going to...
He looks me up-and-down, and then it happened.
Male: At least I didn't piss my pants.
It was perfect English, but I didn't have the time to explain that I didn't piss myself. I just rolled with it. The second cleaning attempt was just as fruitless as the first cleaning attempt. The only thing that made my trip better was chaos in Beirut International (BEY). I arrived, and managed to beat the rush through customs. I was then greeted by a nearly seven foot tall giant named Jimmy.
Jimmy: Whoa! Did you piss your pants?
Sloppy: Not yet. Long story. I have to piss before we roll.
I was more than familiar with the layout of this particular airport, but I was paralyzed with piss-pain. I could barely walk, let alone run, to the bathroom.
Jimmy: Ahh. I will go hold up the line.
It was an odd statement. I was not certain how Jimmy would, "hold up the line," but I would soon find out. The bathroom at Beirut International is immediately to the right after you depart customs. However, it's the size of a small closet. There are two urinals, and one toilet stall. The spacing between the urinal and opposite wall is no more than four feet though. Again, think long, but narrow closet.
I continue the agonizing pee walk and I am a bit disappointed when I see a large line forming near the bathroom. There was "loud chatter" that I didn't understand, and some clearly disgruntled humans. I rounded the corner and nearly pissed myself. Jimmy was in deed "holding up the line." Jimmy's back was firmly planted on the wall to the right, and a flowing stream of yellow piss was arcing across the room, and landing in the urinal to the left. Jimmy was peeing from wall-to-wall. Nobody was going past urinal number one without receiving a golden shower.
Jimmy: (Smile) I got you man. Come in. I'll pinch her off.
Sloppy, like Moses (Kind of) parts pee stream and proceeds to second urinal.
I take a look to the left to get a glimpse of the chaotic line at the entrance. There were loud grumbles of displeasure, but, then I seen an old man. The old man was at least 70 years or older, and his face went from scowl, an onto smile. He then started to clap and I congratulate Jimmy's technique.
Old Man: (Laughing with Arabic Accent) Bravo. Bravo.
Sloppy: That was fucking brilliant.
Jimmy: Yeah. Didn't think you wanted to wait in line. Pulling out a gun would have been too much, so I figure peeing across the room would work.
Sloppy: Good to know for the next time.
That's that Dear Reader. Not an ordinary Military tale, but it was the oddest Military travel tale I have had. I "pissed my pants" with coffee, which ruined them. I was handed a baby that was not mine, and then forced to conduct a Ninja-hunt. I was accused of pissing my pants by men who were washing their feet in sinks. I was then accused of pissing my pants by Jimmy, and then Jimmy saved the day with four feet of arc pissing that was superbly executed. I'd like to thank the Army for this tale, because I don't know if Joe Civilian has experiences like this. Fucking Army!

Cheers,
Sloppy

Palantir Valuation - Opening the Black Box

A comprehensive list of books that will help you think clearly

A comprehensive list of books that might be of interest to people that want to read something that would improve their thinking or some friends?
I have not read many of these, thus I can not personally vouch for all of them or recommend one over the other.
I'm not affiliated with Goodreads, but linked to them since I wanted to include the ratings and they have links to several different sources including libraries if you want to borrow or acquire any one of these, and often some quality reviews.
The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths
by Michael Shermer 3.93 · Rating details · 6,985 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9754534-the-believing-brain
The Believing Brain is bestselling author Michael Shermer's comprehensive and provocative theory on how beliefs are born, formed, reinforced, challenged, changed, and extinguished.
In this work synthesizing thirty years of research, psychologist, historian of science, and the world's best-known skeptic Michael Shermer upends the traditional thinking about how humans form beliefs about the world. Simply put, beliefs come first and explanations for beliefs follow. The brain, Shermer argues, is a belief engine. From sensory data flowing in through the senses, the brain naturally begins to look for and find patterns, and then infuses those patterns with meaning. Our brains connect the dots of our world into meaningful patterns that explain why things happen, and these patterns become beliefs. Once beliefs are formed the brain begins to look for and find confirmatory evidence in support of those beliefs, which accelerates the process of reinforcing them, and round and round the process goes in a positive-feedback loop of belief confirmation. Shermer outlines the numerous cognitive tools our brains engage to reinforce our beliefs as truths.
Interlaced with his theory of belief, Shermer provides countless real-world examples of how this process operates, from politics, economics, and religion to conspiracy theories, the supernatural, and the paranormal. Ultimately, he demonstrates why science is the best tool ever devised to determine whether or not a belief matches reality.
