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It feels like it's been 5 years since we've seen actual NBA basketball, which may make awards debates and campaigns more difficult. Wait, who was playing well again...? Dennis Schroder? Seriously? Huh. Okay then.
As we soldier back into the bubble, there's a risk that awards voters will forget about that early part of the season (aka the vast majority) and fall victim to recency bias. Given that, we wanted to glance through the major races and determine which -- if any -- awards may still be in debate.
For this exercise, I'm using the current odds as listed by an online betting site (bovada). Note: the percentages do NOT add up to 100% because online betting sites like your money.
MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo: - 3500 (97%)
LeBron James: +600 (14%)
is the race over?
This betting site heavily favors Giannis Antetokounmpo, although some other metrics have it closer than that. Basketball-reference's MVP tracker lists Giannis at 50.7% and LeBron at 17.3%.
I'm more inclined to believe the latter and that LeBron James would be closer to 15-20% odds. No doubt, Giannis is a worthy MVP. He's been a dominant force (again) for the top statistical team in the league (again.) He's racking up 30-14-6 in only 30.9 minutes per game. In most circumstances, he'd win this award in a walk.
That said, you can never discount "narrative," and LeBron James has a few of those going for him. The Lakers have vaulted up to the # 1 seed in the West, outperforming preseason expectations. James has played exceptionally well, and even led the league in assists. Partly because of that, James' camp has successfully gotten the media to buy into the storyline that he made a sudden transition to point guard (ya know, because he had always deferred to his point guards like Mo Williams and Mario Chalmers in the past...)
More than that, James may benefit from this strange corona-bubble. He's been a leading advocate for continuing on, and as always, players tend to follow his lead. I can see more than a few media members giving James an MVP vote for "saving the season." All in all, I expect this vote to be closer than it should be (and I expect poor James Harden to finish well behind where he should as well.)
So James will get some votes, but can he actually win the award? I wouldn't rule it out. The Lakers are currently 3 games behind the Bucks for the # 1 overall seed. It's hard to imagine Milwaukee losing enough to slip, but it's not Wallace Shawn inconceivable either. If the Lakers somehow manage to catch them, then I actually think LeBron will win MVP. Of course, it's more likely the Bucks will hang onto the # 1 seed, and Giannis will hang onto MVP. But again, I don't think it's a stone cold lock -- yet.
Rookie of the Year
Ja Morant: - 3500 (97%)
Zion Williamson: +850 (11%)
is the race over?
It should be. Zion Williamson is freakin' amazing, but he's played 19 games so far. That's 40 less than Ja Morant, who has played stellar ball for a rookie from a small school, and somehow led the Memphis Grizzlies to the 8th seed.
Still, we can't rule out the risk of recency bias and a wild overreaction from the media. Williamson has a chance to lead the Pelicans up to the 9th spot, at which point they'd play Morant's Grizzlies. If Williamson can lead New Orleans to two victories over Memphis in a row -- and thus leapfrog them in the standings -- then it's very feasible the media would throw their vote his way. The media (and the league as a whole) tends to like this Zion fella, if you haven't noticed.
Sixth Man
Dennis Schroder: - 220 (69%)
Montrezl Harrell: +190 (34%)
Lou Williams: +450 (18%)
Derrick Rose: +3000 (3%)
is the race over?
Simply put: no. It's still a three-man race in my book. The Clippers' Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell finished 1-2 last season, and are right back in the thick of things this year. Among the two, it's harder to justify Williams' winning for the third season in a row. He hasn't played as well as last year, and hasn't been as big of a focal point for the Clippers' game plan.
With Sweet Lou taking a slight step back, it's opened the door for Dennis Schroder. He's having a career season in terms of efficiency. In fact, it's hard to understate his jump this year. In his six previous seasons, his career high true shooting percentage was only 53.3%. This season? He's vaulted up to 57.3%. The question is: have enough voters noticed? OKC has been a feel-good story this year, but Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tend to get the most credit for that.
Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if voters get lazy and just fall back on the highest scorer among the three. And even by those standards, the race is wide open. Schroder is at 19.0 PPG, Williams is at 18.7 PPG, and Harrell is at 18.6 PPG. A strong (or bad) week or two in the bubble may tilt this race in any direction.
Defensive Player of the Year
Giannis Antetokounmpo: -500 (83%)
Anthony Davis: +200 (33%)
Rudy Gobert: +2800 (3%)
is the race over?
Even among savvy and analytically-inclined media members, "defense" is still something of a mystery to quantify. We see a lot of herd mentality emerge for DPOY voting, with candidates needing to stake their claim early on and campaign all season long.
In terms of storylines and narratives, it felt like Anthony Davis had the early momentum. He's a wrecking ball (1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks) who helped improve the Lakers' defense from # 12 to # 3 this season. Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo has steadily built his case for a double MVP + DPOY, and currently ranks as the betting favorite on this site.
Personally, I believe it's a closer race than these numbers suggest. At the same time, I'm not sure what their play in the bubble is going to do about it. More likely, it'll be an influential media piece (like Zach Lowe pushing for Marc Gasol) that may get voters ushering on one side or another.
Most Improved
Bam Adebayo: -150 (60%)
Brandon Ingram: +250 (29%)
Luka Doncic: +500 (17%)
Jayson Tatum: +900 (10%)
Devonte Graham: +1000 (9%)
is the race over?
Again, this race feels "too close to call" to me. John King and David Chalian may be tallying up the counties all night long.
Earlier this season, I looked back at previous Most Improved winners and tried to find some common threads. On average, the winner improved from 11.7 PPG to 19.6 PPG (roughly +8 points.)
Historically speaking, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum fit close to those templates. Ingram has swelled from 18.3 PPG to 24.3 PPG in his first season in New Orleans (+6). Tatum has made an even bigger leap, going from 15.7 PPG to 23.6 PPG (essentially our exact +8). Of the two, I may lean more to Ingram myself. Tatum's taking more shots and more threes, but he was already considered a proven star prior to this. Ingram had been more of a question mark before, but has now established himself as a potential max player. The key for him has been an improved FT%. In his first three seasons, he shot 62%, 68%, and 68% from the line. This year, he's up to 86%. That's major progress, and represents a massive difference in his efficiency "floor." Still, you wonder if Ingram's momentum peaked too early. Ever since Zion Williamson came back, it feels like Ingram has been an afterthought in the media.
Conversely, Bam Adebayo's reputation within the media is still surging. He's been a major reason for the Miami Heat's success this year, nearly doubling from 8.9 PPG to 16.2 PPG (+7.3 overall.) He's also doubled his assists (from 2.2 to 5.1). If you wanted to nitpick Adebayo's candidacy, you may suggest he was pretty darn good already. A lot of the statistical upswing comes from an increase in minutes, from 23.3 to 34.4 this year.
Overall, I'd say Abebayo is the favorite, but I wouldn't lock it in yet. A player like Brandon Ingram could get hot and have a few 40 point games, at which point the momentum may swing back in his favor.

