Wynn Resorts, Limited is a developer, owner and operator of destination casino resorts that integrate accommodations and a range of amenities, including dining outlets, retail offerings, entertainment theaters and meeting complexes. There are 450+ tables and 700+ slot machines in Macau with another 200+ tables and 1,850 slots in Vegas. Plus there's the new outfit coming in Everett, MA!
Recent financials
The figures say it all :(
Metric
2015A
2014A
2013A
2012A
2011A
Revenue
$4.1bn
$5.4bn
$5.6bn
$5.2bn
$5.3bn
EPS
$1.92
$7.18
$7.17
$4.82
$4.88
But if you want to know why? Macau saw sales down 35% in 2015 (to $2.5bn) and Vegas was off a little (down 2% to $1.6bn).
The decline is primarily due to the continued weak gaming environment affecting our Macau Operations, which experienced a year-over-year decrease in casino revenues of 35.5% from $3,586.8 million to $2,312.9 million. Our VIP gaming operations drove the Macau Operations casino revenue reduction, with $57.92 billion in VIP turnover for the year ended December 31, 2015, compared to $108.08 billion for the same period of 2014.
Is that the canary in the coal mine for China? Or just that the wealthy are embracing the new president's austere views?
Competition
Let's focus on Macau first
In addition to Wynn Macau SA, each of Sociedade de Jogos de Macau ("SJM") and Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited are primary concessionaires with Sands China Ltd., Melco Crown and MGM China Holdings Limited operating under subconcessions. There is no limit to the number of casinos each concessionaire or subconcessionaire is permitted to operate, but each facility is subject to government approval. Currently, there are 36 operating casinos in Macau.
Oh dear. Sounds like there's overcapacity...
As of December 31, 2015, there were 32,200 hotel rooms, 5,957 table games and 14,578 slot machines in Macau, compared to 12,978 hotel rooms, 2,762 table games and 6,546 slot machines as of December 31, 2006.
So a 2 to 3 fold increase in 10 years. Now over in Vegas things are decidedly rosier!
During 2015, the average daily room rate increased 2.7% and visitation increased 2.9% to 42.3 million visitors compared to 2014. In addition, Las Vegas Strip resorts experienced 2015 year-over-year increases of 0.6% and 3.3% in occupancy and revenue per available room, respectively.
Companies
Latest Sales
Operating Profit
Return on Equity
Wynn Resorts, Limited
$3,999M
24%
N/A
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
$11,122M
32%
24%
MGM Resorts International
$8,952M
22%
-3%
Red Rock Resorts Inc
$1,382M
34%
33%
Penn National Gaming, Inc
$2,999M
29%
N/A
Churchill Downs, Inc.
$1,279M
21%
12%
So margins are good, but not great... and returns are N/A... why? Because WYNN's been so good at returning capital that there really is no equity left to measure returns on equity. Nice!
Cash / Debt?
Wynn Resorts, Limited has $7,345M of net debt. That is 7.8x its latest operating profit. Ooops. So in effect the aggressive pay-outs come with a catch.
Metric
2015A
2014A
2013A
2012A
2011A
EPS
$1.92
$7.18
$7.17
$4.82
$4.88
Cash distribution per share
$3.00
$6.26
$7.00
$9.50
$6.50
Wall Street thinks?
The professionals on Wall Street have a $102.54 for Wynn Resorts, Limited and their recommendation to clients is Hold. That implies an downside of 6% to their target.
Valuation
At 28x earnings it's hard to disagree with the brokers. Though, am a little surprised they see such good long-term growth prospects. How can I justify WYNN when RRR is on 18x and PENN on 13x?
Wynn Resorts, Limited is forecast to pay a dividend of $2.16 per share, compared with a historic dividend of $2.00 per share. That is a 8% growth. The forecast dividend of $2.16 compares to a forecast EPS of $3.88.
Catalysts
After the horror of 2015, 2016's got back on track and the business is stabilising and EPS is recovering. In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by 8% that compares with a change in the earnings forecasts of +6%. Though on a 1 year view the stock's up 60% with earnings up 20%. On the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers they highlighted that Macau's improving and that they'll keep up returning capital to shareholder. They even spoke of the new casino near Boston, finally getting it's construction permits. But the one thing they didn't do was talk guidance. Seems it's just not something they do! I fear the easy money's been made on WYNN the last 12 months, as folks that believe the earnings would come back got rewarded. So, how do the chips fall from here? Is the next big event, the launch of Boston? Or will we have to bear the capex cost before we see the benefit? What's your gamble? View the archive of Stock a Day posts at its subreddit stockaday. And please send us suggestions on what you'd like us to research next! If you'd like to join the writing team please get in touch. Our writing template is available here if you'd like to use it to pen your own stockAday type posts :). Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. However I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
Wynn Resorts, Limited is a developer, owner and operator of destination casino resorts that integrate accommodations and a range of amenities, including dining outlets, retail offerings, entertainment theaters and meeting complexes. There are 450+ tables and 700+ slot machines in Macau with another 200+ tables and 1,850 slots in Vegas. Plus there's the new outfit coming in Everett, MA!