Critical Thinking: Tools for Taking Charge of Your Professional and Personal Life
by Richard Paul, Linda Elder
3.93 · Rating details · 1,082 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17296839-critical-thinking
Critical Thinking is about becoming a better thinker in every aspect of your life: in your career, and as a consumer, citizen, friend, parent, and lover.
Discover the core skills of effective thinking; then analyze your own thought processes, identify weaknesses, and overcome them. Learn how to translate more effective thinking into better decisions, less frustration, more wealth Ñ and above all, greater confidence to pursue and achieve your most important goals in life.
The Thinker's Guide to Analytic Thinking by Linda Elder,Richard Paul
3.89 · Rating details · 163 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19227921-the-thinker-s-guide-to-analytic-thinking
This guide focuses on the intellectual skills that enable one to analyze anything one might think about - questions, problems, disciplines, subjects, etc. It provides the common denominator between all forms of analysis.
It is based on the assumption that all reasoning can be taken apart and analyzed for quality.
This guide introduces the elements of reasoning as implicit in all reasoning. It begins with this idea - that whenever we think, we think for a purpose, within a point of view, based on assumptions, leading to implications and consequences. We use data, facts and experiences (information), to make inferences and judgments,based on concepts and theories to answer a question or solve a problem. Thus the elements of thought are: purpose, questions, information, inferences, assumptions, concepts, implications and point of view. In this guide, authors Linda Elder and Richard Paul explain, exemplify and contextualize these elements or structures of thought, showing the importance of analyzing reasoning in every part of human life. This guide can be used as a supplement to any text or course at the college level; and it may be used for improving thinking in personal and professional life.
The Thinker's Guide to Intellectual Standards by Linda Elder, Richard Paul
4.19 · Rating details · 16 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19017637-the-thinker-s-guide-to-intellectual-standards
Humans routinely assess thinking – their own thinking, and that of others, and yet they don’t necessarily use standards for thought that are reasonable, rational, sound.
To think well, people need to routinely meet intellectual standards, standards of clarity, precision, accuracy, relevance, depth, logic, fairness, significance, and so forth.
In this guide authors Elder and Paul offer a brief analysis of some of the most important intellectual standards in the English language. They look at the opposites of these standards. They argue for their contextualization within subjects and disciplines. And, they call attention to the forces that undermine their skilled use in thinking well. At present intellectual standards tend to be either taught implicitly, or ignored in instruction. Yet because they are essential to high quality reasoning in every part of human life, they should be explicitly taught and explicitly understood.
The Truth Seeker’s Handbook: A Science-Based Guide by Gleb Tsipursky (Goodreads Author) 4.24 · Rating details · 63 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36800752-the-truth-seeker-s-handbook
How do you know whether something is true? How do you convince others to believe the facts?
Research shows that the human mind is prone to making thinking errors - predictable mistakes that cause us to believe comfortable lies over inconvenient truths. These errors leave us vulnerable to making decisions based on false beliefs, leading to disastrous consequences for our personal lives, relationships, careers, civic and political engagement, and for our society as a whole.
Fortunately, cognitive and behavioral scientists have uncovered many useful strategies for overcoming our mental flaws.
This book presents a variety of research-based tools for ensuring that our beliefs are aligned with reality.
With examples from daily life and an engaging style, the book will provide you with the skills to avoid thinking errors and help others to do so, preventing disasters and facilitating success for yourself, those you care about, and our society.
On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not
by Robert A. Burton 3.90 · Rating details · 2,165 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2740964-on-being-certain
You recognize when you know something for certain, right? You "know" the sky is blue, or that the traffic light had turned green, or where you were on the morning of September 11, 2001--you know these things, well, because you just do. In On Being Certain, neurologist Robert Burton challenges the notions of how we think about what we know.
He shows that the feeling of certainty we have when we "know" something comes from sources beyond our control and knowledge.
In fact, certainty is a mental sensation, rather than evidence of fact.
Because this "feeling of knowing" seems like confirmation of knowledge, we tend to think of it as a product of reason.
But an increasing body of evidence suggests that feelings such as certainty stem from primitive areas of the brain, and are independent of active, conscious reflection and reasoning. The feeling of knowing happens to us; we cannot make it happen. Bringing together cutting edge neuroscience, experimental data, and fascinating anecdotes, Robert Burton explores the inconsistent and sometimes paradoxical relationship between our thoughts and what we actually know.
Provocative and groundbreaking, On Being Certain, will challenge what you know (or think you know) about the mind, knowledge, and reason.
The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us
by Christopher Chabris,Daniel Simons 3.91 · Rating details · 13,537 ratings · 704 reviews
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7783191-the-invisible-gorilla
Reading this book will make you less sure of yourself—and that’s a good thing. In The Invisible Gorilla, Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, creators of one of psychology’s most famous experiments, use remarkable stories and counterintuitive scientific findings to demonstrate an important truth: Our minds don’t work the way we think they do. We think we see ourselves and the world as they really are, but we’re actually missing a whole lot.
