Is Bovada still down for everybody? If not, did you need to delete and reinstall that poker client? Does anybody know why it’s down? I think the sports betting is still up, but not poker. Should I start taking my money out?

In Greek mythology, Achilles was the greatest warrior. He even acted like a superstar in his day, holding out on Agamemnon for a max contract.
Of course, Achilles had one fatal flaw. When his mother Thetis dipped him into the river Styx to give him invulnerability, she held him by the heel. Because of that, his heel was still susceptible to injury. That weak spot allowed him to get upset in the Trojan War by a lower-seed named Paris. And thus, we get the term "Achilles heel."
Every great player and every great team has an Achilles heel or two. So with that in mind, let's take a look at the top contenders (listed according to the best title odds on bovada) and determine their potential fatal flaws.
Los Angeles Lakers (+240)
The Los Angeles Lakers are one of the most complete teams we've seen in several years. Not only do they have elite top-end talent, but they'd bolstered the depth chart around them. At this time last year, we may have called their bench or depth their weakness; they responded to that by adding the winner of Sixth Man of the Year (Montrezl Harrell) and the player who finished second for Sixth Man (Dennis Schroder.) Their defense was already elite, and then they added former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol to boot. As in life, the rich get richer.
So does this team have any weakness left? Perhaps. I'd suggest that perimeter shooting is still their biggest wild card. They've been shooting well this season, nailing 38% from beyond the arc as a team (good for 5th best.) At the same time, that's likely to regress. LeBron James is shooting a blistering 41.0% from three (career 34.6). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is shooting 46.8% from three (career 35.3). Kyle Kuzma is shooting 39.3% from three (career 33.5). Having James and Anthony Davis does allow their supporting cast to get open looks, but we'd still expect these numbers to come down to some degree. If that does, then the fact that the team doesn't shoot many threes (28th most) may be more pronounced.
Overall, you can make the argument that the Lakers lack sharpshooters. Maybe they don't need Steph Curry or even Seth Curry, but they could still use a reliable shooting specialist off the bench to break out in case of emergency. J.J. Redick may be available via trade/buyout. Kyle Korver and Allen Crabbe are available on the waiver wire. These shooters may be negative defenders, but the Lakers are SO good defensively that they should be able to withstand a slight hit in that regard. What may be harder to overcome is a cold stretch from three in a key series.
Brooklyn Nets (+375)
The Brooklyn Nets are an incredible collection of superstar talent, with two of the greatest scorers we've ever seen in Kevin Durant and James Harden and one of the greatest enigmas we've ever experienced in Kyrie Irving. Coupled with Joe Harris, shooting/offense is clearly NOT the problem here.
It doesn't take a basketball expert or even a dumb redditor like me to realize the bigger concern is the defensive end. The Nets' defense is softer than Charmin. Right now, the team ranks 27th in defensive rating, and that number doesn't show many signs of slowing down. Capable defensive-minded forwards are needed here, desperately, especially when the team matches up with some elite SF-PF talent in the playoffs. This post details the situation and potential fixes with more detail, but some potential defenders available include Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Andre Roberson, Noah Vonleh, Dewayne Dedmon, or potential trade/buyout guys like Tony Snell and Trevor Ariza.
Los Angeles Clippers (+550)
The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the best rosters in the NBA. Of course, that was also true last season. Last year's team had an abundance of talent, which tends to happen when you add two stars to a team that had gone 48-34 the year before. They looked and acted the part of a title contender as well -- finishing in the top 5 in offense and defense and roaring to a 3-1 lead over Denver. Unfortunately for them, it's best of seven.
A lot of the problems that plagued last year's disappointment were related to chemistry issues on and off the court. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell had developed a great rhythm as to-go scorers, and now they were forced to take a step back. Worse yet, their skill set wasn't suited to being 3+D sidekicks. Harrell may be gone, but the "fit" issues with Lou Williams remain. He's still a good scorer, but he's a liability if he doesn't have the ball in his hands. He's off to an even rockier start to this season, logging a - 3.0 box plus/minus so far. Now at age 34, there's a real concern that he's trending towards being a net negative player, especially in this current role. The team should float offers for him now before he lingers too long on the roster and starts to resent his place in the hierarchy.
Milwaukee Bucks (+700)
The Milwaukee Bucks followed up a disappointing postseason with a spectacular offseason. They not only re-signed superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they brought in some extra help for him with Jrue Holiday and Bogdan Bogdanovic and --
Wait, what was that? The Bogdanovic signing got blocked? Oh right.
It feels like ages ago, and some may think it was meaningless in hindsight. Bogdanovic hasn't lit the world on fire in Atlanta, and the Bucks will eventually get back to a 1 or 2 seed no matter what. Still, the limited depth at the wing will be an issue for Milwaukee at some point or another.
That issue is most likely to rear its head in the playoffs, because the Bucks tend to play a slightly different way in the postseason. Over the last few seasons, Giannis has played limited minutes as a smallball center in the regular season -- 7%, 27%, 23%, 4% this year (according to basketball-reference.) In the postseason, that tends to expand -- he was at 43% and 35% the last two years. And if you're ultimately playing Giannis "up" as a smallball 5 often, then that means you need to surround him with talented wing players. Pat Connaughton and Donte DiVincenzo have played well, but they're not proven yet. If the plan is to keep Giannis at the 4 more often (with Bobby Portis in tow), then that's a formula that hasn't been proven yet in the postseason yet either. The Bucks may have to figure out answers on the fly, which makes it crucial that Coach Mike Budenholzer is able to adjust accordingly.
Philadelphia 76ers (+1700)
Doc Rivers and his top-notch assistant coaches have done a great job unlocking the potential of the Philadelphia 76ers. They're unleashing Joel Embiid (29.3 PPG) like a kaiju, watching with glee as he smashes through the undersized world of the modern NBA.
That formula -- Embiid surrounded by improved shooting -- clearly works well. It may be enough to power through the playoffs and make the Finals. Still, I wonder if the Sixers need to develop a counter-punch. They don't have a proven Plan B. Right now, their backups at center are traditional big man Dwight Howard and young Tony Bradley, who's decent but not a spacer himself. They haven't been playing much "smallball" right now, with Tobias Harris and Mike Scott both logging only about 4-5% of their minutes at center.
We've seen in the playoffs that "one trick ponies" -- like arguably Giannis on Milwaukee and James Harden on Houston -- can be gameplanned against in the postseason. It's helpful if you have a few more tricks in your bag a la Felix the Cat. Going forward, it may be worth experimenting more with smallball lineups, either for the postseason or in the event of an Embiid injury.
Boston Celtics (+1800)
Coach Brad Stevens is a fan favorite and a media darling. And no doubt about it, he's a legitimately great coach. That said, there may be a false impression about him. Whenever you have a young coach, there's a natural inclination to presume he's some type of offensive mastermind. In reality, he tends to be more defensive minded and disciplined and doesn't run as much of a run-and-gun offense as some of his peers. In the Brad Stevens era, the Celtics' offense has ranked: 18th, 10th, 8th, 18th, 10th, 4th, 9th (for an average of about 11th.) They haven't finished in the top 10 in terms of pace since 2015-16. This isn't anything new for Stevens, whose success at Butler University also came about from good defensive teams. Oftentimes, his offense can stagnate and fall into iso-ball.
Given that, it's going to be a challenge for the Celtics' offense to hum back into the top 5 range that they'd need to win a title. Great players can manufacture offense on their own, but there's been a talent drain over the last few years here in Boston. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are great, but they can't do it alone. The Celtics lack a third star. Ideally, someone who can get his own shot, but also run a good functional halfcourt offense.
Of course, that was supposed to be Kemba Walker. He's the type of guard who can get his own shot a la Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas before him. But with the Celtics, Walker has never looked 100%. He hasn't been distributing like a top end PG. He's the third banana that's not quite ripe yet. From the Celtics' POV, they have to ask: is this issue going to get better? Or worse? If Walker rounds into form, great. But if he continues to decline into his 30s, then they may need to proactively find someone to replace him. Bradley Beal will be on the market soon, C.J. McCollum may be "gettable." The Celtics have enough big contracts and enough prospects to be in the mix for some of these trade targets; Danny Ainge needs to determine whether he needs to cash in some chips sooner than later.
Utah Jazz (+1800)
The Utah Jazz had a bumpy ride last year, from Mike Conley's slump, to Bojan Bogdanovic's injury, to all the drama about Rudy Gobert and COVID. This year, it's been a completely different story; the team's been red hot all season long. Consider this: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, and Royce O'Neal are ALL hitting over 40% from three, and Jordan Clarkson isn't far behind them at 39.2%. If their shots keep falling like this, then perhaps they can sustain their top 5 offense and their overall top seed.
Still, the Utah Jazz can call upon their Mormon/christian roots and emphasize charity. That is, the charity stripe. The Jazz don't get to the line often enough. For a high volume scorer, Donovan Mitchell doesn't draw a huge amount of contact (getting 4.4 FTA per game.) For his part, Jordan Clarkson is borderline allergic to the line (1.6 FTA per game despite hitting 97% of them.) The fact that the Jazz don't generate "easy" points at the free throw line makes them more reliant on shot-making. They've been able to do that this season. So far, so good.
Of course, "good" is not the goal -- we're going for "great" here. For Donovan Mitchell to truly take an MVP leap, he needs to be getting to the line at least 7-8 times a game. It won't necessarily be easy, either. He's not a big wing, so it's harder for him to bully his way through traffic and absorb contact. He also has a true center in Rudy Gobert who can clog the paint at times. That said, it'd still be helpful if Quin Snyder and company can encourage him and Clarkson to get to the line a little more often.
Denver Nuggets (+2200)
Although the Denver Nuggets are only 12-10, Nikola Jokic is getting his due as a legitimate MVP candidate right now. As long as the team has a superstar like the Joker and a fire breather like Jamal Murray, they have a puncher's chance of winning a round or two in the playoffs.
That said, the supporting cast still leaves something to be desired. In particular, Gary Harris may not be good enough. He had a great reputation early on as a 3+D guy, but he hasn't backed that up over the last few years. He's shooting 33.3% from three right now, which marks the third season in a row that he's been below 34%. He's not a good rebounder, he's not a great playmaker, and he may be overrated as a defender.
Coach Mike Malone continues to have faith in Harris, trotting him out for 30+ minutes a night. And to his credit, he's playing a little better than he did last year. Still, when push comes to shove in the postseason, this team needs its supporting cast to excel in order to beat teams like the Lakers and Clippers. The Nuggets probably could have put a package together to get Victor Oladipo, and they may be able to get Bradley Beal. It's about time the team started to think about those big swings.