Recent financials
The figures say it all :(
Metric
2015A
2014A
2013A
2012A
2011A
Revenue
$4.1bn
$5.4bn
$5.6bn
$5.2bn
$5.3bn
EPS
$1.92
$7.18
$7.17
$4.82
$4.88
But if you want to know why? Macau saw sales down 35% in 2015 (to $2.5bn) and Vegas was off a little (down 2% to $1.6bn).
The decline is primarily due to the continued weak gaming environment affecting our Macau Operations, which experienced a year-over-year decrease in casino revenues of 35.5% from $3,586.8 million to $2,312.9 million. Our VIP gaming operations drove the Macau Operations casino revenue reduction, with $57.92 billion in VIP turnover for the year ended December 31, 2015, compared to $108.08 billion for the same period of 2014.
Is that the canary in the coal mine for China? Or just that the wealthy are embracing the new president's austere views?
Competition
Let's focus on Macau first
In addition to Wynn Macau SA, each of Sociedade de Jogos de Macau ("SJM") and Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited are primary concessionaires with Sands China Ltd., Melco Crown and MGM China Holdings Limited operating under subconcessions. There is no limit to the number of casinos each concessionaire or subconcessionaire is permitted to operate, but each facility is subject to government approval. Currently, there are 36 operating casinos in Macau.
Oh dear. Sounds like there's overcapacity...
As of December 31, 2015, there were 32,200 hotel rooms, 5,957 table games and 14,578 slot machines in Macau, compared to 12,978 hotel rooms, 2,762 table games and 6,546 slot machines as of December 31, 2006.
So a 2 to 3 fold increase in 10 years. Now over in Vegas things are decidedly rosier!
During 2015, the average daily room rate increased 2.7% and visitation increased 2.9% to 42.3 million visitors compared to 2014. In addition, Las Vegas Strip resorts experienced 2015 year-over-year increases of 0.6% and 3.3% in occupancy and revenue per available room, respectively.
Companies
Latest Sales
Operating Profit
Return on Equity
Wynn Resorts, Limited
$3,999M
24%
N/A
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
$11,122M
32%
24%
MGM Resorts International
$8,952M
22%
-3%
Red Rock Resorts Inc
$1,382M
34%
33%
Penn National Gaming, Inc
$2,999M
29%
N/A
Churchill Downs, Inc.
$1,279M
21%
12%
So margins are good, but not great... and returns are N/A... why? Because WYNN's been so good at returning capital that there really is no equity left to measure returns on equity. Nice!
Cash / Debt?
Wynn Resorts, Limited has $7,345M of net debt. That is 7.8x its latest operating profit. Ooops. So in effect the aggressive pay-outs come with a catch.
Metric
2015A
2014A
2013A
2012A
2011A
EPS
$1.92
$7.18
$7.17
$4.82
$4.88
Cash distribution per share
$3.00
$6.26
$7.00
$9.50
$6.50
Wall Street thinks?
The professionals on Wall Street have a $102.54 for Wynn Resorts, Limited and their recommendation to clients is Hold. That implies an downside of 6% to their target.
Valuation
At 28x earnings it's hard to disagree with the brokers. Though, am a little surprised they see such good long-term growth prospects. How can I justify WYNN when RRR is on 18x and PENN on 13x?
Wynn Resorts, Limited is forecast to pay a dividend of $2.16 per share, compared with a historic dividend of $2.00 per share. That is a 8% growth. The forecast dividend of $2.16 compares to a forecast EPS of $3.88.
Catalysts
After the horror of 2015, 2016's got back on track and the business is stabilising and EPS is recovering. In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by 8% that compares with a change in the earnings forecasts of +6%. Though on a 1 year view the stock's up 60% with earnings up 20%. On the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers they highlighted that Macau's improving and that they'll keep up returning capital to shareholder. They even spoke of the new casino near Boston, finally getting it's construction permits. But the one thing they didn't do was talk guidance. Seems it's just not something they do! I fear the easy money's been made on WYNN the last 12 months, as folks that believe the earnings would come back got rewarded. So, how do the chips fall from here? Is the next big event, the launch of Boston? Or will we have to bear the capex cost before we see the benefit? What's your gamble? View the archive of Stock a Day posts at its subreddit stockaday. And please send us suggestions on what you'd like us to research next! If you'd like to join the writing team please get in touch. Our writing template is available here if you'd like to use it to pen your own stockAday type posts :). Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. However I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
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