Again and again, we think we experience and understand the world as it is, but our thoughts are beset by everyday illusions. We write traffic laws and build criminal cases on the assumption that people will notice when something unusual happens right in front of them. We’re sure we know where we were on 9/11, falsely believing that vivid memories are seared into our minds with perfect fidelity. And as a society, we spend billions on devices to train our brains because we’re continually tempted by the lure of quick fixes and effortless self-improvement.
The Invisible Gorilla reveals the myriad ways that our intuitions can deceive us, but it’s much more than a catalog of human failings. Chabris and Simons explain why we succumb to these everyday illusions and what we can do to inoculate ourselves against their effects. Ultimately, the book provides a kind of x-ray vision into our own minds, making it possible to pierce the veil of illusions that clouds our thoughts and to think clearly for perhaps the first time.
Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking
by M. Neil Browne, Stuart M. Keeley
3.94 · Rating details · 1,290 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/394398.Asking_the_Right_Questions
The habits and attitudes associated with critical thinking are transferable to consumer, medical, legal, and general ethical choices. When our surgeon says surgery is needed, it can be life sustaining to seek answers to the critical questions encouraged in Asking the Right Questions This popular book helps bridge the gap between simply memorizing or blindly accepting information, and the greater challenge of critical analysing the things we are told and read. It gives strategies for responding to alternative points of view and will help readers develop a solid foundation for making personal choices about what to accept and what to reject.
On Truth by Simon Blackburn 3.60 · Rating details · 62 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36722220-on-truth
Truth is not just a recent topic of contention. Arguments about it have gone on for centuries. Why is the truth important? Who decides what the truth is? Is there such a thing as objective, eternal truth, or is truth simply a matter of perspective, of linguistic or cultural vantage point?
In this concise book Simon Blackburn provides an accessible explanation of what truth is and how we might think about it.
The first half of the book details several main approaches to how we should think about, and decide, what is true.
These are philosophical theories of truth such as the correspondence theory, the coherence theory, deflationism, and others.
He then examines how those approaches relate to truth in several contentious domains: art, ethics, reasoning, religion, and the interpretation of texts.
Blackburn's overall message is that truth is often best thought of not as a product or an end point that is 'finally' achieved, but--as the American pragmatist thinkers thought of it--as an ongoing process of inquiry. The result is an accessible and tour through some of the deepest and thorniest questions philosophy has ever tackled
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
4.16 · Rating details · 317,352 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=ZNhf1bAIxd&rank=1
In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. The impact of loss aversion and overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the challenges of properly framing risks at work and at home, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning the next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems work together to shape our judgments and decisions.
Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking.
He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Thinking, Fast and Slow will transform the way you think about thinking.
Before You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do What We Do by John A. Bargh (Goodreads Author)
3.97 · Rating details · 788 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35011639-before-you-know-it
Dr. John Bargh, the world’s leading expert on the unconscious mind, presents a “brilliant and convincing book” (Malcolm Gladwell) cited as an outstanding read of 2017 by Business Insider and The Financial Times—giving us an entirely new understanding of the hidden mental processes that secretly govern every aspect of our behavior.
For more than three decades, Dr. John Bargh has conducted revolutionary research into the unconscious mind, research featured in bestsellers like Blink and Thinking Fast and Slow. Now, in what Dr. John Gottman said was “the most important and exciting book in psychology that has been written in the past twenty years,” Dr. Bargh takes us on an entertaining and enlightening tour of the forces that affect everyday behavior while transforming our understanding of ourselves in profound ways.
Dr. Bargh takes us into his labs at New York University and Yale—where he and his colleagues have discovered how the unconscious guides our behavior, goals, and motivations in areas like race relations, parenting, business, consumer behavior, and addiction.
With infectious enthusiasm he reveals what science now knows about the pervasive influence of the unconscious mind in who we choose to date or vote for, what we buy, where we live, how we perform on tests and in job interviews, and much more.
Because the unconscious works in ways we are completely unaware of, Before You Know It is full of surprising and entertaining revelations as well as useful tricks to help you remember items on your to-do list, to shop smarter, and to sleep better.
Before You Know It is “a fascinating compendium of landmark social-psychology research” (Publishers Weekly) and an introduction to a fabulous world that exists below the surface of your awareness and yet is the key to knowing yourself and unlocking new ways of thinking, feeling, and behaving.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38315.Fooled_by_Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4.07 · Rating details · 49,010 ratings
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand.