My friends and I would love to get some feedback from fellow bettors on our latest personal project: a bet tracker app that doesn't suck, doesn't limit you, and is free.
We started working on this when we realized we didn't really enjoy using the existing solutions for tracking our bets. Spreadsheets were too tedious to use on our phones and the best apps had too many important features locked behind a paywall. So we decided to build our own!
We're planning on calling it Sharp. You can check out our designs while we finish coding it out.
https://imgur.com/gallery/tJtRpye
Our core features are:
- Free forever (we plan to make money through donations / sponsorships)
- Desktop / smartphone friendly (website first, iOS and Android coming after)
- Automatically updates game odds / results
- Supports most leagues (american football, soccer, baseball, tennis, etc)
- Supports all bet types (including parlays, teasers, props)
- Integrated with data from over 30 sportsbooks (5dimes, Heritage, Nitrogen Sports, Bet365, Bovada, etc)
- CSV import
- Easy-to-understand charts and trend graphs

Thanks for reading, and let us know how we can make it better!

We put a quick landing page up at https://trackyourbets.lpages.co/autotracke if you want to stay updated on when it'll be released.

I play micro and low mtts and occasionally cash and plo. I use Windows 10 and I play on all the American facing sites, particularly BetOnline, Bovada, ACR and Global. I'm aware that I need a card catcher to record and import my BetOnline histories and I plan on getting this.
In terms of MTT analysis anyone have a strong opinion on which tracker should I get? I've tried looking up the question and the opinions seem to lead me toward PokerTracker so i'm wondering if anyone has used both and knew of which had the most useful capabilities for MTT tournament and hand analysis. Thanks for any help.

