Just about all of you are weighing in on the Deshaun Watson controversy and the hiring of the new head coach. I expect Watson, or his people, to make an official trade demand soon, and we’ll see where it goes from there. They can trade him or let him sit out, if it comes to that. I hope it doesn’t get James Harden ugly.
If you’re venting and don’t ask for an answer, I’ll just run your comment.
The Watson controversy could drag on for a long time. Meanwhile, general manager Nick Caserio is getting closer to recommending a new coach to Cal McNair, who’ll sign off on it.
There’s a good chance the next head could be a coordinator in the AFC Championship Game — Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier or Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. I think Indianapolis defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is a strong candidate, too.
Q: Does anybody really know what’s going on with Watson? No doubt he is a tremendous talent and I have always gotten the impression a stand-up guy. All the news/ESPN hype aside why hasn’t he stated his position. What the news is reporting is second- or third-hand information. I don’t believe in Twitter, etc., to communicate in a situation like this. The owner, GM and Watson needs to sit down and talk. If there is a problem or issue, lay it out on the table. They all need to man up. If Watson doesn’t want to be a Texan after they gave him the contract and money, Watson needs to move on. McNair owns the club, you may not agree with how everything is done but he is the owneboss. I hope Watson decides he wants to be a Texan, but that is his call. If not he is a distraction and remember there is no I in team. — Bill B.
A: Sitting down and talking makes too much sense, Bill. So far, Watson hasn’t said what he wants. It’s all come from unnamed sources close to Watson.
Q: The rhetoric around Deshaun displeasure seems to be escalating. My personal opinion is that Deshaun shows a lot of audacity demanding that the owner of the company he works for must consult with him on who he hires to be his boss. Any other industry and he would be in the parking lot with a pink slip in his hand. But then I'm an old guy and not in tune with today’s youth. My question is in regard to his contract. If he stays mad and won't play and demands a trade are the Texans obligated to trade him, or can they not pay him for showing up for work and hold him accountable for the length of the contract? — Eric R.
A: Times have changed, Eric. Some agents and players in the NFL want it to be like the NBA, where the agents and players control so much, like who goes where. If Watson sits, he doesn’t get paid. If he sits out the season, he loses credit for the season and has to start over in 2022. He can do like James Harden and make it so ugly they have to trade him, but I can’t imagine Watson doing what Harden did. That’s not the Deshaun I’ve covered since the day he was drafted.
Q: Does McNair’s decision to keep Easterby send the message to Deshaun (and the others in the locker room that consider Jack toxic) that Easterby is more valuable to the Texans organization than Deshaun. Cal called the Easterby criticism “unjustified.” I get it — it’s unjustified, to Cal. But isn’t it totally justified to 85 to 90 of the locker room (if the Sports Illustrated article and interviews are accurate). — David M.
A: I don’t know what the other players think. Charles Omenihu said at a charity event this week he didn’t have a problem with Easterby. Brandin Cooks, who met Easterby at New England, has praised him, too. What McNair is saying is that nobody is going to tell him to hire or fire, like the owner of most businesses I know.
Q: I know you keep reassuring everyone Watson isn’t going anywhere, but the situation seems to be escalating. The Texans are finding more and interesting ways to keep the fans churned up. It is like a tempest in a teapot. One issue you touched on is will the Texans be able to attract the right candidate if they don’t get this Watson situation fixed. McNair seems to be willing to win the battle at the cost of the war. I am so disgusted with that organization for being so out of touch. One question about Easterby. Is it his ties to OB or is he doing things in the organization to create divisiveness? I can’t understand how somebody can be this polarizing to so many people within the organization and so popular with management. None of this makes sense! — Randy S.
A: You’re right about it not making sense, Randy. I think players and fans believe every bad decision OB made was also made by Easterby. I know many don’t like that Easterby has his fingerprints on so many parts of the organization rather than staying in his lane like he did with the Patriots. But McNair has given him that authority, and Easterby answers to only one person.
Q: I don’t really understand what Easterby did that was so offensive to Watson and Andre Johnson. It’s like the teacher going to the superintendent and telling him to fire the principal. But in this case, Easterby doesn’t directly work with Watson. You’ve been at the Chronicle a long time and are highly respected, but you don’t tell the publisher what to do or you wouldn't be there much longer. — Joe T.
A: You’ve got that right, Joe, but times are different today. Players and agents want control. The Texans negotiated a contract in good faith for $156 million, and they don’t want to trade Watson. They’ve done nothing but praise him to the high heavens. But if Watson is determined to get traded, it’s going to deteriorate. McNair apologized to Watson for the miscommunications on the Caserio hire. McNair and Caserio assured everyone they’d keep Watson updated on the coaching search. ESPN reported Sunday that Watson won’t return their calls. If that’s the case, how does he keep up with their coaching search?
Q: Why do people not like Easterby? Evidently McNair is one of the few who support him. Watson deserves to have some input. We wasted too many years with O’Brien. — Carole R.
A: I’m not exactly sure why they don’t like him, Carole, other than his close association with OB, being part of a total collapse in a disastrous season, having Watson and Andre Johnson taking public shots at him. Nobody has detailed what they don’t like.
Q: Watson's feud. Another employee that wants to be boss. And a rich one at that. Really never heard about Easterby until lately. Let's not forget that Cal McNair let O'Brien take over. O'Brien along with McNair, will never be forgiven here in Houston for giving Hopkins away. Hiring a coach means more to your readers/fans than anything a guy like Caserio could. You've been here. You know as much as anyone, maybe more. Can anyone point McNair in the right direction? Let's see. Caserio has been here a week! Please continue to keep us aware. — Lyn B.
A: Caserio has been in personnel for 19 of his 21 years in the NFL, Lyn. There was no personnel director more deserving of getting a chance to become personnel director than Caserio. It’s going to take a lot of work, starting with the new coach and his staff.
Q: Once again I enjoyed your Mailbag this week. Under one of the Chronicle pictures of Deshaun Watson in said he was unhappy with his lack of involvement in searches for GM and coach. How can he be unhappy when his paycheck hits the bank each week. Someone should remind him that he was hired to be the QB, not the GM or coach. And I do mean sit him down for a little owner-to-QB session and remind him who signs those paychecks since he wants to talk to McNair so badly. Sounds like another entitlement issue to me. Quite frankly, I think he gets too much credit and week after week he makes his share of mistakes that contribute to losses. Not sure why the masses are willing to look beyond that. How could the Texans give him any more than they have already? As far as his no-trade clause, the backup quarterback position might just show him a bit of humility or appreciation for where he is and what he has. Time for someone to put these prima donnas in their place. With a good GM and a good coach in place the Texans can do better without him as the starting QB. Let him watch a few Texan wins from the bench for awhile and let’s see how much input he thinks he should have in GM and head coach hires. — Will W.
A: Will, Watson won’t be sitting on the bench. If he’s here, he’s starting. If he’s not, he’s starting somewhere else.
Q: I am a Chronicle subscriber, have read your column for years. I read how the Texans re-did Andre's contract. Then he was an assistant (or similar) in recent years. I understand Andre taking up for Deshaun but I do not understand such sharpness being tweeted out. That seems completely unlike the Andre that the public knows. How was Andre so wronged? — Ed K.
A: He wasn’t wronged, Ed. I think when he suggested that Watson stand his ground and then ripped Easterby, he was telling us what he thinks.
Q: Watson not happy? Let's kiss his butt to make him happy. Last time I checked he was an employee, not a part owner. Many employees are not happy with certain things in their workplace, but they get over it. Show him the door. — Gene C.
Q: OK, it’s crunch time. My opinion, hiring Bieniemy or possibly Frazier is the only thing that keeps Watson. — Scott M.
A: I’m guessing it’s got to be more than that, Scott.
Q: I think I’ve finally reached my tipping point. That is saying a lot after a year like 2020. The Harden situation was surprisingly easier. I’m a die-hard Rockets and basketball fan. I’ve had season tickets or have been buying tickets since 1991. And yet when it comes to Harden, good riddance. Take it somewhere else. Watson is a whole different deal. While the old-school part of me laughs a little at the Gen Y and Gen X demands and attitudes, that train has left the station. When you give a “kid” $100-200 million it’s hard to expect the maturity or experience of someone in their more developed years. That said, how could McNair let this get so bad? Not sure what to believe in this world of blogger news, but where there is smoke, there is fire. I guess as long as Cal believes we will keep buying tickets and watching on TV then he too can do what he wants. I will say if Watson goes, I will be remorsefully selling my PSLs at first opportunity. Even if our new GM pulled of a Herschel Walker-like trade. I believe in loyalty. It’s important in life. But there is nothing Easterby can be providing that outweighs the damage that seems well documented in and out of the organization. It’s just unbelievable to me and frankly bums me out. I handled the Astros. I’m OK with the Rockets. I’ve accepted the mask. I’ve accepted the election. I just can’t get my head around the situation with Watson. — Keith C.
A: I imagine many of us feel like you do, Keith.
Q: By the way, I’m tired of the sophomoric name-calling in many of your e-mails. You should be able to make your point without stooping to name-calling, right? Thank you. — Mike A.
A: The e-mails have been better this week, Mike. Thank everyone for ditching the name-calling. I’ve deleted several e-mails because I don’t want to take the time to edit out the name-calling.
Q: Congratulations on the Cal McNair interview about Easterby. National media giving you credit for it as well. The news about McNair being so entrenched was nauseating at best but at least it provides certainty. Let's hope the players can convince Caserio to wall him off from them so he isn't a distraction. I sincerely hope fans are allowed in the stadium next year so they can provide direct feedback to McNair and his boss. I can think of no other situation in American business when a subordinate has withstood this much hostility and venom. Maybe in a cult, but not a business. How terribly unfortunate. Thanks for being the messenger. — Ray M.
A: Thanks very much, Ray.
Q: I read your articles and watch your videos. Cal McNair apologized for his actions or communications that created mistrust. Few hours after that Deshaun Watson puts another cryptic tweet about 2 and 10. Why does such a smart player and good person put out such tweets that hurt the reputation of the team and ownership? Is he misguided? Wish tweets could be used to spread positivity, awareness on social issues instead of riling public opinion against team ownership. Why is it hard for players to sort out differences directly as grown-up adults instead of washing dirty linen in public? I want Deshaun to stay in Houston but these cryptic tweets and media leaks (anonymous sources) are beginning to damage his reputation as well. — Jeevan R.
A: It’s a new era, Jeevan. That’s just the way a lot of people operate today. One-on-one communication seems to be a thing of the past.
Q: If Easterby was such a help to the organization here are some suggested comments McNair might have made:

1. You know we could not have pulled off the trading of Hopkins without his help, this was a really successful moment for our franchise, he advised O'Brian perfectly on this trade.
   
2. Why would people question the decision to keep Easterby, after all who would listen to Andre or Watson, they were just players and you can never get enough advice for someone who has been in New England
   
3. Our new GM needed to have friends around to support his decision making and Easterby is that guy
   
4. Why should I listen to a quarterback or a retired wideout when choosing a GM, after all I have Easterly to advise me, let Watson vacation in Cabo
   
5. Andre simply has not gotten to know "Jackie" like I have.
   
6. You will see when our team advised by my close buddy Jack Easterby chooses our head coach. No I do not think a quarterback of a losing team should have any say, why would I think of that? After all he is not Elway or Manning or even Blanda. You will see Easterby's worth when we choose the new coach.
   