Philosophy books
Epistemology by Richard Feldman 3.84 · Rating details · 182 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/387295.Epistemology
Sophisticated yet accessible and easy to read, this introduction to contemporary philosophical questions about knowledge and rationality goes beyond the usual bland survey of the major current views to show that there is argument involved. Throughout, the author provides a fair and balanced blending of the standard positions on epistemology with his own carefully reasoned positions or stances into the analysis of each concept. KEY TOPICS: Epistemological Questions. The Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Modifying the Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Evidentialist Theories of Justification. Non-evidentialist Theories of Knowledge and Justification. Skepticism. Epistemology and Science. Relativism.
Problems of Knowledge: A Critical Introduction to Epistemology by Michael J. Williams
3.79 · Rating details · 86 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477904.Problems_of_Knowledge
"What is epistemology or 'the theory of knowledge'? Why does it matter? What makes theorizing about knowledge 'philosophical'? And why do some philosophers argue that epistemology - perhaps even philosophy itself - is dead?" "
In this introduction, Michael Williams answers these questions, showing how epistemological theorizing is sensitive to a range of questions about the nature, limits, methods, and value of knowing.
He pays special attention to the challenge of philosophical scepticism: does our 'knowledge' rest on brute assumptions? Does the rational outlook undermine itself?"
Williams explains and criticizes all the main contemporary philosophical perspectives on human knowledge, such as foundationalism, the coherence theory, and 'naturalistic' theories. As an alternative to all of them, he defends his distinctive contextualist approach.
As well as providing an accessible introduction for any reader approaching the subject for the first time, this book incorporates Williams's own ideas which will be of interest to all philosophers concerned with the theory of knowledge.
Philosophy: The Basics
by Nigel Warburton 3.84 · Rating details · 1,928 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31854.Philosophy
Now in its fourth edition, Nigel Warburton's best-selling book gently eases the reader into the world of philosophy. Each chapter considers a key area of philosophy, explaining and exploring the basic ideas and themes.
What is philosophy? Can you prove God exists? Is there an afterlife? How do we know right from wrong? Should you ever break the law? Is the world really the way you think it is? How should we define Freedom of Speech? Do you know how science works? Is your mind different from your body? Can you define art? For the fourth edition, Warburton has added new sections to several chapters, revised others and brought the further reading sections up to date. If you've ever asked what is philosophy, or whether the world is really the way you think it is, then this is the book for you.
The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/14829260-the-oxford-handbook-of-thinking-and-reasoning
by Keith J. Holyoak (Editor), Robert G. Morrison (Editor)
4.08 · Rating details · 12 ratings
Thinking and reasoning, long the academic province of philosophy, have over the past century emerged as core topics of empirical investigation and theoretical analysis in the modern fields of cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience. Formerly seen as too complicated and amorphous to be included in early textbooks on the science of cognition, the study of thinking and reasoning has since taken off, brancing off in a distinct direction from the field from which it originated.
The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is a comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning.
Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading.
Chapters include introductions to foundational issues and methods of study in the field, as well as treatment of specific types of thinking and reasoning and their application in a broad range of fields including business, education, law, medicine, music, and science.
The volume will be of interest to scholars and students working in developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, education, and linguistics.
Feminist Epistemologies
(Thinking Gender) by Linda Martín Alcoff, Elizabeth Potter 4.14 · Rating details · 43 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477960.Feminist_Epistemologies
Noticed this review by an evangelical:
"I have found this an immensely suggestive book, collecting as it does essays from both prominent and rising figures in feminist philosophy of knowledge--albeit from about two decades ago. I am struck by how little impact feminist thought, even of this high and generally temperate quality, has had on evangelical theology, to the shame of my guild."
-John
The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone - Especially Ourselves by Dan Ariely 3.94 · Rating details · 13,620 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13426114-the-honest-truth-about-dishonesty
The New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality returns with thought-provoking work to challenge our preconceptions about dishonesty and urge us to take an honest look at ourselves.
Does the chance of getting caught affect how likely we are to cheat? How do companies pave the way for dishonesty? Does collaboration make us more honest or less so? Does religion improve our honesty?
Most of us think of ourselves as honest, but, in fact, we all cheat.
From Washington to Wall Street, the classroom to the workplace, unethical behavior is everywhere. None of us is immune, whether it's the white lie to head off trouble or padding our expense reports. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, award-winning, bestselling author Dan Ariely turns his unique insight and innovative research to the question of dishonesty.
Generally, we assume that cheating, like most other decisions, is based on a rational cost-benefit analysis.
But Ariely argues, and then demonstrates, that it's actually the irrational forces that we don't take into account that often determine whether we behave ethically or not.