6-point Teasers

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
previous week 14 post
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

• Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
  
• Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
  

It is not recommended to tease game totals
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). It's not a very large sample size, but it might be worth keeping an eye on. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

• For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
• Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
• Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

There were 10 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 5-5. These teasers have been successful so far this season, it was time to regress back.
There were 2 teams that fit our 10pt teaser criteria and they went 2-0.
 
The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
Tennessee -8	Win
Cincinnati +3	Loss
NY Giants +3	Loss
Chicago +1.5	Win	Win
Kansas City -7.5	Win
Las Vegas +3	Loss
New Orleans -8	Loss
Wahington +3	Win
Pittsburgh +2	Loss	Win
Cleveland +3	Win

 
Based on the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. Since u/blackjack_counter used Bovada's closing lines, I will continue to use it. You can verify these lines at sbrodds.com.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
 

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	48-13	78.7%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	22-5	81.5%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	16-0	100.0%

 
**This week we finally see that the underdog teasers fall back down to match previous seasons. Hopefully things turn around but I think its a good sign to be more cautious with underdog teasers. **
 

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada's closing line.
As of Thursday afternoon, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
 
Green Bay -8.5
Indianapolis -7.5
New England +1.5
Chicago +3
Dallas +3
New Orleans +3
 
If you wanted to use Wong's additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, there are 3 games ( New England, Chicago, Dallas) that match the criteria.
 
Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
Tennessee as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 4-1 as a 6pt teaser
Indianapolis as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 3-0 as a 6pt teaser
New England as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 1-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Chicago as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 11-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Dallas as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 2-3 as a 6pt teaser and toal < 49
New Orleans as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-1 as a 6pt teaser
 
It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 48-11, where Bovada has it at 48-13 for this season. That is a slightly better win rate than Bovada's final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

 
I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 223-66-2 (77.2%)
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 177-51-2 (77.6%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 76-18-4 (80.9%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 63-16-3 (79.7%)
 
If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong's original criteria is home favorites):
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 56-16-3 (77.8%)
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 47-15-2 (75.8%)
 
The game total doesn't seem to make a major difference, but Stanford Wong's original criteria is a game total < 49 points.
 

Round Robin of all matching games

There has been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.
For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.
I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet.
 
Good Luck this week.

With the 2020 tax year coming up, i figured i would offer a quick tip for those who use Bovada. If you are concerned with how taxes might affect you this year, or if you even plan to report them, you can utilize the chat help on Bovada, and they will send you a spreadsheet of all your deposits and withdrawals for a specified time frame. It is not necessarily your winnings and loses, more of your withdrawals and deposits. Still nice to know because then you can see how much you’re up or down. hope this helps!

Preface
Let's take a quick journey back to March, when the absence of major-market sports caused degens everywhere to turn to betting Korean Baseball, Madden Sims, and even weather markets to get their gambling fix. Among these, Russian Table Tennis emerged from the depths of the motherland, becoming popular on books of all sizes.
Nobody knows much about these games. Are Russia Liga Pro games fixed? Probably. Personally, I theorize that the games aren't necessarily fixed, but that each night, the Russian Mafia feeds winning players while the others watch. Why else would they be motivated to try? The league has no playoffs and no apparent prizes for top performers.
The games feature players from apparent grandpas with white hairs and knee braces to young boys who hardly look old enough to drive. They are played in a small room with tarped walls, with only the scorekeeper and players in view. The league is practically made to be bet on, and with over 100 twenty minute games a day, there's plenty of opportunities for aspiring degenerates to get the rush of gambling without sitting through 90-minute soccer matches and three hour-long tennis matches.
Now, why should you take advice from me? I've maintained about a 78% record on my Russian TT picks, and have doubled my bankroll multiple times over. I've been banned from a few books for "sharp action," and had my table tennis limited on others. Feel free to PM me to get access to the discord where I post all my picks for free ;) But enough of that, let's talk about my betting strategy.
Step 1: Narrow Down the Slate
Before you even sign in to your book, I recommend narrowing down the upcoming games within the next ~3 hours on Flashscore. Don't worry about the odds at this point, simply pick the games that stand out to you. Go down the list, and click on each game to view the stats for the matchup. When you see a game you like, simply click the checkbox next to it and it will be added to the "My Games" section for easier access. When looking for games to bet on, I look for two main criteria. In order of importance:

• Head to Head Results - This is my most important criteria when selecting games to bet on. In most cases, I only take games where one opponent is clearly dominating the H2H category. I look for games where one player has won AT LEAST 4 of the last 5 games head to head, and preferably at least 8 of the last 10 games head to head. As a rule of thumb, if the recent H2H look solid but the longer-term head to head is split between the players, avoid betting that game. If there are less than five previous meetings between the players, I recommend avoiding the game. Remember, we want to bet high-probability games to beat the house edge. If you are unsure about a matchup, avoid it. There are plenty of other games to bet on, so don't force it. Here is an example of a game with a great H2H record. Molodstov has won all five of the recent meetings, and nine of the previous ten. Here is an example of a game with a bad H2H record. While Poletaev has an advantage having won six of the previous ten meetings, Nikiforov has won three of the most recent five. Avoid betting on games like these!
• Overall Form - Once you've checked off the head to head category, check out the players' recent non-H2H games. Look at their most recent ten matches rather than just the previous 5. If their form is mostly similar, such as this example where both have a similar number of wins in their previous ten, then the bet meets the criteria. Another possibility is that the player that has dominated in H2H is in significantly worse form than their opponent, such as here. In this situation, avoid betting the game. The best-case scenario is when the player who has dominated H2H is in significantly better form than their opponent, who may have a losing record over the previous ten or be on a losing streak. In this example, Kutuzov has dominated head to head, and is in significantly better form than Migalov, who is on a 10 game losing streak. We would take action on Kutuzov here. As a rule of thumb, never bet on a player on a 5+ game losing streak to win, and vise versa.

Go through the slate and look for games that meet these two criteria. Don't worry about the odds at this step, simply short-list the games you'd like to bet!
Step 2: Making the Bets
Once you have your shortlist, it's time to place your bets. One important thing to keep in mind is that it's perfectly fine to take a juiced line to get a bet you're perfectly confident in. Often times, I play lines that are as low as -270 to get a moneyline bet that I like. When we're betting heavy favorites, your win percentage should be at least 70% to stay consistently profitable. I typically bet 2 units on most straight plays, though you can play around with your unit size to see what works best for you. Consistency is key!
Often times, you will find that the lines on the games you've picked simply have too low odds. In this case, don't give up on it yet! There are a few strategies you can use to still take action on these games while not having to risk a significant amount. Keep in mind, not all books will offer these options. Bovada is one of the worst books to use for table tennis! Bet365 is my favorite, as they have the most options for action beyond only moneyline bets.

• Parlay Favorites - You can parlay two of your selections together to get it down to very good odds, and often times even plus-value odds! Some books will only allow you to parlay games from the same league (Liga Pro), others will only let you parlay from separate leagues (ex. 1 game from Setka Cup, 1 game from Liga Pro). If your book lets you parlay Table Tennis, you have a great tool at your disposal, use it! If you usually bet 2U on your straight bets, I recommend betting only 1.5 on parlays, as you are spreading the risk over two games instead of one, even if they are heavy favorites.
• Play -1.5 Sets - Be careful with this one! Most books will let you play -1.5 sets at odds between -105 and -145. Make sure you look at the H2H scores before placing a bet on this prop. If the player you're betting on usually wins 3-2, avoid this bet. If he is winning 3-1 and 3-0 the majority of the time, then this bet makes sense. Use your judgment here! For this bet to hit, you need your player to win with a score of either 3-1 or 3-0.
• Play the Under - Most books will give you an oveunder on total points. If you're really confident on your player to dominate, you can take the under (total will typically be between 72.5 and 76.5). This is usually the riskiest of the options, as even a set score of 3-1 can hit the over if the game is close. I typically do not recommend playing the under, unless it is a particularly high number (74.5 or above) and the player typically wins 3-0 in head to head.

Step 3: Enjoy the Games, Reverse Jinxes are Key!
Unless your book offers you a live stream, it's often hard to find a good stream to watch Liga Pro games. If you're hell-bent on watching the game, I recommend using sportplus(dot)live, though they are inconsistent with their TT streams working. I usually keep track of the live scores on FlashScore. Now, when you're watching these games, NEVER, not even for a second, get confident that your bet is going to win. This is how you get screwed. I cannot stress enough how many times I've seen -300 or lower favorites go up 2-0, only to blow a 9-5 or such lead in the third set and get reverse swept. If you want to win your bets, you must be consistently reverse-jinxing Vladimir or Pavel or whoever you've bet on. He's up 10-5? Screw him. He's going to choke. He gives up a point? Screw him and everything he stands for. This mindset will work you wonders, trust me. No positivity until your bet wins. The moment you become confident, they fuck up - it happens every time!
Closing
I hope this guide is helpful to my fellow degens out there. I will likely publish a second edition discussing Live Betting tactics and other betting strategies I use to pick lower-juice plays in the near future, but this should be a great starting point for anyone looking to make some money betting Russian Table Tennis. As always, best of luck! Feel free to PM me or comment with any questions.

Hi guys, I’m still new to bovada and still getting used to it. Anyways I was able to withdraw some of my winnings the first time & it was in my account within hours about a day ago. I got lucky later on into the night & tried to make another withdraw.. this time it’s telling me about a scheduled arrival time for 2 more days. Is this normal & they have a cool down period for withdrawals?