Sorry David Barron is retiring, you now have to be the old wise owl. — Don H.
A: We’re all sorry Barron is retiring, Don. He leaves a huge hole in our sports coverage and will be missed by so many of us.
Q: On the coaching search by Texans, this year it seems the new slogan for teams looking for the HC is a leader of men. In a football world of Alphas, not all coaches and players are Alphas. Bill O'Brien wasn't necessarily an Alpha. Mike Vrabel was an Alpha, as evidenced by the many complimentary comments from Texan players during Vrabel's time here. It's been no surprise to me that the Titans have excelled under Vrabel's stewardship. He's supported by a good GM who has had some recently productive drafts. I won't be surprised when the Titans go Super Bowling. How does an NFL owner or GM identify that Alpha quality in a HC candidate? — Roy S.
A: It’s pretty easy to identify, Roy, if you know what you're doing, have a lot of experience in the NFL and have a lot of contacts to investigate candidates’ strengths and weaknesses.
Q: It seems like almost everybody has agreed that Watson will be traded. I don’t think Caserio will do that, but what do you think it takes for Watson and the Texans to get their relationship back on track? And do you think this has hurt the search for a new HC? Med venlig hilsen. — Kristian S.
A: I don’t think it’s hurt the search, Kristian. There are only 32 of these jobs in the world, and they’re coveted by so many. Not to mention the new coach will probably get about $5 mil a year — lots more than an assistant coach. Med venlig hilsen to you, too.
Q: If Watson does not trust Easterby, and Caserio has said that they have a long-term relationship, don't you think it's just better for them to part ways? Get someone who wants to be here and can buy in to what Caserio is building, otherwise there will always be some kind of drama. Watson seems to be a great guy, but he wants to be at a place where he feels like he's respected, clearly he feels that he has not been, right or wrong! I don't care how much money you make, nobody wants to go to work looking over their shoulder every day. Sounds like a clean break is needed. I'd hate to see him go, but hey they traded Olajuwon! — Robert T.
A: Why would Watson have to look over his shoulder every day, Robert? Perhaps they will make a clean break. Perhaps it’ll get real ugly like Harden. Or maybe they can work it out if Watson wants to work it out.
Q: With Cal "running” things, Texans deserve what they get. But the fans don’t deserve this crap. Jack Easterby is now a known problem — nationwide — but Cal can’t see it. Respected SI writers go on for pages about his crap. Cal: unjustified and we own it in the building. It's beyond reproach that the building is an abject disaster. Did Cal say why he is retaining JE? Did he say why, when it's jeopardizing the team, Deshaun, the fans, etc; was he asked to address and respond to the litany of the events outlined in the SI article? Was he asked if 20 percent of that is true, all is probably true, Why is JE being retained? Did he answer why he is being retained when, according to O’Brien, he was intimately involved in all the horrendous decisions since he arrived? If he wasn’t asked these things, then why not?? These are the questions that 90 plus percent of Texans fans deserve answers to. And last, was he asked why, in view of all of the press and backlash, locally and nationwide, he hasn’t had a press conference so that he can field questions from a variety, not just insiders? Cal is damn lucky he’s here in Houston, and not another city where the media and fans demand performance and are exacting in their review. See Philly! Firing a pretty damn good coach who Texans ought to consider, but JE won’t approve, so no chance. Not to mention not even interviewing Saleh and asking for Bieniemy 2 weeks late. The ticket holders should boycott! Once Cal’s cash train comes to a grinding halt, maybe things will change. — Steve C.
A: Steve, I guess you missed McNair answering every question the media had about Easterby on the Zoom call with the media. I guess you missed what’s been reported over and over: It’s Caserio’s search and hire. As soon as he got here for his first day on the job, he notified the league he wanted to interview five coaches, including Bieniemy. And I guess you’ve missed all those times it’s been written, broadcast and tweeted: McNair says Easterby is here because the owner thinks he does a good job. No other explanation is necessary.
Q: Shades of the Houston Oilers. Reminds me of the yesterdays when Bud Adams didn't know what he was doing. McNair standing up for a man that was totally bamboozled and steamrolled by Bill O'Brien is a joke. It just tells me that the owner doesn't have a clue about football management. Mr. McNair seems to be a good man, and a man that knows how to make money. But his personnel skills are lacking. By standing up for Easterby, he has endorsed the failures of the past 5 years under O'Brien. The man that dismantled the Texans and left them non-competitive. But Deshaun knows Easterby is zero help. Why didn't Deshaun say something before or after he signed his huge contract? Why did J.J. Watt wait so long to speak out? Easterby was there to listen to them. I predict the Texans will continue to lose for the next 5 years. New coach? Who wants this job? Texans will have to beg to get a coach. Interviews mostly with retreads Jim Caldwell, Marvin Lewis? Are you kidding me? Losers. Watt will be gone to a potential championship team like Green Bay. The Texans will not beat the Jaguars again. You will see what real coaching does. Watson will remain unhappy and frustrated fans will still buy tickets, based on a sales pitch. Easterby will get it done. Seen it all before. Thank God I don't have season tickets with a seat license. — Kelley J.
A: I disagree about failure for the last five years with OB. Winning four division titles in five years and two playoff games isn’t failure. Let’s be fair. The Texans have interviewed eight candidates, including five who’ve never been a head coach. By the way, some other retreads who’d been fired: Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Tony Dungy, Marty Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves, Andy Reid, Jon Gruden and Gary Kubiak, just to name a few.
Q: I'm from Boston and subscribe to Texas Sports Nation to read your stuff. We had a sportscaster named Bob Lobel who would show highlights of former players and say, "why can't we get guys like that." I hope Nick and Easterby (who reminds me of Rasputin and I'm glad he's Houston's problem) ship him (Watson) to New England. Stranger things have happened. More likely the Jets for Darnold and great picks. — Vic L.
A: Vic, what do you have to offer for Watson to go to the Patriots to work with Belichick and Josh McDaniels.
Q: I’m sure I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but in my view, regardless of how his role evolved, a critical part of Easterby’s position was to maintain a good relationship with players. Most of all, the team leaders such as Deshaun Watson. If he has not done this, he has failed at a significant part of his job. Just like with any other job, I don’t really think it matters what the reasons are. He has obviously failed at it. Personally I try to form my opinions from the information I have available to me. There is a lot of information out there regarding Deshaun Watson, from his childhood, to college, to NFL. He does not appear to be someone to me that is unreasonable or difficult to deal with. If he was, then maybe this breakdown with Easterby would be excusable. I think where there is smoke, there is fire. And there is just too much smoke around players having problems with Easterby. So, in my opinion, McNair keeping him around may not be the easy way out, but it also may not be the right decision. I just don’t think it should have been that hard for Easterby to maintain those relationships. Sometimes in life if situations degrade then it just needs to be changed, regardless of the perspectives of those involved. — David G.
A: David, Easterby’s job has nothing to do with his relationship with players. That was at New England. He’s the executive vice president of football operations who works closely with the GM who has final say on all football decisions.
Q: McNair’s every word, action and decision show he is simply not intelligent enough to be an NFL owner. The smartest thing Cal McNair could do is find someone smart enough to operate the Texans football franchise and step out of the way. Maybe that person is Nick Caserio? Maybe that is the new real question? — Deanne N.
A: The idea, Deanne, is for Caserio to hire the coach to be the face of the franchise, and McNair and Easterby slip into the background.
Q: Texans fans badly need to understand the what and why the Texans have completely fallen apart since the playoff game last year against Kansas City. While Bill O’Brien had not won a Super Bowl, he had considerable success and seemed on the brink of winning the big one. The crazy trades, the demise of any defense, all this attention of Jack Easterby, etc. What does he do that is good or bad? It appears that with the passing of Bob McNair, things have deteriorated greatly. The Chronicle needs some in-depth reporting on the matter to the benefit of those paying the tab. No diatribe from the two columnists, please. — Charles M.
A: Charles, if I had a dollar for every time I’ve written about the demise of the Texans dating back to the second quarter of the Kansas City playoff game I could buy out Cal McNair.
Q: I take it you watched the Bills vs Baltimore playoff game. The Bills beat Lamar Jackson badly. That drops the stock of Balt's OC. They couldn't do that against Watson. That game only made Watson more priceless. There's not another QB in the NFL capable of the DW4 heroic plays. But what does Houston gain by declaring him untradeable? If the D can't improve substantially during his contract, he's going to leave Houston when it expires. Doesn't it make more sense to ask for a king’s ransom now? Hypothetically speaking, if Houston were to trade him, where does Chicago rank as a trade partner? All things considered, can Houston rebound defensively and compete for the AFC crown next year? — Juan B.
A: Watson has a no-trade clause. I doubt seriously he’d agree to be traded to the Bears. I don’t think the Texans can compete for the AFC crown next season, Juan. If they trade Watson, they’ll compete for the first pick in the draft.
Q: What would happen if J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson both say they don’t want to play for the Texans as long as Easterby is in the building? What would happen if the Texans hire a coach that Deshaun Watson isn’t happy with? Easterby knows that he is toxic amongst the best players on the team and Cal knows that. What if Watson says I’m not coming unless Easterby is gone or if J.J. Watt says I’m not coming back to camp unless Easterby is gone? I feel bad for Caserio. — Glen K.
A: I feel bad for Caserio, too, Glen. He’s waited 20 years for a chance to become a GM and he starts with this mess.
Q: Hard to imagine the hold Easterby has on McNair. His background purportedly was as a character coach when he was brought in. Instead he has apparently done only one thing right — ingratiating himself with McNair and Caserio. It’s hard to imagine we may lose an unbelievable talent like Watson because of a character like Easterby. His skill set was supposed to be building team chemistry. He has done a tremendous job of doing the exact opposite. It sounds like players see him for what he is, a poser. Amazing! Casserio could salvage everything by calling Bieniemy and offering him the job immediately. Watching KC’s offense and the higher level creativity is just too good to pass on. Or we can take the safe route, dawdle and get stuck with whomever is left and have that as an excuse. Fortunately, it will probably be a defensive coach and we will need a great D without Deshaun here. — Mike D.
Q: I am a daily reader. I just got through reading the Sports Illustrated article online about Easterby. I'm trying to figure out other than the fact that he prays, what is the specific issue. Maybe everybody's avoiding coming right out and saying it due to a legal liability, but I have been unable to find anything other than vague references to the fact that Easterby's being here has somehow caused the Texans to play terribly. I also have not seen anything in the media that says a billionaire has to run his business according to public opinion which may not even represent the majority. I'm not a defender of either person, it just seems that there's a lot of smoke and not the whole lot of specific fire. No one wants to lose so maybe that's the biggest thing. Why Deshaun Watson at 25 thinks he should be able to dictate to the people who pay him a hundred and fifty million dollars is still a puzzle to me. According to SI online when asked why Caserio wasn't on their list, Korn Ferry said they knew that he was already on the Texans list so they did not add his name. I have not seen this detail in any local media, which seems to make the issue of Caserio not being on Korn Ferry list something that we should think about. — Charles W.
A: Charles, I don’t give a damn about Korn Ferry. Jed Hughes recommended they hire Brian Schottenheimer as their head coach, and he was fired by Seattle. A search firm is paid to compile information and make recommendations. This was the third time the Texans tried to interview Caserio dating back to 2017 when they had to replace Rick Smith. Caserio is one of the most respected personnel men in the NFL. That’s not debatable. Who gives a hoot if he was on the Korn Ferry list?
Q: I have no insight into the operation of a football organization. My Ph.D. is in management and have a very good understanding of organizations outside of football. I don't understand the upset QB and I am guessing many of his supporters. Let me frame my question. The CEO runs the company. His/her direct reports are probably VP's, then there are managers and report to them are various staff. I was once a college president. If a hot shot staff member had demanded that he/she be part of the selection of a VP or their direct boss I would tell them they have no business selecting senior members of my staff and I would guess that other CEO's would tell the staff member the same thing or would no longer have a job. Here is my question. Why does Watson think he should be in or hiring Caserio or the next head coach? — Rudy S.
A: That’s the way it is in just about every business, Rudy, but not the business of sports.
Q: I have not written to a newspaper writer in my 71 years on this earth, but I am highly disappointed in what is going on with the Texans. I have been a season ticket holder since 2003 and have stood by the team each year be it good or bad. Deshaun Watson has lost my respect as a player and a person. He has lowered himself to acting like a spoiled NBA player. He is paid to play football not manage the team. People are down on Jack Easterby but no reasons have been put forth for their dissatisfaction. So what is the story? The McNair family owns the franchise and funds it so that makes them the boss. I would like to see Deshaun play for the Texans but what he is doing right now is destructive and stirring up trouble for the team, fans and ticket holders. This kind of behavior is going to drive away ticket holders. A sad season ticket holder. — Jo Ann C.
A: Many feel as you do, Jo Ann. Unfortunately, times are different. Agents and players have a lot more power than they used to.
Q: It’s sad that a premier QB is now executive management. He should do his job and improve like not throw 1 interception ever again. So now we’ve established no one’s perfect, lets address coaching. Texans hired great GM, let him do his job. — Stephen G.
A: I agree, Stephen, to let Caserio do what he was hired to do.
Q: I'm heartened by last week's Mailbag participants whose concerns I shared about religion and hiring within the Texans organization. And thank you for your enlightening information in that regard. Should Deshaun Watson (or anyone) have been angered that Bieniemy wasn't interviewed before Caserio was hired to search for a coach? That confusion seems like an easy thing to smooth over. If not and Watson leaves, the organization would no longer be qualified to represent the great city of Houston. Especially after the excellent season Watson had. I'm not sure which he needed less, the support of a running game or Bill O'Brien calling plays. Am I wrong in thinking if Jamey Rootes resigns, as he was rumored to want to after all the reported GM hiring chaos, it means all that reported chaos is true? In which case, aside from Watson leaving, Rootes departing would also be a strong indictment of Cal McNair's management. If the Texans hire a defensive coordinator as head coach, does that mean Tim Kelly has a chance to stay on? — Tim K.
A: I should point out, Tim, that you’re not the Tim Kelly. I’ve said all along I thought it was a waste of time to interview a candidate before the GM was hired. Caserio is running the search, and McNair will sign off on his recommendation. I think Kelly has a chance to stay no matter who they hire. Watson wants him, and he helped Watson have his best season.
Q: What value does Jack Easterby bring to the Texans organization? How much value does this man hold if keeping him around could cost the team the one thing an NFL team needs to succeed - a transcendent quarterback. With the SI articles, it's clear there's something rotten in NRG. You keep saying Watson won't be traded, but every day that goes by is a day that the possibility increases. Firing Easterby would be the beginning of mending fences. I don't think McNair and Caserio are willing to do it. Houston seems to have got lucky to be able to interview Eric Bieniemy due to the bad press about the lack of Black coaches being hired this offseason. Although there's a limited number of these jobs, it seems to be less desirable with Easterby in the building. Can you just explain, what does that man do? If it's to provide comfort, it ain't working. It would be better the Texans bring in rescue puppies and kittens in to pet once a week. — Louis E.
A: His job isn’t to provide comfort, Louis. He’s the executive vice president of football operations. He does things on the football side to help the GM, who has final say. Easterby’s involved in everything on the football side and some things on the business side.
Q: Instead of being a reporter, how about being the GM of the Texans for a day. Granted you aren’t able to interview the coaching prospects or D4, but if you had the chance to pull the strings what would you do for coach, QB and other positions you feel need to be addressed. — Mike P.
A: I’d bring in the two or three finalists for in-person interviews. Then, I’d make my recommendation to McNair. After he signs off on it, the coach would be hired. The coach and I would sit down and figure out a way to get Watson to communicate with us. We’d offer to fly to where he is for some one-on-one communication. I might even bring my OC, Tim Kelly, along since Watson was adamant he wanted to keep Kelly as the play-caller.
Q: You have certainly added logs on them. Marketing fire to help Caserio maintain the less than stellar historical glow of the burdened mid market Texans! Honestly, in my 35 years living my life in Texas, which I continue to celebrate; for the life of my I still wonder how we get mid market and Houston disproved as in the same sentence! Stay strong John! — Bob B.
Q: The history of the Texans success is directly related to their players injuries each season. Recognition of this should be the team’s primary goal for its future. Miami coach Don Shula installed a program to prevent player injuries, and that likely played significantly in their success. If ever a team needed such a program, it's the Houston Texans. — Don S.

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We have made it through the first eight weeks of the 2020 season and it’s time to hand out some trophies (not literally of course, since we have to wait until the year is over). I already did this when I predicted the entire season about a week before we kicked things off and a lot of the candidates I mentioned back then, you will here again, but at the same time, some guys have kind of come out of nowhere. For some of these categories, three names were enough, while for a few others I mentioned two more notables. So who have been my MVP, Defensive Player and Coach of the Year, among others, for the first half of the season? Plus, at the bottom I added my All-Pro teams at this point.
Also make sure to check out my detailed recap of NFL week eight.
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Most Valuable Player:

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I think three candidates have kind of separated themselves from the rest of the pack in this MVP discussion and the guy I have at the top has been there all season long, because no other player has been more valuable to his team and their success.
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1. Russell Wilson
I have always said Wilson is one of the premiere quarterbacks in the NFL and that the only thing holding him back from quite putting up the same numbers other MVP candidates have produced is his own coaching staff and the conservative he plays in. Well, this year Brian Schottenheimer & company have finally listened to Seahawks fans screaming to “let Russ cook” and he has been smoking hot. Russ is top three in completion percentage (71.5%) and yards per attempt (8.4) and yards per game (307.3), leads NFL with a passer rating of 120.8 and 26 touchdown passes, which makes up for more than one TD every 10th attempt – also an NFL-best mark. And the crazy part is that his team has needed him to be that explosive, since Seattle’s defense has given up an average of 460.9 yards per game – easily the most of any team in the league. The Seahawks themselves are scoring an NFL-best 34.3 points per game and their season-low(!) 27 points came in a matchup, where he led one of his two game-winning drives on the season (versus Minnesota). He is also the only quarterback with multiple starts to not have lost a fumble all season long. The only blemish on Wilson’s resume and the Hawks lone loss came at Arizona in a Sunday Night game, where their quarterback threw three of his six interceptions on the year and that was his only performance that he had a passer rating below 100 in. However in that game, he lit up the Cardinals with the deep ball and made some incredible plays throughout the night. And if you break down the three picks he threw, two of them came by defenders who had to cover a ton of ground and no quarterback would have anticipated them to even be a factor, while on that third one D.K. slowed down for a back-shoulder throw The Seahawks put 35 points on the Patriots, 31 against the Dolphins number-one scoring defense and just now 37 against San Francisco – and it could easily been more if the came wasn’t completely out of hand in the fourth quarter.
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2. Patrick Mahomes
I know Mahomes has five TD passes less than Russ despite having played one more game, but he also only has one interception on the year – and that one came when he pushed it downfield on a 4th & long towards the end of the Chiefs’ only loss on the season. He is also behind only Wilson in quarterback rating (115.0) and first in QBR (86.8), with the latter thanks to what he has done taking off when nothing is there, which he has really gotten great at once he sees 2-man or other favorable situations. Of the 34 times he has taken off, nine have resulted in first downs and he finished in the end-zone twice. Of course this is still about Mahomes and Kansas City trashing opposing teams with all those weapons in the passing game. With defenses playing a lot more soft coverage against the Chiefs, Mahomes has taken advantage underneath with those short completions, while still finding ways to allow his receivers to uncover on secondary routes and getting the ball to them from all different angles. So his intended air yards may not be overly impressive, because of all the screens and stuff they draw up, and he might “only” be sixth in yards per attempt, but Pat is still tied for first with 31 passes of 20+ yards. He absolutely picked apart the Ravens defense in that huge Monday Night showdown, which tried every coverage and blitz package imaginable and the quarterback had an answer for all of them, completing some throws nobody in the league could make. The Chiefs’ season-low in points (23) came at the Chargers, when he certainly didn’t start out great, but still found a way to lead a comeback and win in overtime. And even in their only loss of the season against the Raiders, it was the opposing offense converting a sneak on fourth down, that denied Mahomes a chance to finish their late push.
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3. Aaron Rodgers
When you look at Rodgers’ most impressive statistic for his career it is his ridiculous touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.47, which is a full point better than the next-closest guy (Russell Wilson) and twice as good as anybody that hasn’t played in the 2010’s. Well, right now he has the second-best rate for this season, behind only Patrick Mahomes at 20-2, and those two picks came in his only bad game at Tampa Bay. I’m not going to sugercoat this in any way – after going up 10-0 and once that pass-rush from the Bucs was unleashed, he could not get anything going. With that being said, he has been phenomenal in the six other contests, having throw less than 3 TDs in only of them and his lowest QB rating being at 107.6, with both of those thing coming against Detroit in week two, when the Packers just didn’t need him to crazy and still put up 42 points, as Aaron Jones got loose on multiple occasions. And Rodgers had not fumbled until that very last play we saw from him, as he was stripped from behind while trying to launch a Hail Mary at the end of the Vikings game. By the way, he was incredible in that loss as well, as the only two times the offense was stopped, Equanimeous St. Brown had consecutive passes go off his hands and then the refs for no apparent reason picked up the flag on a blatant pass interference against Robert Tonyan inside the red-zone. Rodgers leads the league with seven completions of 40+ yards and right now Drew Lock is the only starter in the league with a higher mark in yards beyond the sticks (0.9) – which when you look at the rest of the numbers isn’t always an endorsement for the second-year QB, as Lock has three more INTs on 100 less attempts. And outside of Davante Adams – who has missed some time – Rodgers hasn’t really been able to rely on any of his receivers, as they are tied for the most passes dropped at 18, even though the other two QBs with that number have played one more game than Green Bay.
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Notables: Josh Allen & Tom Brady
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Offensive Player of the Year:

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Of course, you could name the same three candidates from the MVP section here, but I tried to mix things up a little and give you three other names worthy of the award. And that includes only one quarterback.
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1. Alvin Kamara
I know that this award is often given to quarterbacks as well and it looks odd that Kamara is 16th in the league in rushing (431 yards), but he is averaging five yards per carry and he is also second to only DeAndre Hopkins among all players with 55 catches for an additional 556 yards through the air – so just over 10 yards per grab. Right now he is on pace for 2256 scrimmage yards on right around 20 touches a week, while he would also easily break the NFL record for receiving yards for a running back (1271 over 1191 from Charley Taylor in 1966). And he leads the league not only in scrimmage yards but also percentage of his offense’s yardage (36.5%), while being tied for first with 12 plays of 20+ yards on the season. While he has caught a couple of key wheel routes and can win as a downfield receiver, so far 94.5(!) percent of his receiving yards have come after the catch, constantly bailing out his quarterback by making something happen after checkdowns and ripping off big gains in the screen game. I mean against the Packers he caught 13 of 14 targets for 139 yards and he was the only reason they were in that game in the first place. The explosiveness, the contact balance and the ability get six or seven yards when there should be only three is unmatched. Kamara has scored reached the end-zone seven times and his only fumble, he recovered himself again. He is by far the best player on this Saints offense and the team overall and in the absence of Michael Thomas, he has been asked to shoulder the load for them. Since his lowest output in the season-opener, Kamara has not been held under 119 scrimmage yards in any other week.
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2. Kyler Murray
While Murray is only 16th among current starters in passing yards per game, only Russell Wilson and by about half a yard Justin Herbert have put up more combined passing and rushing yards at 326.3 a week. Right now, only Joe Burrow and Matt Ryan have been responsible for more combined first downs and touchdowns, and those two have played a full matchup more than the Cardinals and both just won their second games of the season, while Kyler is doing it in service of a 5-2 team, which outside of his own production has averaged less than 100 rushing yards on a weekly basis. As a runner, he leads all NFL players (with double-digit carries) in yards per attempt at 6.7 and 35 of his 65 carries led to first downs or touchdowns (seven TDs). I would not call Arizona’s passing game overly explosive, as Kyler is barely in the top 20 in yards per attempt (7.3), 20+ yard throws (21) and average yards to the sticks (-0.9), but a lot of that has to do with what Kliff Kingsbury wants to do with his Air Raid-based offense, while his QB is tied for second with six throws of 40+ yards and already has an 80-yarder on his resume. Plus, with that guy at the helm, they have the potential to get as hot as pretty much any team out there. Kyler had one really bad game against the Lions, in which Detroit used a lot of different coverages that had them all over the Cardinals route patterns, but #1 has been outstanding the rest of the year and I don’t come away from a lot of games thinking that a lot of his production was served up by the play-calling. I said a couple of weeks that Deshaun Watson is the most elusive quarterback in the league, but nobody is quicker at evading defenders and keeping himself upright. We all love Russell Wilson and his ability to extend plays, but just compare these numbers – Russ has been pressured 79 times and he’s been hit or sacked on 50 of those, Kyler on the other has been pressured 44 times (significantly less due to more of a horizontal passing attack), but he’s only been sacked nine times and taken five more hits (14 total). And Kyler already outdueled Russ on Sunday Night of week seven.
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3. Derrick Henry
King Henry is once again holding the crown for the league’s rushing leader at this moment. His 775 rushing yards are 123 more than any other player in the league, and while that is in correlation with handling the most carries of all RBs, he still averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, despite being asked to grind away games for the Titans. Right around 30 percent of his touches has resulted in a first down or touchdown (43 total first downs and eight TDs) and about 58 percent of his total yardage has come after contact. Nobody wants to tackle King Henry, because he can plow through 300-pounder defensive linemen at the point of attack and throw DBs around like ragdolls, when he gets around the edge (looking at you, Josh Norman), but at the same time, once he gets rolling, he is as fast as any player on the field, which we saw already when he ripped of an NFL-long 94-yarder against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. The difference between Henry and some of the other franchise backs is that he doesn’t contribute a whole lot in the passing game outside of a few screens (10 catches for 81 yards), but nobody takes on a bigger load than this guy and he really sets the table for everything the Titans do, with the heavy play-action and bootlegs. Usually this guy really starts rolling over the second half of the season, but he has been dominant right from the start this year. When you look at the three games Henry didn’t put 112+ yards on the ground, in two of them the opposing defense totally sold out against the run and Ryan Tannehill completed 75 percent of his passes with seven TDs and no picks, while the team scored 33 and 42 points respectively, and the other one came against the Steelers’ dominant defensive front. On the other hand, he also has the most scrimmage yards in a game all season, when he destroyed the Texans for 264 yards and took over that one overtime drive, to win it.
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Notables: The three MVP candidates

Defensive Player of the Year:

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I think there is pretty clear top three in this one as well and I can honestly see an argument for each one of them to be the pick, but I have stuck my selection (and bet) of a guy I believed would come back even hungrier in 2020.
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1. Myles Garrett
This was my preseason pick for Defensive Player of the Year and similar to Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign, I have been riding this all season long. Myles Garrett is tied for a league-high nine sacks and only two players have hit the opposing quarterback more overall than him. The only two games he didn’t record a sack (the season-opener at Baltimore and this past week against the Raiders), the opposing team ran the ball on 56 and 65 percent respectively and somehow all those sacks he has put up have come in big moments – a strip on Joe Burrow to set up the offense at the Bengals 1-yard line after they were just stopped on fourth down in an eight-point game, another against Washington after the Browns finally extended the lead to more than one score, stripping Dak Prescott when the game was tied at 14 and set off a 27-0 run, setting the offense up in field goal range for their first points in the rematch with Cincinnati and while it won’t be found on the stats sheet, he also directly forced a safety on a throw-away by Philip Rivers to make it a two-score game against the Colts. The only other player that has forced four fumbles just like Myles is Ravens DB Marlon Humphrey, who has become a Peanut Punch specialist – and Garrett has also recovered a couple of those himself, with both of them directly setting up touchdown for the offense from short distance. Plus, he is excellent run-defender, who can yank blockers to the side and makes tackles around the line scrimmage, with only one miss on the season. Myles has grown so much with his technique as a pass-rusher, while obviously having that incredible combination of length and athleticism, but also might have gotten “looser” in his movement and how he can torque his body different ways. And the Browns are now using him as a mismatch against guards on passing downs quite a bit.
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2. Aaron Donald
Just like he has been the last five years or so, Aaron Donald is right up there with the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and I would not be surprised at all if he won his third trophy at the end of the season. Donald is tied with Myles Garrett for the league-lead in sacks at nine and he is top five in total pressures (22) and QB hits (13), despite offensive lines sliding his way constantly. We have literally seen this man get triple-teamed and lift All-Pro offensive linemen off their feet, but only T.J. Watt has a higher pass-rush win percentage according to Pro Football Focus (25%). This guy is the only player with a four-sack performance this season and not only does he obviously contribute in a major way himself, but because of the way he gives his teammates one-on-one’s consistently, his Rams only have three other teams in front of them in terms of sacks as unit (26), despite not having a lot of names that you would recognize, outside a questionable former first-rounder in Leonard Floyd. And I just mentioned the only two players with more forced fumbles than Donald (Garrett and Humphrey), who has three himself. He has also recorded seven tackles for loss and only missed one of his 26 tackling attempts. The crazy part with his game is that for all the numbers you can actually see, there’s about twice as many plays he makes that don’t show up anywhere in the records. The only reason I don’t have him at number one is that he has four games without a full sack and that Garrett has been a little more consistent at coming up with those real game-changing plays. Still, AD is clearly right up there.
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3. T.J. Watt
And then this guy is as complete an edge defender as we have in the league. Watt can set the edge at the point of attack, he can chase ball-carriers down from behind as the unblocked man at the line and this past Sunday against Baltimore, we saw him take both guys at times on those read-option plays. Of his 25 tackles on the season, 12 have resulted in lost yardage, which is tied with teammate Vince Williams for a league-high. As a pass-rusher, Watt is “only” tied for fourth with 6.5 sacks, but his 21 hits on opposing QBs is four more than any other player in the league and the 27 total pressure are three more than the next-closest guy as well, while PFF has him tagged with the highest pass-rush win rate in correlation with that (27%). And he headlines the most destructive pass-rush in the league, as the Steelers defense leads the league with 30 sacks and easily has the highest pressure percentage of any unit out there at a whopping 35.0 percent. Watt has also batted down three passes and picked one off. He can do your classic flat drops or carry guys out of the backfield at times, but he can also stand up and move around the line to blitz from different angles or act as a spy at times. He surprisingly has yet to force a fumble this season, but I can remember right now on the very first play he was on the field against the Titans, a good 20 quarterbacks would have lost the ball in that moment with Watt swiping at it, and since he led the league in that category last season, I have no doubt he will rack up a few of those FFs still.
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Offensive Rookie of the Year:

This award has two quarterbacks battling it out at the top right now, with one young star receivers and a couple of running backs – one picked in the first round and the other going undrafted – who are also in the running.
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1. Justin Herbert
I get that coaches always try to protect their young quarterbacks and want to give them time to learn from the sidelines, but I hope everybody gets that Herbert and Tyrod Taylor aren’t even close to each other. And I have always liked Tyrod as a bridge-starter or game-manager type, but this rookie QB has taken this offense to a completely different level. When you just look at the schedule, you see that the two QBs have the same amount of wins on the season (only one for Herbert against the Jaguars), but in the season-opener the Chargers only put up 16 points against the Bengals, who have given up 28.2 per week from that point on, and L.A. has scored 27.2 points a game since then. It is not Herbert’s fault that his defense has let him down in the second half of games and allowed big comebacks. He took Patrick Mahomes & company to overtime, had his team up 24-7 against the Bucs before a fumble a minute until halftime started turning things around, he outplayed Drew Brees at the Superdome and was inches away in overtime from pulling off a game-tying or -winning drives and before the Bolts defense allowed an epic collapse last Sunday, they were dominating the Broncos 24-3 midway through the third quarter. The way Herbert has opened up the offense with the deep ball is incredible, with two 70+ TDs on the resume already, and he makes the whole field available, after they were very limited before. Among current starters, Herbert is third in passing yards per game (303.3) and second in combined touchdowns per game (3.0), while also being top ten in completion percentage, yards per attempt, quarterback rating and QBR. He is on pace to throw for 4550 yards and 38 touchdowns to go with about 350 rushing yards and five more TDs on the ground, over the course of a 15-game season. Those numbers would shatter all rookie records.
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2. Joe Burrow
No other team has thrown the ball more than the Bengals (330 pass attempts) and their quarterback leads the league with 221 completions on the season (67% completion percentage). With 11 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, that ratio doesn’t look overly impressive, but he has set up a lot of short rushing TDs, while Cincinnati barely cracks 100 rushing yards per game as a team and only one other squad averages less yards per carry (3.7). Until this past weekend, Burrow was tied with Carson Wentz for the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league, but thanks to a non-existent pass-rush for the Titans, in large part due to the spread-based passing attack the Bengals bring to the table, a clean week has the Bengals QB at “only” 28 sacks so far. However, he has been under the fire all season long, being tied for third with 79 total pressures, despite only eight quarterbacks spending less time in the pocket. And Burrow has yet to complete less than 60 percent of his passes in any game. I know the Bengals were blown out in that one Ravens game, but do we realize that was their only loss by more than one score? They tied the Eagles in a game where Burrow was sacked eight times and hit every other snap, they scored 30+ in their two matchups with the Browns, they were up 21-0 against the Colts in the second quarter and just this past Sunday they beat the recently 5-1 Titans by double-digits. And I would argue their rookie quarterback is by far the biggest reason for it. They are already guaranteed a better record this year than last season, as we are halfway through the season – and they are getting better every week. This guy is the future in Cincinnati. Now they just need to protect him and get that defense going.
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3. Justin Jefferson
I know that Odell Beckham Jr. was the only wide receiver to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year in the last ten years and I wouldn’t put anybody on the same level as that historic season, but since then this is the most impressive start we have seen for a rookie receiver. Through seven games, Jefferson has caught 31 of his 40 targets for 563 yards and three touchdowns. That puts him 12th among all receivers in yards per game, while having recorded a league-high 14.1 yards per target and 22 of his 31 grabs has resulted in a fresh set of downs. After a rather slow start, with five catches for 70 yards through the first two weeks, Jefferson came onto the scene with 71-yarder against the Titans and now already has three games of 100+ receiving yards, while only having played 74 percent of the snaps on the season. Jefferson has only dropped one pass and not fumbled once, while Kirk Cousins when targeting the rookie receiver, has a passer rating of over 100 despite having thrown four picks and I wouldn’t put a single one of those on the receiver definitely, as on a couple of them there was a linebacker dropping underneath a deep crosser that Cousins stared down the whole way, a badly underthrown pass into a tight window and on another one he and the rookie wideout clearly weren’t on the same page in terms of the route he was supposed to run. Through eight weeks, Jefferson is Pro Football Focus has the second-highest grade among all NFL receivers. I have always been a fan of Adam Thielen and he is Cousins’ favorite target, but to determine who opposing teams believe is more dangerous, all I have to do is watch the Packers put Jaire Alexander on the first-year man for almost the whole game last week.
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Notables: James Robinson & Clyde Edwards-Helaire
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Defensive Rookie of the Year:

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For the defensive side of the ball, this rookie selection was a little tougher, because there are a few guys that have filled the stat sheet across the board, but you don’t have those typical front-runners with a lot of sacks or interceptions, which usually take home the honors.
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1. Antoine Winfield Jr.
When I look at who I believe is the best pro player among all defensive rookies already, I would say this is the name that comes to mind. Tampa Bay’s defensive scheme isn’t simple. They ran a lot of different coverages, they can blitz anybody and there are a lot of rules that you have to understand as a member of that unit. Winfield has come in and looked him he belonged from the first time he touched the field. The rookie safety has played 515 of 522 snaps on defense and he shows up quite a bit in the box score. He has recorded 31 solo tackles and only two misses all season long, showing off what a dependable tackler he is in space. He has intercepted a passe and broken up four more, plus he has forced fumble. And call it P.I. or not, he denied a two-point conversion to potentially tie the game this past Monday Night against the Giants. To go with that, he has asked to blitz 29 times in Todd Bowles’ pressure-heavy scheme, resulting in two sacks and three extra hits on the quarterbacks. What made me a big fan of Winfield coming out of Minnesota was the versatility he presents and the fact he played so much bigger than his size would indicate. The Bucs coaching staff has utilized a lot around the line of scrimmage a lot and I love how he drives on routes in quarters coverage. He gas been “credited” with giving up just over 200 yards and two touchdowns, to go with a passer rating of 114.4 in coverage, but I think about half of that production came on two plays in the Chargers game, once with him ending up as the closest defender on a deep bomb, when the other safety should have actually opened up and then on a scramble drill play, where Keenan Allen uncovered late against him.
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2. Patrick Queen
Baltimore has a rich tradition of middle linebackers, but not so much when it comes to LSU players, with Ozzie Newsome as an Alabama alumn not having drafted a single Tigers player in over 20 years as the Ravens GM. This year, with Eric DeCosta calling the shots, they wanted to bring in a dynamic player to put in the middle of their defense and when Patrick Queen surprisingly was still on the board when they were making their first-round pick this past April, it didn’t matter which college he came from. Queen was immediately put in the starting lineup and he has been filling up the stat sheet from the start. In seven games, he has recorded 48 combined tackles, four of them for loss, two sacks to go with five more QB hits, two fumbles forced and recovered, including a long scoop-and-score. His speed at the second level to string guys out to the sideline or get to the quarterback on delayed blitzes has been a big reason this defense has gone to a higher level in 2020. Of course, he is still a first-year player and not perfect. Queen has already missed 11 tackles and there have been some moments where the rookie seemed a little confused. Two that come to mind right away – the Chiefs running that double-swing fake before throwing the TE screen over the middle, where they had Queen’s head spinning and then last week against the Steelers, where I’m pretty sure he should have covered tight-end Eric Ebron in man, but thought he had the back and that allowed Ebron to easily score on a shallow crosser from 18 yards out. He is learning and we have already seen moments, where he just sees it and goes, shutting down plays before they can even get going, while he obviously has a knack for the ball.
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3. Jeremy Chinn
One of the small-school prospects I loved in this most recent draft was this 6’3”, 220-pound safety from Southern Illinois, who put up ridiculous numbers at the scouting combine and showed incredible potential on film. So far, he has put up 38 solo tackles – most by any rookie in the league, has intercepted one pass and broken up another five. Chinn has been all over the field, with his ability to cover ground and erase angles for the ball-carrier. One of the two or three negatives I had about him and why I had him around the top 50 and not even higher was the ability to process information post-snap, to not just have his talent take him to the ball, but also the anticipation and identification of certain keys to react quickly. I believe Matt Rhule, defensive coordinator Phil Snow and that entire staff has done an outstanding job of simplifying Chinn’s assignments and just letting him around and make plays. Once he sees something happening in front of him, he can get there as fast as pretty much any player in the league and the Panthers have allowed that talent to flourish. The biggest issue for him are the ten missed tackles so far, but he’ll clean that up as well. Through eight weeks, Chinn has played 96 percent of the defensive snaps and been a fixture on the punt team as well, where he had a huge first-down run against the Falcons in last week’s Thursday Night game on a fake. As he gets more comfortable in the system, I expect him to become a bigger part of the pass-rush, because his closing speed as a blitzer is just absurd.
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Notables: Jaylon Johnson & Julian Blackmon