For every Enron or political bribe, there are countless puffed résumés, hidden commissions, and knockoff purses. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Ariely shows why some things are easier to lie about; how getting caught matters less than we think; and how business practices pave the way for unethical behavior, both intentionally and unintentionally. Ariely explores how unethical behavior works in the personal, professional, and political worlds, and how it affects all of us, even as we think of ourselves as having high moral standards.
But all is not lost. Ariely also identifies what keeps us honest, pointing the way for achieving higher ethics in our everyday lives. With compelling personal and academic findings, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty will change the way we see ourselves, our actions, and others.
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
by Carl Sagan, Ann Druyan (Goodreads Author)
4.27 · Rating details · 59,893 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17349.The_Demon_Haunted_World
How can we make intelligent decisions about our increasingly technology-driven lives if we don’t understand the difference between the myths of pseudoscience and the testable hypotheses of science? Pulitzer Prize-winning author and distinguished astronomer Carl Sagan argues that scientific thinking is critical not only to the pursuit of truth but to the very well-being of our democratic institutions.
Casting a wide net through history and culture, Sagan examines and authoritatively debunks such celebrated fallacies of the past as witchcraft, faith healing, demons, and UFOs. And yet, disturbingly, in today's so-called information age, pseudoscience is burgeoning with stories of alien abduction, channeling past lives, and communal hallucinations commanding growing attention and respect. As Sagan demonstrates with lucid eloquence, the siren song of unreason is not just a cultural wrong turn but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms.
What Is the Name of This Book?
by Raymond M. Smullyan
4.24 · Rating details · 757 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/493576.What_Is_the_Name_of_This_Book_
If you're intrigued by puzzles and paradoxes, these 200 mind-bending logic puzzles, riddles, and diversions will thrill you with challenges to your powers of reason and common sense. Raymond M. Smullyan — a celebrated mathematician, logician, magician, and author — presents a logical labyrinth of more than 200 increasingly complex problems. The puzzles delve into Gödel’s undecidability theorem and other examples of the deepest paradoxes of logic and set theory. Detailed solutions follow each puzzle
The Art of Logic in an Illogical World
by Eugenia Cheng 3.55 · Rating details · 740 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38400400-the-art-of-logic-in-an-illogical-world
How both logical and emotional reasoning can help us live better in our post-truth world
In a world where fake news stories change election outcomes, has rationality become futile? In The Art of Logic in an Illogical World, Eugenia Cheng throws a lifeline to readers drowning in the illogic of contemporary life. Cheng is a mathematician, so she knows how to make an airtight argument. But even for her, logic sometimes falls prey to emotion, which is why she still fears flying and eats more cookies than she should. If a mathematician can't be logical, what are we to do? In this book, Cheng reveals the inner workings and limitations of logic, and explains why alogic--for example, emotion--is vital to how we think and communicate. Cheng shows us how to use logic and alogic together to navigate a world awash in bigotry, mansplaining, and manipulative memes. Insightful, useful, and funny, this essential book is for anyone who wants to think more clearly.
How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age
by Theodore Schick Jr. Lewis Vaughn, Martin Gardner (Foreword)
4.00 · Rating details · 530 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41756.How_to_Think_about_Weird_Things
This text serves well as a supplemental text in:

critical thinking
logic
introduction to philosophy
philosophy of science
epistemology
metaphysics
introduction to psychology
anomalistic psychology
perception and cognition

as well as any introductory science course.
It has been used in all of the courses mentioned above as well as introductory biology, introductory physics, and introductory chemistry courses. It could also serve as a main text for courses in evaluation of the paranormal, philosophical implications of the paranormal, occult beliefs, and pseudoscience.
Popular Statistics
Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data
by Charles Wheelan 3.94 · Rating details · 10,367 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics
Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't by Nate Silver
3.98 · Rating details · 43,804 ratings · 3,049 reviews
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13588394-the-signal-and-the-noise
One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012
New York Times Bestseller
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." -New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." -New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks
by Will Kurt 4.20 · Rating details · 126 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41392893-bayesian-statistics-the-fun-way
Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.
Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.
This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.
By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:

How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them

Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions
by Brian Christian (Goodreads Author), Tom Griffiths (Goodreads Author)
4.15 · Rating details · 19,580 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25666050-algorithms-to-live-by
A fascinating exploration of how insights from computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind
All our lives are constrained by limited space and time, limits that give rise to a particular set of problems. What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? What balance of new activities and familiar favorites is the most fulfilling? These may seem like uniquely human quandaries, but they are not: computers, too, face the same constraints, so computer scientists have been grappling with their version of such issues for decades. And the solutions they've found have much to teach us.