Alvin Kamara: 5+ receptions, 44+ receiving yards
Latavius Murray: 8+ carries, 35+ rushing yards
Darren Waller: 5+ receptions, 41+ receiving yards
Total Odds: +1150
You could tack on a Kamara or Murray TD if you want but I felt these odds were PLENTY good enough already.
This may be the biggest steal I've ever had, kamara is likely to be heavily involved in the pass game with Michael Thomas out. Latavius Murray may see more running due to this, and even if not he had 15 carries for 48 yards last game against a far better Buccaneers run defense.
Expect Darren Waller to reach those marks easily as Carr's prime target (led team in routes run and receptions last week) against a weak Saints secondary.
I missed a +900 4 leg parlay yesterday by FOUR yards on CMC which would have hit had he not got injured. Hope I can heal my wounds here.
Edit: sorry this is on bovada, I'm doubling down you bunch of damn degens
Edit 2: you can also lower Kamara to 34+ receiving yards for +825 if you'd like to be a bit safer
Final Pre-Game edit: keep in mind this is still a 6 leg parlay and not to empty your bankroll into it. Do your own research and make sure you like what you're doing, don't just listen to some random stranger on the internet. BOL to everyone.
One more edit to anyone still trying to make this bet: to get the same odds now (7:00 pm EST) please refer to this comment for the new stats needed

End of first half edit:

Waller - 5 rec, 54 yards (CASHED)
Murray - 3 carries, 14 yards (5 carries, 21 yards needed), expecting Murray to get more carries in second half with fresher legs than Kamara.
Kamara - 2 receptions, 23 yards (3 receptions, 21 yards needed)
This is gonna be a nail biter boys

Edit - KAMARA CASHED

Latavius Murray still needs 5 carries and 21 yards. These holding calls are killing this drive and allowing for no run. I did not bank on the saint playing from behind
Saints D pls

End of 4th quarter edit

No change, kamara and Waller both covered, but the Saints D look like they gave up after the first 20 minutes. Not a great outlook :/
Literally a broken tackle every single play. Saints can't get someone down at FC.
EDIT: FUMBLE!!!! WE HAVE FUCKING LIFE LETS GOOOOOOO HUGGEEEEE
Edit: well, not looking great unfortunately. It was a great ride everyone and I'll post one of these again next week, more likely I'll take players from a bunch of different games Sunday. I am sorry to disappoint today. We may have lost the battle but we will not lose the war.
This was a lot of fun and I'd be happy to make a discord to follow one like this every so often is people wanted.
edit
Hey maybe Latavius will get some garbage time carries
Meme
Thanks for nothing Jenkins

Final Edit

Wild ride boys. Never imagined the Saints playing from behind like that and their defense getting absolutely steamrolled. Definitely gonna start doing more of these as it was a lot of fun, let's just all remember to keep low bets on these things and we can have some fun.
Remember that we only need around 1 out of every 10 of these types of picks to break even as well. I'll make a discord for live discussion next time too, and I'll put up my pick history for this nfl season
Here's the discord link for anyone that wants to discuss the next pick to be made. I'll post it in this sub with the next pick as well.
Maybe it was never about the bet, maybe it was about the friends we made along the way

So, I've been here a couple of times. I went clean for about 3 months back in August of this year. I then started sports betting only. It went well actually. I netted positive in a month's worth of entertainment. That's a huge win.
Guess what though. I see my bank roll on Bovada ($500). I research prop bets to bet on for NFL today (Hawks vs Eagles), while doing that, I opened one of the live blackjack table to see suckers lose minimum $100 hands on my second screen. I think you know what's about to happen after.
Went to a smaller minimum table ($25). Played for about an hour, stayed even. They shut down live tables for maintenance. This takes about half hour. Guess what, I still wanna play blackjack. I went and played the automated two decker. Got up to $600, after about half hour I tilt bet and lost it all on a couple of $200 hands.
FUCK! I grabbed my hat that I was wearing, squeezed the brim as hard as I could and punched my couch (closest thing next to me). Anxiety.. I then realize this isn't me. It doesn't end here though.
The live tables are back, I see this kid on a solo table. He's on a hot streak. Time to transfer (uh-oh). Transferred $100, $100 turned into $200, eventually transferred $500. Did a solo table myself. I HIT BIG!
My bank roll is $2500. No way the wife is gonna be mad at me when I transfer the money back and then some.
$2500 went to $2400, $2400 went to $2000, then $1500, $1000, $0.
My heart sank. I realize I'm a different person when I'm in front of the screen of a live table. Something overcomes me. This isn't me. I knew very well to stay away from table games. I knew the consequences. The disease takes over my body and mind. I can't control my actions. Literally, I'm fully aware of the downsides.
Now,
End of the month, bills are here. Mortgage, quarterly city water bill that I held off on, credit card (that we pay off every month), cable, electricity, phone, etc etc. I'm on tilt mode. This shit is so hard, I even she'd a little tear after it all. It's not even the amount really, I have thousands in the bank and investments. It's the sad truth that I can't over come this disease. I just can't control this demon.
I feel defeated. I don't know what to do. I haven't slept in almost 24 hours. It's 8 in the morning and I'm posting a sob story on the internet because I have issues from 1st world problems.
What can I do? How do I get help? How do people go cold turkey? Gambling makes my life very happy. I feel complete. Without it, life is a drag. Even if you're just a lurker, I hope you stay strong. Don't be like me, I'm selfish and greedy for the rush. I care for nothing when I'm gambling.
Have a blessed day.

There are plenty of posts about this but I still am not sure exactly how to itemize losses / what is adequate proof. I’ve withdrawn about $3,000 from Bovada this year but have deposited around $8,000. So all in all I’m down about -$5,000 on the year. Do I have to itemize every single individual bet I’ve made this year if I want to offset my $3,000 in winnings with my $5,000 in losses? That seems absurd given I’ve probably made thousands of bets this year to arrive at that -$5000 number. Will monthly net statements on Bovada suffice? Also how likely is it that I would even get audited for $3,000 in “winnings”?

The rollover on a bonus of $10 is a total of $550 (which is the deposit made of $100 + the bonus of $10 multiplied by 5 which is the rollover amount on our 10% bonus) for the rollover completion we take into account the smallest amount between your risk and win amount every time you place a wager (please note that only sports betting counts for rollover casino action does not).
After reviewing your account we see that you have never gone down to zero balance between your deposits, this actually means that the rollover on each of your deposits is still active, if you had lost the deposit completely the rollover is reset, but in this case it does not apply, Having said that according to our records you have completed a total of $304.82 in rollover since your first deposit on 7/17/2020, the total amount of rollover on your account, which is coming from your 3 deposits with bonuses and the cash boost we provided for the return of major sports is $1855, which means that at the moment you have $1550.18 left to complete in rollover for your account.
THE ABOVE IS FROM AN EMAIL. I JOINED WHAT I THOUGHT WAS A REDUCED JUICE CASH-BACK SITE WITH NO ROLLOVER. THEY ADD A $10 BONUS, UNLESS YOU UNCHECK A BOX ON THE MAIN SITE, NOT THE MOBILE SITE. NOTE THAT DEPOSITS ALLOW CASINO AND SPORTS BOOK, BUT IN THE FINE PRINT, CASINO DOES NOT COUNT TOWARDS ROLLOVER. AT INTERTOPS, 2 SEPARATE ACCOUNTS ARE REQUIRED, AT BOVADA ACTION COUNTS IN A WEIGHTED WAY, DEFINED IN THE BONUS, NOT FINE PRINT. My deposits were roughly $100 each time (bitcoin deposits make it hard to be exact). So 3 deposits with $30 required $1855 in betting, a 60x rollover.
AVOID THIS SITE, NOTE FURTHER THAT UNLIKE BOVADA, ONE CAN NOT FORFEIT THE BONUS WHEN YOU ARE AT SAY $.14, or $.97 too small for a bet. So rollover keeps adding up, despite losing your stake.
I am a big boy and expect to lose, but never even having the slightest chance at making a Withdrawal is too much. You all know the big names, stray at your own detriment. I welcome feedback from anyone who has either positive or negative feedback.
Dorleans15

hey ladies and goyms,
My friend and I used to go to casinos and play blackjack or craps and hope to win. Usually bring $300 and MAYBE leave with 400 or nothing at all. He used to come over and we'd stay up playing bovada and doing live blackjack tables because it'd be more fun and the drink service at my house is instant.
Well Covid killed that. So I'll now remote him in and do a screenshare. For him, it's more fun to watch people burn their money in a fire than to play, so works for me. We'd do this maybe once a month. Well I noticed in June a charge on my card that I did not authorize, I checked to see if it was bovada - it wasn't, and I cancelled it. Bovada sends me an email saying that was their money. rectify the situation but now bovada only let's me do bitcoin deposit.
July 2 say 1130pm after I was already drunk, my $100 USD -> bitcoin of came in after a week of waiting. I transferred that over to my Bovada account and since I was new bitcoin customer got a deposit bonus of $20. I said fuck it cool. That night we play live dealer and I turn that $100 -> $400. Cool, That can just chill for the next few days. Got drunk July 3rd and played blackjack and got it up to $4k. Holy fuck I gotta pull it out ASAP.
Well thanks to my dumb click of the deposit bonus, there were conditions I had to meet before i could withdraw the money. 500x my initial deposit. I was only 28% through that. Fuck. I was drunk and hopefully I was wrong so I'll just look at the morning when I'm sober.
Wake up, tell my wife "Holy shit I won $4,000!!! But I am not sure if I can withdraw it..." So we research it and fuck, yep, have to wager $50k. I found a loop hole, if you do sports bets, you can wager 20x and pull out. so I did a test on the Nathans Hot Dog champs. Put $800 on Joey to win. Won it. The needle did not move. I guess since I won the 4k playing blackjack, I had to keep doing it.
So I started spite gambling. instead of my original $5 then $10 then $15 bet cycle, I started doing 50,100,150. Kept winning. so I started doing 500, 1000, 1500. Kept winning. I got it up to 15k and was 95% of the way through.
K fuck you guys I want this over. $2,500 on one hand. Win or lose, I'm still over the $100 I put in, right? I get 7,7 and dealer shows 6. SPlit.
hands:

• $2,500 7,7
• $2,500 7,7

Are you fucking kidding me? Split again.

• $2,500 7,7
• $2,500 7,7
• $2,500 7,7
• $2,500 7,7

FUCK ME.
Dealer turns over card and he's got 6,5. hits. 3. Needs a 7... sorry bro.
Hits a 10. Dealer has 24. I WON I WON I WON I WON
I fuck aroud a bit more and make it to $30k. Lose down to $20k(take that hubris).
Options with Bovada is you can take out $3000 USD with $100 penalty every 3 weeks or take under 20k in bitcoin with no penalty immediately. I took that even though i have no clue how to handle it. I just didn't want to gamble with it.
Wife says, think you can do it again ? so I did another 100 ad turned it into 3k pulled that into cash.
I then did it again(over a few weeks) and turned it to 1k put that into bitcoin and I haven't gambled in 4 days. I aim to keep it that way.
My dad died in May of COVID-19 with no will, so maybe this was divine intervention. I'd still rather my dad over the money though...