Comeback Player of the Year:

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As I say every year when making my preseason picks, this is the most vague award of the list, because there are so many different ways you can look at it – players who were hurt for most/all of last season, guys who had a few off-years and then those who were out of the league altogether.
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1. Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger is completing 67.9 percent of his passes and while he is only 25th in passing yards per game (232.6), a lot of that has to do with being part of a 7-0 team with the best defense in the league and trying to run down the clock late in games a lot of times. Big Ben has been really steady for Pittsburgh, not having completed less than 63 percent of his passes yet for a total of 15 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions, with five games that didn’t include any turnovers from him. Of those four picks, one came on a wobbling 50-50 pass, where Juju immediately called for pass interference, one came in the end-zone on the final play before halftime and another was batted up by a defensive lineman right into the hands of a linebacker. The Steelers are tied for third with converting 49.5 percent of their third downs and even though their run game is about average, they control the clock primarily with the short passing game, where their quarterback gets everybody involved. And when his team has needed him most Big Ben has come through, with two go-ahead touchdown drives in fourth quarters and taking over on crucial drives, with no-huddle attacks and almost exclusively going in the shotgun to spread it around. In the battle of unbeatens at Tennessee, the Steelers were up 24-7 at halftime, with Roethlisberger converting all four third downs with nine or more yards to go. This past Sunday in Baltimore in a huge AFC North clash with the Ravens, the Steelers offense could not get anything done for the first half plus, with Lamar Jackson gifting his opponents 14 points directly off turnovers, but when Pittsburgh needed to a couple of touchdowns to go ahead, their quarterback came through, as they threw the ball on 15 of those 18 plays and the three runs resulted in -1 yard (+ a touchdown). To do this after a season-ending elbow injury on his throwing arm last year is impressive.
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2. Jason Verrett
For this one we have to go all the way back to like 2015 and even before that. Jason Verrett was a first-team All-American selection in 2013 and then a first-round pick for the Chargers coming out of TCU. After showing a ton of potential in an injury-riddled rookie campaign, he became a Pro Bowler in his second season with three interceptions and 12 more passes deflected, including a pick-six. The next two years, he only played a combined five games with consecutive ACL injuries and then missed all of 2018 with a torn Achilles. His bad injury luck would follow him to San Francisco however, as he would go on IR with an ankle injury shortly after signing with the 49ers last year. Now, finally in 2020 he is back on the field and balling out. Verrett had a big interception in the end-zone against the Rams a couple of weeks ago and three PBUs the rest of the season, having started the last six games. However, it is the more advanced stats about what the veteran corner has done in coverage that are really impressive. On 25 targets, he has given up just 123 yards and no touchdowns. Plus, he is a highly dependable tackler, having only missed one attempt all season and holding opposing receivers to just 32 yards after the catch. The 49ers had major issues with their corners for large stretches of the season, as Richard Sherman has been on IR since week one and the with Emmanuel Moseley also missing some time, those other guys on the boundary have gotten roasted in some of their matchups. Not with Verrett. He has easily been a top ten player at his position so far and I don’t know how you can take him out of the starting lineup, once they have Sherm and Moseley back together.
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3. Aldon Smith
I thought long and hard about putting Rob Gronkowski here, because after Gronk look like his feet were stuck in mud early on, he and Tom Brady are not operating at a really high level again, and it almost seems like the big tight-end got his confidence back. However, I decided to go with somebody who was not one but five(!) years out of the league and as we all know, this award is a lot about the stories of these players. When Aldon Smith was drafted in 2011, it was immediately between him and Von Miller as the best young edge rusher in the league, and Smith out-produced the Broncos All-Pro with 14 and 19.5 sacks in his first two years, before he entered a rehabilitation center midway through 2013 season, when he has on path for another one of those years. The two following seasons, he looked like a shell of himself in San Francisco and then Oakland, as his mind clearly wasn’t right, with several off-the-field issues leading two suspensions that cost him the 2016 and ’17 seasons. Now, all the way in 2020, he is back with the Dallas Cowboys and especially early on he looked like a dominant player on the edge. Smith is now at five sacks on the season, with three of those coming against the Seahawks, as he was the only defensive player that kept his team in the game, with additional hits on the quarterbacks. To go with that, he has made some nice tackles in the run game, fighting off blocks and getting hands on the ball-carrier. He has cooled off a little bit these last few weeks, but the lack of production is more a product of how bad the Cowboys defense has been as a whole and long much they’ve been on the field. If he was on a team right now, that allowed him to rush in obvious passing situation, he could potentially be in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.
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Notables: Rob Gronkowski & Alex Smith
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Play of the Year:

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https://preview.redd.it/e7hgczoznhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=367a15768a5e30164afcabc575cbf2e6700ff75f
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1. D.K. Metcalf chase-down tackle on Budda Baker after the INT
One of the greatest hustle plays you will ever see and it started a meme fest on the internet.
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2. Derrick Henry 94-yard touchdown run vs. Texans
The combination of speed and power is freakish for this dude. He tore Houston a new one.
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3. Odell Beckham Jr. going 60 yards on the reverse vs. Cowboys
Of couese bad effort and angles by the Dallas defense, but this looked like Giants Odell.
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All-Pro teams:

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Since this is not about building a team or anything like that, I just went to the most used personnel sets for either side of the ball – 11 personnel and nickel defense – and filled up those spots with who I believe have been the best players at those positions. So there is differentiating between left and right tackle, 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 were put together as “EDGE” and there are just any two stand-up linebackers inserted.
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Offense:

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LT David Bakhtiari
LG Quenton Nelson
C Corey Linsley
RG Wyatt Teller
RT Duane Brown
Second team: Laremy Tunsil, Michael Onwenu, Jason Kelce, Gabe Jackson & Ryan Ramczyk
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WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR D.K. Metcalf
WR Davante Adams
TE Travis Kelce
Second team: Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson & George Kittle
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QB Russell Wilson
RB Alvin Kamara
Second team: Patrick Mahomes & Derrick Henry
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Defense:

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DE Myles Garrett
DT Aaron Donald
DT Chris Jones
DE T.J. Watt
Second team: Khalil Mack, Jeffery Simmons, Cam Heyward & Calais Campbell
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LB Fred Warner
LB Lavonte David
Second team: Darius Leonard & K.J. Wright
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CB Kyle Fuller
CB Jaire Alexander
NB Marlon Humphrey
Second team: James Bradberry, Jalen Ramsey & Jason Verrett
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FS Minkah Fitzpatrick
SS Budda Baker
Second team: Jessie Bates & Antoine Winfield
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Coach of the Year in the comments!!
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If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/11/05/nfl-2020-midseason-awards/
Also make sure you check out my detailed recap of the NFL's week eight on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXx87t1Dcvk

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears play Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET with a lot to be determined in Week 17. The Packers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which would come with the conference's only first-round bye in the playoffs. The Bears are in the postseason with a win, but they'll need to root for a Cardinals loss if Green Bay is the winner Sunday. Chicago's result could also determine whether Matt Nagy and/or Mitchell Trubisky are back in 2021. For more info on if Packers-Bears will be available to you on your local Fox affiliate at 4:25p.m. ET on Jan. 3, check out the map and information below, along with a full Week 17NFL schedule.WEEK 17NFL PICKS:Against the spread| Straight-up predictionsNFL coverage map Week 17Packers vs. Bears (506Sports) https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/23/e8/week17-fox-late-123020_w38on5aezpg71hzcqj5ewve1f.png?t=-1265148202&w=500&quality=80
The Packers vs. Bears game can be viewed in any of the redregions in the map above. If you're outside of a redregion, these are the games you'll see on Fox on Sunday:Blue:Seahawks at 49ers (in Arizona)Green:Saints at PanthersYellow:Chargers at ChiefsWhat channel is Packers vs. Bears on?The Packers vs. Bearsgame will be broadcast on Fox in regions throughout the country, denoted in red in the map above. Some of the major metropolitan areas that will carry this game include Chicago, Milwaukee, Miami, New York City, Dallas, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta and many more. If you're unsure which of your local channels is Fox, specific channel number information for your locality can be found here.How to watch NFL games on TV out of marketIf you live outside the desired area on the coverage map above, there are other legal ways to watch NFL games while out of market. One way is to subscribe to the NFL Sunday Ticket package with DirecTV. More information on that package is here.In Canada, all NFL games can be viewed via DAZN. More information on that subscription process is here. Viewers can also subscribe to NFL Game Pass, which has full access to a replay of the game soon after the live broadcast ends.NFL schedule Week 17Sunday, Jan. 3Game Kickoff time TV channel Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills 1 p.m. ET CBS Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals 1 p.m. ET CBS Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 1 p.m. ET CBS Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions 1 p.m. ET Fox New York Jets at New England Patriots 1 p.m. ET CBS Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 1 p.m. ET Fox Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 p.m. ET Fox Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 4:25 p.m. ET Fox New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles 8:20 p.m. ET NBC

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. It’s been a long, strange trip this season, but hopefully you’ve made it to this point with a postseason berth secured, or at least a chance to earn one this week. We had our first Wednesday Afternoon Football in recent memory a couple days ago, and week 13 brings us two Monday games, a Tuesday night game, and two of the latest byes we’ve seen in years (Tampa & Carolina). If the Vegas betting lines are on point, it’s also going to have a LOT of uneven scores. 7 of the week’s 15 games have point spreads of more than 6 points. A week with a lot of lopsided games can be tricky to navigate when setting fantasy lineups, but there should be some exploitable matchups as a result. Which rookies does that apply to? Let’s take a look and find out…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
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Rookies to Start:

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 13:@MIN): You already know what to do with Robinson. You can’t sit him. He’s given rock solid production week in and week out, and there is nothing about the matchup this week to scare you off of that. In Mike Glennon’s first start Robinson played all but one snap, and he was a popular passing game option as well with 6 targets and 5 catches. Minnesota ranks a middling 16th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and they’ve given up over 100 rushing yards in 4 of their past 5 games. For the season, Robinson has 80% of the Jaguars team rushing yards. He should be safe for 70+ rushing yards and a handful of catches once again, and he’s always a threat to put the ball in the end zone.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 13:@HOU): Taylor’s trip to the COVID/reserve list came at a pretty inopportune time as he just seemed to be getting back on track. I don’t think the week off is going to derail his momentum. He seems to have separated himself from Jordan Wilkins again for the early down work, and this week’s matchup is a great one for him. The Texans allow the 2nd-most RB points per game, but more importantly they allow the most running back rushing yards in the league. Nyheim Hines will of course mix in a fair amount as usual, but I’m going to make a bold claim that Taylor runs for over 100 yards and finds the end zone in this one. I think he’ll run with a little extra juice after the week off.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): This week’s attack could feature a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for Minnesota as they’re favored to win by 10 points, but you know the kind of upside that Jefferson brings to the table. Jacksonville boasts one of the worst secondaries in the league. They rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5th-most WR points per game. Jefferson has been more consistent in recent weeks after having some boom-or-bust performances in the early part of the season. He’s averaged 5 catches for 89 yards on 8 targets over the past 4 games, and found the end zone 3 times in that span. The potential limited volume in an easy win this week makes him more of a WR2 than a WR1 against the Jags.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Claypool gets a difficult matchup on paper, but his usage has been very reliable over the past few weeks and Washington has been vulnerable to big plays, an area where Claypool has had success this year. The Football Team has given up more 40+ yard completions this year (9) than every team in the league except the Chargers (10). Pittsburgh hasn’t made a living on the deep ball this year, with only 8 completions of 30+ yards on the season, but 5 of those 8 went to Claypool. Washington has allowed the 2nd fewest WR points per game and ranks 3rd in pass defense DVOA, but Claypool has had 8+ targets in each of the last 5 games and his splash play prowess gives him additional upside in this one. The absence of James Conner should result in even more passing volume for this offense despite a likely positive game script. Roethlisberger attempted a season-high 51 passes last week with Conner sidelined. Claypool’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling this week even though it looks like a tough spot. Fire him up as a WR2 this Monday.
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Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): This week isn’t a great one to bet on a ceiling game out of Herbert. The Patriots have struggled against the pass on paper, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA, but they also slow the game down when they can and limit play volume on the other side. New England ranks 29th in pace in the first half of games (seconds per offensive play run), and 31st in pace when they have a lead. They’ve allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in 6 of their 11 games, and 2 or fewer total TDs to the opposing QB in 8 of 11. They also haven’t allowed any QB they’ve faced to throw 35 or more pass attempts. Herbert has thrown the ball 40 or more times in 6 of his 10 starts. The rookie should be a solid high-end QB2 and passable low-end QB1 this week, but it’s not crazy to consider sitting him this week in 1-QB leagues if you have a replacement you really like this weekend. Lower volume could cap his upside.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Reports out of Miami on Saturday make it sound like Tua is trending toward starting this week, and he should be a reasonable QB2 if that proves to be the case on Sunday. The last time we saw Tua in action, he was lifted for Ryan Fitzpatrick due to a shaky performance against the Broncos when he was sacked 6 times. The Bengals aren’t anywhere near as daunting of a defense. They rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA and have just 13 sacks total in 11 games this season. Cincy has limited fantasy production out of Alex Smith and the combo of Daniel Jones & Colt McCoy over the last two weeks, but had allowed 2+ total TDs to 8 QBs in a row before those two games. Tua also has the benefit of a healthy Myles Gaskin at running back. I expect a solid performance in a plus matchup.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): Dobbins will return from the COVID list this week, and it comes at just the right time. Dallas is burnable opponent, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 6th-most RB points per game. We saw on Wednesday how uninspiring a healthy dose of Gus Edwards can be (10 yards and a TD on 9 carries vs. Pittsburgh). The Ravens get both Dobbins and Mark Ingram back this week, but in the last two games both were healthy for, Dobbins saw 20 carries and 4 targets to Ingram’s 7 and 2. The game script should be very positive in this game assuming Lamar Jackson is able to play. Baltimore was favored by a TD with Lamar’s status still uncertain. I’d look for 15 or so touches from Dobbins this week, and a strong likelihood he finishes the week as an RB2.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy production has been wildly uneven since the team signed Le’Veon Bell. He’s put up fantasy point totals of 12.8, 4.6, 10.9, 20.2, and 4.4 in the 5 games with Bell active. He did, however, play his highest snap share yet with Bell on the roster in week 12, and he’s found the end zone 4 times in those last 5 games. Denver is a defense that is easier to attack on the ground than through the air, especially since AJ Bouye returned from IR in week 7. The Broncos have allowed 18.5 or more QB points in 8 games this year. Bouye was inactive for 5 of them and left one of the other 3 with injury. Denver ranks just 19th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 12th-most RB points per game. There is risk with CEH every week, but this is a week that I would bet on him returning RB2 value. Make sure he suits up before pulling the trigger. He was questionable with an illness as of Saturday.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 13:@PIT): Gibson has been on fire lately, finishing as a top-8 fantasy back in 4 of his last 5 games (and the RB17 in the other). He found the end zone 8 times in those 5 games, with at least 1 score in each, but I’m here to dump a little cold water on the rookie this week. Gibson’s hot streak has coincided with an easier stretch of the schedule where Washington has played from ahead regularly. 3 of their 4 wins on the season came during the stretch, and Gibson still hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in a team loss. His passing game usage has kept him fantasy viable in most of his down weeks, but he still gives way to JD McKissic on a lot of 3rd downs when they’re trailing. In the team’s 7 losses, Gibson averages playing just 46% of the snaps gaining just 66 scrimmage yards, and Washington is an 8-point underdog against the Steelers this week. The Steelers are one of the toughest RB matchups in the league. They allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 3rd in run defense DVOA. They also should limit Gibson’s receiving output. No team in the league allows fewer RB catches and receiving yards than the Steelers do. I know it would be hard to sit Gibson this week given the output you’ve gotten from him recently, but if he doesn’t find the end zone for the 6th straight game, you may be cursing his name Monday.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 13:@CHI): Keep an eye on the health updates with Swift. Editor's Note: Swift is inactive this week. Obviously it’ll be tough to sit him if he plays, but there were reports that his snaps would be limited if he’s able to go and he was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday. The matchup isn’t a great one with the Bears ranking 5th in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 8th-most RB rushing yards per game. Swift has topped 95 scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 5 games and was heavily involved in the passing game with at least 4 targets each week in that span. I wouldn’t expect him to be nearly as involved this week if he is able to play. I’d view him more as a desperation flex, and would probably lean against playing him if he’s active.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 13:@HOU): Pittman has come into his own as the Colts’ WR1 in recent weeks, averaging nearly 7 targets per game in his last 4, and this week faces a defense that allows the 10th-most WR points per game. He had a bit of a down game last week with just 2 catches for 28 yards against the Titans, but he was targeted 9 times in that game. The volume should be there again this week. Phillip Rivers has thrown the ball 36 or more times in 5 of his last 6 games, and Pittman gets the best opportunity to take advantage of this defense against Phillip Gaines thanks to Bradley Roby’s PED suspension. Gaines has allowed a team-worst 18.3 yards per completion on throws into his coverage, and allowed a 60% completion rate. Roby was injured earlier this year 3 snaps into a game against Green Bay in week 7 and missed the following game as well. The opposing WR1s in those two games were Davante Adams (13-196-2) and DJ Chark (7-146-1). I’m not saying Pittman is going to have that kind of day, but I’d be shocked if he has another 2-28 kind of performance. He’s a great value in DFS tournaments at just $4,900 on DraftKings, and a WR3 with big upside this week.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 13:@KC): Jeudy had a predictably terrible fantasy day last week with zero catches with practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton throwing the ball. Hinton completed just one pass all day. Drew Lock should be back under center in this one, and that should be a big help to all of the receiving weapons. Keep an eye on the injury report as Jeudy is questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s got a healthy amount of upside. The entire passing game struggled in the first meeting with Kansas City, including Jeudy who posted 2 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. In the 4 games since that meeting (not including last week), Jeudy has averaged 10 targets and 76 receiving yards per week. He gets a tough individual matchup this week with Bashaud Breeland, but the Broncos should be throwing a lot this week and that volume will keep Jeudy in play as an upside WR3 if he’s able to take the field.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Aiyuk should return from his stint on the COVID/reserve list this week, and he was performing well before being placed on it. The rookie had topped 70 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games he played in, but Deebo Samuel wasn’t active for any of them. His return should make the target breakdown tougher to predict with both active. Samuel commanded 13 targets in an upset win last weekend while Aiyuk was out, and having the duo out there together this week will probably limit the ceiling for each. The Bills have a formidable secondary with Levi Wallace and Tre’Davious White each allowing right around 8 yards per target. Neither corner is allowing even 3 yards after catch per completion into their coverage. Aiyuk averages 5 yards after catch per reception. Samuel averages 13. Kyle Shanahan is creative enough that he’ll be able to scheme the ball to these guys in positions to make plays, but only Seattle has managed to get two receivers to 10 fantasy points against Buffalo in the Bills’ last 8 games. If only one 49er gets to 10, there is a chance it’s Aiyuk who has the solid game, but my money would be on Samuel after what we saw from him last week. Aiyuk is on the flex radar Sunday.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 13:@BAL): Lamb should be a floor flex play once again this week in another tough matchup. He’ll draw coverage from Marlon Humphrey in the slot. Humphrey has allowed just 6.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and zero touchdowns. The Cowboys are probably going to play from behind and will have to throw, and Lamb has 4 receptions in each of his last 4 games. He’s got the raw talent to have a big game unexpectedly, but if you’re playing him you just hope he gets in the end zone or clears 10 PPR points.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 13:@MIA): Higgins did manage to post a 5-44-1 line on 5 targets in Brandon Allen’s first start last weekend, but that’s pretty much what a successful week is going to look like for him with Burrow out. Tyler Boyd did lead the Bengals in targets last week and he gets the best individual matchup of the Cincy receivers this week, facing Nik Needham in the slot. Higgins will match up mostly with Xavien Howard, who has been tough but given up some big plays. He’s allowed just a 46% completion rate into his coverage, but has given up 15 yards per completion and 3 touchdowns on the year. Higgins is always a threat to find the end zone, and that keeps him in the flex discussion, but you’ll probably need him to score to provide a useful fantasy day.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Mooney and Mitch Trubisky seemed to have a connection early in the year even with Mooney playing limited snaps, and Trubisky continued to look his way in his return to the starting QB role. In the first two weeks of the season, Mooney turned 6 Trubisky targets into 6 catches for 74 yards and a TD. The efficiency wasn’t nearly as high last week against Green Bay, but Trubisky threw Mooney’s way 9 times in the loss. It resulted in 3 catches for 34 yards. The game script should be a bit more positive this week for Chicago, so passing volume could be down, but against Detroit’s rag-tag secondary the efficiency should be better. The Lions rank just 28th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 9th-most WR points per game. Mooney has been a dicey flex option most weeks, only reaching 60 receiving yards in 1 game this year, so he’s more of a desperation option this week, but I do like his chances of having one of his better games of the year.
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Rookies to Sit:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 13:@GB): There was a lot of talk of Hurts getting to play a bit more last week with the way Carson Wentz has been struggling, but that didn’t really come to fruition on Monday night with Hurts playing just 2 snaps. He did make a crisp throw to Alshon Jeffery on one of those snaps, but it looks like he’ll have to supplant Wentz as the starter to have any fantasy value. For his part, Wentz didn’t really do anything to inspire confidence in his ability to get the job done against the Seahawks, but Philly has so much invested in their QB that it would take an awful lot for them to bench him. Keep an eye on the situation, but for now Hurts is no more than a stash for 2-QB formats with more value in dynasty leagues than redraft.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 13:@SF): The 49ers defense allows the 7th-fewest RB points per game and has been getting healthier, and Moss is still splitting snaps with Devin Singletary. He’s been playing slightly more than his backfield counterpart, but he’s only reached 60% of the offensive snaps once all year and Cam Akers is the only running back to score 11+ fantasy points against the 49ers while playing less than 66% of the snaps. In fact, Frank Gore is the only non-Ram to run for more than 60 yards against San Francisco all year, and that was back in week 2. If Moss falls into the end zone in this one he’d return at least flex value, but I’d probably avoid making that bet. Josh Allen is as likely (actually more likely) to get the goal line rushing opportunities as Moss.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. NE): The return of Austin Ekeler puts a pretty solid cap on Josh Kelley’s opportunity going forward. It was nice to see Kelley get into the end zone to vulture a TD from Ekeler last weekend, but it’s entirely possible that he goes to the bench for Kalen Ballage when Ballage gets healthy, which could happen as soon as this week. Kelley has played less than 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and Ekeler and Ballage haven’t both been active at the same time in any of them. There is more chance of Kelley’s playing time going down than up if this backfield is healthy.
RB Anthony McFarland Jr., PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): With James Conner out after testing positive for Covid-19, this seemed to be a golden opportunity for the Steelers to get McFarland more involved and see what the rookie can do. He did play his highest snap count of the year on Wednesday against the Ravens, but that was still just 19% of the offensive snaps and he ended the day with just 4 touches and 26 scrimmage yards. The Washington defense he faces this week allows fewer RB points per game than Baltimore. You can’t roll him out there in any leagues this week even though Conner is expected to be out again.
RB DeeJay Dalls, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): With Chris Carson back in action Dallas didn’t play a single offensive snap last week. I don’t foresee a big playing time spike this week that would result in him being a playable fantasy option. The Giants allow the 14th-most RB points per game, but Dallas isn’t the one who will be scoring those points for Seattle.
RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): In case you missed the news Saturday, Ahmed is listed as doubtful and isn’t expected to play in this game. Even if he were surprisingly able to suit up, Myles Gaskin has been activated off injured reserve and will function as the lead back. Ahmed would only see change-of-pace work or garbage time work if he ends up active on Sunday.
WRs Laviska Shenault & Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 13:@MIN): Collin Johnson announced himself with some authority last weekend, posting 4-96-1 on a team-high 8 targets. We’ve seen throughout his career that Glennon likes big targets on the outside, and the 6’6” Johnson fits the bill. Unfortunately for him, the return of DJ Chark and Chris Conley this week will force him back to a backup role. The 80% snap share he played in week 12 was his highest of the season by nearly 50%. I would expect DJ Chark to be the guy Glennon looks to most often in week 13. Laviska Shenault has some upside in a plus matchup (the Vikings allow the 2nd-most WR points per game), but Viska hasn’t been anything more than a floor flex play most of this season. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just 3 times all year and found the end zone just once. He’s not the kind of player you want to bet on having a big game in a week where you may need it most. I’d prefer both DJ Chark and Keelan Cole to Shenault this week.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 13:@KC): As I mentioned with Jerry Jeudy, there’s no reason to take anything away from last week’s game with Kendall Hinton at QB. Burn the tape and throw it away and pretend it never happened when looking at Denver pass catchers. Prior to last week Hamler had been putting up reasonable performances, but still comfortably behind Jeudy’s production. In the 3 games before facing the Saints, KJ totaled 14 catches for 160 yards and 1 rush for 15. Much like the rest of the Denver offense, Hamler wasn’t great in the first meeting with Kansas City as he posted just 2 catches for 24 yards on 3 targets and a rush for 10. I like his chances to exceed those numbers this time around, but he gets a tough individual matchup. Kansas City’s slot corner L’Jarius Sneed is allowing just 4.9 yards per target on throws into his coverage, and Hamler is unlikely to see as many targets as Jeudy or fellow teammate Tim Patrick. I’d leave Hamler benched this week unless Jeudy winds up inactive.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 13:@GB): Things are trending in the wrong direction for Reagor to be able to make a fantasy impact as a rookie. He was shaping up to have WR1 usage for this team for a few weeks there, playing 73, 88, and 93% of the offensive snaps in the three games prior to week 12, but last week he lost snap share to Alshon Jeffery. Reagor played just 61% of the snaps in week 12. The Eagles are also likely to get Zach Ertz back from IR this week, and that could siphon targets away from the rest of the passing game. Ertz was averaging 7.5 targets per game before going down with injury, and while he wasn’t particularly efficient with those targets, Carson Wentz still looks to him as a safety blanket. Reagor has been averaging about 6 targets per game and 31.5 receiving yards per game over the last 4 contests, and any volume coming away from that will make him pretty unusable for fantasy purposes. The opponent this week, Green Bay, allows the 12th-fewest WR points per game, so it isn’t a plus matchup for Reagor. There’s a chance that getting Ertz back as an underneath weapon helps open up the deep passing game more and helps Reagor, but I’d rather see that before I trust it’s going to happen. The Eagles’ passing game as a whole has been a mess this year.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Dal.): I’ve tried to predict potential breakout games for Duvernay a couple times this year without much luck, so I’m not going to do that this week. Dallas is a great matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 3rd-most points per game to the position. They’ve also been burned for big plays, allowing 8 catches of 40+ yards on the season (only Washington and the Chargers have allowed more), but Duvernay hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this year. The addition of Dez Bryant has resulted in more target competition for Duvernay, making his breakout game even more unlikely. Bryant has been targeted 7 times in the last two weeks. Duvernay has been active for all 11 games and has just 23 targets for the season.
WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 13:@NYJ): The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and allow the 6th-most WR points per game, and you still can’t trust either of these rookie wide receivers to help your fantasy squad this week. Ruggs has reached double-digit fantasy points just once all year, and hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in any game. Is there a chance he hits a big play and has a good game? Sure, but if he doesn’t, I hope you enjoy your 2-25 on 4 targets line. Bryan Edwards played just 30% of the snaps last week in a blowout loss where the Raiders were throwing all game. He’s well behind Nelson Agholor and Ruggs for playing time right now.
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 13:@CHI): Kenny Golladay is on track to miss yet another game this week, but Danny Amendola seems to be on track to return. Golladay missed the first meeting with the Bears, a game where Cephus saw 10 targets come his way, but his role has pretty much evaporated since then. Quintez has been no more than the team’s part-time WR3 with Kenny out, and has seen exactly 2 targets in each of the last 4 games. He’ll need more volume than that to be useful, and you can’t count on him getting it this week.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 13:@TEN): This is a decent matchup for a tight end with the Titans allowing the 8th-most TE points per game, but Bryant has been a non-factor as a receiver since Austin Hooper returned to the lineup. Bryant has just 1 catch on two targets over the last 3 games combined despite playing more than 55% of the offensive snaps in each game. He’s more of a run blocker than a receiving threat right now, and isn’t likely to help you this week in any formats.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Kmet has seen his snap share increase in 4 straight games – he even played 30 more offensive snaps than Jimmy Graham last week – but Graham is still the tight end seeing the targets and receiving yards. Kmet has just 3 catches for 17 yards on 7 targets over the last 4 games. Graham has posted 11-100-1 on 19 targets in that same span. The changing of the guard hasn’t happened yet, and Detroit allows the 9th-fewest TE points per game.
​

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 13:@ARI): Akers hasn’t reached the point where he’s a good weekly fantasy option just yet, but he’s at least part of the rotation again. In weeks 5, 6 and 7, Akers played a total of 17 offensive snaps. Since then he’s averaged 17 per game, and his play has improved as Darrell Henderson’s has faded. Henderson has just 24 rushing yards on 18 carries in the last 2 weeks while Akers has 101 yards on 14 carries. He’s their only back that has given them any kind of spark in the running game in recent weeks, and it’s bound to lead to more opportunities for the rookie. It’s not great that 31% of his scrimmage yards from the past 4 weeks came from one play, but he’s trending in the right direction. It would take some serious balls to play him in a less than ideal matchup this week (Arizona allows the 12th-fewest RB points per game, and this is still a 3-man committee backfield), but he shouldn’t be sitting out there on the waiver wire in most leagues. He remains available in 65% of ESPN leagues.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. LV): Mims is currently one of the most overlooked weekly WR options in fantasy football. I get that the Jets are a terrible team, but there has been fantasy production to take advantage of here. Mims is available in 91% of ESPN fantasy leagues, and all he’s done since getting activated in week 7 is average 6.6 targets and 57 yards per game. In the past 3 games those numbers are at 7.7 and 66. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but it’s coming. This week he gets a favorable matchup against struggling rookie corner Damon Arnette. Arnette has allowed a team-worst 75% completion percentage on throws into his coverage, and while he hasn’t been tested deep very much, Mims has the wheels to burn him if the Jets test it out. Mims ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine while Arnette ran 4.56. The Jets as usual should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch, and I like Mims’ chances of posting his best fantasy game of the season.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 13:@SF): The 49ers are not an easy matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8th-fewest points per game to the position, but we saw again last week that Davis typically produces when John Brown is out of the lineup. Davis has caught for 50+ yards 4 times this season, and 3 of them came in the 4 games where Brown played less than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps (3 games Brown missed and one that he left early with injury). Davis has also played at least 95% of the offensive snaps in all 3 games Brown missed. Jason Verrett isn’t an easy matchup on the outside, but #1 receiver Stefon Diggs will be dealing with Richard Sherman on the other side. Davis isn’t much more than an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments or a deep league flex option, but 50+ yards is probably a reasonable expectation.
WR Isaiah Coulter, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Editor's Note: Coulter is inactive for this matchup. Coulter has been gifted a huge opportunity thanks to the positive PED test and suspension of Will Fuller this week. Coulter is expected to step into Fuller’s spot in the lineup at least until Randall Cobb returns from IR (it’s unclear how the lineup will look when Cobb returns since both Cobb and Keke Coutee are best suited to the slot), and any full time role with Deshaun Watson as your QB warrants a look from fantasy players. Coulter is a bit raw after playing at the FCS level for Rhode Island, but he has the tools and traits to develop into a decent NFL receiver. He’s got speed, running a 4.45 40-yard dash at the combine. That isn’t Will Fuller fast, but it’s fast enough. He also steps into an offense with a lot of passing volume, and one where most of the receiving volume goes to the wide receivers. The Texans are 5th in the league in passing yards with Watson averaging 291 yards per game, and 70% of their receiving yards have gone to the receivers. With that situation, Coulter is worth stashing in deep leagues, but he shouldn’t be plugged in anywhere this week. His fantasy ceiling will only come if he’s able to replace Fuller’s deep threat role, and the Colts have allowed just 4 completions of 40+ yards all year. This isn’t a week to hope for a big play from Isaiah. He should be monitored though.
TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 13:@ATL): Trautman isn’t a name that most people know, but he’s actually led the Saints in tight end snaps in each of the past 3 games, likely because he’s a better run blocker than Jared Cook & Josh Hill and the team has been run-heavy with Taysom Hill at QB. There haven’t been a ton of targets for the rookie (he’s had one catch on one target in each of Hill’s two starts, including 1-19 against these Falcons), but matchups don’t get better for tight ends than this one. Atlanta allows a league-high thirteen TE points per game. I wouldn’t play him in season-long leagues, but he’s a decent dart throw for DFS tournaments. He’ll cost the minimum for normal DraftKings tournaments, and just $400 on the Showdown slate for the Saints-Falcons game.
​
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. There are a lot of rookies with fluid injury situations this week, and COVID could strike a player at any time, so make sure to check the active/inactive updates before kickoff and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears play Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET with a lot to be determined in Week 17. The Packers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which would come with the conference's only first-round bye in the playoffs. The Bears are in the postseason with a win, but they'll need to root for a Cardinals loss if Green Bay is the winner Sunday. Chicago's result could also determine whether Matt Nagy and/or Mitchell Trubisky are back in 2021. For more info on if Packers-Bears will be available to you on your local Fox affiliate at 4:25p.m. ET on Jan. 3, check out the map and information below, along with a full Week 17NFL schedule.WEEK 17NFL PICKS:Against the spread| Straight-up predictionsNFL coverage map Week 17Packers vs. Bears (506Sports) https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/23/e8/week17-fox-late-123020_w38on5aezpg71hzcqj5ewve1f.png?t=-1265148202&w=500&quality=80
The Packers vs. Bears game can be viewed in any of the redregions in the map above. If you're outside of a redregion, these are the games you'll see on Fox on Sunday:Blue:Seahawks at 49ers (in Arizona)Green:Saints at PanthersYellow:Chargers at ChiefsWhat channel is Packers vs. Bears on?The Packers vs. Bearsgame will be broadcast on Fox in regions throughout the country, denoted in red in the map above. Some of the major metropolitan areas that will carry this game include Chicago, Milwaukee, Miami, New York City, Dallas, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta and many more. If you're unsure which of your local channels is Fox, specific channel number information for your locality can be found here.How to watch NFL games on TV out of marketIf you live outside the desired area on the coverage map above, there are other legal ways to watch NFL games while out of market. One way is to subscribe to the NFL Sunday Ticket package with DirecTV. More information on that package is here.In Canada, all NFL games can be viewed via DAZN. More information on that subscription process is here. Viewers can also subscribe to NFL Game Pass, which has full access to a replay of the game soon after the live broadcast ends.NFL schedule Week 17Sunday, Jan. 3Game Kickoff time TV channel Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills 1 p.m. ET CBS Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals 1 p.m. ET CBS Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 1 p.m. ET CBS Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions 1 p.m. ET Fox New York Jets at New England Patriots 1 p.m. ET CBS Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 1 p.m. ET Fox Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 p.m. ET Fox Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 4:25 p.m. ET Fox New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles 8:20 p.m. ET NBC