In a dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, acclaimed author Brian Christian and cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths show how the algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others. From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.
The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World
by David Deutsch 4.12 · Rating details · 5,026 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10483171-the-beginning-of-infinity
The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World
In this book David Deutsch argue that all progress, both theoretical and practical, has resulted from a single human activity: the quest for what I call good explanations. Though this quest is uniquely human, its effectiveness is also a fundamental fact about reality at the most impersonal cosmic level – namely that it conforms to universal laws of nature that are indeed good explanations. This simple relationship between the cosmic and the human is a hint of a central role of people in the cosmic scheme of things.

A Helpful Guide to the Georgia Senate Runoff Election Night.

Poor Indigent Stained Sloppy (PISS) Story

Before I get to the story, I'd like to ask you FUckers to head over to MilitaryStories and vote for u/itsallalittleblurry. The man is a masterful storyteller. I use "fuck" a lot, and say some pretty inappropriate things. Why can't you fool a fetus? Because it wasn't born yesterday. See? Grossly inappropriate. Not Blurry though. I feel like I am listening to my father or grandfather, and I always find myself plopping my ass down and listening to the masterfully relayed stories. Again, Please vote for Blurry in 2020. It could very well be the only great thing about 2020.
Rant Complete!
In terms of humans, the United States Army can easily fit ten pounds of shit into a five pound bag. There is no room to swing a cat in the numerous vehicles I have been subjected to enter. Capacity is the objective, and comfort is meaningless. "We're going to pack you into a cattle car, then pack you into an airplane, and then we are going to pack the sky full of Paratroopers! The old life changed after Assessment and Selection, and I found myself flying "White Tail" (Commercial Air) more often than "Gray Tail (Military). However, flying White Tail is not without issues.
My second deployment to Lebanon was "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles." My initial flight out of Baltimore Washington International (BWI) was canceled without notice. It was time to call the Travel Princess who coordinates all our civilian travel.
Ring! Ring! Ring!
Travel Princess: Hello
Sloppy: Hey Travel Princess. It's Sloppy. My flight out of BWI was canceled.
Travel Princess: That sucks. Need me to book the same flight tomorrow?
Sloppy: No. I have an engagement tomorrow, and I need to fly tonight.
Travel Princess Magic!
Travel Princess: I just found a flight out of Dulles International Airport (IAD).
Sloppy: When do I fly?
Travel Princess: Three hours!
Sloppy Brain: Fuck. My. Life.
Sloppy: Okay. Looks like I will be...
Travel Princess: Having awkward conversations with a Cab Driver!?!
Sloppy: Exactly.
Travel Princess: I have bad news though!
Sloppy: Excellent. What is it?
Travel Princess: I can't get you a window seat. I got you an aisle seat.
Sloppy: So long as I am on the end and no subjected to two strangers.
Travel Princess: Also, you won't be going through London Heathrow. You'll be traveling through Kuwait City International (KWI).
Sloppy: (Frustrated) AWESOME!
That's how it started. Thankfully, my cab driver was more introverted than I and there was zero conversation during the commute to Washington D.C. Much to my surprise, the new-start of my international travels went swimmingly. Unlike BWI, the Transportation Security Authority (TSA) had little interest in the gadgetry in my suitcase.
Minor Rant
Dear Reader, have you ever been told a "Fact" that you did not know, or believe to be true? I am typically that guy for other people, but Troy was that guy for me. He was a former Troop Sergeants Major, and full of absolutely useless knowledge.
Troy: Did you know you cannot hum while holding your nose?
Sloppy: Bullshit!
Pause
Sloppy: Fuck!
Troy: Did you know bleach expires?
Sloppy: Bleach does not expire.
Troy: Yeah, actually, it does.
Sloppy: You're a fucking idiot. Bleach does not expire.
Troy: Bet you lunch it does?
Sloppy: Deal
Detailed Internet Calculations (DIC)
Sloppy: Fuck. What do you want for lunch?
Dear Reader, there are also the moments in which someone tells you a "Fact," but there is no way to scientifically prove that it is, in deed, factual. My "Army work"was uniquely different than the typical "Army work." There are times in which I travel with equipment that peaks the interest of a TSA Agent. I have no issues providing a mundane overview, but I don't have the time, or the authorization to provide detailed insight. Thus, Airport Security can quickly become a lethargic process.
Troy: Did you know TSA Agents try to avoid inspecting luggage with sex toys?
Sloppy: What?
Troy: Like if you have a giant dildo in your bag. They won't check it.
Sloppy: How in the hell do you know that?
Troy: My buddy. He is a TSA Agent and said he never checks bags with sex toys.