I wanted to provide a definitive guide for those trying to find the quickest and cheapest way to get their winnings/initial deposit out of various poker sites through the means of cryptocurrency.
This guide does not recommend cryptocurrency trading and even if you follow all of these steps, there is still a risk for currency fluctuations. It took a lot for me to figure this out and I wanted to pay it forward and help those in the future learn this valuable information. I take no responsibility for the accuracy of this guide, but I will say this is the method I now use. Various state laws can make each step more difficult. However, this method is tailored to the strictest of laws that affect Cryptocurrency issued by New York state.
Ok, so you got some money and want to get it out of a poker or gambling site. Checks are offered, but who has time for that 4 week turnaround on what could be a bad check. So you have decided to get into Cryptocurrency. Here is how the money gets to your bank.
Poker site -> Wallet -> Exchange -> Bank.
1st Step - Getting the money out of your poker account. So you request a withdrawal in cryptocurrency. But which currency? There is Bitcoin (the original), Bitcoin Cash (the fork), Ethereum (New Cool Kid), Tether or Dai (stablecoin) Bitcoin SV, Litecoin, etc.... There are benefits to each currency. Bitcoin is the original and most well known. It is the most traded by far with a market cap (total value) more than all other cryptocurrencies combined. There is also a well established group of people holding bitcoin as an investment to the future. However, Bitcoin also has the most fees and slowest transaction times depending on the fee you pay. Personally I use Ether and Bitcoin Cash. They are based on new versions of blockchain, transfer quickest between wallets and exchanges, and have lower transfer fees. I have not used Dai and Tether, but I will go into stablecoin later.
Step 2 - The Wallet. The wallet is where your money from the pokersite will go. I want to make it very clear. You do not want your money to go from the pokersite to the exchange. The exchange can and will learn it is from a pokersite which can cause you a lot of problems later on. In particular, running a foul of U.S laws and regulations on gaming. So you want the money to go to your wallet. I recommend either Exodus or if you just want Bitcon, Blockstream Green. Exodus though is my go to. You can use it online or through your mobile device. It will automatically scan deposit and withdraw codes for you (this is extremely important so you don't mess up where your money goes). It also has a nice sleek interface and accepts most cryptocurrencies. One thing to point out, Exodus was designed for bitcoin miners at one point who wanted their money out quickly. So, when using bitcoin, it sends and receives your money out as quick as possible using higher fees. You may be concerned by this. However, now you got crypto, lets get it to your exchange.
Step 3 - The Exchange. So there are many exchanges, where you convert your crypto to other crypto or even cash. The three most popular in the US are Cash App, Coinbase, and Gemini. Cash App is easy, if you can set it up. If there is an issue with Cash App, good luck. Their customer support is non-existent (this actually led me to use Coinbase). Basically, you send the money from your wallet to CashApp and then sell the bitcoin in the app. About 20 minutes later the money is in the app and can be sent to your bank. There are various fees, I believe 1.5% to sell the coin, 1.5% to ACH to your account or 1.75% for instant credit to your bank account. I personally use Coinbase Pro. It costs me .5% to sell the crypto. I could then ACH it to my bank account which takes about 5 days. Instead I added another step.
You can link your Coinbase account to your Paypal account. So, when I have cashed out at the cheapest rate at Coinbase Pro, I instant transfer the money to Coinbase and then instant transfer it to paypal. There are no fees for this and there are no fees for Coinbase Pro. Coinbase Pro allows you to do things CashApp or regular Coinbase does not. For example, I held my Bitcoin Cash which came in at 219 and put an order to sell at 230. When Bitcoin Cash hit 230, it sold and I made a couple extra percent return on my money. It was a risk, but wanted to play with a limit order. When the money got to my Paypal account, I instant transferred it to my debit card for 1% fee. I could have ACHed it for free and had the money in a day or two, but I decided to take the quick cash.
Overall, the quickest I have seen cryptocurrency with withdrawals is under 24 hours with Pai Wang Luo Network (Bovada/Ignition) and 3 days for WPN. Once I have received my crypto, the quickest I have been able to hit my account is 1.5 hours.
Now here is the big risk from Cryptocurrency: Currency fluctuation. I have no idea why crypto goes down or up, or why some cryptos go one way while others will go another. General rule, if Bitcoin is up or down, the others are as well. Example: Past 24 Hours (7/5/2020 - 7/6/2020), Bitcoin up 3.1%, Ether 6%, Bitcoin Cash 8.36% Tether -.1%, Dai .68%. Dai and Tether were created to avoid currency fluctuations by tieing themselves to an asset. Tether is "tethered" to the USD. So try one of the those for less risk maybe. But please note, while you have crypto in your wallet and exchange, and it goes up or down, that's your money going up or down.
I hope this helps anyone trying to figure out how to use cryptocurrencies. GL

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?

1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.

Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.

1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.

During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.