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears play Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET with a lot to be determined in Week 17. The Packers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which would come with the conference's only first-round bye in the playoffs. The Bears are in the postseason with a win, but they'll need to root for a Cardinals loss if Green Bay is the winner Sunday. Chicago's result could also determine whether Matt Nagy and/or Mitchell Trubisky are back in 2021. For more info on if Packers-Bears will be available to you on your local Fox affiliate at 4:25p.m. ET on Jan. 3, check out the map and information below, along with a full Week 17NFL schedule.WEEK 17NFL PICKS:Against the spread| Straight-up predictionsNFL coverage map Week 17Packers vs. Bears (506Sports) https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/23/e8/week17-fox-late-123020_w38on5aezpg71hzcqj5ewve1f.png?t=-1265148202&w=500&quality=80
The Packers vs. Bears game can be viewed in any of the redregions in the map above. If you're outside of a redregion, these are the games you'll see on Fox on Sunday:Blue:Seahawks at 49ers (in Arizona)Green:Saints at PanthersYellow:Chargers at ChiefsWhat channel is Packers vs. Bears on?The Packers vs. Bearsgame will be broadcast on Fox in regions throughout the country, denoted in red in the map above. Some of the major metropolitan areas that will carry this game include Chicago, Milwaukee, Miami, New York City, Dallas, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta and many more. If you're unsure which of your local channels is Fox, specific channel number information for your locality can be found here.How to watch NFL games on TV out of marketIf you live outside the desired area on the coverage map above, there are other legal ways to watch NFL games while out of market. One way is to subscribe to the NFL Sunday Ticket package with DirecTV. More information on that package is here.In Canada, all NFL games can be viewed via DAZN. More information on that subscription process is here. Viewers can also subscribe to NFL Game Pass, which has full access to a replay of the game soon after the live broadcast ends.NFL schedule Week 17Sunday, Jan. 3Game Kickoff time TV channel Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills 1 p.m. ET CBS Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals 1 p.m. ET CBS Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 1 p.m. ET CBS Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions 1 p.m. ET Fox New York Jets at New England Patriots 1 p.m. ET CBS Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 1 p.m. ET Fox Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 p.m. ET Fox Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 4:25 p.m. ET Fox New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles 8:20 p.m. ET NBC

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears play Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET with a lot to be determined in Week 17. The Packers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which would come with the conference's only first-round bye in the playoffs. The Bears are in the postseason with a win, but they'll need to root for a Cardinals loss if Green Bay is the winner Sunday. Chicago's result could also determine whether Matt Nagy and/or Mitchell Trubisky are back in 2021. For more info on if Packers-Bears will be available to you on your local Fox affiliate at 4:25p.m. ET on Jan. 3, check out the map and information below, along with a full Week 17NFL schedule.WEEK 17NFL PICKS:Against the spread| Straight-up predictionsNFL coverage map Week 17Packers vs. Bears (506Sports) https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/23/e8/week17-fox-late-123020_w38on5aezpg71hzcqj5ewve1f.png?t=-1265148202&w=500&quality=80
The Packers vs. Bears game can be viewed in any of the redregions in the map above. If you're outside of a redregion, these are the games you'll see on Fox on Sunday:Blue:Seahawks at 49ers (in Arizona)Green:Saints at PanthersYellow:Chargers at ChiefsWhat channel is Packers vs. Bears on?The Packers vs. Bearsgame will be broadcast on Fox in regions throughout the country, denoted in red in the map above. Some of the major metropolitan areas that will carry this game include Chicago, Milwaukee, Miami, New York City, Dallas, Phoenix, Boston, Atlanta and many more. If you're unsure which of your local channels is Fox, specific channel number information for your locality can be found here.How to watch NFL games on TV out of marketIf you live outside the desired area on the coverage map above, there are other legal ways to watch NFL games while out of market. One way is to subscribe to the NFL Sunday Ticket package with DirecTV. More information on that package is here.In Canada, all NFL games can be viewed via DAZN. More information on that subscription process is here. Viewers can also subscribe to NFL Game Pass, which has full access to a replay of the game soon after the live broadcast ends.NFL schedule Week 17Sunday, Jan. 3Game Kickoff time TV channel Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills 1 p.m. ET CBS Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals 1 p.m. ET CBS Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns 1 p.m. ET CBS Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions 1 p.m. ET Fox New York Jets at New England Patriots 1 p.m. ET CBS Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants 1 p.m. ET Fox Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 p.m. ET Fox Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans 4:25 p.m. ET CBS Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 4:25 p.m. ET Fox New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers 4:25 p.m. ET Fox Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles 8:20 p.m. ET NBC

Written Friday December 18th, 2020 at 8 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
We did not experience a losing week for the fifth straight time. We finished Week 14 with a 3-3 record against the spread (ATS).
Most importantly, the 5-star pick was a winner. We grabbed the Titans -7 at the Jaguars, which turned out to be an easy winner.
During the regular season, I tend to pick more underdogs than favorites. But when we get towards the final weeks of the year, I feel like the cream rises to the top and we observe great teams imposing their will on less-motivated and less-talented squads. That’s why I’m going with more favorites than usual this week.
Oddly enough, we only have three official picks this week, but one of them has the highest five-star rating. Such predictions are 4-2 this year, and an impressive 9-4 since I started this Professor MJ brand three years ago.
Let’s rolllllllll!!!!!!!
PICK #1 (5 STARS): PITTSBURGH STEELERS -13 AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
Both Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen are bad quarterbacks. Plain and simple. Since Joe Burrow got hurt, Cincinnati’s offense has scored 17, 7 and 7 points in their three matches. There is absolutely no reason to believe it will get better against the feisty Pittsburgh defense. They are going to eat them alive.
The Steelers have recorded the most interceptions this season. They also have a ferocious front seven that puts a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They are going up against a weak Bengals offensive line, so the result will be catastrophic for Cincy, unless Boyd, Higgins or Green can somehow break a long TD.
The Steelers have lost two straight games. It’s never a good spot to face an elite team after a couple of bad performances because you know they won’t take the game lighly. That’s especially true considering this is a primetime game. And they are facing a division rival.
Let’s end with an astounding statistic: the Steelers have a mind-blowing 16-3-2 ATS record over their past 21 meetings in Cincinnati. That’s remarkable!
In other words, we have all the ingredients for a blowout. There is no way Pittsburgh comes into this game unfocused. I expect them to win by at least 17 points, but it could very well end with a 30-point margin as well.
PICK #2 (2 STARS): INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7.5 VS HOUSTON TEXANS
I am a fan of the revenge factor, which would have a tendency to favor the Texans here since they lost 26-to-20 against the Colts a couple of weeks ago. Still, my money will be on Indy this weekend.
The Colts have beaten the spread the last five times they faced Houston. Even more impressive is the fact that Indianapolis holds a 12-3-2 ATS record in the past 17 meetings with the Texans, wow!
Also, the Texans will be on the road for the fifth time over the past seven weeks. That’s a lot of traveling recently.
Running back David Johnson is expected to be back in Houston’s backfield, but he has not been effective this year, nor Duke Johnson. The Colts run D has been superb this season, surrendering more than 75 rushing yards only to Derrick Henry. That included holding in check good runners like Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs. That will make the Texans unidimensional on offense.
Meanwhile, Frank Reich’s team will have plenty of ways to put points on the board. The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Things will get even worse with nose tackle Brandon Dunn and safety Justin Reid getting hurt last week.
Star left tackle Anthony Castonzo made a return from injury last week on a limited basis. He should see more action this week. The mismatch in the trenches will be incredibly in favor of Indy. The Colts running game has been ordinary this year, but rookie Jonathan Taylor seems to have found his rhythm. Indeed, he has rushed for 90+ yards in each of his last three contests.
To make matters worse, Houston pass defense is also atrocious. It was already among the league’s worst units, and it got even worse when its top cornerback, Bradley Roby, got slammed with a six-game suspension.
The Texans have nothing to play for, while the Colts need this win to keep up with the Titans atop the AFC South division.
The only way Houston covers the spread is if Deshaun Watson manages to throw at least 3-4 TD passes to compensate for his porous defense. Even though I like Watson, I don’t believe it will happen, so I’m putting my money on the Colts.
PICK #3 (2 STARS): GREEN BAY PACKERS -8 VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
New Orleans’ surprising loss to the Eagles, combined with Green Bay’s win in Detroit propelled the Packers to the NFC’s number one seed. Getting the top spot is super valuable since it is the only one providing a bye during the playoffs. For this reason, there is no way the Packers take this game lightly.
The weather forecast indicates a pretty cold day in Green Bay: around 0 degree Celsius. Aaron Rodgers is used to this kind of weather, while the Panthers don’t enjoy it nearly as much.
Carolina might get wide receiver D.J. Moore back on the field, but they are unlikely to have running back Christian McCaffrey available.
There is almost ZERO chance that the Panthers hold Green Bay’s passing game in check. Carolina has allowed at least 280 passing yards to opposing QBs in six of their last 7 games, including big production from average signal callers like Drew Lock and Kirk Cousins. How in the world are they supposed to stop Aaron Rodgers, who has been in MVP form throughout the year (ok, except against the Bucs!!).
Donte Jackson, Rasul Douglas and Troy Pride represent one of the weakest coverage trios in all of football, while safety Tre Boston has been awful.
It would be surprising if the Packers don’t score more than 30 points, so it will come down to whether Green Bay’s defense can hold the Panthers to a maximum of 20-23 points. I expect the Packers to score a boatload of points, which will force Teddy Bridgewater into passing mode and that will result into a few turnovers.
UNOFFICIAL PICKS
For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you:
​

• LEAN #1: Patriots +2.5 at Dolphins (Bill Belichick is known for eating rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, Miami’s defense is great defending the pass but New England focuses on the ground game and the Pats get three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday);
  
• LEAN #2: Bears +3 or +3.5 at Vikings (Chicago will be looking to avenge an earlier 19-to-13 loss to those same Vikings, Minnesota is 1-6 ATS as home favorites recently and Da Bears have beaten the spread in five of the past seven meetings with Minnesota);
  
• LEAN #3: Ravens -13 vs Jaguars (huge difference in motivation between these two clubs, temperature expected to be near zero degree Celsius which the Jags won’t like too much, Ravens have the top rushing offense in football while Jacksonville has allowed 120+ rushing yards to opposing RBs in three straight contests and mobile QBs like Watson and Herbert have enjoyed some success against the Jags this season).
  

It would be awesome if the 5-star pick could hit once again! Let’s beat our bookies, guys!!!!!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/hw0MDZPVmBc

Conor Orr, a Sports Illustrated “Analyst”, predicted the Bills to finish the 2020 season 7-9 and in 3rd place in the AFC East, just 1 game ahead of the Jets. He specifically mentions 3 separate difficult stretches with the 1st being Rams, Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs. Well Conor, the Bills are over half way to your projected win total and have already beaten 2 of the teams in your stretch of difficult games. Factor in that the Patriots are off to a 2-2 start and the Bills have more wins than the rest of the AFC East combined and things are looking up for the Bills and down for Conor. The Bills need to maintain their current pace and obviously would continue to appreciate help from others. To help with this, I present the fifth iteration of 2020 “Rooting Interest” posts. Included in this is the “Game Importance Scale” which will rate games from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important) to 👏 (Least Important).
NOTE: I do not consider ties or injuries for the sake of this discussion. Tiebreakers in order below are for overall standings.