Sloppy: That does not mean this is indicative of all TSA Agents.
Troy: No. Probably not. I know they never check my bag though.
Sloppy: Crazy Eye Glare!?!
Troy: Yup. I travel with a dildo.
Dear Reader, I am certain TSA would check your bag with your dildo was nestled tightly to an object that screamed, "I'm a blast at parties." Simply writing, Troy's advice is by no means backed by substantiated fact, but TSA has never asked me to explain my unique gadgets, or the dildo in my carry-on baggage.
Rant Complete
I am not enthusiastic about aisle seats. I don't particularly care for strangers. I found my seat near the end of the aircraft, and the four seats to my left were empty. They also remained empty when the Captain announced they would be closing the doors, and we would be departing in thirty-minutes. I thought I had just won the lottery. Then I seen a mother, Crib-Midget, and Mini-Human approaching. There were four seats, and only three humans, but I felt that someone had just kicked my puppy.
Dear Reader, I have Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). Everything has it's place, and I match everything when I dress. I iron and hand my clothes the day before I wear them. I take great pride in my appearance. My OCD-alarm was pinging when I seen them approach. The Mini-Human was likely around ten years old, and carrying the largest drink Starbucks ever made. They forcefully made their way to their seats, and the Mini-Human plopped down next to me. He set his frou-frou drink down on the flimsy tray-table, and then started jostling around.
I take Tylenol PM as soon as I sit down on an international flight. Sleeping is my way of time traveling. I found myself in a dilemma. My body was telling me to close my eyes and visit the sandman, but my brain was forecasting a catastrophe.
Mini-Human Jostling Around
Sloppy, with the reflexes of a cat and speed of a mongoose, catches the drink as it's about to tip.
Mini-Human: Sorry. Thank you.
Sloppy: No problem.
Second Time
My reflexes are starting to fade, but the cup nearly tips off again as he plays video games on a handheld device.
Mini-Human: Sorry.
Sloppy: No problem. Please just watch it though.
TIME TRAVEL (Thirty-Minutes)
I wake to a very cold sensation on my brand new pants. There was chilled coffee, delicious caramel, and whipped cream all over my crotch area. My facial expressions clearly frightened the Mini-Human, but I knew it was an accident. I told him it was okay. However, I was forced to wait until we got to "cruising altitude" before I made my trip to the bathroom. I was forced to sit and just let the frothy goodness embed it's deliciousness into my outfit.
Cruising Altitude and Failed Un-dirty Clothes (FUC) Sloppy returns to slumber.
I don't recall exactly how long I was sleeping, but I was out-to-the-world. I awoke to a stewardess frantically shaking me, and telling me that I need to address an immediate issue.
Stewardess: Sir. Sir. SIR!
Sloppy: (Groggy) Yeah!
Stewardess: Here. You're baby is crying.
Sloppy Brain: Fuck. My kid is crying.
Sloppy: (Groggy) I'm so sorry.
Sloppy is now holding the last thing anyone should trust him with; another human life.
Sloppy Brain: Wait! Wait! Wait! You don't have a kid. Well, you do, but you don't have a baby, or kid on this flight.
Sloppy: Ma'am. Ma'am. Ma'am!
Stewardess turns!
Sloppy: This is not my baby. I don't have a baby.
Sloppy motions "HERE! TAKE KID NOW" gesture.
Stewardess: I am sorry, but I can't.
Sloppy: What?
Stewardess: I can't take the baby. Where are the parents?
Sloppy looks at empty aisle seats.
Sloppy Brain: Great! Fucking great. You're dream of an "empty aisle" came true, but know you don't know where the mother of this screaming child is.
Dear Reader, I have a baby cradled in my arm like a football, and I don't know where the endzone is, and spiking a football-sized human is not generally a socially acceptable practice. I need to "Heisman" this kid, but had no earthly idea where the mother was, aside from being on the airplane of course. The plane was a great place to start though.
Contrary to what many people would assume, I love the Middle East (ME), and predominately Muslim countries. I love the food, and I love the people. I have a disdain for Muslims whom initiate the lead jellybean exchange with me, but I would have that problem with Christians and Atheists as well. I generally dislike anyone who wishes to expedite my shelf-life by way of supersonic paper-cuts. There are cultural customs that make finding an absentee parent difficult during an international flight, specifically burkas.
The mother was a "ninja," and wore a head-to-toe black burka. I literally didn't know what she looked like. Further complicating my location effort was the fact that she was not alone. There were at least another hundred ladies that shopped at the same Dooey & Burka store.
Stewardess: What was she wearing?
Sloppy: That!
Looks!
Stewardess: (Puzzled) Is that her!?!