Round 3 is here and the matchups are getting juicy, with not only the 4th round on the line but many people’s status on tour in metaphysical jeopardy. The frequency of 5-setters is awesome for the spectator but also exhausting, as switching around ESPN+ is too tempting. I prefer jokerstream, as the sheer number of popups you have to deal with if you try to change the volume or switch to another stream is so daunting that you likely just sit absolutely still once you get one open. I know ESPN and is trying and they are a fledgling streaming service, but the lack of Bovada popups and push-ads about messages in my inbox from online dating services kinda makes me think they don’t care. Whatever, let’s play tennis.
Nadal vs Carreno Busta : To the guy who suggested I put v. in between the names, I’m fairly certain you could have pieced it together, but also your suggestion will make the formatting better, so I’ll give home ec a shot. Nadal is having his usual boring walk through the draw, and played well at the ATP Cup so there’s no reason to think he’s in anything but his best form. Carreno Busta prior to his injury was starting to look like he’d overtake Diego Schwartzman’s role of constantly playing Nadal and pressing him despite having not much chances to win, and his resurgence has been nice to see, but he’s not up to this speed yet. There should be some great rallies in this one and I expect more breaks of serve than usual, but Nadal should win this in 3-4.
Kyrgios vs Khachanov : Kyrgios is 2/2 on trying, and that’s good to see. Khachanov’s line kept shifting towards Ymer and while I like Ymer’s progress, I didn’t expect that he’d be able to compete at that level yet. A 10-8 tiebreaker proves that he can, and Khachanov clutched it but I’m inclined to think that makes him the underdog here. Last round doesn’t predict this one though, and this is another big test for Nick’s resolve. Khachanov takes 0 points off, serves very well, and hits harder than Kyrgios. Kyrgios has the bigger serve, and the concept that his peak tennis beats anyone on tour is generally true, so this one if a will he/won’t he matchup. When I looked at the odds for this round, all I really saw were a bunch of underdogs up against people who I did not think could properly dismiss their challenger, and this is the first of those. If Kyrgios can notch a win here against Khach, he may have his first real shot to beat one of the big 3 in a major. If he lapses as he did against Simon, he may have a difficult 5-setter on his hands. Khachanov in 5, or a new challenger on tour.
Monfils vs Gulbis : Monfils overcame an early break to Ivo and wrapped up a match that he looked like he was in a rush to finish. I think that’s a moderately good strategy for playing Ivo, as he’s going to make errors in the rally whether you hit a good or bad shot. The pressure he applies by holding serve so effortlessly leads a lot of people to become pushers when they’re in a rally since they “have to win every rally since they have an edge” but really Ivo is the one who “has to win a rally at some point or he cannot win” so it was interesting to see the roles reversed. Gulbis backed up his win over FAA nicely and played quality tennis against Bedene. Up next in Gulbis’ wonderdraw of guys he can actually beat is Monfils, who could beat anyone but never will. This is another match where I am going to eat it no matter what I predict, because Monfils has not had a real test yet, and his mental state is as important as Kyrgios to predict what will happen in his matches. This could actually be one of Gulbis’ last great wins on tour, as FAA is still a cut below Monfils. Of course, we’ve never seen anyone beat a healthy Monfils, so what I expect here is either a 5 set thriller, or a 5 set thriller filled with injury timeouts. Someone in 5.
Fritz vs Thiem : It is extremely odd to see Anderson open as a tiny favorite with Fritz, and odder still to see this line move to Fritz actually favored. Even odder is the way the match played out, with Fritz needing to play perfect tennis to eke out the win. A stumble against Bolt for Thiem certainly made backers who took the -1200 cringe, but he somehow righted the ship and rolled to victory. It’d be nice to see Bolt travel more this year, as he could get his ranking high enough to avoid wild cards in the future if he played the American swing, and with his speed and power may be effective on clay as well. Fritz struggled with injury for a while but his serve is effortless and his forehand can “dictate well” and oh my god I sound like a tennis channel announcer. Dictating with the forehand is not a key to victory, it is literally what tennis is. Anytime you are able to hit the ball, you decide where to hit it. If you are on offense, no shit you are dictating where the ball is being hit. It is about as good as “win all the rallies” for a strategic nugget. Fuck Tennis Channel’s parade of soft-spoken idiots. But it’s not about them, is it? (it is) It’s about Thiem in my mind not really having a difficult match here given his edge in the rallies, but needing to return serve somehow to get there. Thiem has gone from being one of the worst hardcourt returners on tour, often blocking the ball several feet long for entire seasons, to being somewhat serviceable with the same swing. It’s cool to see a player committed to learning a new skill and he certainly fought the good fight. I can see this match going the distance as Fritz tends to get in a good rhythm with his serving for a few games and his height lends itself to him hitting winners that are largely unreturnable when he’s able to get forward in the court on a return, and while I’m terrified of Fritz winning, I don’t think he has 5 sets of world class tennis in him, and that is generally what it takes these days to eliminate Thiem. Thiem is a darkhorse to win this event, and a hiccough against Bolt is no shame as he’s an unknown commodity with a high motor. Thiem in 4-5.
Medvedev vs Popyrin : Medvedev continues to roll, but not to much surprise. Martinez acquitted himself nicely, but the writing was on the wall. If you watched Popyrin and Munar, you saw Munar make get after get and never get rewarded. Popyrin’s offense is better than your defense, and it bodes very well for his career that the serve is as good as the forehand. Medvedev is one of the best returners on tour, and covers the court as well as any tall person has in a very long time. I actually think that Popyrin can score on his opponent regardless of how consistent they play, but against Munar Popyrin got a lot of free swings and didn’t have to contend with much offense (Munar has started hitting his spots on his serve and is going after it more than he did, but his transition from clay will take a few years before he’s really a threat on hardcourt so for now he’s likely the best challenger level pusher out there and will get the reps and opportunities because of his claycourt prowess). This isn’t about Munar though, who looked like a boarding school kid on a class trip with his top button buttoned up. Tiny people are adorable, there I said it. This is about Munar. He’s tiny, he tries hard, it’s great. Medvedev in 4.
Isner vs Wawrinka : All of Isner’s matches are dangerous but he actually broke serve in the last one which is always a sign that he’s playing well. Wawrinka snuck past Seppi who is the king of 5-setters he’s “not supposed to be in” and after struggling with Dzumhur and Seppi my friends Wawrinka future at 50:1 is starting to look like it’s not worth the stress of watching his matches. This won’t won’t be easy either, as Isner with momentum in an event becomes very hard to beat as fatigue sets in in the later rounds. The 2/3 format allows him to redline his serve and muscle his way through matches, but the 3/5 allows him to get multiple chances to apply pressure against players who are simply put, much better at tennis than him. In a round of extremely dangerous underdogs this one is one of the most “oooooh you almost had it” opponents to potentially lose to. Isner won their last meeting 2 years ago, and I expect him to win this one also. Another 5 setter most likely, as Wawrinka can produce on average 5 games of excellent tennis followed by one game of hitting the net with his forehand when the line is wide open. Isner in 5 but I’d love to see Medvedev Wawrinka so I hope not.
Goffin vs Rublev : It’s a shame these two have to play but it’s going to be juicy. After some early signs of fatigue against Sugita everyone’s favorite angry broccoli solved the puzzle and looked scary good. He just rips the ball from wherever he is and given his proclivity to just hit it to the open court, when he goes behind his opponent it’s almost always good for a point. The pace and lack of errors are what are remarkable, and although this is clearly the game he was always attempting to play, I didn’t see it coming to fruition as I thought his errors and mobility would always be an issue. Goffin struggled with Herbert as they traded extremely lopsided sets of tennis, but got the victory. I think this will be the classic Goffin matchup where he is outclassed in ballstriking and gradually allows his serve to break down, but fatigue may begin to be a factor for Rublev. It’s a good match to see if that is going to be true or not. If anyone is going to break down his legs, it’s Goffin. If Rublev wins in 3 or 4 sets, we have a real contender for this title on our hands. Rublev in 4 or Goffin in 5. I’m not going to provide a list of things Rublev looks like, but I strongly recommend you watch this one through your snapchat app and use the viking helmet filter anytime they show Goffin or Rublev’s face. Don’t use any of the cute filters on Goffin though or he will turn into a Disney cartoon character and your phone will explode.
Verdasco Zverev : Verdasco edged Basilashvili who couldn’t keep the ball on the court long enough for fatigue to be a factor, and early on it did not look good. Verdasco has his knees taped up, but is playing some of his best tennis, hitting the ball extremely well off the forehand wing, which he always has, but rarely does. Zverev never seemed to do anything, but beat Gerasimov. The knock on Zverev is that he plays too passively, and makes too many errors for that gamestyle. The other knock is that he double faults a lot. The other knock is that he gets upset and gives up on court. The other knock is that he lets his personal life affect his tennis and commitment to training. The other knock is that he overplays his backhand. The other knock is that his forehand is a bit too whippy and can decelerate at times and leave him looking like Benoit Paire’s lovechild. So of course he’s the favorite against Verdasco, but should he be? This is a situation where one player has been excellent for two weeks, and the other is a name everyone recognizes. I think this, like many of the other third round men’s matchups (I will eat these words probably), is a nightmare matchup for Zverev, who allows his opponents to play enough that Verdasco (who looks to hit big and end points) will have his chances here. The issue for Verdasco will be that constantly looking to pull the trigger leads to errors, and the one thing you don’t want to give to the guy who’s game plan is “hit the court and wait for the lesser player to miss” are errors. If Verdasco’s forehand and knees can hold up I don’t see a reason why he can’t win at least one set, and given Zverev’s mental weakness (whining at the box to me is mental weakness, and if the argument is “everyone does it” well, yeah, that’s what makes it so cringeworthy), he could win more than that. Verdasco in 4. I skipped the vs in this one just to see if that guy would notice. I’m pretty sure he won’t. Will you, jinabhi?
Sandgren vs Querrey : The worst thing about predicting Sandgren would give Berrettini trouble is having to watch it actually happen. This guy really ups his game at majors and in a sport of hundreds of guys constantly training and fighting to get to the top, it says something about his game ceiling that he’s able to employ the same strategy as some of the top players on tour in terms of effort level at different events. This is a guy who lost a barnburner to Michael Redlick a few weeks ago on the challenger tour, and while he’s a knob, he hits the ball extremely hard and believes in his game. He was actually trying to outlast Berrettini in rallies and admonished himself several times for trying to hit thin margins. Most players look to capitalize against a guy with such a dominant forehand and serve, but not Sandgren. Up next is Querrey, who got past Berankis without too much trouble, but didn’t really display anything that would make the outcome of this one not in question. Underdog day continues in my mind, and while I’d love a nice Sam Querrey run at a major, he’ll have to outwork Sandgren to win this one, and I’m not sure it’ll happen. Fatigue could be an issue after a very arduous 2nd round, but I think Sandgren is the player in better form. Sandgren in 5.
Pella vs Fognini : If I had Pella left in the reddit survivor pool, I’d be listing him here and going down with the ship. Fognini has struggled in each round and come up with the goods at the end, and now is playing a guy who doesn’t let you do so. Pella didn’t take the foot off the gas for a moment in his opener nor in his last round with Barrere, and he will be the way fresher player at this point in the event. Fognini’s skill and speed are hard to ignore, and he had a great 2019 and seems rededicated to tennis, but Pella is the type of opponent that gives him fits. Pella is stepping into the court a great deal and getting to net quickly when he has the initiative, and I do believe taking away Fognini’s time is the most frustrating thing to a guy who usually is opting to hit the prettiest shot he can. Pella in 3-4.
Fucsovics vs Paul : Folk hero Marton Fucsovics is making fools of all the doubters this event, finally getting over the hump in spectacular fashion. A victim of many final set losses in the past, he’s not even allowed a match to get there thus far, and given the caliber of player he’s beaten so far, he should be favored against Tommy Paul. Dimitrov did what he does best, and lost. Paul has to be riding a great deal of confidence into this match after his solid week. Neither Shap nor Sinner were able to hit through Fucs defense, and the wind has been playing a factor which lends itself to the more adaptable athlete winning. Fucsovics in 4.
Federer vs Milman : Federer in 3. These are the same guys he plays every tournament.
Tsitsipas vs Raonic : Here is a popcorn match. Tsitsipas should win this. He has more game, better mobility, and the only way Raonic should be able to come through here is if Tsitspas struggles on serve. A big key to Tsitsipas’ victories has been the ability to hit first serves, as his outwide serve sets him up nicely to hit into the open court and get to net. These cheap points are paramount if you want to win, and the crystal stargazer sunchild who loves everyone certainly does. I think the odds are cheap in this one at -265, but Raonic can bounce the ball past any opponent on serve so it makes sense. I just don’t see him winning 3/5 sets unless Tsitsipas reverts to making errors and not being able to serve. Tsitsipas in 5.
Cilic vs Bautista-Agut : Cilic got a nice moral victory over Benoit Paire who did everything he could but looked like he lost his legs late in the match. The wind wreaked havoc on Paire’s game and although he hung tough he was reduced largely to slicing the ball on the forehand side and he hit a number of simple backhands long in the end. RBA will be doing none of that, and Cilic likely will get a wakeup call here. Will he notice it? With a big serve and a cannon of a forehand, I often think Cilic is not really aware of where he stands in a match. These guys are all pro’s but Cilic competes and fistpumps like every match is the Wimbledon final. I’m sure that’s nice for a young player to learn to commit on every swing and make their best effort, but this is a guy who at this point should be sure of himself, and know what to do to win. I’d like to see a quiet journeyman composed effort from Cilic, but I likely won’t. RBA has been too good, and I think he will have some scar-tissue from when Cilic was a top player which will allow Cilic to grab a set, but RBA should advance. RBA in 4, and Cilic to possibly start wearing a backwards hat going forward to be more confident.
Lil guy finals : Dropping sets? We don’t do that. Diego and Dusan have rolled through this draw because naturally, shorter players have major advantages on super fast hardcourts. Diego is favored in this one at -230 and I think that’s an error given how well Lajovic has been playing in January. So is the answer that Diego’s level is higher than Dusan’s, or is the line set this way because the general public did not watch the second tier singles matchups at the ATP Cup, and is still expected to flood their money in on Diego. I’ve seen some careless errors from Diego on the backhand wing, and although he was able to get away with them, Dusan’s confidence level right now and the tenacity that he’s been going after his winners is enough that I think he has the edge here. It should be a long grind either way, but Lajovic in 4-5.
Nishioka vs Djokovic : I’m not crowning Djokovic king of the third round yet. I think this will be a test for him as Nishioka is built to frustrate a player like Novak. His speed and commitment to playing would make him the perfect hitting partner were he not so freaking good that he actually belongs on tour. I expected Evans to have an edge in their matchup but watching I saw that he simply could not hit through Nishioka. There is a dynamic to tennis where one player appears visibly trapped when their opponent is keeping them in rallies and not going for much, and it causes unforced errors when they become aware of it. A good example is when RBA begins hitting his backhand into his opponents backhand. These are routine shots and his opponent could just keep hitting back into RBA’s backhand, but the more times RBA does it the more his opponent starts to feel trapped, often trying to hit a slice or drive down the line to change the dynamic. Novak still should win this one, as he’s the best player in the world, but the backhand to backhand war that he generally feasts on won’t be there as nishi is a lefty, and given Nishioka’s proclivity to hit his backhand low-crosscourt, Novak will have to win this one on the forehand wing which can often be a grind for him as he relies on shape rather than pace for this shot. I’m not predicting the upset of the century, but I am saying 10.5 games is too many. Novak in 3-4 1 break sets.
Barty vs Rybakina : Barty’s first real test comes in the form of Rybakina. She hits big, she moves well, she serves well. We all known Ash Barty used to play rugby (ty tennis channel for bringing it up every time she appears on tv), but did you know that Ash is short for Ashleigh? Commonly thought to be a misspelling, it’s actually an homage to her conception in a sleigh. That’s right, her dad? Santa. Anyway, it would be a shame for her to come this far and lose to Rybakina, but this is the best draw for Barty as she is facing opponents whose offense is daunting but whose movement does not match up to Barty. I think this one will go three but with a little Christmas magic Barty should come through and if she’s able to close this down in two I expect at least a semifinals run from her. Barty in 3.
Riske vs Goerges : I see this listed as a pickem which means Riske must be playing great ball. Goerges beat Petra Martic though, which if I’m looking at the draw without watching the matches is a significantly better win. It’ll be hard for this not to go three, and although these two are somewhat known as servers I expect a lot of momentum swings as both will like their chances at getting to play Barty in front of the entire world in the 4th round. Someone in 3 emotionally draining sets.
Keys vs Sakkari : Keys held off Rus’ early challenge and cruised in the second. Once she gets in a good rhythm hitting the ball it’s extremely difficult to stop her, and her serve has improved a bit in pressure moments. Sakkari (whose shoulders and arms are my new fitness goal) ended qualifier Nao Hibino’s nice run. Given her drop in the rankings the past two seasons due to a lot of 3rd set losses, it’ll be a nice bump for Hibino and hopefully she gets settled back on tour in 2020. Keys Sakkari is an interesting matchup because although Sakkari doesn’t have the consistency and results yet to compete for a major, she has the athletic ability to apply pressure. Similar to Andreescu, there are some players who seem like pure athletes. Sakkari is likely the player for my money who generally won’t win every match, but will always be able to appear on the same level of tennis during rallies no matter the opponent. Keys will have the match on her raquet, but this pressure is Sakkari’s best shot. Keys in 2-3.
Big lady finals! Talllllllllll. Kvitova is the only player on tour who gets a full swing and hits the ball by her opponent without them even swinging. She crushes the backhand, she rips the forehand, and then she does this kinda bird shriek that always instantly convinces me she’s going to win the tournament. Like any elegant giant, movement is her only real issue. It was a straight set victory, but Badosa was able to return a number of serves, and that should give Alexandrova a shot, since her strength is her ability to hit big in rallies. A slightly less capable server than Kvitova, Alexandrova is actually 5’9” so maybe this is not the big lady finals, but if guys on Tinder can turn 5’9” into 6’, something something big lady finals! Alexandrova plays for me like a slightly smaller version of Kvitova, and her title run this past week in Shenzen was very impressive. I expect tiebreakers here and I would not be surprised at an upset given Alexandrova’s edge in mobility and defense. Alexandrova in 3.
Osaka vs Gauff : Gauff hung in there despite some mental struggles and got the win against Cirstea, who has definitely improved and will have a good season. Gauff hits her second serve harder than many tour players hit their first, and her ability to adjust her swing to make sure the ball goes in the court continues to be one of the most promising things about her game. A reality check may be on the way, but I don’t think Gauff is overconfident the way other junior phenoms often are, and this match should be good for Gauff’s experience. Osaka is playing better this year than she has in past years, which isn’t always the case with developing tennis champions. Her backhand is crushing winners despite the windy conditions, and I think this is where her edge in this match comes in. Gauff has been able to outlast a few opponents in her budding career due to her mobility, and Osaka takes that away by hitting bigger than most on tour. Osaka in 2.
Zhang vs Kenin : Super long rallies on the way in this one. Zhang has been playing lockdown tennis and Kenin is firmly in that second tier of players who seem to always threaten the top ones (Barty/Osaka/Williams/Andreescu). This would be Zhang’s best win by far in her recent run, and although Collins was able to upend Kenin, I don’t think Zhang has the weapons. Kenin in 2-3.
Jabeur vs Wozniacki : The comeback win from Ons against Garcia was impressive given how much the windy conditions impacted her but not as much as the win by Wozniacki over Yastremska. Woz was in peak form and moved the ball well and made get after get after frustrating get. Winning 7-5 7-5 always seems like a strange result to me, but it also makes me think that she will have too much defense for Jabeur. Wozniacki in 2.
Wang vs Williams : These two always play and I always convince myself that Wang has a chance. She doesn’t. Williams has been in excellent form this week and it will continue here. Williams in 2.
Bencic vs Kontaveit : This is a good matchup that could go either way and would do wonders for the individual players confidence this season. Two gatekeepers of the tour, these two rarely lose to a worse player, and I expect this match to go three sets, with no real way of calling it. Kontaveit did finish strong against Tormo, but she dropped a set before doing so, so whether it was a mental lapse or there is more in the tank remains to be seen. She’ll need it against Bencic, who I think goes down in a tight third set. Kontaveit in 3.
Vekic vs Swiatek : Swiatek is quickly putting her injury concerns behind her, with quick victories over Babos and Suarez Navarro who gives very little away. Up next is an interesting tie with Donna Vekic, who cruised past Alize Cornet. Swiatek has the higher ceiling on tour, but Vekic is always a threat. Swiatek in 2-3.
Mertens vs Bellis : Mertens kept up the pressure and Watson made errors, and a similar story unfolded in Bellis’ match with Muchova. Bellis employed excellent court coverage, and seems to generate extra time on defense with her backhand which allows her to hit very effective passes. The depth of shot was there as was the confidence, and it’s good to see her back in form on tour. This is a very tough test though for a player without power, as Mertens doesn’t usually make errors unless pressured and plays aggressively off both wings with control. I was hoping Bellis would play someone else so I could back her, but I think Mertens wins here. Mertens in 2-3.
Putintseva vs Halep : Ok then. When the odds opened for Collins Putintseva I didn’t understand them, but now they make sense. She completely reversed the tide from their previous matchup and her reward is an in-form Halep who isn’t unbeatable here. Putintseva, whose name I always thought was Yelena, is named Yulia. A player with a nice bundle of temper and a swing for the fences attitude, this should be a good match with lots of momentum swings as Halep is the better player but with slightly less power. Neither really serves many aces, and someone will have to come up with the goods in the third set to claim victory here. Putintseva in 3.
Svitolina vs Muguruza : Muguruza! A nice start to the year and a difficult opponent. Muguruza struggles with errors and Svitolina rarely makes them. This I don’t suspect is Svitolina’s best quality tennis that I’ve seen but I think she is the perfect opponent to beat Garbiñe. Svitolina in 2-3.
Diyas vs Bertens : Great comeback win by Diyas I believe she was down a set and a break point when I stopped watching. I got to watch more of Rodionova against Bertens and she has a very effective game. Bertens played some very reliable tennis to get through, and looks slimmer for this event. There are minor fluctuations with top tennis players weights but when their faces change features a bit this is generally very hard training, or very good steroids. I like Bertens so I’ll say training. Diyas is a defensive test, but her serve is lacking, and this should let Bertens into the match. She has more power and a bit more variety/experience, and this should be the edge, although I don’t expect it to be larger given Diyas’ court coverage. Bertens in 2 tight sets.
Giorgi vs Kerber : What’s scary about Giorgi is that I expect her to make errors and when she doesn’t she can beat most of the tour. It’s probably not scary for Kerber though, who has beaten Giorgi the last 4 times they’ve played. There’s not much reason to think she will lose this one either, but the -165 +145 line seems to indicate that Giorgi will be competitive. There is a three setter in their past, but Giorgi was zipped in the final set. I think this will be more of ze same. Kerber in 3.
Pavlyuchenkova vs Pliskova : This is another match where I think Pliskova is the obvious choice, but am sure I am wrong. Pavs can lose to anyone, and goes three sets more than Bertens as a heavy favorite. She forgot to do so against Taylor Townsend, who is starting to get very comfortable competing at this level. Pliskova’s serving is her strength, and although she can beat opponents quickly, she also can become error prone towards the end of matches. There is nothing to suggest that Pavlyuchenkova is going to beat Pliskova, so I am going to predict it happens. I mean, who is even reading down this far? Pavlychenkova in 3.
​
Here is a list of people left in the event I suspect of being elfs :
-Goffin
-his elf sister Mertens
-their elf pal Halep
-their cousin elf from Japan, Osaka
-Popyrin, nice try elf
-Monfils ... only elfs can move that fast ... good try