So this is the year I beat this game. Last year small loser - don't have my poker tracker hooked up to gauge stats (so that should be a goal for 2019)- so don't know exact details.
Info on me - 55 year old (MAWG) so have some nitty tendencies - been playing online since 2006. Was a small winner in Full Tilt/Stars games (includes rakeback) up until Black Friday. Took a year or 2 off and found Bovada/Ignition maybe in 2014 and thru present, I'm a break even player.
I play in another Stars home league that I crush (I know the players and they are very very bad) so I'm able to fund the Ignition habit through that.
Random stuff:
1- what videos/books would be best to get advice on beating this particular game (Hudless, anonymous, fast fold poker)
2- Give me 5 hands you would flat a 3 bet OOP with. Currently I am super nitty and tend to fold AJ and AQo in those spots. Sometimes I call with 77-QQ. Sometimes flatting with AK (sometimes 4 betting/getting it in). Occasionally flat with 78s, 97s, 65s for balance. Folding a ton (as I think I should be).
3- Blind defense - I am by and large defending as her Mathew Juanda's Application of NLHE charts. My gut says this is too loose in these games because in theory people should be folding marginal hands even in position therefore I would need an even stronger range here. For example, if button opens to 3x, I usually call with Q8s, K7s type hands.
4- 3 betting light from the blinds - Not withstanding my comment in #3 that people should be opening with stronger hands, there is almost always a raise by the cutoff or button if unopened. I have a default to 3 bet A2-A5s, A10s-Aks. Is this profitable, should I ever flat some of these hands. I tend to mix up between calling and raising 66-JJ as I feel like these hands are too strong to get blown off by a 4 bet.
5- Give me 5 hands you would always defend with in position (lets say cutoff or button vs. one of the blinds). Again I struggle with should I flat with hands like AJ, AQ and KQo. I prefer to flat with 97s, 65s, as I feel that AK and AQ are common holdings that a blind is going to be 3 betting (although I have some card removal in my favor).
6- Help in 3 bet pots. I tend to get lost sometimes in 3 bet pots especially with whiffed hands like AX, sometimes barrelling off stupidly when it became obvious that villain ain't folding.
7 - I tend to cbet entire range with exception of when board texture favors a caller's range. Example, I open with KJs in EP and button flats. I tend to check fold on 6-7-9 type flops.
8- What else? Would love to hear from players beating this game on some strategy and advice that propelled them.
Peace and Happy New Year!

I've been playing on ACR for a while now (3ish years) and I've never been super keen on their platform, but their most recent update has been an absolute disaster (I'll spare the details; Joe Ingram has done a good job covering it if you're curious). I'm trying to figure out where to move, but for U.S. players, the options are obviously limited. A couple things to note:
- I live in NY, so sites that only work in NJ are not possible (e.g. 888)
- I would like to use my current HUD tracker (Poker Copilot), and from what I understand, Ignition doesn't even allow you to see usernames (I haven't tried it personally, a friend of mine tells me this is the case. Additionally, Poker Copilot doesn't seem to support Ignition; it does support other Bovada sites though, so it might)

I'm essentially looking for advice as to where to try playing. Other than ACR and BetOnline (definitely not trying that again), I seem to be out of good options. Any suggestions are welcome. Cheers.

Preface: this will likely come across as a "bitching about downswing" post.
So, I've managed to slowly grind my way from $50 to ~$250 playing mostly 5nl zone on bovada. Recently (within past week), there seems to have been an influx of super agro, retard donks flooding the tables. So thats great and all, but I can't seem to win a damn hand against them.
I normally play REALLY ABC poker, frankly, I'm a huge NIT. I'm positionally aware, I have grasp on pot odds and all the basics, But for the life of me I cannot put these people on a range of hands! I can't understand someone calling 3 bets with 64o or 75s, but both those hands cracked KK and AA respectively, and that was just today's session. I feel like I'm on a soul crushing downswing.
At my best, the BR was at 308, and I've just been absolutely slammed this past week. It has really made me question my play, but I don't know how to adjust properly to make myself profitable again. I can't count the number of times I've gotten it in 80/20 or better, and just get miserably owned.
Have you all noticed a difference? What adjustments have you made? Do you just become a calling station? It seems like that may be the ticket, but I would think your variance would shoot through the roof trying to play that way.
I don't have a tracker or anything, but I usually play around 10hrs a week, so my progress until now has been really slow and steady. Its crushing my thought process trying to comprehend a 12BI swing at this point. Until then my biggest swing was 6BI, which was tough but I managed to persevere. This one is really making me look at my game, and evaluate if I need to change.
I'm trying to stay positive and keep thinking all I can do is get my money in good and let the cards hit the table, but I swear I've seen more 2-3 outers hit on me than statistically possible in such a short time frame.
/Vent