1. H2H = Head to Head
   
2. WLC = Win/Loss in Conference
   
3. WLG = Win/Loss in Common Games min 4
   
4. SOV = Strength of Victory
   
5. SOS = Strength of Schedule
   

WEEK 4 REVIEW
Outside of the Bills’ game last week there were 2 other extremely important matchups. The Steelers @ Titans matchup, a battle of undefeated teams, was cancelled due to COVID but the Chiefs and Patriots, who were delayed by COVID did play, and it ended well. Because of the Chiefs victory over the Patriots the Bills now hold a 2 game lead in the AFC East with sole possession of 2nd place in the AFC. This is good news for a Bills team that is playing at a level unseen since the early 90s and is getting some help from other matchups throughout the NFL.
A little changeup this week. The Rooting Interests Record and Rooting Interests 👏 +/- will no longer include the Bills’ game. This tracking is intended to show how all other games impact the Bills and whether or not all of those other games are positively or negatively effecting the Buffalo Bills.
Rooting Interests Record: 27-30-1 (LW 7-7)
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -13 👏 (LW 0 👏)
Buccaneers @ Bears (Thursday 8:20PM) 👏
Brady vs. Bears…err…I mean Bucs vs. Bears. Each of these teams are outside of the Bills’ realm of competition in 2020 thus this game is lacking in significance on impact to the Bills’ playoff odds. As the season progresses games such as this will be analyzed for SOS & SOV impacts on the Bills’ AFC counterparts but for now maybe we root against an old “friend”.
Optimal Outcome: Bears’ Victory
Rams @ Football Team (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏
Let us consider what we do know. We know that the Bills played the Rams. We know that the Bills beat the Rams. We know that the Bills do not play the Football Team. We know SOS is increased by the teams which you do play winning games. We know SOV is increased by the teams which you beat winning games. We know that SOS & SOV are only increased here with one outcome.
Optimal Outcome: Rams’ Victory
Bills @ Titans (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏
A compliance memo released by the NFL on Tuesday read as follows, “Protocol violations that result in virus spread requiring adjustments to the schedule or otherwise impacting other teams will result in additional financial and competitive discipline, including the adjustment or loss of draft choices or even the forfeit of a game.” While I’m unsure whether or not this game will be played it is clear that a victory, however the Bills can achieve it, is massive because it means the Bills would be 5-0, 4-0 in conference, 2-0 in division, with a victory over two potential playoff teams.
Optimal Outcome: Bills’ Victory
Eagles @ Steelers (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏 👏
We have two first place teams battling on Sunday. The home team being the undefeated Steelers who, at 3-0, missed their last game due to COVID issues with the Titans. The away team being the Eagles who at 1-2-1 have a half game lead over the Washington Football Team in the NFC East. Pretty simple hear, if the NFC team can find a way to get back to 500 then it knocks another team off the crowded list of undefeated AFC teams, which includes the Bills.
Optimal Outcome: Eagles’ Victory
Cardinals @ Jets (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏
An NFC team the Bills play in 2020 against a division “rival” of the Buffalo Bills. More often than not you pick against an AFC Division member but when that team is so unbelievably bad you hope for a bump in SOS & SOV as well as worse draft picks for a team you are forced to play twice a year.
Optimal Outcome: Jets’ Victory
Broncos @ Patriots (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏 👏 👏
An AFC team the Bills play in 2020 against a division rival of the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos were a lot of people’s dark horse pick to make the playoffs in the AFC but a rash of injuries, including their QB, are making that a near impossibility. Then there are the Patriots, a lot of people’s picks to win the AFC East, who are sitting at 2-2 with losses to the Seahawks (4-0) and Chiefs (4-0). This one is simple and if it goes the way all Bills’ fans want, it could possibly result in a 3 game lead in the AFC East only 5 games into the season.
Optimal Outcome: Broncos’ Victory
Raiders @ Chiefs (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏 👏 👏
A big game for Bills’ fans to keep an eye on this week. The Bills just beat the Raiders meaning a victory for them increases SOV and knocks the Chiefs out of first place in the AFC. The Bills also play the Chiefs next week in what could be a battle of undefeated teams vying for 1st place in the AFC. This Chiefs team will end a gauntlet against the Bills where they have played 3 games (Patriots, Raiders, @ Bills) in just 11 days which will be fatiguing even for the most incredible of athletes. Hope for a hard fought game that ends in the Bills sitting atop the AFC (May require a Bills’ victory), for how long will depend on what happens on Thursday October 15.
Optimal Outcome: Raiders’ Victory
Jaguars @ Texans (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏
So this is interesting game for the Bills. The Jaguars are not particularly a threat to the Bills’ playoff hopes and the Texans are one of two teams in the AFC without a win. Making this more interesting, the Bills’ division rival Dolphins own the Texans 1st and 2nd round picks in 2021. At least for now it seems more important to reduce the Dolphins’ draft stock instead of pushing the Texans down the standings. At least for now.
Optimal Outcome: Texans’ Victory
Bengals @ Ravens (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏 👏 👏
Joe Burrow is going to be very good and Lamar Jackson is already very good. The Bengals may one day be very good and the Ravens are already very good. With the Bills playing the way they are in 2020 you must root for the team that could one day be very good as opposed to the team that is currently very good.
Optimal Outcome: Bengals’ Victory
Panthers @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00PM) 👏
Bills South vs. one of 4 remaining winless teams. The Bills’ don’t have the luxury of playing either of these teams in 2020 so this game has no direct impact on how the Bills’ season will end. Root for who you want in this game but I think it’s always optimal to root for our Baby Blue Brethren down south.
Optimal Outcome: Panthers’ Victory
Dolphins @ 49ers (Sunday 4:05PM) 👏 👏
The Dolphins lost by 10 to the Patriots, lost by 3 to the Bills, dismantled the Jaguars, and held tight with the Seattle Seahawks. Folks, the Dolphins are a good football team, but not a great football team. This is a team that is improving under a good coach with a significant amount of draft capital. This is all to say the Bills currently have a comfortable 3.5 game lead over the Dolphins meaning we need to start prioritizing a reduction in dolphins draft stock over a furthering of separation in the AFC East.
Optimal Outcome: Dolphins’ Victory
Giants @ Cowboys (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏
The NFC East disgusts me. The team with the worst record to ever make the playoffs was the 2010 Seattle Seahawks who finished 7-9 and got a home playoff game because of it. The Bills last home playoff game was December 28, 1996 and since then the Bills have finished 7-9 or better 13 times. The Cowboys or Giants could easily host a home playoff game with a record worse than 7-9 which is infuriating. No particular interest in this game so I guess root for chaos in this division knowing full well it means a non-deserving team gets the privilege of hosting a game in January.
Optimal Outcome: Giants’ Victory
Colts @ Browns (Sunday 4:25PM) 👏 👏 👏 👏
This is one of three massive games this week and in this case it pits two somewhat surprising 3-1 teams against each other. The Bills play neither of these teams in 2020 and for this reason it becomes important to try to decipher which team is more capable to maintaining their pace. The Colts who have beaten the Vikings, Jets, and Bears (0.333)? Or the Browns who have beaten the Bengals, Football Team, and Cowboys (.308)? It’s close but at least for now we root against the team with the higher SOV.
Optimal Outcome: Browns’ Victory
Vikings @ Seahawks (Sunday 8:20PM) 👏 👏
A team that Stefon Diggs desperately wishes he was still playing for in 2020 and another which is led by, arguably, Josh Allen’s only competition for MVP. Unfortunately for Diggs he won’t get the chance to play his old team and fortunately for everyone we will get to see a Josh Allen vs. Russel Wilson duel. What matters in this game is purely SOS & SOV, root for it.
Optimal Outcome: Seahawks’ Victory
Chargers @ Saints (Monday 8:15PM) 👏 👏
One of those games where you have an AFC vs. NFC matchup and consider rooting for the AFC team. The Chargers are slowly falling out of the playoff race but still have hidden talent to compete. For now, we root for them in order to reduce their draft stock as well as slightly increase the Bills SOS and SOV. For now, but possibly just for now.
Optimal Outcome: Chargers’ Victory
If all of these games went the optimal route below would be the updated AFC standings (All tiebreakers considered). Until Week 7 the assumption is that unknown tiebreakers go in the Bills’ favor:

1. Bills (5-0)**
   
2. Chiefs (4-1 TB = 4-1 WLC)**
   
3. Browns (4-1 TB = 2-1 WLC)**
   
4. Titans (3-1 TB = 2-1 WLC)**
   
5. Steelers (3-1 TB = 2-0 WLC)*
   
6. Ravens (3-2 TB = 2-2 WLC)*
   
7. Raiders (3-2 TB = 1-2 WLC)*
   
8. Colts (3-2 TB = 1-2 WLC)
   
9. Bengals (2-2-1 TB = 2-2 WLC)
   
10. Broncos (2-3 TB = 2-2 WLC & H2H Win over Patriots)
    
11. Patriots (2-3 TB = 2-2 WLC & H2H Loss to Broncos)
    
12. Chargers (2-3 TB = 1-1 WLC)
    
13. Dolphins (2-3 TB = 0-3 WLC)
    
14. Texans (1-4 TB = 1-3 WLC)
    
15. Jaguars (1-4 TB = 1-4 WLC)
    
16. Jets (1-4 TB = 0-3 WLC)
    

** Division Leader
* Wildcard

Team: DenverBroncos Division: AFC West 2019 Record: 7-9 Divisional Finish 2nd place ^{higher than the Raiders!}

Team Stats

Offense:

Category	Value	League Rank
Total Yards	298.6 YPG	28th
Yards Per Play	5.0	26th
Rushing YPG	103.9	20th
Yards Per Rush	4.1	21st
Passing Yards	194.7 YPG	28th
Yards Per Pass	6.7	T-21st
Total Touchdowns	28	T-30th
Rushing Touchdowns	11	T-22nd
Receiving Touchdowns	16	32nd
Scoring	17.6 PPG	28th
Pass Completions	312/504 (.619)	20th
Third Downs	64/202 (.317)	30th
First Downs Per Game	17.4	29th
Possession Average	29:21	21st
Sacks Allowed	41	T-16th
Turnover Differential	+1	T-13th
Penalties	110	19th
Penalty Yardage	912	18th

Defense:

Category	Value	League Rank
Yards	337.0 YPG	12th
Yards Per Play	5.4	T-13th
Rushing Yards	111.4 YPG	16th
Yards Per Rush	4.2	T-13th
Passing Yards	225.6 YPG	11th
Yards Per Pass	7.1	14th
Touchdowns	31	T-4th
Rushing Touchdowns	9	T-5th
Receiving Touchdowns	19	T-5th
Scoring	19.8 PPG	10th
Pass Completions	348/537 (.648)	24th
Third Downs	79/211 (.374)	13th
First Downs Per Game	19.1	T-9th
Sacks	40.0	T-17th
Forced Fumbles	9	T-26th
Fumble Recoveries	6	T-26th
Interceptions	10	T-25th
Penalties	121	29th
Penalty Yardage	1,041	T-28th

Coaching Changes

Title	2019	2020
Head Coach	Vic Fangio	Vic Fangio
Offensive Coordinator	Rich Scangarello	Pat Shurmur
Defensive Coordinator	Ed Donatell	Ed Donatell
Special Teams Coordinator	Tom McMahon	Tom McMahon
Quarterbacks Coach	T.C. McCartney	Mike Shula
Running Backs Coach	Curtis Modkins	Curtis Modkins
Wide Receivers Coach	Zach Azzanni	Zach Azzanni
Tight Ends Coach	Wade Harman	Wade Harman
Offensive Line Coach	Mike Munchak	Mike Munchak
Assistant Offensive Line Coach	Chris Kuper	Chris Kuper
Offensive Quality Control Coach	Chris Kragthorpe	Justin Rascati
Offensive Assistant	Rob Calabrese	Rob Calabrese
Defensive Line Coach	Bill Kollar	Bill Kollar
Linebackers Coach	Reggie Herring	Reggie Herring
Outside Linebackers Coach	Brandon Staley	John Pagano
Defensive Backs Coach	Renaldo Hill	Renaldo Hill
Defensive Quality Control	Nathaniel Willingham	Nathaniel Willingham
Defensive Assistant	N/A	Chris Beake
Special Teams Assistant Coach	Chris Gould	Chris Gould
Head Strength & Conditioning	Loren Landow	Loren Landow
Assistant Strength & Conditioning	Anthony Lomando	Anthony Lomando
Assistant Strength & Conditioning	Cedric Smith	Cedric Smith
Assistant to the Head Coach	Rob Grosso	Mike Hiestand

2019 ushered in a new era for the Denver Broncos: The Don of Fangio. After exiling Vance Joseph to the desert, the Broncos brought in the longtime defensive coordinator for his first ever shot as Head Coach. The season got off to a rough start as the Broncos fell to 0-4 before limping into the bye week at 3-6. Injuries took their toll on the Broncos early and often, but with Fangio's guidance and some late season lineup changes, the Broncos finished the year 7-9. After ending the season on a high note, Fangio is back for his second year in Denver.
Gone is Rich Scangarello, whose experience as the QB Coach in San Francisco had fans excited about the potential of the Broncos offense. As the season wore on, Scangarello's offense failed to live up to the hype. Whether it was ineffective quarterback play, poor game scripts, or too many weird sweeps to the tight end, the Broncos finished last in several key offensive categories (28th in Yards Per Game, 28th in Scoring, and 26th in Yards Per Attempt.) Scangarello was fired at the season's end and replaced with Pat Shurmur. Shurmur's stint as the Head Coach of the New York Giants was a wash, as the club won nine games in his two years. However, Shurmur's aggressive, down-the-field offense seems a better fit for sophomore quarterback Drew Lock. Shurmur bringing in his guy Mike Shula as the Quarterback Coach should help him learn the offense and take the next step in his NFL progression.
On defense, Ed Donatell returns to helm a unit that finished 10th in Scoring and 12th in Yards Allowed. One notable hire in this coaching group is John Pagano, who is here to boost the pass rush on a defense that finished with 40 sacks, nearly the league average. ST Coordinator Tom McMahon is still around, despite another middling year from special teams. Maybe new punter Sam Martin will help with that.

Free Agency: Arrivals...

Player	Position	Contract
Shelby Harris	DE	1 year, $3.25 million
Jurrell Casey	DE	2020 7th round pick (to TEN)
AJ Bouye	CB	2020 4th round pick (from SF trade)
Melvin Gordon	RB	2 years, $16 million
Graham Glasgow	OG	4 years, $44 million
Nick Vannett	TE	2 years, $5.7 million
Jeremiah Attachou	OLB	1 year, $1.5 million
Jeff Driskel	QB	2 years, $5 million
Jacob Bobenmeyer	LS	2 years, $2.3 million
Sam Martin	P	3 years, $5.7 million

Shelby Harris wound up re-signing with Denver after having less interest on the market than anticipated. The talented defensive end comes back on a cheap "prove it" deal to play opposite Jurrell Casey. The longtime anchor for the Titans defensive line was sent to Denver for a measly seventh-round pick in a move that freed up a good chunk of cap space for Tennessee. The Broncos got another steal via trade in cornerback AJ Bouye. After an up-and-down career in Jacksonville, the 28 year old corner hopes to have something of a comeback season in Fangio's zone coverage scheme opposite Bryce Callahan. Former Chargers RB Melvin Gordon is here now, too, replacing Devontae Booker (and maybe Royce Freeman. Who knows.) When healthy, Gordon is a terror on the football field and should give the Broncos the pass-catching ability and goal line punch that Freeman and Lindsay couldn't quite find last year. Do I love that he has the 8th highest guaranteed RB salary this season? No. Will I ever forgive him for wrecking shop against Nebraska in 2014? Also no. Former Lions guard and noted BIG BOY Graham Glasgow is the latest free agent to play on Denver's offensive line. Glasgow has missed one start in the last three years and should bring some much needed stability to the offensive line. Nick Vannett is here now, for some reason. The Broncos have a thing for Big Ten tight ends and I truly can't wrap my head around it. Jeremiah Attachou is back as a depth piece behind Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Jeff Driskel follows our aforementioned BIG BOY over from Detroit to back up Drew Lock. Jacob Bobenmeyer replaces longtime long snapper Casey Kreiter. I don't know much about him, but he's a long snapper, and that's enough for me. Punter Sam Martin signed with Denver after eight years in Detroit, hoping to break the punter curse that has plagued the Broncos since the departure of Britton Colquitt several years ago.

...and Departures

Player	Position	Team
Will Parks	Safety	1 year, $1.6 million (PHI)
Connor McGovern	C	3 years, $27 million (NYJ)
Chris Harris Jr.	CB	2 years, $20 million (LAC)
Derek Wolfe	DE	1 year, $3 million (BAL)
Andy Janovich	FB	Traded to CLE for 2021 7th Round Pick

Will Parks got a chance to play for his hometown team this offseason. After seeing the contract details, many were confused as to why Denver let Philly Will walk, but the versatile safety was fighting for playing time behind Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson. Connor McGovern got a decent payday from the Jets and will be a welcome addition on a line that has struggled to defend Sam Darnold (and Trevor Siemian. And Luke Falk.) The writing was on the wall for shutdown corner Chris Harris Jr. after Denver cashed in on the firesale in Jacksonville and scooped up AJ Bouye. Harris eventually signed a contract with the Chargers, who are not even the best soccer team in LA. Derek Wolfe was in a similar situation when the team landed Jurrell Casey in a trade with the Titans. Wolfe now joins Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams in the Ravens new and improved defensive front. Andy Janovich... I can't even talk about this, man. ^{WHY WOULD GOD LET THIS HAPPEN}

2020 Draft Class

Pick	Player	Position	School
1.15	Jerry Jeudy	WR	Alabama
2.46	KJ Hamler	WR	Penn State
3.77	Michael Ojemudia	CB	Iowa
3.83	Lloyd Cushenberry	C	LSU
3.95	McTelvin Agim	DT	Arkansas
4.118	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	Mizzou
5.178	Justin Strnad	LB	Wake Forest
6.181	Netane Muti	OG	Fresno State
7.252	Tyrie Cleveland	WR	Florida
7.254	Derrek Tuszka	DE	NDSU