The purpose of this post is to use Vegas Odds on Draft Props to establish where/when the popular Wide Receivers are most likely going to go. For this post I used odds from Bovada's NFL Draft Props. .
2020 NFL Draft - First Wide Receiver Drafted
Jerry Jeudy +120 (45.5% Chance)
CeeDee Lamb +125 (44.4% Chance)
Henry Ruggs +300 (25% Chance)
Tee Higgins +5000 (2% Chance)
Justin Jefferson +5000 (2% Chance)
KJ Hamler +6600 (1.5% Chance)
Note that odds add up to over 100% because Vegas likes to make money
Nothing shocking here. We can see here that Vegas agrees with the consensus best Wide Receivers in the class (Jeudy/Lamb). Followed by next best consensus speedster Ruggs.
Interestingly Tee Higgins is still considered in elite tier of wide receivers after a poor Combine, and falling down fantasy/draft boards everywhere. Great prospect
2020 NFL Draft - Total Wide Receivers Drafted in Round 1
Over 5.5 Wide Receivers taken -155 (60.8% Chance)
Under 5.5 Wide Receivers taken 115 (46.5% Chance)
This is potentially the most hyped Wide Receiver class ever (Until next years class at least!..), and Vegas is setting the line accordingly. 6 WR's haven't been picked in a first round since 2009. 5 WR's were picked in the incredibly loaded 2014, and then in the significantly less loaded 2015 class.
I see 4 almost certain locks to go in the 2020 1st (Jeudy/Ruggs/Lamb/Jefferson). Following the other odds for 2020 NFL Draft - First Wide Receiver Drafted;Higgins is likely to go in the first as well. That leaves at least one of Mims, Aiyuk, Raegor, Shenault, Hamler is likely to see themselves sneak in to the end of the 1st for a total of 6 1st Round Wide Receivers. With an outside chance we see 7 or 8 Receivers in the top 32.
Player Props
my pick in Bold
Jerry Jeudy O/U 11.5 (-155/+115) Most likely drafted with picks 10-15
Teams with those picks (CLE, NYJ, LV, SF, TB, DEN)
Easy to mock the best wide receiver to the WR needy NYJ's at pick 11. However, Vegas seems to think it is more likely that he goes after pick 11. Las Vegas is also in desperate need for elite WR's, and if the Jets somehow actually do pass here. The Las Vegas Raiders will happily take the best one.
Ceedee Lamb O/U 12.5 (-130/-110) Most likely drafted with picks 10-15
Teams with those picks (CLE, NYJ, LV, SF, TB, DEN)
San Francisco has built its offense around people that play fast with the ball in their hands. Ceedee Lamb has consistently looked electric after the catch, and I think they'd love to add him at this position.
Henry Ruggs O/U 14.5 (-140/EVEN) Most likely drafted with picks 13-20
Teams with these picks (SF, TB, DEN, ATL, DAL, MIA, LV, JAC)
Extremely unoriginal, as every mock draft ever has Denver picking Ruggs here. But Vegas seems to agree this is a real possibility.
Justin Jefferson O/U 21.5 (-130/-110) Most likely drafted with picks 20-25
Teams with these picks (JAC, PHI, MIN, NE, NO, MIN)
Odds don't agree with the Eagles taking Jefferson here, but I think they'd be crazy to pass up his talent. If they do pass there's zero chance that the Vikings also pass.
Jalen Raegor O/U 32.5 (-200/+150) Most likely drafted with picks 30-38
Teams with these picks (GB, SF, KC, IND, DET, NYG, LAC, CAR)
Marvin Jones is on the wrong side of 30. This looks like a great landing spot for a young wide receiver to pair up with Golladay. While most people seem to think Detroit trades out of the #3 overall pick. Tua at 3, and Raegor at 35 would be an exciting restart for a team who's best days are behind them.
Brandon Aiyuk O/U 32.5 (-290/+190) Most likely drafted with picks 31-40
Teams with those picks (SF, KC, IND, DET, NYG, LAC, CAR, MIA, HOU)
Daniel Jones seems to have the "it", and surrounding him with offensive talent that isn't a huge injury risk
Tee Higgins O/U 32.5 (+125/-165) Most likely drafted 28-35
Teams with those picks (BAL, TEN, GB, SF, KC, CIN, IND, DET)
Vegas thinks that Higgins goes in the 1st 60% of the time. I personally don't see it. With the first pick of the 2nd round though Cincinnati can get a AJ Green Clone to seamlessly replace the actual AJ Green.
Denzel Mims O/U 33.5 (+130/-170) Most likely drafted with picks 29-36
Teams with those picks (TEN, GB, SF, KC, CIN, IND, DET, NYG)
Mims has absolutely crushed this offseason. If Green bay see's he's available there I think they take him.
Laviska Shenault O/U 32.5 (-300/+200) Most likely drafted with picks 31-40
Teams with those picks (SF, KC, IND, DET, NYG, LAC, CAR, MIA, HOU)
Injury risk is gonna kill Shenault. Teams are not able to have their doctors check him out due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. Houston just let Hopkins go for a pack of peanuts, and look to hit big on a sliding Shenault.