Since about a month ago, I've just fallen in love with poker and have played on Bovada micros (5NL) ever since. Now, the sidebar FAQ is a great resource for recommendations on learning tools, but it seems that the trouble I'm coming across as a newbie is that I don't exactly know what I need to improve on, or how to improve my game overall.
I only have 5,000 recorded hands on PokerTracker (down 5BB at the moment) and I have a long way to go in terms of skill development. I'd like to think that most of my blunders were because I messed up and not because of bad beats.
But right now, I feel like there's so many resources out there and I don't exactly know what the best ones are for me. I suppose it varies from person-to-person, but it's like I'm suffering through analysis paralysis because I feel like I can't find anything that's personally going to provide me with efficient growth as a player.
I've skimmed through things like Harrington on Cash Games and the Theory of Poker, but I feel like they're a little to advanced for me to really take in a lot of the information. I can pick up on most of the key concepts, but they seem to mostly be things I have already learned beforehand. I've tried going through videos on DeucesCracked and CardRunners, but there's just HUNDREDS of videos that I once again, feel overwhelmed and don't exactly know which videos will personally help me.
I'd like to think I'm someone who tries to find the significance behind the smallest things (e.g. what is he trying to say when he's checking in this position? what about his actions suggest that I may have the best hand here? why is betting on this particular flop with these particular players the best move?)
I feel like a lot of what I've looked at already almost always go through the same ideas (e.g. cbet on most occasions as preflop raiser, TAG-TAG-TAG-TAG, rarely limp into pots, etc.) and I feel like after that, I haven't come across anything else that has really helped me improve my game exponentially.
I guess I've com asking for recommendations on study aids that can help me, but I think I'm even more frustrated with just the sheer number of tools available and the struggle to find the ones that will help me. It's frustrating trying to read through a book or go through a video for hours and feeling like you either didn't gain much from it or that it's far too advanced to properly absorb the information.

I'm getting back into poker after taking a year long break (family and career consumed me over the past year). I'm primarily a live poker player but I have played roughly to 100,000 hands online in my past.
Online, I'm currently playing on Bovada (US) in Zone Poker cash games only and am looking for someone to talk shop and discuss strategy and study Zone Poker with. I find that it's easy to apply modern day hand history analysis tools to study the competition even though Bovada is "anonymous". We could discuss, lines, betting patterns, exploits, or just review hands. I'd prefer working with someone who uses Holdem Manager or Poker Tracker or something similar.

So far villain seems pretty fishy and relatively passive. Not sure about optimal sizing here. I chose to go big and play for stacks almost solely based on his flop lead which I read as middle/bottom pair from experience. These guys normally get really sticky after flop so I went for the kill.
Tbh I wasn't thinking too much about how I would play my range here and was just focused on ranging him which I put at middle/bottom pair that was likely to station down.
This is on Bovada fwiw - Pokertracker imports as PS
PokerStars - $72+$3.60|10/20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: 91.5 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9) Hero (SB): 58.5 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Td Qh Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB
Flop : (4 BB, 2 players) Qc 9h 4s BB bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, BB calls 4 BB
Turn : (16 BB, 2 players) 3c BB checks, Hero bets 12.5 BB, BB calls 12.5 BB
River : (41 BB, 2 players) 6s BB checks, Hero bets 38 BB and is all-in, BB calls 38 BB

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Which awards are locked in? Which are still up for debate? a glance through the odds and campaigns in each category

Working on a Bet Tracker App side project

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Beating Ignition Zone $1/2 - Help!

New Poker Client

Guys, help me out with the new brand of fish on Bovada.

Information Overload: What are the proper steps for a newbie to improve his game (when he doesn't know where or how to improve)?

Looking for a Bovada Zone Poker study buddy

$72 HUSNG - Top Pair OK Kicker - Too Thin?

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