Sloppy (Fuck. My. Life Face) NO! She is wearing a black burka. Aside from that, I don't know what she looks like.
Stewardess: My god! This is gonna be challenging.
The stewardess was firm on her stance of not taking the Crib-Midget, but she thankfully assisted during Operation Find Unattended Kid Mother En-route (FUK ME). We, but mostly me, woke up at least thirty people before finding the mother's ass planted in Business Class. I can only imagine what the other ninja ladies thought when I asked them...
Sloppy: Ma'am. Ma'am. Excuse me? Is this your child (Extends human outwards)?
There were a considerable amount of "NO" answers. Worse? Some of the people did not speak English. I wonder what was going through their minds.
Dramatization
Sloppy: English. English English English?
Translation
"Would you like my child?"
"I found this "thing" next to me. Is it yours?"
"Free Baby! Piping hot Free Baby here. Get your Free Baby."
The stewardess had a long conversation with absentee-mother, and she returned to Coach with the rest of the animals. I couldn't see past the eyes, but she looked angry with me. Not only did I rat her out for her stealthy move to Business Class, but I passed off a crying human.
Dear Reader, the rest of the flight was uneventful. The landing and hustle at Kuwait City International was anything but. I was familiar with the layout of the airport, but I was low on time. I had decided to take another attempt at washing my pants. I entered the nearest bathroom and found a line of men, and they were all washing their feet in the sink.
I get it. I understand why they were doing it, but there is no "wait in line" in the Middle East. You, like an asshole, push your way to the front and skip everyone else in line. It's "a way" in the United States, but is not "the way" most Americans practice "wait in line." I got sick of standing in line after about ten men budged. It was my turn.
Sloppy: Excuse me. I was in front of you, and I am going to...
He looks me up-and-down, and then it happened.
Male: At least I didn't piss my pants.
It was perfect English, but I didn't have the time to explain that I didn't piss myself. I just rolled with it. The second cleaning attempt was just as fruitless as the first cleaning attempt. The only thing that made my trip better was chaos in Beirut International (BEY). I arrived, and managed to beat the rush through customs. I was then greeted by a nearly seven foot tall giant named Jimmy.
Jimmy: Whoa! Did you piss your pants?
Sloppy: Not yet. Long story. I have to piss before we roll.
I was more than familiar with the layout of this particular airport, but I was paralyzed with piss-pain. I could barely walk, let alone run, to the bathroom.
Jimmy: Ahh. I will go hold up the line.
It was an odd statement. I was not certain how Jimmy would, "hold up the line," but I would soon find out. The bathroom at Beirut International is immediately to the right after you depart customs. However, it's the size of a small closet. There are two urinals, and one toilet stall. The spacing between the urinal and opposite wall is no more than four feet though. Again, think long, but narrow closet.
I continue the agonizing pee walk and I am a bit disappointed when I see a large line forming near the bathroom. There was "loud chatter" that I didn't understand, and some clearly disgruntled humans. I rounded the corner and nearly pissed myself. Jimmy was in deed "holding up the line." Jimmy's back was firmly planted on the wall to the right, and a flowing stream of yellow piss was arcing across the room, and landing in the urinal to the left. Jimmy was peeing from wall-to-wall. Nobody was going past urinal number one without receiving a golden shower.
Jimmy: (Smile) I got you man. Come in. I'll pinch her off.
Sloppy, like Moses (Kind of) parts pee stream and proceeds to second urinal.
I take a look to the left to get a glimpse of the chaotic line at the entrance. There were loud grumbles of displeasure, but, then I seen an old man. The old man was at least 70 years or older, and his face went from scowl, an onto smile. He then started to clap and I congratulate Jimmy's technique.
Old Man: (Laughing with Arabic Accent) Bravo. Bravo.
Sloppy: That was fucking brilliant.
Jimmy: Yeah. Didn't think you wanted to wait in line. Pulling out a gun would have been too much, so I figure peeing across the room would work.
Sloppy: Good to know for the next time.
That's that Dear Reader. Not an ordinary Military tale, but it was the oddest Military travel tale I have had. I "pissed my pants" with coffee, which ruined them. I was handed a baby that was not mine, and then forced to conduct a Ninja-hunt. I was accused of pissing my pants by men who were washing their feet in sinks. I was then accused of pissing my pants by Jimmy, and then Jimmy saved the day with four feet of arc pissing that was superbly executed. I'd like to thank the Army for this tale, because I don't know if Joe Civilian has experiences like this. Fucking Army!
Cheers,
Sloppy

odds calculator forecast video

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Determining probability Probability and Statistics ...

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"Mindmed Forecast/Fundamental Case" [BULLISH] {MMEDF}