A recurring theme I’ve seen here is guys playing huge parlays with multiple games ending before the last games start. You lose so much value doing it this way, and even more if you hedge your last play.
I’m going to use Vegas numbers for ease of math, and assume -110 odds, but know online books pay a bit better on parlays.
Let’s say theres 6 games you really like. Of the 6 games, 3 play at 1pm, 2 games at 4, and 1 at 8pm. You have $100 to lose on this weeks games.
A 6 team parlay pays 45:1 so you’d profit $4500 if all 6 hit. Or, if you break it down to blocks of games you would risk $100 on the first 3 at 6:1 leaving you with $700 ($600 profit). Put that $700 into another 2 team that wins you $1820 for $2520 ($2420 profit) total. Roll that into the final game and you’re risking $2520 to win $2290, for a total of $4810, resulting in an additional $210 profit.
If you’re someone who hedges, let’s say you played that 6 teamer but hedged $300 the other way before the 8pm game. If your 6 team wins you profit $4170. If it loses lose you profit $200. BUT, if you played the 3 team and 2 team parlays and wanted to guarantee a $200 profit, you’d risk only risk $2220 on the final game, resulting in a profit of either $200 or $4238, or $68 (roughly 1/3 your hedge amount) more than you’d have won if you’d just hedged a 6 team.
To give an idea how bad parlays really pay: $100 wins $4500 on a 6 team but if you stack your plays instead:
$100 to win $91 —— $191 to win $173 —— $364 to win $331 —— $695 to win $631 —— $1326 to win $1206 —— $2532 to win $2305 = 4841
If you win all 6, an initial $100 bet returns $4841, or $241 more profit than a 6 team parlay, and you have to option of betting less on any game without losing equity and vig betting against yourself.
Long story short: if any of your plays start/end at different times, you’ll do better in the end if you treat them as individual plays.
Another edit: if you played the 3-2-1 hypothetical format above and won the first two parlays, you could bank your initial wager from the first parlay and play with house money for the last leg- and still have the chance to win more than if you’d played a 6 team.
Edit: sorry about the formatting, mobile let me down.
Ok, one more edit: Stacking 6 plays individually should pay +4741 (all at -110 odds)
I looked at a few books: Sportsbook pays +4000 but there’s an error in their system that’s treating buying points as if you were selling them (buying a +1 -110 to +1.5 -120 pays +4549) so I’m not sure what their correct structure is.
Bovada pays +4741 at -110 My bookie pays +4700 at -110 FanDuel pays +4741 (-110) Bet365 pays +4741 (110)
So I guess the majority of online books do in-fact stack the plays. If you play in Vegas, it appears Jerry’s Nugget is the only one that offers the correct +4741, William hill offers 45:1, while all the others offer 40:1. So my advice still stands if you’re playing in Vegas, or if you’re going to hedge your last game.
Moral of the story: Don’t hedge your last play, shop around to be sure you’re getting fair values on your parlays, and play around with formats to maximize your odds, especially if you’re hitting up Vegas

Disclaimer: This is likely going to be the most boring section but year 3 is where it starts to get good (which I can make it more humorous) and I will type it up while I play tomorrow. But as long as interest in these threads is here I will invest the time in making them. A couple comments in the first one said it was nostalgic, which I agree, its kind of why I am even writing these. These were the actual good days of poker before government decided to fuck it up for everyone, poker is a shell of what it used to be and it will never return to its glory days without government fucking off. There is no entry point for new players these days, there are no advertisements on ESPN, no play money hustles or low stakes games online full of fish (now full of bots or bot like regs) or mega field mtts for people to get excited about. Also processing power has grown so much that problem solvers are becoming prevalent in decent stakes games. Jump online and play some NLH, it is insanely unfriendly to anyone playing less than perfect (plo is the only way to play online now, lets make it bigger than NLH!). Your every leak will be exploited. Its just not going to come back. (No one tell me bovada is soft either, fuck the anonymous stuff, 4$ rake no rewards system, they deserve no business, globalpoker is the only one worse) Also worth noting every single event I cover is real. The only thing that can be false is dialogue (for humor usually) and potentially altered hand histories due to lapsed memory.
Oh and since I bashed two online sites I will plug one. Coinpoker.com - learn how to use crypto and join up. The software is solid, traffic a bit slow for USA time zones but its growing a bit. I have no affiliation aside from playing there and would enjoy more traffic in USA peak hours.
Year 2
I am now a 20 year old gun slinger in the wild West of online poker. I am grinding sit n gos and mtts and cash games. I am a jack of all trades, and a master of all games. I am playing plo stud8 nlh it didnt matter, I just wanted to learn every game. I was a genuine student of poker, it consumed my brain at all times. I wake up at noon to slide into my chair and start grinding, still living at home with my dad in my ear telling me to get a job because “there is no future to gambling” to which I retort “you got it wrong pops, its actually no gamble no future, and I am gonna gamble for mine”.
I am in the backwoods of Oklahoma. I have no clue when high speed internet was invented but I sure as hell didnt have it in 2006. I was still using dialup as it was the only option available. I grind a lot of mtts and sitngos, and when Poker Stars releases a small patch or update I always paid the piper. I would leave the website open 24/7 so disconnects often would leave me screaming at my computer banging my head as updates downloaded for 5-20 minutes usually. Often I would be ITM in an mtt or holding AA/KK somewhere praying to the poker gods that everyone else disconnected and was feeling my struggles as well.
Nevertheless I am becoming a winning player. I have erratic account balances ranging from 300-1000$ while I play $1-10$ mtts (and occasionally jumping into a 20$+) and cash games at 10nl/plo mostly. I dont exactly recall the tourney that allowed me to cash out $3,000 off of Poker Stars, but it happened at some point that year. I remember the day it came in the mail pretty well. I got in my piece of shit 1998 Ford F150 (that I drove from age 17 to 23ish until I gave it to a friend who had his car stolen, it finally collapsed at 310k miles, I abused that truck, it literally had so many original parts on it, including the spark plugs amazingly) and drove into town head held high with my prize sitting on my lap. I couldnt wait to get to the bank so they could ask me where I got all this money from (which is ironic because a year later you had to lie if you wanted to retain your bank account). In my mind, as a 20 year old who has never even held 1000$ of my own money before it felt like I was going to be cashing the biggest check they would see all week.
I arrive at a Bank of Oklahoma, walk in and head to an open teller. She was an elderly lady probably in her 60s. I hand her the check and give her my account info and she starts punching away on her computer. She asks me how I want it, and with a smug grin on my face I say “in cash”. She gives me a blank stare then reaches into her drawer and pulls out a stack of $100 bills. This was the moment I had lived for, this was the moment my year plus of sitting in a basement ostracized from society grinding it out on my leather ass was for. She leans in to start counting out $3,000 and time is moving so slow for me. My bottom lip is literally shaking watching her count this massive sum of fiat, it was at the time the greatest moment of my life (over losing virginity, over the first time feeling the euphoria of MDMA, over anything). It felt so fulfilling. Pixelated cash turned to physical cash and I was on my way. Making the hour drive to the city to buy some cocaine and hang out with friends.
Short version of the weeks that followed that event, cocaine and home games for pennies. The money ran dry and my nose wore raw. The cocaine was rarely good obviously but thats to be expected in 2006 and in the Midwest.
Towards the end of the year I am going to a friends house to play after a weekend of partying and poker. We played at the casino the night before and have had little to no sleep in two days. Hes not a well seasoned super pro who has cashed a $3,000 check like me but he dabbles a bit. Its Sunday and were gonna grind a few tourneys, one in particular was a freeroll for anyone who earned X amount of FPPs over a set period of time. Everyone who makes final table gets a $12,000 package to main event. So we saddle up and jump into this (if my memory serves me correctly) 26,000~ player field. Luckily it had a good structure with plenty of play, 5 minute levels was going to allow my sharpened skills to shine. Laptops out, chargers plugged into a power supply we were underway. We felt like Louis and Clark setting out to traverse the western USA. We were gonna chart our maps on our way through this large field and claim our prize. We rarely say a word to each other through the first hour, were dog ass tired from the partying and high stakes 1-2nl at the casino the night before.
I bust my entry in the second hour, humiliated by the poker gods I look over at my friend in disgrace to let him know he is on his own, only to see him fast asleep sitting out at his table. I grab his laptop and feel my heart thud and my jugular swell as I have been revitalized having a second chance at this tourney, so long as he doesnt wake up.
I quietly accrue chips, soul reading my digital opponents and swiping their blinds. An hour passes I am still alive. Another hour and I am full thrive. Another hour and it seems I wont be deprived. We get down to 1000 then 500 then 100 people left standing. I awake my friend to show him what I have done, much to his surprise. He was excited but knew that I was the captain of his ship now. He fell asleep at the helm, so his ship now belonged to me.
Now to the hands I remember pretty well.
Two tables left. Not a ton of play but I am one of the bigger stacks. 15ish left and I am in the blinds with 66 when some asshat rips from the cutoff. It will cost me 3/4 of my stack (tbh I cant remember how many bb, it had to be 6-10 I would think, a 5 minute level turbo with 26k people back in 06? Had to be shallow) but I nut up and call.
My 66 is ahead of his QT but he finds a way to win. Now I am on deaths throes seeing this 12k package slip out of my grasp.
Aside from a pivotal pot that I won with K9o (ripping shallow) I remember no other hands but I assure you no one was all in or had someone all in more than I did at those final two tables. It tailed off with me comfortably sliding in from 11~ left to 9. I remember agonizing so many all ins, laughing when I won and yelling FUCK!! when I lost. More highs and lows over that 20-30 minutes than I had ever thought possible, and wouldnt feel again for a year or two. This 12k score was by far my biggest to date. We fist bumped and despite having no sleep we went out drinking and playing 1-2 like a couple of punk 21 year olds that we were. Kind of a side note but I have had many threats to me at a poker table, I am a bit mouthy (in the name of humor, but the humorless get angry).
Since it was my friends account we chopped the 12k. He proceeded to become a 200nl pro for the next few weeks. Sitting with the likes of Sam Simon (of The Simpsons, he was a frequent Poker Stars player) and melting off a good portion before tapping out.
I proceeded to continue to chip up from there. Then I had some issues on Poker Stars. While playing some 180 man sitgos I was talking to someone in chat. Who then found me on my cash tables to ask me what I had in a hand. Needless to say I broke collusion rules (worse than that, he lingered and was telling me his hands and I would tell him mine like a nimrod). Wasnt exactly intentional but I received a life time ban on Poker Stars and they sent me a check for my account balance. Not my proudest moment, it was dumb but honestly resulted in a net positive.
The end of the year I turn 21 and am grinding FTP and I am thinking about moving out of my folks house. I never get a fat roll together but I am winning here and there and blowing money like an idiot kid who has no concept of tomorrow. I was downloading new poker sites (the resulting net positive from losing stars)
One last story from this year. This is genuinely my favorite one I ever tell (and I tell it occasionally to this day in certain situations with people I dont think will get offended and they set themselves up for it)
I walk into a card room and get a 1-2 seat. I grab chips and head that way, and I end up drawing a seat directly to this old mans left. The old man was my grandfather. I had spent minimal time with this man in my life. Less than most people do with grandparents who live fairly close. He was a gambler though, stocks or cards. Rumor has it (never heard this from him only my mom and other family) in the late 70s or early 80s he sells a plot of land with a few oil drills on it and heads to Vegas where he spends 6-9 months playing poker and comes back busto. I never asked him about this story, if true I am sure he was felting himself to Brunson or Slim or some of the other old timers. The land yielded him a few hundred thousand dollars. The funny part is that piece of land is still pumping oil in 2019 (he fucked up). He recovered in life though, he never lived poorly. Owned a house on a lake in Oklahoma and dated meth addicted women 30 years younger than him my whole life. Just a standard version of a sugar daddy I suppose.
Anyhow, we greet each other and exchange a few words before just getting immersed in the game. Hes not exactly an old man coffee player, I do know his favorite hand is 910 though from poker discussions we had previously. About an hour into the session I have barely played a hand. I look over at him and say “man I just keep getting 92o 83o 72o over and over”. He then turns his head towards me and looks me in the eyes and says words I never will forget. He says (using fake name here) “Johnny, there aint one guy at this table that gives a fuck what youre folding” and looks away. I wasnt shocked at the cold response. He was a brash and dry person. Never told a joke that I remember. I never forgot it though and when people try to complain about their cards I tell them “I will tell you what my grandpappy told me, aint nobody at this table gives a fuck what youre folding”. Even though it was kind of cold, truer words rarely are uttered at a poker table. The last thing I care about is someones bad beats or card dead hour or wtf ever else. We are all so self involved that we think people care to hear a bad beat story or whatever, but they dont.
Part 3 in the next day or two.