It wasn't exactly a secret that Denver was looking to add a receiver in this year's draft. After months of reports that Denver was high on speedster Henry Ruggs III and rumors of a trade up into the top ten picks, Denver stood pat at the fifteenth pick and ended up with the best WR prospect in the class. Jerry Jeudy is a master route runner with excellent YAC ability, and will give the Broncos offense a true #2 behind last year's breakout star Courtland Sutton. Denver had the choice between Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb at Pick 15, and really couldn't have gone wrong with either. Jeudy was considered by many to be the most pro-ready receiver in the draft, and he now has the opportunity to prove that statement correct in Denver.
The Kansas City Chiefs have put the league on notice: speed and field-stretching ability are a must in the new NFL. Enter KJ Hamler, who the Broncos picked in the second round of the NFL Draft. Hamler was a star for the Nittany Lions, racking up 906 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last season. He had 12 drops in 2019, which is some cause for concern, but he's got speed for days and can take the top off a defense without breaking a sweat. Between Hamler and Jeudy, the Broncos brass showed their faith in sophomore QB Drew Lock, who now has two talented rookies to sling the ball to.
Despite having inferior corn, Iowa has conistently managed to pump out NFL-worthy talent. Cornerback Michael Ojemudia is no different. Ojemudia has excellent size (6'0", 199 lbs) and was a crucial part of the Hawkeyes zone defense. Ojemudia is also a solid tackler, which is a non-negotiable if you're hoping to start in a Fangio defense. I wasn't sold on Ojemudia at first (I was pulling for Mississippi State corner Cameron Dantzler at this point in the draft), but his tackling ability and success in a scheme similar to what Fangio likes has made me a hopeful that the former Hawkeye can have some success in a secondary that was begging for talent last season.
Everyone gets hung up on Jeudy (and for good reason!) but my favorite pick in this year's draft was Lloyd Cushenberry in the third round. Cush was a star for LSU en route to their Natty win this past year. He's a better run blocker than anything else, but he kept Heisman winner and honorary Cajun Joe Burrow clean all season, and should be able to do the same for Drew Lock in 2020. Cush will likely end up starting Day 1 at Center for the Broncos, filling the void left by new Jets center Connor McGovern.
McTelvin Agim was a pick that had me scratching my head, but I've since come around on it. The defensive tackle was a rare bright spot on the Razorbacks defense. Agim has killer burst off the snap and good agility for someone who clocks in at 307 lbs. This pick was made with an eye on the future -- Shelby Harris might be leaving after this season, after all -- but Agim has both the chance and the skill to make some noise up front for the Broncos defense.
A quality defense and an affinity for Italian beef (citation needed) wasn't all Vic Fangio brought over from Chicago. Denver grabbed Albert Okwuegbunam in this year's draft, adding yet another tight end to an already crowded room. Albert O. is more of a receiver than a blocker, which is honestly fine. He's got great hands and is big enough to catch balls beyond the reach of the defender. He joins a tight end group that consists of Noah Fant, Jeff Heuerman, Nick Vannett, piles of bone meal, and whatever is left of Jake Butt.
For years, it feels like Denver has struggled to find even a solid inside linebacker. Fifth round pick Justin Strnad is the latest player to attempt to fill the void left by the departures of Danny Trevathan in 2016 and Brandon Marshall in 2018. It’s no secret that John Elway doesn’t like spending big money or draft capital on inside linebackers, hence the Day Three selection of Strnad, but that’s not necessarily indicative of his talent. Strnad is rangy tackler who showed excellent athleticism during his time at Wake Forest. Denver’s ILB cupboard is pretty spare: Alexander Johnson had a bit of a breakout year for the Broncos last season, but behind him is run-stuffer Todd Davis and Josey Jewell, who will likely be fighting for a roster spot this season. Strnad should bring some much needed athleticism to a unit that desperately needs it.
Every year, there are a handful of rookies who fall two or three rounds due to injury concerns. Fresno State guard Netane Muti is no different. The former Bulldog missed most of his 2019 season with a Lisfranc injury after missing much of the previous year with a ruptured Achilles. When healthy, however, Muti is an aggressive and athletic blocker in the run game and has the power to punch defenders off the line of scrimmage in pass protection. Denver’s offensive line is set, but Muti gives the team a talented depth piece with starting upside if he can stay healthy.
After selecting Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler in the first two rounds, Denver sprang for another wideout late in the draft. Tyrie Cleveland played in 46 games at Florida, starting 26 of them. Cleveland has good hands and an excellent catch radius, but his lackluster route running and struggles to get separation showed on the stat sheet. He’s a developmental receiver that will push depth players like Fred Brown and Juwann Winfree for a roster spot.
As is tradition, the Broncos spent a draft pick on a pass rusher, namely defensive end Derrek Tuszka. As a senior in 2019, Tuszka racked up 48 tackles and 13.5 sacks for the Bison. Tuszka finished his career in the lesser Dakota with 133 tackles and 29.5 sacks. Some will likely consider the talent of NDSU’s opponents a knock against Tuszka, but he’s a talented end who will be a good developmental player for the Broncos.

2020 Season Predictions

Week 1: vs. TEN (W)
The Broncos get a tough matchup to open the season when the Titans come to town for a late Monday night game. Tennessee is coming off a season that ended in a loss in the AFC Championship. The Titans return most of their starters from last season on both sides of the ball, with Derrick Henry and a newly extended Ryan Tannehill leading the offense. The two teams met last season in a game that Denver won 16-0, just before Tennessee ripped off a series of wins that earned them a 9-7 record and a playoff spot. Broncos newcomer Jurrell Casey will be eager to show his previous team what they’re missing, helping propel Denver to a close home win in their first game. Broncos 24, Titans 23
Week 2: @ PIT (L)
Denver’s first road test is likely the toughest one on their schedule aside from @KC. The Steelers finished 8-8 last season with their defense doing its best to overcome the early season loss of Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben should be back this season, with newcomers Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool giving the offense some more firepower. The Broncos should be greatly improved on offense this year, but an early road game against a top five defense in 2019 is likely too much for Denver to overcome. Steelers 27, Broncos 17
Week 3: vs. TB (W)
Open your heart to the snake oil peddler, Tampa Bay. Tom Brady joined the team during free agency, with wrestling star and cruise ship aficionado Rob Gronkowski following close behind. Brady’s pursuit of a seventh (!!!) Super Bowl win brought him to Florida, where he’ll be spearheading an offense that includes talented wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Denver is the only team Brady has a losing record against – he is 8-9 overall and 4-7 when playing in Denver. Look for that trend to continue this season when the Buccs come to town. Despite the best efforts of Brady’s offense and a defense led by former Bronco and 2019 sack leader Shaquill Barrett, Denver gets another win at home over the future Hall of Famer. Broncos 27, Buccaneers 24
Week 4: @ NYJ (W)
The Jets are one of three AFC East teams who finally saw their long nightmare come to an end when Tom Brady left for the greener pastures of Tampa Bay. Sam Darnold is still a young and talented QB. Former Broncos C Connor McGovern and rookie OT Mekhi Becton were brought in to give the Jets QB some much needed protection, and rookie WR Denzel Mims is aboard to help stretch the field. However, the team is still coached by Adam Gase, and thus will continue to fall short of their potential ceiling. This matchup has all the makings of a classic Broncos trap game, but Denver should be able to get a comfortable win on the road. Broncos 23, Jets 13
Week 5: @ NE (L)
As mentioned above, the Patriots will be beginning a season without Tom Brady for the first time in nearly two decades. Enter sophomore QB Jarrett Stidham and recent signing Cam Newton. The Pats are reportedly big fans of Stidham, but when a talent like Newton comes around, he’s not going to ride the bench if he’s healthy. New England’s defense finished the 2019 season as the best in the league and retained most of its starters. If you can believe it, the weapons at Newton’s disposal are probably better than those he had during the run up to Super Bowl 50. On paper, one would hope that Denver could squeeze out their fourth win of the year. However, a second consecutive road game against Bill Belichick and the vaunted Patriots defense is too much for this young team to handle this early in the season. Newton gets a modicum of revenge against Denver after becoming Von Miller’s son in early 2016. Patriots 24, Broncos 16
Week 6: vs. MIA (W)
After two trips to the east coast, the Broncos return to the Mile High City to try and get back in the win column. Despite being one of the worst teams to take the field in 2019, the Dolphins head into 2020 with a completely rebuilt roster. Free agents Jordan Howard and Matt Breida have come to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick from being the team’s leading rusher for a second year, while Shaq Lawson and Byron Jones have come to South Beach to shore up the league’s worst defense. Rookie tackle Austin Jackson will be battling for a starting spot, but will he be protecting Fitzmagic or rookie phenom Tua Tagovailoa? The Dolphins figure to be a better team in 2020, but a road game in Denver isn’t quite winnable for this team yet. Denver moves to 4-2 in a game that isn’t as close as the score would have you think. Broncos 30, Miami 17
Week 7: vs. KC (L)
Denver went into the draft looking to match Kansas City’s speed on offense; a wise decision, considering that speed won the team its first Super Bowl since the moon landings. Patrick Mahomes is now the highest paid athlete of all time, having recently signed a deal that will keep him in the AFC West’s collective nightmares for another twelve years. The Chiefs were quiet in the offseason but woke up one morning and bought themselves a gun in rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. This Broncos team is better than the one that lost both matchups with KC by a total score of 53-9, but a game against the reigning champs isn’t quite winnable for Denver yet. This one gets away from Denver early. Chiefs 31, Broncos 23
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: @ ATL (W)
A midseason Bye is a plus for any team, especially one coming off a loss to a division rival. The timing couldn’t be better for Denver, who travels to Atlanta in Week 9 to take on the high-powered Falcons offense. Atlanta swapped Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper for Todd Gurley and Hayden Hurst in the offseason and added former Ram Dante Fowler Jr. to bolster their pass rush. I can’t really get a bead on this Falcons team, they could win twelve games or five, and neither would be terribly surprising to me. Denver comes out of the Bye strong and lets the defense do its job in a tight victory. Broncos 27, Falcons 24
Week 10: @ LVR (L)
Introducing your Las Vegas Raiders, who will certainly be just as good as the Las Vegas Golden Knights in their first season. In fairness, the Raiders didn’t have a terrible offseason. They addressed their longtime problem at linebacker by picking up Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkowski in free agency. Maliek Collins and Prince Amukamara join Richie Incognito in Jon Gruden’s attempt to build Huskers West. Rookies Henry Ruggs III and Lynn Bowden Jr. hope to give the offense some juice. (Is Bowden the best QB on the team? Perhaps!) Jason Witten is here, for some reason. Unfortunately, Denver gets caught sleeping in this one, as Oakland Las Vegas puts it all on black for a home win. Raiders 24, Broncos 20
Week 11: vs. LAC (W)
Sorry, Chargers, you’re on the receiving end of this home win. LA enters the 2020 season with a shiny new quarterback in Justin Herbert, former Broncos CB and fan favorite Chris Harris Jr, and rookie ILB/the entire Oklahoma defense Kenneth Murray. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tyrod Taylor starts the year for the Chargers, but barring any surprises, I expect Herbert to be trying to charm defenses into submission by Week 11. Despite having the most hype uniforms in the league, the Chargers lose a road game as a Melvin Gordon TD run seals the deal. Broncos 34, Chargers 17
Week 12: vs. NO (L)
The Saints come marching in for the Denver’s toughest home game yet. Hall of Fame QB and pyramid scheme enthusiast Drew Brees has maybe one or two years left to win another ring, and this Saints team is in a good position to help him do just that. Rookie OL Cesar Ruiz gives the Saints an impenetrable offensive line, perfect for giving Brees enough time to find Michael Thomas or former Bronco Emmanuel Sanders down the field. Alvin Kamara is healthy again, which should scare everybody who is not a Saints fan. Denver’s hot and cold streak continues as the Saints take this one. Saints 28, Broncos 24
Week 13: @ KC (L)
Sorry, Denver fans, but until the Broncos actually beat the Chiefs, I’m penciling every game in as a loss. Especially during a road game late in the year. With any luck, Denver won’t be playing this one in a blizzard. Denver keeps this game closer than their previous matchup, but that’s not enough of a bonus to take the win this week. Chiefs 31, Broncos 27
Week 14: @ CAR (W)
NORTH CAROLINA, COME ON AND RAISE UP. Denver travels to the newly statueless Bank of America Stadium to take on a Panthers team that looks poised to chase the first overall pick. Teddy Two Gloves defected from the bayou to start for the Panthers, replacing new Patriots QB Cam Newton. Christian McCaffrey is coming off a year where he played his way into a massive payday. Rookies Derrick Brown and Jeremy Chinn hope to give a boost to a defense that was only better than Miami’s in 2019. Denver gets back in the win column as Carolina continues its quest for Trevor Lawrence. Broncos 34, Panthers 16
Week 15: vs. BUF (W)
Denver returns home to take on a staunch Buffalo team that was a few weird plays from an overtime victory against the Texans in the playoffs last season. The Bills added Stefon Diggs to their receiving corps and snagged rookie AJ Epenesa to add to an already terrifying defensive front. Quarterback Josh Allen, who played his college ball just up the road in Laramie, should be able to throw the ball roughly two miles in the thin mountain air, but this game ends up being a low-scoring affair that is decided by the defense. Buffalo Bills, telephone bills, automo-bills, doesn’t matter. Denver’s defense grinds out a win at a chilly Mile High. Broncos 19, Bills 13
Week 16: @ LAC (W)
After a tough and wintry outing against Buffalo, the Broncos get a bit of a vacation to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers once again. The outcome is the same, but even the Chargers can have a little home field advantage, as a treat. Denver gets a win and is on a hot streak heading into the last week of the season. Broncos 27, Chargers 23
Week 17: vs. LVR (W)
After a bad weekend in Vegas earlier in the season, the Broncos host the Raiders in the regular season finale. Denver is rolling and the team’s first playoff berth since 2015 is on the line. Denver gets a commanding lead early and never really looks back. Oakland mounts a late rally, but a long Phillip Lindsay run keeps Denver ahead and runs out the clock on a winning season. Broncos 31, Raiders 24
It’s a tough schedule, but Denver’s hardest games are at home this season. They aren’t unseating Kansas City anytime soon for the division crown, but I’ve got the Broncos finishing 10-6 with a shot at the playoffs.

Shurmur’s New Offense

Pat Shurmur became the latest coach to join the Broncos earlier this year. After several years of rotating offensive coordinators (Rich Scangarello in 2019, Bill Musgrave in 2018, and a combination of Musgrave and Mike McCoy in 2017), Denver decided to take a chance on Shurmur. As mentioned earlier, Shurmur’s two years as the head coach of the Giants was less than inspiring. Denver didn’t hire him for his head coaching abilities, though. Rather, they brought Shurmur in based on his ability to squeeze good-to-great seasons out of his quarterbacks as an offensive coordinator (see Nick Foles in 2013 and Case Keenum in 2017.)
Shurmur’s offense could not be more different from the scheme that Denver ran last year. I’m not sure what Scangarello’s offense would have looked like in its second year; Shurmur doesn’t get as cute with his skill positions pre-snap, but he will motion receivers inside on play-action and for run blocking. This offense is also much more vertical and aggressive than the scheme we saw Denver roll out in 2019. The Broncos ran a lot of plays out of 12 and 22 personnel last season, a holdover from Scangarello’s experience in San Francisco. Shurmur, on the other hand, uses a lot of spread concepts to stretch the defense. Lock should have plenty of options downfield as Shurmur's scheme opens up the back of the defense.
Shurmur’s offense does not rely heavily on the use of fullbacks. (We miss you, Andy.) However, Shurmur still likes to run plenty, generally out of a zone scheme that got even Latavius Murray 842 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2017. Despite the impending shift to a more modern spread offense, the Broncos should still be running the ball plenty with their three solid RBs.

Projected Roster

QB: Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel
RB: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Royce Freeman, LeVante Bellamy
WR: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, DaeShon Hamilton, Tim Patrick, Diontae Spencer
TE: Noah Fant, Jeff Heuerman, Albert Okwuegbunam, Nick Vannett
OT: Garett Bolles, Ju’Wuan James, Elijah Wilkinson
OG: Dalton Risner, Graham Glasgow, Netane Muti
C: Lloyd Cushenberry, Patrick Morris
DT: Mike Purcell, McTelvin Agim, Christian Covington
DE: Shelby Harris, Jurrell Casey, Dre’Mont Jones, DeMarcus Walker
OLB: Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Malik Reed, Jeremiah Attachou, Justin Hollins
ILB: Alexander Johnson, Todd Davis, Justin Strnad, Josey Jewell
CB: AJ Bouye, Bryce Callahan, Michael Ojemudia, De’Vante Bausby, Duke Dawson, Davontae Harris
SS: Kareem Jackson, Trey Marshall
FS: Justin Simmons, Douglas Coleman
K: Brandon McManus
P: Sam Martin
LS: Jacob Bobenmeyer
Practice Squad: Brett Rypien (QB), Shakial Taylor (CB), Josh Watson (LB), Malik Carney (LB), Derek Tuszka (DE), Tyrie Cleveland (WR), Zimari Manning (WR), Douglas Coleman (SS), Essang Bassey (CB), Hunter Watts (OT)

Players To Watch:

1. Drew Lock, QB This feels like cheating, but that doesn't make it any less true. It took a while to get him into the starting lineup, but Drew Lock showed enough in his five starts to earn a vote of confidence from both Elway and the coaching staff. Granted, the bar wasn't set terribly high by either Joe Flacco or Brandon Allen, but the team brass spent the offseason building an offense around the second-year signal caller. Rookies Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler give a massive boost to the passing game, while Melvin Gordon provides a powerful threat in the running game. For the first time in several seasons, the Broncos offense looks like a strength rather than a liability. All Lock needs to do is deliver.
   
2. Garett Bolles, OT This is truly a make-or-break year for Bolles. The team declined to pick up his fifth year option this past spring, and the 2021 draft class has some quality tackles that could come in and replace Bolles on day one. The hope is that another year under the tutelage of OL mastermind Mike Munchak can help break Bolles of some of his old habits, not to mention having a quarterback who can move around in the pocket and avoid pressure (Bolles allowed pressure once every 46.8 pass rush snaps through the last five weeks of the season.) The one good thing anyone can say about Bolles is that he has remained healthy during his three years in Denver, but if he can't clean up his technique, don't be surprised to see Samuel Cosmi or Alex Leatherwood starting in his place next year.
   
3. Shelby Harris, DE Harris re-signed with the Broncos last spring after his market dried up -- rumor had it that he was headed to Indianapolis before the Colts made a late trade for DeForest Buckner. Harris was incredibly productive for the Broncos the last couple of seasons, especially after moving back to his more natural position of defensive end in Fangio's scheme last season. Look for Harris to have a massive chip on his shoulder as he builds on a 2019 campaign where he totaled 6 sacks, 49 tackles, and 9(!!!) passes defensed.
   
4. Bryce Callahan, CB No, really, can someone keep an eye out for him? I haven't seen him anywhere.
   

Link to THE HUB (Not that one.)