I was playing Craps on bovada yesterday night 3/28/2020
I was playing just about every way possible because i feel like the system will try to mess with you if they detect some pattern. (i'm just stupid that way, but also reconized that bovada is not in new jersy or the US and I don't think they have to play by our online gambling rules)
Anyways Im up and down and begin noticing the client is becoming unstable. it's not letting me bet unless i put more money down and not all my bets are showing but I kept playing anyways until I hit that $159 bet and suddenly realize that I think i still had bets on 2,3,11,12 and i think one of those must have hit for some amount.
I cashout afterwards. started at 25 ended at 325 or some shit. It' still fun to do because the minimum is 1 dollar but i think their traffic on a Saturday night just breaks everything.

So this summer more or less marked my first year anniversary in sports betting, and I thought I'd do a quick recap for fun to look back when I'm either old a f or completely bankrupt.
How did I get into sports betting and what was my first ever wager?
I'm a huge NBA fan and when I heard that the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers were going game 7 in the ECF, I just had a good gut feeling that a Dubz vs Cavs pt 4 final was imminent. And when my friend told me that odds were pretty much even, I deposited $500 on Bovada and placed a wager to win $600. The game came down to the wire, but towards the end, the refs were calling phantom fouls on Jayson Tatum (who of course was guarding LeBron), and the Cavs ended up with the W. Once I won the $600, I cashed out as check and I vowed that I shall never participate in such activities ever again but then........
Why did I deposit again after telling myself that I won't?
The World Cup happened lmao. I had not much prior exposure to soccer which probably explains why I lost most of the $600 I won from my first ever wager, but this valuable experience taught me to stop betting on soccer. Long story short, I deposited $1,000, was down to $500 or so throughout the world cup. I tilt bet $250 each on France to win and BTTS and France to win and only France to score. Still can't believe the former was valued at like +400 or so that I was able to recuperate all the losses that I incurred throughout the World Cup.
Biggest Win? Loss?
Biggest $$ Win - I meant to place a $0.61 4-leg round robin just to understand what a round robin bet looked like. After I pressed submit, apparently my bet slip said I placed a $610 4-leg round robin. I was in a huge state of shock and contacted Bovada immediately who of course said they couldn't do shit about it. Thankfully all 4-legs hit and I won like about a grand. It was 2 NRL picks by good old WeightShift along with 2 E-sports picks by PokeyTifu99. Shoutout to them and fuck Bovada.
Biggest Odds Win - I don't usually do parlays bigger than 4-legs, but I hit a 7-leg parlay at (+9500) once. All mlb games. $5 to win $475 or so
Biggest Loss - Believe it or not, I got my profits up to about $3.5k. I placed it all on New Orleans Saints ML vs LA Rams the NFC Championship game. Lost it all and had to start from ground zero back again... lesson learned.
Least Proud Moment - Saturday night. Had nothing better to do so I placed a $500 wager on Tecia Torres (+115) against Weili Zhang. Illegally streaming in my room, standing up and shouting "LET'S GO TECIA" as she got locked in a headlock and I picture my 5 benjy's evaporating into thin air :'(
Pros and Cons of Sports Betting?
Pros
- Win some $ (lol)
- Makes games more exciting (if you are winning that is...)
- Learn about statistics, probability, etc.
- Develop an interest in sports you never cared about: I started playing tennis recently and it's pretty fun. Always viewed it as a scrub sport because my highschool never gave a shit about tennis and all the cool kids ran track or played baseball.
Cons
- Lose $. Even if you may be up, nothing lasts forever.
- It takes a toll on you mentally
- Takes away a lot of your time; although I don't as much anymore, checking flashscores, mlb gameday, espn constantly sucks!
- Viewed as a degenerate by a majority of others, but if you don't really care what others think of you, I guess this doesn't matter.
Lessons learned through sports betting.
Make sure to stay level headed. Don't chase losses. If something's too good to be true? It probably is. Learn to take breaks.
Do you still like sports?
Yup. I love the Raptors (woohoo WETHENORTH! but boohoo Kawhii), Saints, Cubs, Arsenal, Red Bull Salzburg, Roger Federer, Korean Zombie and more. On the other hand, screw the 76ers, Packers, Dodgers, Barca, Nadal and more.
A note though, you really cannot be biased when it comes to sports betting. (see Saints example above)
What does the future hold?
Hopefully profits, hookers and cocaine. (nah I'm jk about the last two, I'm a pretty clean guy).

I feel embarrassed even posting this, but I just need to write out my thoughts to clear my mind.
So I used to play online poker illegally quite a bit as a teenager favoring low stakes mtt's and sng's. However, I was pretty addicted and would spend whole days just smoking weed and playing tournaments. This eventually came to a stop for one reason or another which I don't quite remember, but probably out of neccesity.
Anyways I'm 24 now, college grad working as a software engineer in the silicon valley. About a month ago I decide to give poker a go again and deposit 50$ into bovada. Of course I lose that in a few days, then deposit twice more before losing it all again, $150 down the hatch.
The 4th time I deposited $50 a couple weeks ago I somehow managed to build it up to $470 through many ups and downs. This includes playing nonstop after work, through weekends, and even during my lunch break. Then yesterday I proceed to have a horrible day involving terrible decision making, terrible luck, and terrible bankroll management, leaving me with $200 and a deep depression. Last night I finally said "enough" and withdrew the remaining money I had left and said I'm done with poker.
Then guess what I do today?? Deposit another $50, lose that, deposit $50 again, and lose that. Some of it was bad luck but a lot of it was just playing hands impulsively and not taking things seriously. I'm not so much mad about the money as I am of my impulsivity. You'd think that a 24 year old would have a tiny bit of self-control, but apparently I'm still just a fucking kid. I really like poker and think I have potential to be a decent player, but I just get so disappointed in myself when I show myself that I don't have self-control.
Anyways, I'd say that I'm done playing again, but knowing me I'll probably just keep depositing $50. I'm obviously addicted but tbh I just don't have that much meaning or friends in my life right now and poker is one of the few things that actually makes me feel alive. Hopefully I can develop some discipline before it's too late.

Going to try and keep this condensed.
I placed a tennis wager on Auger-Aliassime v. Raonic 3 days ago for the Rogers Cup. The bet was for Auger-Aliassime +1.5 sets. In a best of 3 sets match, which this was, the bet can be boiled down to: FA2 wins a set, I win the bet. Once he wins a set, there is no possible outcome where +1.5 sets is not true. Bovada does not agree.
Raonic retired after the second set. Bovada graded my bet no-action. I've reached out to Bovada four times (it's a small amount of money, but I have a system I'm running, and BY PRINCIPLE that money should be mine), and after consulting with their "sports team" (which I'm not allowed to speak to), they had three lines of reasoning that they flipped between at random. None of them make any sense.
The first one is: Since three sets were not played, the outcome is unknowable. They could not explain to me how, even though FA2 had won the first set, there was a mystery outcome where he could have lost by more than 1 set, had the match been finished.
The second one is (it's a doozie, get ready): Since the bet says PLUS 1.5, FA2 has to win 2 sets. Two of the people I spoke to told me this. They think the plus sign means you have to win more than 1.5 sets, not lose by less than 1.5 sets. Big dummy mode.
The third, and maybe most unacceptable one is: Since the match is 5 sets, winning one set is not enough to know whether he would have stayed within a set. This tournament, the Rogers Cup, consists only of 3 set matches. Yikes.
After wasting several hours (I'm an idiot) on this, I still never got the payout, and the people I spoke to are convinced that the bet was settled correctly. Fuck me I guess.
For reference, their own rules state: In the event of a match starting but not being completed, all bets will be void unless the result of the wager has already been determined.
Thanks for letting me vent.
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/SOXll0v